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전체arXiv Math12,367arXiv CS.AI8,535arXiv Physics4,150arXiv Stat1,858PLOS ONE871arXiv Econ593arXiv Q-Bio496eLife165PLOS Global Public Health131PLOS Biology67PLOS Medicine46
arXiv Econ

Automated Trading System for Straddle-Option Based on Deep Q-Learning

arXiv:2509.07987v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Straddle Option is a financial trading tool that explores volatility premiums in high-volatility markets without predicting price direction. Although deep reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful approach to trading automation in financial markets, existing work mostly focused on predicting price trends and making trading decisions by combining multi-dimensional datasets like blogs and videos, which led to high computational costs and unstable performance in high-volatility markets. To tackle this challenge, we develop automated straddle option trading based on reinforcement learning and attention mechanisms to handle unpredictability in high-volatility markets. Firstly, we leverage the attention mechanisms in Transformer-DDQN through both self-attention with time series data and channel attention with multi-cycle information. Secondly, a novel reward function considering excess earnings is designed to focus on long-term profits and neglect short-term losses over a stop line. Thirdly, we identify the resistance levels to provide reference information when great uncertainty in price movements occurs with intensified battle between the buyers and sellers. Through extensive experiments on the Chinese stock, Brent crude oil, and Bitcoin markets, our attention-based Transformer-DDQN model exhibits the lowest maximum drawdown across all markets, and outperforms other models by 92.5\% in terms of the average return excluding the crude oil market due to relatively low fluctuation.

arXiv Econ

Coordinating Treatment Allocation and Recommendation

arXiv:2606.21120v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study a model in which a sender allocates limited treatment to agents with heterogeneous quality and later recommends selected agents to a receiver, seeking to maximize the number of agents accepted by the receiver. All agents value treatment, which improves agents' quality, but treatment must be allocated before the sender observes agents' initial quality; recommendation occurs only after quality is learned. A natural benchmark is to design the two instruments separately: allocate treatment randomly first, and then recommend agents from the top down afterward. Our main result shows that the sender can do strictly better by coordinating treatment allocation with recommendations. In the optimal joint mechanism, treatment is non-monotone in quality: an intermediate group has a lower treatment probability than both higher- and lower-quality agents, but is compensated with a guaranteed recommendation when treatment is realized. We provide an implementation through contracts that induce self-selection and discuss applications to education, industrial policy, and startup incubation. The takeaway is simple: coordinate treatment allocation and recommendation.

arXiv Econ

Variance Estimation with Dependence and Heterogeneous Means

arXiv:2603.11497v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper develops a framework for variance estimation under dependence and heterogeneous means. This paper shows that consistent estimation of the variance target is impossible in general, and characterizes necessary and sufficient conditions for conservative variance estimation using dual cones. To choose among the valid estimators, this paper formulates three criteria -- minimal correction, pointwise level estimand, and pointwise MSE -- and shows how an eigenvalue truncation solution is optimal under all three criteria. This characterization and solution allow us to assess if existing variance estimators are valid and optimal in their respective settings, and construct the first optimal variance estimator that is simultaneously robust to heterogeneous means and cross-cluster serial correlation.

arXiv Econ

Making Event Study Plots Honest: A Functional Data Approach to Causal Inference

arXiv:2512.06804v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Event study plots are the centerpiece of Difference-in-Differences (DiD) analysis, but current plotting methods cannot provide honest causal inference when the parallel trends and/or no-anticipation assumptions fail. We introduce a novel functional data approach to DiD that directly enables honest causal inference via event study plots. Our DiD estimator converges to a Gaussian process in the Banach space of continuous functions, enabling powerful simultaneous confidence bands. This theoretical contribution allows us to turn an event study plot into a rigorous honest causal inference tool through equivalence and relevance testing: Honest reference bands can be validated using equivalence testing in the pre-treatment period, and honest causal effects can be tested using relevance testing in the post-treatment period. We demonstrate the performance of our method in simulations and two case studies.

arXiv Econ

"Rich-Get-Richer"? Platform Attention and Earnings Inequality using Patreon Earnings Data

arXiv:2509.26523v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Using monthly Patreon earnings, we quantify how platform attention algorithms shape earnings concentration across creator economies. Patreon is a tool for creators to monetize additional content from loyal subscribers but offers little native distribution, so its earnings proxy well for the attention creators capture on external platforms (Instagram, Twitch, YouTube, Twitter/X, Facebook, and ``Patreon-only''). Fitting power-law tails to test for a highly unequal earnings distribution, we have three key findings. First, across years and platforms the earnings tail and distribution exhibits a Pareto exponent around $\alpha \approx 2$, closer to concentrated capital income than to labor income and consistent with a compounding, ``rich-get-richer'' dynamic (Barabasi and Albert 1999). Second, when algorithms tilt more attention toward the top, the gains are drawn disproportionately from the creator ``middle class''. Third, over time, creator inequality across social media platforms converge toward similarly heavy-tailed (and increasingly concentrated) distributions, plausibly as algorithmic recommendations rises in importance relative to user-filtered content via the social graph. While our Patreon-sourced data represents a small subset of total creator earnings on these platforms, it provides unique insight into the cross-platform algorithmic effects on earnings concentration.

arXiv Econ

Self-Employment as a Signal: Career Concerns with Hidden Firm Performance

arXiv:2509.01265v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study a stationary labour market in which risk-averse workers privately know their permanent talent and choose between risky self-employment, which produces portable public outcomes, and firm employment, which pays a competitive wage but keeps individual performance hidden. Because workers decide whether to generate another public outcome or apply to a firm, both public records and applicant pools are endogenous. We construct market beliefs from the stationary flow of types through all histories leading to each record and then condition them on the current application decision. If the effective continuation factor is below one half, a stationary sequential competitive equilibrium exists and occupational choice follows a talent cutoff at every record. Firm employment is persistent whenever it is strictly optimal for a given worker type at a given record. At any on-path record where both occupations are chosen, higher-talent workers select into self-employment, while the applicant wage lies below mean talent among workers holding that record. This wage discount decomposes exactly into the self-employed share and the talent gap between self-employed workers and applicants. The model yields within-record predictions for occupational choice, wages, subsequent performance, and the duration of opaque employment spells.

arXiv Econ

Two Motives for Verification in Information Cascades

arXiv:2508.20538v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We study sequential social learning when agents can pay to conduct a publicly observed investigation before acting. The baseline test is one-sided: success conclusively establishes one state, whereas failure is ordinarily inconclusive; success also gives the investigator a discovery reward. Investigation therefore has two private returns. Its diagnostic value is highest near the action threshold and vanishes at sufficiently optimistic beliefs, while the expected discovery reward is weakly increasing. The equilibrium investigation set has at most two components and can be disconnected, with a central diagnostic region and a separate high-belief, reward-driven region. Because investigation is selected on private information, the attempt itself is informative. The exact public transition map shows that a failed investigation can raise public belief when favorable selection outweighs the adverse outcome. Nevertheless, a positive chance of proof at a given history does not guarantee eventual discovery: with strictly positive cost, the total number of attempts is finite almost surely under either state, and a failure can move beliefs into an absorbing cascade trap. The two-component geometry persists for sufficiently small false-positive rates and can also arise with heterogeneous private costs. The stopping result, however, relies on conclusive evidence and a positive lower bound on costs.

arXiv Econ

Platform Choice, Trust, and Privacy in the Consumer AI Assistant Market

arXiv:2607.15134v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study how a representative sample of United States adult AI-assistant users (n=1,999; June 2026) choose among platforms, allocate tasks across them, evaluate provider trustworthiness, and value data-handling features. Estimates are weighted to the AI-user population using external adoption benchmarks. Four patterns emerge. The market is concentrated but internally differentiated: ChatGPT is the primary assistant for 58% of users and Gemini for 25%, yet smaller platforms hold defensible task niches--Claude captures a third of coding tasks despite a 7% overall share. Task allocation is thus organized by platform far more than by user, and technical use falls steeply with age. Trust is earned through use rather than reputation: Claude is ranked most trustworthy in every head-to-head among users of both platforms, and shows by far the largest gap between how its users and non-users rate it. Finally, privacy concern is near-universal but action is gated by knowledge, not concern; in a choice experiment users pay most to keep humans--not models--out of their conversations ($11.20/month), with valuations rising in task sensitivity.

arXiv Econ

Adaptive Ad Load Design for Sponsored Search Markets: Evidence, Theory, and Deployment

arXiv:2607.14418v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ad-load design is a central supply-side decision in sponsored search: more sponsored slots can raise revenue, but may crowd out organic results and degrade user outcomes. We study this trade-off using a large-scale randomized field experiment on an Android app store, where over five million users are exposed to one through six sponsored slots. Increasing ad load raises revenue by up to 43%, but reduces total search conversions by up to 5% and daily engagement by up to 2.2%. These average effects mask substantial heterogeneity: additional slots generate large revenue gains for high-ad-conversion queries, but little or negative marginal revenue for low-conversion queries. The trade-off also shifts within query as advertiser composition changes, such as brand-advertiser presence. Motivated by these findings, we design and deploy a novel adaptive algorithm -- exploration-augmented Locally Adaptive Ad Load (e-LAAL). e-LAAL combines LAAL, a model-free query-level decision rule that updates ad-load recommendations using recent outcomes, with static exploration arms that maintain support and provide fixed-policy counterfactual benchmarks. We provide a finite-time dynamic-regret guarantee for the e-LAAL architecture. In a platform-level production deployment serving 22.3 million users and 77.6 million searches, e-LAAL improves the empirical revenue--conversion trade-off relative to deployed static benchmarks and outperforms uniform and historical query-dependent static benchmarks.

arXiv Econ

Supervised Fine-Tuning vs. In-Context Learning: An Equilibrium Analysis of LLM Personalization under Congestion

arXiv:2607.14371v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized AI services, but a critical tension emerges: while personalization improves model performance, it consumes scarce computational resources that users must share. When should a user invest in expensive Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) versus lightweight In-Context Learning (ICL)? How does congestion from other users' personalization choices reshape these incentives? And what strategies should platforms adopt when offering multiple personalization algorithms? We develop a tractable framework for LLM serving that captures the statistical-economic trade-offs users face. Our analysis yields several surprising insights. First, we show that ICL and SFT dominate in different regimes, determined by an interplay between pretraining coverage and data signal-to-noise ratios, but congestion can flip these rankings. Second, equilibrium resource consumption exhibits pronounced non-monotonicity: improving pretraining precision reduces the congestion, while broader pretraining coverage and harder tasks sometimes increase it. Third, we prove that offering both personalization methods never hurts the platform's maximal profits, despite potentially increasing computational load. Experiments with GPT-2 on linear regression tasks validate our theoretical predictions about algorithm performance. Complementing these results, our review of documentation from 21 major AI platforms shows that the share offering both SFT and ICL increased from 9.5% in 2021 to 71.4% in 2025, consistent with our platform-design implications.

arXiv Econ

When Is Delegated Play Truthful? Within-Range Regret and the Trilemma of Aligned Delegation

arXiv:2607.14357v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Advertisers delegate bidding to autobidders; users delegate tasks to language-model agents. A person describes what they want to an automated proxy that acts in a mechanism on their behalf. This is the revelation principle in production, and it forces a question classical theory assumes away: when is it optimal to describe yourself honestly to your own proxy? We show the answer turns on one quantity, the proxy's within-range regret. The most a principal can gain by misreporting equals the regret of the proxy's honest-report action against those the principal could have steered it to take. Honest self-description is optimal exactly when the proxy already plays the best action it can reach, that is, when it is loyal (Theorem 1). The identity unifies auction-specific autobidding results and pins down when the faithful-communication assumption behind language-model elicitation proxies (Huang et al.) holds. The identity constrains guardrails placed on proxies, from bid caps to a model's alignment layer. No guardrail can be at once binding (it displaces the truthful action from the proxy's best reachable outcome), truthful (honest reporting stays optimal), and capability-preserving (that outcome stays reachable through some report); any two preclude the third (Theorem 2). A safety constraint that alters what a model does while leaving its best output reachable makes honest description of intent suboptimal, so a sharper report can gain. This is the incentive behind prompt-engineering and jailbreaking. Because within-range regret is #P-hard to compute exactly, we estimate it from samples and maintain it as a model is updated, at a cost set by how far the model drifts, not how often it changes. Running it on production language models from five providers under an alignment-style cap, we find honest reporting leaves surplus unclaimed on every model, recovered by inflating the report.

arXiv Econ

Indirect Variational Inference: Applications to Earnings Dynamics

arXiv:2607.15168v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Latent-variable models are central to economics but often entail intractable integration. Variational inference (VI), widely used in machine learning, turns this integration into tractable, differentiable optimization by replacing the likelihood with a variational objective. However, guarantees of recovering the true parameters remain limited when the variational family is insufficiently flexible -- a key obstacle to the adoption of VI in economics. We first evaluate VI in models of earnings dynamics and show that the choice of variational posterior is crucial. We then introduce indirect variational inference (IVI), which treats VI as an auxiliary model and corrects the bias induced by the variational approximation. IVI retains much of VI's tractability because it does not require computing the likelihood. We apply these methods to models allowing for nonlinear persistence, non-Gaussian and serially correlated transitory shocks, and latent heterogeneity. Across simulated and empirical applications, flexible variational families combined with IVI deliver reliable estimates.

arXiv Econ

Aggregation Bias in Proxy Measurement: Nighttime Lights and Local Economic Activity

arXiv:2607.14825v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper studies when high-resolution signals aggregated to administrative units can recover unobserved local economic activity. We develop a reverse-regression framework for signals generated by activity but used to predict it at coarser spatial supports. The main theorem decomposes predictive elasticity into elementary elasticity, reverse-regression attenuation, and a spatial aggregation term driven by unit size and within-unit dispersion, showing aggregation pulls elasticities toward one. Monte Carlo evidence confirms the decomposition and clarifies transferability conditions. Applications to VIIRS nighttime lights and local GDP or income in Brazil, Italy, the United States, Indonesia, and Kenya support local calibration mainly in richer contexts.

arXiv Econ

Does Multi-Agent Debate Improve AI Feedback on Research Papers?

arXiv:2607.14713v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probably not, at least for meta-analyses in economics. In a pre-registered, identity-masked, within-paper experiment, the authors of 44 meta-analyses ranked three AI reports on their own paper by usefulness for improving it: a single pass by a frontier model against two multi-agent debate tools we built and expected to win. All reports were held to a common length and template. The authors preferred the single pass, by 0.66 rank points over mad-research (95% CI 0.32 to 1.00) and 0.57 over paper-workshop (0.16 to 0.95), though paper-workshop spent roughly thirty times the tokens. Authors who recalled their journal referee report usually placed it first and never last; in a separate exercise, three AI judges almost always placed the real journal referee report last. Among the three AI reports, Gemini (the judge whose model family wrote none of the reports) would have ranked paper-workshop first in the authors' place, reversing the single-pass preference. The reversal warns against substituting an AI judge for the author. We measure perceived usefulness for finished papers; whether AI should referee papers is a separate question.

arXiv Econ

Which Green Technology to Subsidize? Evidence from Electric Vehicles in South Korea

arXiv:2607.14446v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We develop a framework to compare the relative effectiveness of subsidizing alternative emission-reducing technologies. We show that an intermediate technology may reduce emissions more effectively than the cleanest technology if it induces sufficiently greater substitution away from the prevailing high-emission technology. We apply the framework to the South Korean passenger vehicle market using a demand model that incorporates mileage heterogeneity, an important determinant of fuel-type choice. First, reallocating existing subsidies from battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the cleanest technology, to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), an intermediate technology, would reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by an additional 47%. Second, for a BEV-focused subsidy policy to outperform an HEV-focused policy, the carbon intensity of electricity generation would need to fall by approximately 45%. Our findings suggest that HEV subsidies remain more effective than BEV subsidies until consumers become sufficiently willing to switch to BEVs or electricity generation becomes sufficiently decarbonized.

arXiv Econ

Probability of worthwhile effect of monotone-response treatments

arXiv:2607.14414v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Experiments may, by design, prevent one from observing on a single subject both the response to a treatment and to its absence. Because of this, marginal distributions for both cases may be observable but not their joint distribution, thus obscuring the distribution of the treatment effect. We examine the case where we impose that the treatment effect is nonnegative, also called monotone treatment response, a common assumption relevant to many practical applications. We solve the problems of best- and worst-case probabilities that the treatment effect exceeds a given value, using an explicit construction for the dependence scheme in each case. Such problems can equivalently be described, in different contexts, as risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty and an order constraint, and as optimal transport with a particular cost function.

arXiv Econ

From Vector Autoregressions to AI-based Time Series Forecasting: A Review

arXiv:2607.14279v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting is a central goal of time-series analysis. This review centers on three major developments in recent AI-based time-series forecasting: transformers, large pretrained models for zero-shot forecasting, and diffusion-based generative forecasters. We connect these methods to the econometric tradition built around the vector autoregression (VAR) through a common object: the conditional distribution of the future given the past. The review is organized around three long-standing challenges: \emph{high dimensionality}, \emph{nonstationarity}, and \emph{nonlinearity}. We argue that modern methods make progress by expanding the classical forecasting template: they allow more flexible dynamics, use larger information sets and training corpora, and represent richer predictive distributions. Yet they often lack the inferential and structural tools that make classical models useful for testing, explanation, and policy analysis. We close by outlining open problems where econometric tools remain important.

arXiv Econ

Model Uncertainty under Non-Gaussian Errors: Bayesian Model Averaging and Selection in Stochastic Frontier Models

arXiv:2607.14274v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The paper investigates Bayesian Model Averaging and Selection (BMA/S) under non-standard stochastic assumptions, focusing on stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). We propose fast, reliable procedures for inference in the normal-exponential stochastic frontier model and examine whether accounting for asymmetric disturbances affects model averaging and/or selection outcomes relative to the conventional Gaussian-error BMA/S. Particular attention is given to moderate-dimensional covariate selection problems typical in SFA applications. We demonstrate that, with appropriate search strategies and parallelization techniques, exhaustive model search can be computationally feasible and, in some cases, more practical than stochastic search alternatives. A Monte Carlo simulation study is used to compare the proposed SF-BMA/S procedure with standard Gaussian-error BMA/S under varying levels of inefficiency-to-noise ratio and signal strength with respect to the data generating process. The results show that accounting for stochastic frontier structures may affect posterior inference and model averaging outcomes, especially in scenarios where efficiency analysis is most sensible.

arXiv Econ

AI Alignment Amplifies the Role of Race, Gender, and Disability in Hiring Decisions

arXiv:2605.13866v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Humans increasingly delegate consequential decisions to language models, yet whether these systems reproduce or reshape human patterns of discrimination remains unclear. Here, across 29 models and 177 occupations covering nearly half of U.S. employment, we show that language models incorporate demographics into hiring decisions, advantaging female and Black candidates while penalising disabled candidates, with effect sizes comparable to six months to one year of additional education. While pre-trained models show small demographic effects, post-training alignment, which adapts models to human norms and preferences, amplifies advantages for female and Black candidates by 396% and 413% and worsens the disability penalty by 152%. Compared with human employers in past correspondence experiments, language models reverse racial discrimination, substantially attenuate the disability penalty, and amplify the female advantage. Investigating the mechanisms, we find behavioural patterns that parallel statistical discrimination in human labour markets, but disability consistently fares worst across all channels. We trace this asymmetry to the composition of alignment data, where disability is structurally underrepresented, and to models' internal representations, where alignment shifts the encoding of disability most negatively among the three marginalised groups.

arXiv Econ

Crypto Pricing with Hidden Factors

arXiv:2601.07664v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We estimate risk premia in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns using the Giglio-Xiu (2021) three-pass approach, allowing for omitted latent factors alongside observed stock-market and crypto-market factors. Using weekly data on a broad universe of large cryptocurrencies, we find that crypto expected returns load on both crypto-specific factors and selected equity-industry factors associated with technology and profitability, consistent with increased integration between crypto and traditional markets. In addition, we study non-tradable state variables capturing investor sentiment (Fear and Greed), speculative rotation (Altcoin Season Index), and security shocks (hacked value scaled by market capitalization), which are new to the literature. Relative to conventional Fama-MacBeth estimates, the latent-factor approach yields materially different premia for key factors, highlighting the importance of controlling for unobserved risks in crypto asset pricing.

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