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학술

arXiv 등 학술 논문. CC-BY 라이선스로 자유 재사용 가능 — 출처표시 시 상업 사용 OK.

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Contrastive Conformal Sets

arXiv:2603.26261v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Contrastive learning produces coherent semantic feature embeddings by encouraging positive samples to cluster closely while separating negative samples. However, existing contrastive learning methods lack a principled construction of geometric sets in the semantic feature space with distribution-free guarantees at any user-specified coverage level. We extend conformal prediction to this setting by introducing covering sets equipped with learnable generalized hyper-ball constraints. We propose a method that constructs conformal sets guaranteeing user-specified coverage of positive samples while maximizing negative sample exclusion. We theoretically motivate volume minimization as a proxy for negative exclusion, enabling our approach to operate effectively even when negative pairs are unavailable. The positive inclusion guarantee inherits the distribution-free coverage property of conformal prediction, while negative exclusion is maximized through learned set geometry optimized on a held-out training split. Experiments on simulated and real-world image datasets demonstrate improved inclusion-exclusion trade-offs compared to standard distance-based conformal baselines.

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The Challenger: When Do New Data Sources Justify Switching Machine Learning Models?

arXiv:2512.18390v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Organizations often have an incumbent predictive model in production when new data sources become available. Because historical training data lack the new features, a challenger model must be trained on a small but growing full-feature dataset. We study whether, and when, the organization should switch to the challenger. The decision is statistical and economic: the challenger's predictive performance improves as full-feature data accumulate, but repeated retraining is costly and delays benefits from deployment. We develop a framework linking learning-curve dynamics to model-switching economics. Under a standard power-law learning curve and finite data-collection horizon $T$, the optimal time to train and evaluate the challenger scales as $T^{1/(1+\alpha)}$: learning-curve shape (through its learning speed $\alpha$) is the primary theoretical determinant of when to stop experimenting; costs determine switching profitability. Even without knowing the learning curve, the operational problem is tractable: we show that any algorithm stopping on the $T^{2/3}$ scale and making reliable switch/discard decisions achieves $O(T^{2/3}\sqrt{\log T})$ regret relative to a full-foresight oracle. We propose a sequential evaluation algorithm that uses local learning-curve trends to anticipate improvement, and test it in a real-world credit-scoring study. Even with this local approximation, the algorithm theoretically and empirically achieves near-oracle performance. It is also more stable than greedy sequential evaluation algorithms, where noisy early estimates trigger premature discarding, or simple one-shot evaluation algorithms, which work only when their fixed evaluation time matches the (unknown in practice) theoretical timing scale. Our framework offers a step toward principled model governance when new data sources require costly collection, validation, and deployment.

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Neural Architectures for Amortized Bayesian Inference: Statistical Foundations and Empirical Assessments

arXiv:2601.07944v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural networks and foundation models has now given rise to a new paradigm in statistical modeling, in which Bayesian inference can be amortized through large-scale learned predictors. In amortized inference, substantial computation is required at the beginning to train a neural network, but it can subsequently produce approximate posteriors or predictions at much lower computational cost across a wide range of tasks. While the typical Bayesian inference procedures are computationally expensive due to repeated likelihood calculations and Monte Carlo steps for each new dataset, amortized inference provides a much lower computational cost at deployment. Despite the growing popularity of amortized inference, its statistical interpretation and position within Bayesian inference remain poorly explored. In this paper, we present a statistical perspective on several major neural architectures, including feedforward networks, Deep Sets, and Transformers, and examine how they naturally support amortized Bayesian inference. We explore how these models perform structured approximation and also probabilistic reasoning in ways that yield controlled generalization error throughout a wide range of deployment scenarios, and how these properties can be harnessed for Bayesian computation. Via simulation studies, we evaluate the accuracy, robustness, and uncertainty quantification of amortized inference across varying sample sizes, varying noise distributional families, varying sparsity levels, and multimodality, highlighting its strengths and limitations.

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ROOFS: RObust biOmarker Feature Selection

arXiv:2601.05151v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Feature selection (FS) is essential for biomarker discovery and clinical predictive modeling. Over the past decades, methodological literature on FS has become rich and mature, offering a wide spectrum of algorithmic approaches. However, much of this methodological progress has not fully translated into applied biomedical research. Moreover, challenges inherent in biomedical data, such as high-dimensional feature space, low sample size, multicollinearity, and missing values, make FS non-trivial. To help bridge this gap between methodological development and practical application, we propose ROOFS (RObust biOmarker Feature Selection), a Python package available at https://gitlab.inria.fr/compo/roofs, designed to help researchers in the choice of FS method adapted to their problem. ROOFS benchmarks multiple FS methods on the user's data and generates reports summarizing a comprehensive set of evaluation metrics, including downstream predictive performance estimated using optimism correction, stability, robustness of individual features, and true positive and false positive rates assessed on semi-synthetic data with a simulated outcome. We demonstrate the utility of ROOFS on data from the PIONeeR clinical trial, aimed at identifying predictors of resistance to anti-PD-(L)1 immunotherapy in lung cancer. Of the 34 FS methods gathered in ROOFS, we evaluated 23 in combination with 11 classifiers (253 models) and identified a filter based on the union of Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate-adjusted p-values from t-test and logistic regression as the optimal approach, outperforming other methods including widely used LASSO. We conclude that comprehensive benchmarking with ROOFS has the potential to improve the reproducibility of FS discoveries and increase the translational value of clinical models.

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Skewness-Robust Causal Discovery in Location-Scale Noise Models

arXiv:2511.14441v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: To distinguish Markov equivalent graphs in causal discovery, it is necessary to restrict the structural causal model. Crucially, we need to be able to distinguish cause $X$ from effect $Y$ in bivariate models, that is, distinguish the two graphs $X \to Y$ and $Y \to X$. Location-scale noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect $Y$ is modeled based on the cause $X$ as $Y = f(X) + g(X)N$, form a flexible class of models that is general and identifiable in most cases. Estimating these models for arbitrary noise terms $N$, however, is challenging. Therefore, practical estimators are typically restricted to symmetric distributions, such as the normal distribution. As we showcase in this paper, when $N$ is a skewed random variable, which is likely in real-world domains, the reliability of these approaches decreases. To approach this limitation, we propose SkewD, a likelihood-based algorithm for bivariate causal discovery under LSNMs with skewed noise distributions. SkewD extends the usual normal-distribution framework to the skew-normal setting, enabling reliable inference under symmetric and skewed noise. For parameter estimation, we employ a combination of a heuristic search and an expectation conditional maximization algorithm. We evaluate SkewD on novel synthetically generated datasets with skewed noise as well as established benchmark datasets. Throughout our experiments, SkewD exhibits a strong performance and, in comparison to prior work, remains robust under high skewness.

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Clustering of multivariate tail dependence using conditional methods

arXiv:2510.20424v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The conditional extremes (CE) framework has proven useful for analysing the joint tail behaviour of random vectors. However, when applied across many locations or variables, it can be difficult to interpret or compare the resulting extremal dependence structures, particularly for high dimensional vectors. To address this, we propose a novel clustering method for multivariate extremes using the CE framework. Our approach introduces a closed-form, computationally efficient dissimilarity measure for multivariate tails, based on the skew-geometric Jensen-Shannon divergence, and is applicable in arbitrary dimensions. Applying standard clustering algorithms to a matrix of pairwise distances, we obtain interpretable groups of random vectors with homogeneous tail dependence. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches for clustering bivariate extremes, and uniquely extends to the multivariate setting. In our application to Irish meteorological data, our clustering identifies spatially coherent regions with similar extremal dependence between precipitation and wind speeds.

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Escaping Model Collapse via Synthetic Data Verification: Near-term Improvements and Long-term Convergence

arXiv:2510.16657v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Synthetic data has been increasingly used to train frontier generative models. However, recent studies raise key concerns that iteratively retraining a generative model on its self-generated synthetic data may keep deteriorating model performance, a phenomenon often coined model collapse. In this paper, we investigate ways to modify the synthetic retraining process to avoid model collapse, and even possibly help reverse the trend from collapse to improvement. Our key finding is that by injecting information through an external synthetic data verifier, whether a human or a better model, synthetic retraining will not cause model collapse. Specifically, we situate our theoretical analysis in the fundamental linear regression setting, showing that verifier-guided retraining can yield near-term improvements, but ultimately drives the parameter estimate to the verifier's "knowledge center" in the long run. Our theory further predicts that, unless the verifier is perfectly reliable, these early gains will plateau and may even reverse. Indeed, our experiments across linear regression, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on MNIST, and fining-tuning SmolLM2-135M on the XSUM task confirm these theoretical insights.

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Penalized Copula Mixed Models for Intercompany Loss Reserving and Risk Capital

arXiv:2509.05426v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Intercompany loss reserving provides an opportunity to improve reserve estimation by borrowing information across insurers while accounting for company-level heterogeneity. We propose a penalized generalized copula mixed model for multivariate loss reserving and risk capital analysis using multiple companies' loss triangles. The framework combines mixed-effects marginal models with company-specific copula dependence parameters, allowing residual dependence between lines of business to vary across insurers. Penalization is introduced through an $L_1$ penalty on the fixed effects to stabilize estimation in the tail of the loss triangles, where observations are limited. Estimation is carried out using an iterative two-stage procedure that combines likelihood-based estimation of the marginal mixed models with rank-based copula estimation using residual pseudo-observations. To obtain predictive reserve distributions, we develop a modified bootstrap procedure that accommodates penalized estimation while preserving the dependence structure. Using Schedule P data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, we show that the proposed model provides a more stable decomposition of unpaid losses across lines of business, reduces predictive variability relative to silo and fixed-effect copula benchmarks, and leads to lower risk capital after accounting for diversification. A simulation study further evaluates parameter recovery, sparsity selection, reserve accuracy, and robustness to random-effect misspecification. Overall, the proposed model offers an interpretable and flexible framework for intercompany multivariate reserving and capital assessment.

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Gibbs randomness-compression proposition

arXiv:2505.23869v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A proposition that connects randomness and compression is put forward via Gibbs entropy over set of measurement vectors associated with a compression process. In building this connection, we use a performance of a learning task as a probe of compression, over series of compression cycles within a cascade. The Gibbs entropy at each cycle measures the degree of randomness. Consequently a lossy compression process can be seen as an equivalent to {\it directed randomness} that preserves information content under certain bounds of Gibbs entropy and the performance of the learning task. The term directed means we guide the compression process with set of mathematical rules on how to reduce the model size. We formulate this connection with a theorem using a $\delta$ and $\epsilon$ bounds, and demonstrated a logical proof via comonotonic relationship within a very small decrease in compression ratio and the performance. We have showcase the validity of this proposition with a canonical vision task in deep learning with three different model compression processes as {\it a baseline model}. We use the following, simpler to more complex model compression approaches: (1) random pruning, (2) magnitude pruning, and (3) a more complex compression by using dual tomographic compression, which utilizes compressed sensing in dual fashion. We use remaining weights of deep learning network as a measurement vector where we measure the Gibbs entropy. The proposition is supported with the experimental evidence, resulting in very high correlation between learning performance and the Gibbs entropy over compression ratios for all different compression processes. We show case the idea that there is an inherent computable connection between compression probed by performance degradation and randomness from an entropy measure on the learned model.

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Mixture of Directed Graphical Models for Discrete Spatial Random Fields

arXiv:2406.15700v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current approaches for modeling discrete-valued outcomes associated with spatially-dependent areal units incur computational and theoretical challenges, especially in the Bayesian setting when full posterior inference is desired. As an alternative, we propose a novel statistical modeling framework for this data setting, namely a mixture of directed graphical models (MDGMs). The components of the mixture, directed graphical models, can be represented by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and are computationally quick to evaluate. The DAGs representing the mixture components are selected to correspond to an undirected graphical representation of an assumed spatial contiguity/dependence structure of the areal units, which underlies the specification of traditional modeling approaches for discrete spatial processes such as Markov random fields (MRFs). Notably, the MDGM is not proposed as an approximation to an MRF, but rather as an alternative that provides valid posterior inference while being computationally faster than exact MRF inference and more principled than the pseudo-likelihood approximation (aMRF) commonly used in practice. We introduce the concept of compatibility to show how an undirected graph can be used as a template for the dependencies between areal units to create sets of DAGs which, as a collection, preserve the dependencies represented in the template undirected graph. Lastly, we compare highlighted classes of MDGMs to MRFs and a popular Bayesian MRF model approximation used in high-dimensional settings in a series of simulations and an analysis of ecometrics data collected as part of the Adolescent Health and Development in Context Study.

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Cross-Cluster Weighted Forests

arXiv:2105.07610v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Building trustworthy machine learning algorithms for biological applications requires adapting to data heterogeneity from different sources, batches, distributions, or studies. We propose the 'Cross-Cluster Weighted Forest' (CCWF), an ensembling approach that explicitly leverages heterogeneity in the feature distribution to produce more accurate and more generalizable predictors than the standard Random Forest in cases when data can be naturally clustered. CCWF generalizes the RF architecture to an outer unsupervised layer, supervised subtasks, and ensembling. Specifically it involves unsupervised clustering of the training data, fitting a Random Forest on each cluster, and combining the forests via stacked regression weights that reward cross-cluster generalizability. We provide a theoretical analysis of an analytically tractable forest model showing that cluster-based ensembling is asymptotically more accurate than training a single forest on the full data, with the gain driven by bias reduction. In simulations, we find that CCWF is robust across data-generating regimes and outcome models; furthermore, we explore the influence of data partitioning and ensemble weighting strategies on the benefits of our method. Finally, we apply our approach to cancer molecular profiling and gene expression datasets that are naturally divisible into clusters; in both simulations and real data examples, we illustrate that our approach outperforms classic Random Forest by margins of 30-40%, aligning with our theoretical results. Overall, we show that CCWF provides a statistically grounded prediction algorithm for data spanning multiple domains or sub-populations, a structure common in biological applications.

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GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs

arXiv:2607.14733v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.

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Accelerating A/B-Tests with Counterfactual Estimation: Reducing Variance through Policy Overlap

arXiv:2607.14604v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Online controlled experiments are the gold standard for hypothesis testing in online platforms. Notwithstanding their ubiquity, they are notoriously expensive to run, and issues of variance hamper statistical power in assessing treatment effects. While standard variance reduction techniques leverage model-based control variates to reduce outcome noise, they remain agnostic to potential structural relationships between competing policies. In this work, we identify a critical inefficiency in the standard A/B-testing protocol: when a treatment and control policy agree on an action, the resulting outcome contributes noise but no signal regarding the treatment effect -- unnecessarily inflating confidence intervals. We propose a novel experimental protocol that exploits this policy overlap to accelerate experimentation. The key insight is to frame the randomised treatment assignment mechanism as a meta-policy, and leverage $\Delta$-Off-Policy Estimation methods to obtain unbiased estimates for average treatment effects. We prove analytically that our approach recovers standard A/B-testing practices in the general case, but that its variance scales with the divergence between policies rather than raw outcome variance. Hence, we dominate the standard Difference-in-Means estimator whenever policies have common support, and the improvement is strict whenever the overlap region contributes non-zero residual variance. Empirical results corroborate these theoretical insights -- holding promise for significant impact on the real-world evaluation of recommender systems, information retrieval pipelines, and large language model interfaces.

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Sharp Stability Threshold and Certification for Designing Stable Residual Architectures

arXiv:2607.14576v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose \emph{the sublinear-growth principle} for deep residual architectures -- a sharp stability threshold on the input-magnitude exponent of every residual block's velocity field: $$\|v(x, t)\| \leq c\,\|x\|^q + b, \qquad q \in [0, 1].$$ The threshold $q = 1$ is established via two independent arguments. Classical ODE theory gives a global forward flow on $[0, T]$ at $q \le 1$ and exhibits divergent velocity fields at any $q > 1$. The optimal-control analysis, via the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, sharpens this to a selection statement: the training optimum is bang-bang on the boundary of the admissible class, so the optimum at $q > 1$ blows up while the optimum at $q \le 1$ is safe by construction. The exponent criterion $q \le 1$ is thereby a necessary and sufficient condition for stable training. It clarifies architectural placements that ensure the stability of training and inference, explaining, for instance, the stabilizing role of layer normalization. The sublinear-growth velocity fields form \emph{the right function space} on which forward dynamics, adjoint sensitivity, and architectural composition are all well-controlled. An arithmetic of input-magnitude exponents under the five operations that build residual blocks enables efficient certification of $q_k \le 1$ at the level of architectural primitives, in place of ad hoc trial and error in the search for stable neural architectural designs. A parameter-free modification reduces the supercritical Mamba block from $q = 5$ to $q = 1$ without layer normalization, demonstrating this point. Experiments on Mamba and PatchTST confirm that the $q \le 1$ variants train stably: the criterion is the input-magnitude exponent, not the presence of a normalization layer.

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Probabilistic Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Estimating Heterogeneous Elastic Properties from Low-Resolution and Noisy Displacement Data

arXiv:2607.14563v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Estimating spatially heterogeneous elastic properties from low-resolution displacement measurements is a severely ill-posed inverse elasticity problem because low resolution obscures spatial details needed to distinguish heterogeneous property variations, and small measurement perturbations or fitting errors are amplified through inverse estimation. Existing inverse methods often rely on high-fidelity observations and manually prespecified loss weights, limiting their adaptability and making them sensitive to noise and resolution degradation. We propose a Probabilistic Inverse Elasticity Physics-Informed Neural Network (PIE-PINN) framework for robust estimation of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio from noisy, low-resolution displacement data. PIE-PINN models displacement observation, strain-discrepancy, and equilibrium residuals using Laplace distributions within a unified probabilistic model. To improve robustness, the framework combines a B-spline-guided displacement network with a hierarchical half-Cauchy model for displacement residual scales. The B-spline provides a smooth global representation of the displacement field, while the neural network correction captures local variations. The hierarchical scale model adaptively downweights severe displacement fitting errors, enabling more robust recovery of the latent mean displacement field. An alternating maximum-likelihood training strategy updates the mean through weighted residual minimization and updates the scales to adjust the loss weights. Systematic case studies across varying noise levels and observation resolutions demonstrate the robustness of PIE-PINN.

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Learning Who to Treat When Treatment is Missing

arXiv:2607.14346v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Policy learning methods are increasingly used to inform treatment allocation under budget constraints. Most proposed methods assume complete treatment data, yet applications frequently suffer from missingness that can bias estimates and lead to suboptimal policies. We address this gap by extending efficient estimators for average treatment effect (ATE) estimation to policy value and conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under missing at random (MAR) and missing completely conditionally at random (MCCAR) treatment data. Through asymptotic efficiency analysis, we prove that the MAR estimator, which leverages partially-observed units, is both valid and more efficient than the MCCAR estimator when MCCAR assumptions hold. This result provides formal justification for preferring MAR-based estimation in policy learning under both missing data settings. Our comprehensive experiments using synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets confirm that correctly specifying the missingness mechanism is crucial: misspecified estimators remain biased regardless of sample size, while our estimators achieve near-oracle performance when assumptions are satisfied. Our work provides practitioners with theoretically grounded, empirically validated tools for robust policy learning in the presence of missing treatment data.

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A Temporal Machine Learning-Based Time-to-Event Model for Predicting ALS Progression and Healthcare Utilization

arXiv:2607.14190v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and heterogeneous neurodegenerative disease in which predicting clinically meaningful milestones, such as assistive device use, remains challenging. We developed a time-to-event, digital-twin-inspired framework that integrates longitudinal ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) trajectories with survival modeling to support individualized prediction of functional decline and assistive device utilization. We constructed a harmonized longitudinal dataset by integrating diagnosis records, ALSFRS-R assessments, activities of daily living, and demographic information, followed by preprocessing to ensure data quality, temporal alignment, and cohort consistency. Correlation-based clustering identified coherent functional domains spanning bulbar, upper limb, axial, lower limb, and respiratory systems. Generalized additive mixed models characterized nonlinear, domain-specific functional decline across all domains. In addition, a temporal machine learning model was developed to predict longitudinal functional decline and capture stage-dependent disease progression. Cox proportional hazards modeling further identified lower limb function, particularly walking and stair climbing, as the strongest predictors of earlier wheelchair access. Building on these results, we implemented a digital twin-inspired temporal machine learning-based time-to-event (TTE) model that generates individualized survival curves and dynamically predicts wheelchair-free survival. This framework provides a scalable, interpretable, and clinically actionable approach for linking ALS progression with personalized decision support, with applications in proactive care planning, clinical trial stratification, and precision medicine.

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PiVoT: A Variational Solution for Real-time Large-scale Multi-object Detection and Tracking under Heavy Clutter

arXiv:2607.13891v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-object detection and tracking from noisy point clouds remain challenging in many data-scarce radar applications. Current Bayesian trackers based on Poisson measurement models offer a training-free solution but struggle to achieve accuracy and efficiency under severe clutter, large object populations, and full-resolution Doppler point clouds. We address this with PiVoT, a fast, clutter-resilient multi-object tracker for both positional and Doppler measurements. PiVoT performs end-to-end detection and tracking of a large and time-varying number of objects without external clustering or detectors, through joint inference of object states, shapes, existence probabilities, data association, and measurement rates. Its efficiency is driven by several variational inference innovations, such as theoretically justified birth pruning, quadratic-to-linear complexity reductions for exact updates, and a computationally efficient Doppler Poisson model. Experiments show that PiVoT substantially outperforms existing Bayesian trackers in challenging scenes, while also demonstrating exceptional scalability to a thousand objects, robustness to clutter visually inseparable from objects, and real-time operation on full-scale modern automotive radar datasets, where it attains performance comparable to a deep-learning detection benchmark as a training-free joint detector and tracker.

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Frequency Selection in Bayesian Spectral Modeling of Time Series Data with Applications to Wearable Device Measurements

arXiv:2607.15157v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper introduces a Bayesian spike-and-slab framework for spectral analysis of time series data. The proposed method combines frequency selection and dimensionality reduction with a refined grid of candidate frequencies, enabling high-resolution recovery of oscillatory components while promoting sparsity through a structured spike-and-slab prior. A stochastic search algorithm efficiently explores the posterior space, yielding posterior inclusion probabilities that quantify the relevance of each frequency. We extend the framework to multivariate signals via a hierarchical prior on frequency inclusion patterns, allowing the model to capture both shared and component-specific rhythms across multiple time series. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the method's robustness and superior performance in frequency estimation and spectral power reconstruction compared to existing approaches. Applied to actigraphy data from individuals with partial-onset seizures, the univariate model identifies clinically relevant circadian and ultradian rhythms. In a second application, for the joint analysis of physical activity and skin temperature from a healthy individual, the multivariate model reveals partially overlapping rhythmic components consistent with known physiological coupling. This work establishes a powerful and interpretable approach to spectral analysis, with broad applicability to wearable data, chronobiology, and personalized health monitoring.

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cGAP: Generalized Association Plots with HOMALS-Guided Heatmaps for Visualization of High-Dimensional Categorical Data

arXiv:2607.15018v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-dimensional categorical data arise in genetics, biomedicine, and the social sciences, yet visualization tools for such data remain far less developed than those for continuous variables. Existing methods either scale poorly, rely heavily on low-dimensional displays detached from the original data matrix, or prioritize predictive accuracy over interpretability. To address this gap, we introduce categorical Generalized Association Plots (cGAP), a visualization framework for nominal, ordinal, and binary data that preserves the original data matrix while augmenting it with interpretable geometric structure. cGAP uses Homogeneity Analysis (HOMALS) to embed subjects and category levels in a three-dimensional Euclidean space and maps the embedding to red-green-blue coordinates so that similar patterns receive similar colors. The framework integrates three coordinated views: a HOMALS-guided heatmap of the raw data matrix, a subject proximity matrix, and a variable proximity matrix. Seriation algorithms are then used to reorder rows and columns to reveal coherent clusters, outliers, and local-to-global structure. We also derive barycentric traceability, projection-distortion, and contrast-preservation properties that clarify how embedding geometry is transferred to the display. We demonstrate the versatility of cGAP through applications to student-animal classification data, mammalian dentition profiles, mushroom records from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, and the Clusters of Orthologous Genes database. These examples show that cGAP supports transparent exploratory analysis by maintaining traceability between derived visual structure and the original categorical observations. cGAP provides a full-matrix, heatmap-based visualization environment for investigating complex categorical datasets across scientific domains.

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