Mail & Guardian (South Africa)
중도 성향
정치
How the IMF squeezes Africa to keep Ukraine’s war economy alive
The World Bank and IMF have exposed the political nature of scarcity. Deficits receive permission when they serve Western strategy.
"SCARCITY" · 총 23건
필터 보기현재 지수
50.3
0 = 부정 우세
50 = 중립
100 = 긍정 우세
최근 7일 기준 86,037건을 분석한 결과, 뉴스 심리지수는 50.2(균형)입니다. 긍정 4,342건(5.0%)·중립 79,567건(92.5%)·부정 2,128건(2.5%)이며, 중립 비중이 뚜렷하게 높습니다. 성향 지수는 종합 14.7(중도 균형)입니다.
The World Bank and IMF have exposed the political nature of scarcity. Deficits receive permission when they serve Western strategy.
As geopolitical headwinds make it tougher for equity investors to make money, Dalal Street’s top voice Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told a gathering of HNI investors at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit on Thursday that there are four specific investment structures which deserve a place in most portfolios right now.Shah’s first recommendation was the Special Investment Fund, or SIF, a structure that marks a meaningful shift in what is available to Indian investors. Shah noted that the mutual fund industry has, until now, been a long-only business but the SIF changes that. These are long-short, absolute return-oriented funds, designed to generate returns regardless of market direction rather than simply riding the equity tide.The second vehicle Shah flagged is performing credit AIFs. His reasoning was grounded in a simple supply-demand observation that for corporate settlements today, capital is not available from banks, mutual funds, or insurance companies.As institutional lenders have stepped back, borrowers are plenty and lenders very few. Amid this imbalance, Shah said the need is real and returns are attractive. Performing credit AIFs, which lend into this gap, are positioned to benefit directly from the scarcity of competing capital.https://youtube.com/shorts/Xa4AcXFg8hA?feature=shareThe third idea was REITs, and here Shah introduced a timing element. Over the last three years, REITs have delivered index-level returns of around 13.5%. But with interest rates rising, he suggested that the next six to nine months may present an opportunity to enter at better prices. Rising rates typically compress REIT valuations in the near term, and Shah framed any such correction as a potential entry point rather than a risk to avoid. Beyond the return potential, he positioned REITs as a portfolio diversification tool as the asset class behaves differently from equities and fixed income, and that is still underrepresented in most Indian investor portfolios.The fourth recommendation addressed global diversification but came with an important caveat. Mutual fund industry limits for overseas investment are currently full, which means the conventional route for Indian investors to access global markets through domestic mutual funds is closed. Shah pointed to Gift City as the workaround. Structures domiciled there allow investment under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, and in his view, these Gift City-based LRS products are the practical path for investors who want global exposure while the mutual fund window remains shut.Across all four — the SIF, performing credit AIFs, REITs, and Gift City products — Shah's underlying argument was the same: in a volatile period, the portfolio needs instruments that can generate positive returns through means other than a rising equity market.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
New AI infrastructure is emerging in India, Brazil, the UAE, and Africa, where local stacks are designed to get around compute scarcity.
Under the shade of recently planted poplars in Afghanistan, village leader Ghulam Ali Poya is proud to see residents rediscover the value of trees after years of wartime deforestation. “There were forests of pistachio trees,” he told AFP, gesturing to the bare mountains that surround Char Bagh’s mud homes. “During the conflicts and the civil war, they were destroyed; no one could stop the logging.” From the 1979 Soviet invasion until the fall of the first Taliban government in the early 2000s, “around 50 per cent of Afghanistan’s forest cover was lost”, said Mohammad Nasir Shalizi, a researcher at North Carolina State University. In eastern Afghanistan, timber smuggling to Pakistan drove massive logging, while in the more arid central and northern “pistachio belt”, residents used wood for heating and cooking. This photograph taken on May 18, 2026 shows Afghan farmer Bas Begum Ahmadi (R) with her husband Abdul Samad Ahmadi standing next to paulownia trees at her family-owned plot. —AFP But in the last two decades, deforestation has slowed “substantially”, Shalizi said. Forest cover has increased 35pc nationwide since 2011, according to the National Statistics and Information Authority, though just 2.5pc of Afghanistan was forested in 2025 and cover is still shrinking in some areas. But experts say communities are working to improve forest cover. Both the US-backed government, in place until 2021, and the current Taliban administration have supported tree-planting campaigns. In Char Bagh, the Aga Khan Development Network funded a kilometre-square grove which includes poplars, paulownias, pomegranates and persimmons. This photograph taken on May 11, 2026 shows pine seedlings at a nursery in Paghman district, Kabul province. Under the shade of recently planted poplars in northeastern Afghanistan. —AFP ‘A model’ The land belongs to farmer Bas Begum Ahmadi, who hopes to sell fruit and homemade jam, but it is also open to the community of 350 families. “Having these trees makes me feel good; my environment is green, and we breathe fresh air,” said the 45-year-old, who tends the trees with her husband to support their four children. This photograph taken on April 20, 2026 shows Afghan municipality workers and residents planting trees next to a park in Charikar district, Parwan province. —AFP This “micro-forest” follows Japanese botanist Akira Miyawaki’s principles: dense planting of mostly local species of varying heights. It is noticeably cooler than the surrounding bare fields and offers twigs for stove fuel and leaves that feed livestock. Micro-forests “restore ecosystems, improve soil fertility, help climate resilience, and support community livelihood,” said Parisa Malikzada, Afghanistan agriculture coordinator for the organisation, which has planted 500 micro-forests in seven provinces. Poya said the forest, next to a river, prevents soil erosion during flooding and offers “a model for people”. This photograph taken on May 18, 2026 shows Afghan farmer Abdul Samad Ahmadi examining a paulownia tree at his family-owned plot, which supports a micro-forest in the Char Bagh area of Doshi district, Baghlan province. —AFP “Everyone comes to have a look, and they’d like to have one too,” he told AFP. In Afghanistan, where many places are hard to reach and the state has limited funds, community-based forest management is the most effective approach to reforestation, experts told AFP. Penalties for tree cutting Afghan authorities have set a goal of planting 200 million trees between 2023 and 2030, relying partly on NGOs, the United Nations and the private sector. “Last year, the target was eight million, but in the end, 17 million were planted,” said Rohullah Amin, head of climate change at the General Environmental Protection Agency, where he has worked for more than a decade. This year’s goal is nine million. This photograph taken on May 11, 2026 shows deodar cedar seedlings at a nursery in Paghman district, Kabul province. Under the shade of recently planted poplars in northeastern Afghanistan. —AFP Challenges include selecting native, climate-adapted species, water scarcity, and livestock damaging saplings. Some forests have struggled with “lack of care or water”, Amin acknowledged, including one site where drought killed 70pc of the planted pines. In some places, tribal councils protect forests and penalise residents who damage them. Elsewhere, “forest management associations” run by elected villagers and farmers have been set up. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has helped them plant five million trees since 2019, according to its climate change chief, Muhammad Safi. Birds coming back The government created nurseries to grow local species in places such as Paghman on state land on Kabul’s outskirts. Head gardener Mahmood Khwajazada carefully tends almond, pine nut and walnut trees, as well as deodar cedars, for distribution nationwide. “Our Prophet said, ’Even if you have only one day left, plant a tree,” he told AFP. This photograph taken on May 11, 2026 shows Afghan farmers tending to a nursery in Paghman district, Kabul province. Under the shade of recently planted poplars in northeastern Afghanistan. —AFP In Charikar, northeastern Afghanistan, where thousands of saplings were planted this year along streets, in parks and on hillsides, the municipality sees “a change” in people’s attitude towards trees. Ahmad Khalid Sabiri, a resident, said he volunteered to help plant “because it’s beneficial for the environment”. Experts said more work is needed to protect the remaining old growth, as well as planting in forests rather than just in urban areas.
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
Kazakhstan is turning to a US government agency for help on water conservation. Experts from the Kazakh water-management agency Kazvodhoz held talks recently with representatives of the US Bureau of Reclamation on ways to reduce water use in the agricultural sector, the Kazakh news outlet InBusiness.kz reported. The US Embassy in Astana facilitated the discussions. "The parties paid particular attention to the implementation of digital water metering and telemetry systems within irrigation networks," Kazakhstan’s Ministry of…
Pakistan is spending heavily on lobbying in the United States. This occurs as the nation faces economic difficulties and water scarcity. The country also deals with rising fuel costs. FARA filings reveal extensive efforts to influence Washington. This includes security, trade, and diplomatic outreach. The lobbying intensified during military tensions with India. Pakistan's army chief made claims about mediation.
Manohar Lal Khattar said rapid urbanisation and the growing scarcity of developable land have made such re-entry provisions increasingly important.
Country: India Source: International Water Management Institute Please refer to the attached file. 1. Context India is the largest democracy in the world and supports 16% and 17% of the world’s human and livestock population, respectively, with just 4.25% and 2% of the world’s freshwater and land resources, respectively. Although India has become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, there is a growing concern that water scarcity will become a binding constraint on its development. A 3.5-fold increase in population during the last six decades has made India one of the most water-scarce countries globally. Water availability is down from 5300 m3 in 1951 to about 1400 m3/ capita/year at present, barely sufficient to sustain economic growth and support human well-being. Water availability is projected to decline to 1340 m3 by 2025 and further still to 1140 m3 by 2050. In 2013, the World Resources Institute declared India among the world’s 50 most water-stressed countries (Luck et al. 2015). The increased water needs for drinking, domestic use, energy, and industrial sectors due to economic development and urbanization are contributing to this decline. However, the main use of freshwater in India is for irrigation, accounting for approximately 80% of the total (Figures 1 and 2). It is expected to further increase to meet the demands of a growing population, as assessed by the National Commission on Integrated Water Resources Development. Tackling the issue of water security in India will entail tackling the following key challenges for the country.
Despite its age, COBOL remains the critical backbone of the global financial system, handling trillions daily. As its original developers retire, a severe shortage of skilled programmers has emerged, leading to astronomical salaries for those who can maintain the ancient code. Young developers are now capitalizing on this scarcity, while institutions explore AI solutions to bridge the gap.
By Dele Sobowale The great Indian leader and liberator made that remark before he was assassinated in 1948 at a time when his country, now divided into at least three nations, suffered from food scarcity worse than Nigeria is experiencing now. Certainly, it can also be said that there are millions of people in Nigeria today, so […] The post Fix food first and fast or forget it… appeared first on Vanguard News.
The Indira Gandhi Canal serves as a critical water supply resource for Jaisalmer and thousands of remote desert villages; yet scarcity persists, with many still relying on ancestral wells as concerns over groundwater depletion and canal maintenance remain
Centrepoint warns young people facing ‘huge scarcity of work opportunities’ after Alan Milburn’s report on crisis The growing number of young people not in work or education is driving more into unstable housing or homelessness, charities have warned. A government-commissioned review into the crisis facing young people in the UK said there could be a 25% rise in young people not in education, employment or training (Neet) to 1.25 million by the early 2030s without intervention. Continue reading...
WASHINGTON, May 30 — The heads of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency warn...
The joint statement highlights that the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war is having a disproportionate effect on lower income countries.
Until Nigeria begins to treat human development as infrastructure with the same seriousness we reserve for roads, oil, and finance, our talent-scarcity debate will keep repeating itself. Not because Nigerians lack potential, but because potential without systems rarely scales. When the CEO of Moniepoint, Tosin Eniolorunda, said his organisation had 500 vacant roles because of […] The post “Moniepoint’s 500 vacancies”: How Nigeria can build quality talent at scale, By Oluwatoyin Ajilore-Chukwuemeka appeared first on Premium Times Nigeria.
LOS ANGELES, May 29 — Fifa yesterday released an extra batch of World Cup tickets, just 14 days before the global...
The US states of New York and New Jersey on Wednesday launched an investigation into FIFA over its ticket sales for the World Cup, with officials alleging the international football association of "fake scarcity and impossibly high prices".
In a joint statement, New Jersey's attorney-general accused the football governing body of having turned "buying a ticket to the World Cup into a gauntlet of confusion, fake scarcity, and impossibly high prices".
THE national wheat sector has once again entered a deep economic and policy crisis, exposing structural weaknesses in agricultural planning, procurement management and food security governance. What initially appeared to be a routine procurement season has evolved into a confrontation between market realities and administrative controls, with farmers, flour millers and policymakers locked in uncertainty. Taking stock of the situation, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz this Thursday ordered strict action against traders who fail to declare their wheat stocks within two weeks — a move reflecting official concern over the size of the 2025-26 crop and fears of rising flour prices in the coming months. The directive comes amid reports of lower wheat production and accelerated speculative buying by traders and investors anticipating future shortages and higher prices. Officials fear undeclared private stocks, combined with weak public reserves, could further fuel inflation. Punjab Agriculture Department says average wheat yield this year remained around 33 maunds per acre, while official assessments indicate Punjab’s production fell short by three to 10 per cent. Sector analysts believe the national crop may be more than 20 per cent below annual requirements — a worrying deficit at a time of volatile global grain markets due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East. Poor procurement planning, rising input costs and inconsistent intervention have intensified uncertainty across Pakistan’s wheat sector Ironically, wheat stocks held by the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation Ltd (Passco) and provincial food departments are considered insufficient to bridge the expected gap. Analysts say delayed procurement decisions, contradictory policies and uncertainty over stock regulations have further destabilised the market. At the centre of the crisis lies a basic contradiction: the government attempted to control a market that had already moved beyond administrative pricing mechanisms. Economists argue the crisis is not simply about “hoarding” but reflects rapid market repricing triggered by anticipated scarcity, weak confidence in procurement policy and expectations of future shortages. Last year, farmers received nearly Rs2,200 per maund for wheat — a price many growers described as financially devastating. The poor returns discouraged cultivation this season, contributing to reduced acreage and lower fertiliser use. Although the Punjab government later announced a procurement price of Rs3,500 per maund this year, farmers at the beginning of the season reportedly received only Rs2,900 to Rs3,100. Pakistan Kissan Ittehad President Khalid Khokhar said the Minimum Support Price mechanism was designed to protect farmers during price crashes, not suppress prices once the market recovered. “The government intervened when wheat prices rose to Rs3,700, instead of when farmers were forced to sell between Rs2,800 and Rs3,200 per maund,” he said. Farmers say the economics of wheat cultivation has deteriorated sharply because of rising input costs. Progressive farmer Amer Hayat Bhandara said DAP fertiliser prices had increased from around Rs12,000 per 50kg bag last year to over Rs16,000 this season, while diesel, electricity, seed and labour costs had also surged. “Regrettably, the government reduced the indicative wheat price from Rs3,900 per 40kg last year to Rs3,500 this year. How can growers sell at this rate?” he asked. Mr Khokhar warned that wheat yields had already fallen by nearly five maunds per acre because many growers reduced fertiliser use amid uncertainty over procurement and pricing. The flour milling industry believes inconsistent regulatory interventions and weak financing arrangements worsened the crisis. Progressive Flour Millers Group’s Khaleeque Arshad said the state entered procurement with a support price that quickly became irrelevant once open-market prices crossed it. Farmers, for the first time in years, found themselves in a relatively strong bargaining position and therefore withheld stocks, expecting higher prices later in the season. However, procurement through aggregators relied heavily on bank financing, and financial institutions were reluctant to assume the risks associated with what many considered an untested procurement model. According to Mr Arshad, only a few of the 11 shortlisted aggregators for procurement secured bank funding, and approvals came too late, after much of the crop had already moved into private storage networks. The Pakistan Flour Mills Association warned that speculative investors unrelated to the wheat trade had entered the market solely for profit-driven stockpiling. PFMA leader Iftikhar Mattoo said uncertainty over raids, transport restrictions and stock seizures discouraged flour mills from maintaining normal inventories. Economists argue that one of the government’s biggest policy mistakes was simultaneously pursuing aggressive procurement targets, restrictive movement controls and administrative intervention at below-market prices. Instead of improving supply flows, such measures reduced market liquidity by creating fear among traders and private buyers. Markets react not only to actual shortages but also to expectations of shortages. Once farmers and traders became convinced that the crop was smaller and procurement weaker than expected, prices adjusted rapidly. Many believe freer wheat movement and transparent private-sector participation carry stronger economic logic. If flour mills are allowed to build inventories openly, wheat ultimately reaches consumers through flour production. However, when traders fear raids or arbitrary restrictions, they hold stocks longer, further tightening supply. Yet government concerns cannot be dismissed entirely. Flour inflation carries serious political and social consequences, particularly for urban populations already struggling with rising living costs. Authorities, therefore, remain under pressure to maintain strategic reserves and prevent uncontrolled price escalation. The problem this year is that reserve levels themselves appear increasingly inadequate. Stakeholders suggest reforms, including earlier crop estimates using satellite and field data, flexible procurement prices linked to market conditions, stronger warehouse financing systems, transparent private-sector participation before harvest, clearer stock-declaration rules without excessive punitive measures, and reduced inter-provincial movement barriers. PFMG’s Majid Abdullah said governments should focus less on administratively suppressing flour prices and more on reducing agricultural input costs to encourage higher production. A bumper crop naturally stabilises flour prices more sustainably than coercive controls. “If wheat and flour prices continue rising under a freer market structure, targeted subsidies for vulnerable populations may prove more effective than broad untargeted interventions that distort incentives across the supply chain.” Published in Dawn, May 24th, 2026