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Too many single family homes for too few families; Vacancy, depreciation looms: ABN Amro
Stop building single-family homes, ABN Amro advises.
"DEPRECIATION" · 총 18건
필터 보기현재 지수
50.3
0 = 부정 우세
50 = 중립
100 = 긍정 우세
최근 7일 기준 82,661건을 분석한 결과, 뉴스 심리지수는 50.3(균형)입니다. 긍정 4,284건(5.2%)·중립 76,271건(92.3%)·부정 2,106건(2.5%)이며, 중립 비중이 뚜렷하게 높습니다. 성향 지수는 종합 14.9(중도 균형)입니다.
Stop building single-family homes, ABN Amro advises.
Shares of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone rebounded after a two-session decline, rising more than 1% to Rs 1,812 on Friday after Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating on the stock. The brokerage also raised the stock's target price to Rs 1,870. Goldman Sachs highlighted that cargo volumes in May 2026 rose 16% year-on-year to 48.3 million tonnes, led by a 33% increase in liquid cargo and a 17% rise in container volumes. Quarter-to-date cargo volumes stood at 91.4 million tonnes, up 15% from a year ago and ahead of analyst expectations.Goldman Sachs noted that thermal coal volumes are witnessing a recovery and are likely to remain robust during the summer months. However, logistics rail volumes in May declined 19% year-on-year to 48,170 container units.The brokerage identified key growth drivers as higher Tata Power-linked coal volumes at Mundra, the ramp-up of operations at the Vizhinjam transhipment hub, growth in liquid cargo at Mundra, and expansion of multimodal logistics parks.Reflecting the strong volume momentum and improving return on capital employed (ROCE), Goldman Sachs has revised its earnings estimates upward and increased its target price for the stock.Adani Ports Q4 snapshotAdani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,329 crore for the March-ended quarter, compared to Rs 3,014 crore in the year-ago period, marking a 10% increase. The profit after tax (PAT) is attributable to equity holders of the parent.India's largest port operator posted revenue growth of 26% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 10,737 crore in Q4FY26, as against Rs 8,488 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.The company's Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) in the quarter under review stood at Rs 6,02 crore, up 20% from Rs 5,006 crore reported in Q4FY25.Also read: Rajesh Exports shares hit 5% lower circuit for 2nd day; firm cites 'communication gap' after Sebi order For the full financial year, PAT jumped 16% to Rs 12,782 crore compared to Rs 11,061 crore in FY25, while the topline stood at Rs 38,736 crore for FY26 versus Rs 31,079 crore in FY25, recording a 25% growth. EBITDA saw a 20% YoY uptick at Rs 22,851 crore.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank are inching close to the target of $18 billion for current fiscal year (FY26), but a widening trade deficit threatens to erase the growth in reserves and remittances. Data issued by the central bank on Thursday showed that the forex reserves increased by $43 million to $17.2bn during the week ending on May 29. Financial experts see the improvement in reserves as a good sign, but at the same time they fear the widening trade imbalance would lead to a large current account deficit this fiscal year. They also pointed out that substantial payments to foreign creditors are due this month. SBP forex reserves are nearing their annual target, but large payments are also due this month June which means still a month is available to the SBP to catch the target of $18bn. The State Bank has been purchasing dollars from the inter-bank market to improve reserves and make external payments, while the exchange rate is being managed through a steady uptick in the rupee’s value against the dollar. “More important is the managed exchange rate, which may burst after June after large payments are made before the end of the fiscal year on June 30,” said Atif Ahmed, a currency expert. He added that since the dollar has been appreciating against all regional currencies except Pakistan’s, it is obvious the rupee is under depreciation pressure. According to Atif, the purchase of dollars from the inter-bank market by SBP makes no difference to the dollar rates since the price mechanism in banking market does not exist anymore. “The rate is determined by the central bank.” Alarming deficit Financial experts said the growing trade deficit would affect both the exchange rate and the current account deficit. The current account had a surplus of $1.8bn in FY25. “The trade deficit for the 11 months of FY26 has soared to $35bn, which is seen as alarming by economic managers of the country. It will definitely take the current account deficit to an unexpected level, putting pressure on the rupee to depreciate against the dollar,” said a financial expert. He recalled that the Indian rupee fell from Rs86 to Rs95 in a year. The trade deficit rose by 17.48pc to $34.76bn in July-May 2025-26, up from $29.58bn over the corresponding period last year: a rise of $5.18bn. Currency dealers have already predicted a slowdown in remittances, which means the target of $41bn would be hard to achieve in FY26. “The remittances depend upon the situation in Middle East as more than 50 per cent remittances come from this region,” said the expert. He said the ministry of finance is responsible for such a large trade deficit and would face a tough time in FY27 with higher current account deficit,” he added. The import bill went up to $62.66bn, mainly due to an increase in import of luxury items and foodgrain. The country’s total foreign exchange reserves at the end of last month were $22.63bn, including $5.44bn held by commercial banks. Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2026
Deputy Minister of Industry Faisol Riza said the depreciation of the rupiah is unlikely to significantly affect ...
The rupiah's depreciation beyond Rp18,000 per US dollar has not disrupted the government's ability to service ...
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
Shares of Titagarh Rail Systems gained nearly 3% to hit the day's high of Rs 857 on the BSE on Wednesday after Wall Street major Jefferies raised the target price to Rs 990 from Rs 810, implying an upside of 19% from current market levels.With a Buy rating, the international brokerage raised the target by 23%. Jefferies said Titagarh Rail Systems delivered a stronger-than-expected quarter, and improving execution is likely to drive a re-rating of the stock going forward. The brokerage believes Titagarh is well-positioned to benefit from rising demand for passenger and metro coaches, supported by government-led infrastructure initiatives. It estimates a 44% EPS CAGR over FY26-30 and expects the company's strong order book in the passenger segment to provide healthy earnings visibility.Titagarh delivered 64 coaches in FY26, ahead of Jefferies' estimate of 60 coaches. While this fell short of the management's earlier guidance of 100-120 coaches, the shortfall was largely anticipated due to execution delays in the first half of FY26.Management has reiterated confidence in delivering 200-220 coaches in FY27, compared with Jefferies' estimate of 193 coaches, citing the resolution of initial execution challenges. On the flagship Vande Bharat project, the company expects to deliver two trains in FY27, in line with Jefferies' projections, with the prototype scheduled for supply in the December 2026 quarter.Margins in the March quarter came in significantly ahead of expectations at 19%, compared with Jefferies' estimate of 12%, supported by a sharp increase in execution of the Bengaluru Metro project, which is being executed as a job contract. Management has guided for margins of around 12% in the near term, with a gradual improvement towards 15% as the company advances up the technology value chain.Rail wagon sales declined 29% year-on-year due to supply-side constraints. While Jefferies expects wagon sales to fall a further 5% in FY27, it forecasts a largely stable trajectory over FY27-30, supported by its estimate that Indian Railways' cargo volumes could reach around 3 billion tonnes by FY35, compared with the FY30 target.The company currently has an order book of 6,500 wagons, providing visibility for about 97% of Jefferies' FY27 wagon sales estimates, although visibility beyond FY27 remains limited. Separately, Titagarh has secured 28% capital assistance for its brownfield shipbuilding expansion plans and is evaluating technology partnerships and potential joint ventures with shipyards.The brokerage noted that a recent report by Live Mint indicated Indian Railways is considering an order for 1 lakh wagons, which could significantly improve earnings visibility for wagon manufacturers. The valuation assigns 30x March 2028 estimated EPS to the core business, up from 25x previously, reflecting positive developments around potential wagon orders and the upcoming wheel joint venture, which it values at 2.5x its investment value. Key risks to the outlook include delays in wagon orders or wheel supplies from Indian Railways, as well as weaker-than-expected execution.Titagarh Rail Q4 snapshotTitagarh Rail reported a net profit for the quarter at Rs 53.96 crore, compared to a net loss of Rs 122.4 crore that the company reported last year.Titagarh Rail's revenue in the March quarter declined by 12.9% to Rs 875.4 crore from Rs 1,005.6 crore in the previous year.The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) declined 4.4% to Rs 97.3 crore in the March quarter from Rs 96.56 crore last year, while margins stood at 11% from 10% last year. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Mumbai: Domestic IT stocks extended rally for the third straight session on Tuesday, driving the Nifty IT index to its biggest single-day gain in a year. Analysts said the index's chart structure remains constructive, signalling continued positive momentum in the near term.The Nifty IT index ended 4.2% higher at 31,116.6 on Tuesday, its highest gains since May 2025. The index is up 7.6% in the past three sessions, against Nifty 50's fall of 1.8%. TCS was the top gainer on Tuesday, up 6.7%, followed by Infosys, HCL Technologies and LTM, which were up 4-6% each."Indian IT stocks continue to extend gains, supported by improving global software sentiment and growing evidence that enterprise AI adoption is expanding technology spending opportunities rather than disrupting incumbent service providers," said Kunal Bajaj, research analyst at Choice Institutional Equities.Bajaj said other factors like rupee depreciation, strong orderbook and improving outlook for discretionary tech spending, are supporting the current rally in IT stocks.131473558IT stocks look strong on technical charts too. "The Nifty IT index has formed a bullish hammer pattern on the monthly chart, signalling a trend reversal," said Ruchit Jain, vice-president, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Within the sector, recent moves suggest a mix of short covering in stocks such as TCS and HCL Tech, along with fresh long build-up in Infosys and Coforge over the past three sessions." Despite the recent rebound, domestic IT stocks have underperformed the broader market in 2026, with the Nifty IT index declining 17.9% so far this year against a 10.1% fall in Nifty 50.Jain expects the IT benchmark's up move to extend towards 32,000-32,100, near its April highs. According to Bajaj, tier-2 IT firms have historically gained market share during tech transitions due to their agility. "With valuation premiums cooling, we see better relative risk-reward in Coforge, Persistent Systems and Happiest Minds. Among the tier-one companies, we like Infosys and Tech Mahindra," he said.
Shares of Zee Entertainment Enterprises jumped 7% on Monday, extending gains for the fifth consecutive session, with its market cap swelling by over Rs 1,662 crore during the gaining streak.The stock has surged 20% in the last five sessions to hit a nearly six-month high of Rs 99.44 apiece on Monday morning. The company’s market capitalisation increased to Rs 9,551 crore.What's driving the rally in Zee's share price?The recent surge comes amid buzz over the company nearing a deal to bag India media rights for 2026 FIFA World Cup after Reliance Industries’ JioStar exited the race. In an exchange filing released last week, Zee confirmed it is in talks with Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) to broadcast and stream the World Cup in India as part of its efforts to “build a competitive sports content offering.”The 2026 FIFA World Cup will run from June 11 to July 19 in the United States, Canada and Mexico. People familiar with the matter told The Economic Times that JioStar had made a final offer of about $15 million before backing out, citing the narrow window between the signing of the agreement and the start of the tournament, leaving limited time for monetisation.Notably, Zee had exited sports broadcasting in 2016 after selling Ten Sports to Sony Pictures Networks India for $385 million. Zee re-entered sports in 2021 by acquiring the long-term global media rights for the International League T20 (ILT20) in a deal estimated at $100-150 million, signalling its intent to rebuild a sports portfolio.The broadcaster is now sharpening its focus on sports with plans to launch four channels: Unite8 Sports 1 and Unite8 Sports 1 HD in Hindi, and Unite8 Sports 2 and Unite8 Sports 2 HD in English.Zee share priceZee shares have surged over 20% in one week and 11% in one month. The stock has gained around 10% in 2026 so far. In the longer term, however, the stock declined nearly 24% in one year, over 48% in three years and 53% in five years.The stock currently has a P/E ratio of more than 32x.Zee earnings snapshotEarlier in May, Zee Entertainment Enterprises reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 104 crore for the January-March quarter of FY26, as against a net profit of Rs 188 crore in the year-ago period. The media & entertainment company's operating revenue declined 7% to Rs 2,025 crore in Q4 FY26, compared to Rs 2,184 crore posted by the company in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) loss stood at Rs 269 crore versus Rs 285 crore in Q4 FY25 and Rs 240 crore in Q3 FY26. The adjusted EBITDA declined 51% YoY and 42% QoQ.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of budget carrier IndiGo, rallied as much as 5% to their day's high of Rs 4,634 on the NSE on Monday despite reporting a net loss of Rs 2,536 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, compared with a net profit of Rs 3,067 crore in the corresponding period last year. Revenue from operations, however, edged up 1% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 22,438 crore.The airline said its operational performance during the quarter was affected by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), increased 3.4% YoY to 43.6 billion.Passenger traffic stood at 31.6 million during the quarter, marking a marginal decline of 1.1% from a year earlier. EBITDAR, excluding foreign exchange impact, stood at Rs 6,435 crore, down from Rs 6,862 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The EBITDAR margin narrowed to 28.7% from 31%.IndiGo shares: Should you buy, sell or hold?Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 5,200, implying an upside of 18% from current levels. The Wall Street major said the airline did not provide full-year FY27 capacity guidance, while elevated costs continue to remain an overhang. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the broader Indian aviation sector, barring IndiGo, continues to face weak profitability and balance sheet stress. The brokerage has retained its valuation at 10x FY28 estimated EV/EBITDAR.Jefferies maintained its Buy rating but lowered its target price to Rs 5,380 (22% upside) from Rs 5,500. The brokerage said the airline delivered a weak but largely in-line performance in the fourth quarter and expects the near-term outlook to remain challenging amid elevated cost pressures. For the first quarter, IndiGo has guided for mid-teen growth in unit revenue, largely driven by higher pricing, with demand so far remaining resilient enough to absorb part of the cost increases. Jefferies believes operating conditions will remain difficult in the near term, though the environment is likely to be even more challenging for peers.Motilal Oswal maintained its Buy rating on IndiGo with a target price of Rs 5,600, implying an upside potential of 27%. The brokerage said that despite near-term challenges from Middle East airspace disruptions, elevated fuel prices, rupee depreciation and higher damp-lease exposure, it remains positive on the airline's long-term growth strategy.It believes IndiGo is well positioned to benefit from India's strong domestic aviation demand and steadily expanding international network. Looking ahead, Motilal Oswal expects a gradual normalisation of international operations, a reduction in Pratt & Whitney-related aircraft groundings, ongoing fleet additions, and the deployment of A321XLR aircraft on international routes to support an earnings recovery.JM Financial maintained its Add rating with a target price of Rs 5,000, noting that capacity growth remained subdued due to the Middle East conflict. IndiGo reported ASK growth of 3.4% year-on-year to 43.6 billion in Q4FY26 and has guided for 3-4% ASK growth in Q1FY27, with most of the increase expected to come from domestic metro and leisure routes.The brokerage expects this, coupled with mid-teen PRASK growth on a favourable base, to support a recovery in unit economics. Capacity was significantly impacted by the West Asia conflict, with around 18% of total capacity affected and more than 160 daily international flights disrupted in March 2026. However, the airline indicated that capacity recovered to around two-thirds of normal levels in May and expects full normalisation by the end of June. JM Financial also highlighted that the number of grounded aircraft remains in the 40s but is likely to decline to the 30s by year-end, which could provide a meaningful boost to both capacity and costs.Elara Capital maintained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 6,020, arguing that the stock's roughly 25% decline over the past six months due to flight disruptions, the Middle East conflict, higher crude oil prices and rupee weakness has created an attractive opportunity. The brokerage believes the market is overly focused on near-term challenges while overlooking the benefits of a prolonged industry-wide capacity shortage.It highlighted that domestic advance fares are up around 17% year-on-year, while international advance fares have risen nearly 40%. Elara also noted that IndiGo reported an adjusted profit of Rs 25 billion in Q4FY26 despite a non-cash foreign exchange loss of Rs 48 billion. Additionally, competitor capacity reductions have been deeper than IndiGo's, supporting the airline's market share gains and pricing power. While the brokerage has lowered its FY27 EBITDA estimate by 7% to account for higher crude oil and rupee assumptions, its FY28 estimates remain broadly unchanged.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Indian stock market witnessed a sharp selloff on Friday afternoon, with the Sensex and Nifty falling over 1% as passive fund flows linked to the MSCI index reshuffle weighed on sentiment.Sensex dropped over 1,092 points to 74,776 while Nifty 50 crashed nearly 359 points to 23,547. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, jumped around 8% to 16.18. The sharp losses wiped off nearly Rs 6 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of all companies listed on BSE, pulling it down to Rs 465 lakh crore.Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:Nifty rollover for May expiry came in below both the three-month and six-month averages. Does this suggest traders are turning cautious near higher levels, or is it simply profit-booking after the recent recovery?In the month of May, the benchmark index Nifty traded within a narrow range of 1219 points, marking its smallest monthly range since December 2025. The rollover in the May series also came below the prior month and 3-month average. Notably, a majority of the trading sessions during the month witnessed either an upside or downside gap at the opening, followed by range-bound price action throughout the day. As a result, opportunities for intraday and short-term traders remained limited despite the frequent gap openings. But what made this phase even more unusual was the message hidden within the broader monthly price structure.On the monthly chart, Nifty has formed a bearish candle with shadows on either side, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Zooming into the final week of May, the index continued to trade within a narrow range for most of the week before witnessing a sharp decline during the final hour of Friday's trading session, which tilted the balance in favour of the bears. While the market remained range-bound for most of the week, the late sell-off has raised an important question—was this merely profit booking or the beginning of a larger directional move?From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to trade below all its key moving averages. More importantly, these moving averages have flattened out, indicating the absence of a strong trend. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone as per the RSI Range Shift framework, while the daily Stochastic oscillator is also moving within a narrow band. Adding to this, the trend strength indicator, Daily ADX, is placed at near 15 level and continues to decline, suggesting a lack of directional momentum in the index. While these indicators point towards a lack of trend, Friday's late sell-off has injected fresh uncertainty into the market setup.Talking about crucial levels, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,750-23,800 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle for the index. On the downside, the zone of 23,300-23,250 remains a crucial support area. A breach below 23,250 could intensify selling pressure and open the doors for a decline towards the psychologically important 23,000 mark. With the index approaching key support levels, the market's next move could set the tone for the coming weeks.Bank Nifty rollover saw a sharper decline and futures data indicates short build-up despite price weakness. Are banking stocks likely to remain drags on the market in the June series?In the month of May, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty traded within a narrow range of 3,550 points, marking its tightest monthly range since January 2026. On the monthly timeframe, it has formed a High Wave candle, reflecting market indecisiveness.During the past week, the index witnessed a strong upmove in the first half; however, it failed to sustain above the 55,500 level and subsequently underwent a sharp correction. This led to the formation of a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.At present, the index is trading below its key moving averages, which are trending downward, suggesting a weak bias. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone as per the RSI range shift rules, indicating lack of clear momentum.Going ahead, the 53,500–53,400 zone is expected to act as an important support for the index. A breach below 53,400 could trigger further downside, with the next key support placed around 52,700. On the upside, the 50-day EMA zone of 55,300–55,200 is likely to act as a crucial hurdle.FIIs reduced nearly 9,800 index shorts while also adding fresh longs. Do you see this as the beginning of a more constructive stance from foreign investors, or is positioning still defensive overall?There were clear signs of short covering in Index futures between 21st May and 27th May, with FII net Index futures shorts reducing sharply from 2,31,190 contracts to 1,63,012 contracts. This also led to the long-short ratio improving from 11.80% to 16.14%, indicating a relatively constructive shift in positioning. On Friday, massive short positions were built up leading to net index futures short contracts once again rising to 2,01,309 and the long short ratio dipping to 11.98%. Similar phases of short covering in the past were quickly followed by aggressive selling, causing bullish expectations to fade rapidly. This pattern has persisted for quite some time and is likely to continue until there is greater clarity on the US-Iran deal, a meaningful fall in the Dollar Index (DXY), stability in crude oil prices, and depreciation in the dollar against the rupee. Until these external factors stabilize, FII sentiment is likely to remain cautious rather than decisively bullish.What are key levels to watch out for in June series? What triggers could push Nifty decisively beyond in either direction?Talking about crucial levels, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,750-23,800 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle for the index. On the downside, the zone of 23,300-23,250 remains a crucial support area. A breach below 23,250 could intensify selling pressure and open the doors for a decline towards the psychologically important 23,000 mark. With the index approaching key support levels, the market's next move could set the tone for the coming weeks.IT continues to trade near 52-week lows with elevated open interest and negative carry. Is the sector still witnessing aggressive short positions, and what would it take for sentiment to improve meaningfully?The Nifty IT Index has rebounded nearly 8% from its 14th May low of 27,078. However, over the last seven sessions, the Index has remained range-bound between 29,747 and 28,678, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. The RSI remains flat, while a subdued ADX reflects low volatility and absence of trend strength. Additionally, the MACD continues to trade below both the zero line and signal line, highlighting weak underlying momentum. On the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), the Index has shifted from the lagging to the improving quadrant, suggesting early signs of momentum recovery, though relative strength remains limited. The Index continues to trade below its 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, keeping the near-term trend weak. The 29,900–30,000 zone remains a crucial resistance area, and a decisive breakout above this level could trigger a stronger pullback rally in the IT pack.Given that the broader market structure remains range-bound with elevated volatility, should traders focus more on stock-specific opportunities rather than aggressive index directional bets in the June series?With the broader market remaining range-bound amid elevated volatility, traders are likely to find better opportunities in stock-specific setups rather than aggressive directional bets on the Index in the June series. The rising ratio line in the Midcap and Smallcap indices relative to Nifty highlights continued outperformance in the broader market space. Despite the strong bearish candle on 29th May, the overall market structure remains bullish, with no concrete signs of a major reversal yet. Currently, strength is visible in sectors such as private banks, PSU banks, financial services, and select midcap IT names. Meanwhile, the Index continues to react sharply to geopolitical developments, leading to frequent gap-ups and gap-downs that reduce trading clarity. In such an environment, strong price-action structures backed by robust technicals in trending sectors are likely to outperform across market conditions.What stocks are you looking out for?For the short term, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank, Nuvama Wealth Management, RR Kabel, Syrma SGS Technology, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS), and Minda Corporation are looking attractive based on their current market setup.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
AFGHANISTAN, Iran and Pakistan are among the few states that formally identify themselves as Islamic republics or emirates. This article examines the extent to which they have adhered to the Islamic principles of efficiency, equity and social justice and how successfully they have promoted inclusive growth, human welfare and shared prosperity in keeping with Islam’s ethical foundations. Afghanistan: Afghanistan has undergone political transitions — from monarchy to communist rule, from the mujahideen to Taliban control, then to Western-backed governments, and finally back to the Taliban. Ironically, the regimes claiming to establish an Islamic emirate and enforce Islamic governance have inflicted greater damage on Afghanistan’s socioeconomic development than many previous governments. Large-scale migration of educated professionals, managers, academics and entrepreneurs has deprived Afghanistan of the human capital needed to run a modern economy. Equally harmful is the ban on girls’ education and restrictions on women’s labour participation, entrenching deep inequities and undermining long-term development prospects. Such policies project a distorted image of Islam to the world and reinforce Islamophobic narratives that contradict Islam’s stress on knowledge, justice and human dignity. Afghanistan’s per capita income is around $420, placing it among the world’s poorest countries. Poverty and food insecurity are widespread. Gains achieved between 2002 and 2021 in literacy, school enrolment and health indicators have stagnated or been reversed. The literacy rate is only 37 per cent — female literacy is around 27pc. Fertility remains high — nearly five children per woman. The economy depends heavily on imports financed through humanitarian aid and donor support. Although there’s better security, this hasn’t translated into sustained economic activity or investment. Pakistan was once Afghanistan’s principal trading partner for transit trade and bilateral commerce. However, tensions and border closures have disrupted trade and damaged livelihoods for thousands of Afghans in transport, retail and cross-border business. Safe havens allegedly provided to the TTP despite talks and mediation efforts have weakened Islamic solidarity and regional cooperation. Iran: The 1979 Revolution overthrew the monarchy and established a revolutionary Islamic state. The subsequent hostage crisis and US-Iran tensions led to extensive sanctions that have persisted for decades. Iran endured an eight-year war with Iraq and more recently military confrontations with both Israel and the US. Despite these pressures, it has shown remarkable resilience in economic and social development. Though all this has imposed hardship on its people, Iran has invested heavily in human capital, scientific research and technological innovation. Adult literacy has risen to around 93pc; youth literacy is nearly universal. The gender gap in basic education has effectively disappeared. Women constitute nearly 60pc of university entrants and dominate enrolment in medical, health and STEM disciplines. Iran’s capabilities in nanotechnology, aerospace, biotechnology, AI and stem cell research are now globally recognised and Iran is among the leading developing states in scientific publications and research output. Sustained investment in research, development and higher education has led to the development of indigenous capabilities in reverse-engineering and manufacturing of advanced industrial and defence technologies. Iran produces far more scientists and PhDs per capita than Pakistan and has a diversified industrial base. The experiences of three Islamic republics — Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan — diverge sharply. Iran’s per capita income has risen from around $2,500 in 1980 to nearly $5,000. Poverty has declined, while non-oil sectors account for almost 90pc of GDP. Industry contributes strongly to national income. Iran exports pharmaceuticals, steel, cement and agricultural products. Social indicators have improved considerably. Fertility rates have fallen from over six children per woman in the 1980s to below replacement level, while life expectancy has increased from around 50 to nearly 78 years due to improved healthcare, electrification and access to potable water. Iran’s experience shows that a country can build indigenous technological capability and improve human development through sustained investment in education, science and industrialisation. But inflation, currency depreciation and political restrictions still generate public dissatisfaction and protests. Pakistan: Despite inheriting a weak economic base in 1947, Pakistan had emerged by 1990 as one of the more successful developing economies, achieving an average annual GDP growth of about 6pc for four decades, significantly outperforming India. Since the 1990s, however, the momentum has weakened; the growth rate has fallen to around 3-4pc, while India’s has accelerated to 6-7pc. Pakistan’s reversal is due to weak governance, policy inconsistency, institutional decay and an elitist growth model that benefits narrow segments of society. With an economy of some $400 billion and per capita income near $1,600, future prospects are uncertain unless reforms are undertaken to promote inclusion and broad-based opportunity. Structural challenges impede progress. Population growth remains high at about 2.5pc, fertility rates are still around 3.5 births per woman, and poverty has risen, affecting nearly 30pc of the people. Pakistan also ranks among countries most vulnerable to climate change, especially in water, food and energy security. Adult literacy is around 60pc; female literacy is slightly above 50pc. Graduate unemployment is high, reflecting the disconnect between education and labour market needs. Rural-urban, regional and gender disparities continue to widen. Pakistan’s HDI ranking has declined, and its position on the Global Gender Gap Index remains among the world’s lowest. Without adequate investment in research, higher education and scientific capability, it performs poorly on innovation and technological adoption. Divergent outcomes: The experiences of the three Islamic republics reveal striking contrasts. Iran, despite sanctions and international isolation, has invested heavily in human development, science and industrial capability, creating a foundation for self-reliance and technological advancement. Its successes in female education and scientific progress contradict the ideological assumptions underlying Taliban policies in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s earlier history shows that substantial progress is possible when governance and economic management are sound. Yet a persisting elitist growth structure has prevented it from realising its potential. Afghanistan, meanwhile, has moved into reverse gear. Excessive dependence on foreign aid, suppression of women’s education and employment, and economic isolation have undermined efficiency and social justice — the very principles Islam seeks to promote. Ultimately, an Islamic republic’s legitimacy doesn’t rest merely on constitutional titles or religious slogans. It must be judged by its ability to deliver justice, reduce poverty, expand opportunities and ensure dignity and inclusion for all citizens. The writer is a former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan. Published in Dawn, May 30th, 2026
The Reserve Bank of India will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in June, according to most economists in a Reuters poll, although a majority now expect at least one increase by year-end due to risks from high oil prices and pressure on the rupee from weak capital inflows.India's still-benign inflation at 3.48% in April, below the RBI's 4% medium-term target for over a year, gives the central bank scant reason to act urgently.But, with crude oil prices hovering about 30% over levels seen before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the rupee down roughly 6% for the year and wholesale inflation accelerating sharply in April, a growing number of economists now expect policy action may eventually be needed to limit the pass-through to inflation.Nearly 80% of economists, 44 of 56, in the May 22-29 Reuters poll expected the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5.Also Read: Repo rate hike not on the cards, for now, says Ram Singh, external member of MPCAmong other respondents, 11 forecast a 25-basis-point hike and one expected a bigger 50-basis-point increase. In an April poll only one respondent predicted a June rate lift."With growth facing downside risks while inflation faces strong upside pressures, we expect the RBI to hold rates steady in June... as supply shocks perceived as temporary might not warrant an interest rate action immediately," said Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI Primary Dealer."Interest rates are not a good tool to counter large supply shocks. Also, I do not think the RBI MPC will increase rates to defend the rupee since it is beyond the remit of the MPC and precedents provide evidence it is not an effective antidote to depreciation."But not everyone agrees the RBI should keep rates steady.Also Read: RBI warns prolonged West Asia conflict could hit India’s economy"Without any hikes the financial market perception that domestic policies remain unaligned with tight global financial conditions will continue to grow, inflating risks of repeated or renewed speculative pressures on the exchange rate," said ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim.A shift to a "hawkish" policy stance would be prudent, he added.The central bank has already spent billions of dollars to slow the rupee's decline as a global risk-off environment accelerates foreign outflows from India.Meanwhile, other Asian central banks have already begun tightening policy to shore up their currencies. Bank Indonesia delivered a surprise 50-basis-point rate hike last week, and the Philippines' central bank raised rates 25 basis points in April.India, Indonesia and the Philippines are especially exposed as higher oil import costs coincide with capital outflows driven by investors seeking safer assets.Still, when asked if the RBI should consider using monetary policy alongside FX intervention to cushion the rupee's fall, a majority of economists, 14 of 18, said no.Poll medians showed the central bank would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and again in the third quarter of 2027. Most economists expected at least one 25-basis-point rate increase by end-2026 compared with expectations in the April survey for no rise through 2027.Mizuho's head of macro research Vishnu Varathan said the RBI hiking rates was "a matter of when not if", and argued moving "sooner rather than later at the August meeting makes sense and mitigates unnecessary pain".
Net earnings fell to $83.1 million from $367.1 million as rental truck depreciation rose by $186.6 million and disposal losses hit $117.6 million for the year
Country: South Sudan Source: REACH Initiative Please refer to the attached file. KEY FINDINGS • Between April and May 2026, the median cost of the Multi-Sector Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (MSSMEB) declined by 3%, while the food basket fell by 5%. This overall decrease was primarily driven by lower prices for key food commodities, including maize (-25%), sorghum (-6%), cooking oil (-5%), and beans (-4%). However, increases in milling costs (25%) and soap prices (3%) placed upward pressure on the MSSMEB, though these increases were not sufficient to offset the broader downward trend. • In May 2026, the highest MSSMEB prices were recorded in Malakal Town (Malakal County), Bentiu, Bentiu IDP Camp, and Rubkona Town (Rubkona County). • These findings reflect broader structural challenges across South Sudan that continue to limit further price reductions. According to May JMMI data, traders cited high taxation (38%), poor road conditions (36%), high fuel prices (32%), South Sudanese Pound (SSP) depreciation (29%), high checkpoint costs (24%), and lack of capital (23%) as key constraints affecting trade and restocking activities. • Between April and May 2026, MSSMEB and food basket costs increased sharply in Melut (Melut County), rising by 38% and 32%, respectively. In Paloich (Melut County), the MSSMEB increased by 33%, while the food basket rose by 35%. In Marial Bai (Jur River County), both the MSSMEB and food basket increased by 23%. In Mundri Town (Mundri County), the MSSMEB and food basket increased by 21% and 16%, respectively. Compared to the reference month, Juba recorded MPC increases of 21% in April and 19% in May, Panyijiar recorded increases of 32% and 17%, and Tambura recorded increases of 22% and 24%. As these increases exceeded the 15% buffer threshold for two consecutive months, the MPC values for the three locations were updated.
With lesser overseas travel, foreign exchange outgo will reduce, and that can help in curbing rupee depreciation
Food security in the Philippines is increasingly undermined by the convergence of three interacting systemic pressures: (1) rising national debt and fiscal rigidity, (2) peso depreciation driven by structural import dependence and governance failures, and (3) climate-induced agricultural losses under the looming Super El Niño. An analysis of the Philippine debt situation, the downward spiral