Saudi regains share in India's crude imports

New Delhi: Saudi Arabia is set to regain share in India's crude imports in July after its share nearly halved in May and June, although Russia is expected to remain the country's largest supplier, according to estimates from energy cargo tracker Kpler.Saudi Arabia is expected to supply 464,000 barrels per day (bpd) to India in July, based on arrivals in the first half of the month and tanker-tracking data.

Between July 2025 and April 2026, the kingdom supplied an average of 700,000 bpd, accounting for about 14.5% of India's crude imports.

After its share slipped to an average 7% in May-June, Saudi Arabia is set to recover to about 10% in July.Imports from Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, whose crude exports rely entirely on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, remain negligible.

Supplies from these countries are unlikely to pick up in the second half of July as shipping through the Strait has again been disrupted following the resumption of the US-Iran conflict.India's overall crude imports are projected to decline to 4.55 million bpd in July from 5.09 million bpd in June.

Russian shipments are also expected to ease to 2.26 million bpd from 2.73 million bpd in June, although they remain well above the preceding 12-month average of 1.73 million bpd.The estimates are subject to revision as voyage visibility improves and vessel-tracking data become more complete, said Nikhil Dubey, lead analyst, refining at Kpler.

"Russian cargoes often show up at the last minute as some cargoes get booked through traders, available nearby so they may not be captured in the current forecast yet," he said.

"Therefore, it is possible that additional Russian volumes may appear in the second half of the month."Venezuelan crude imports are also seen rising to an estimated 315,000 bpd in July from 281,000 bpd in June, making the Latin American country India's fourth-largest supplier after Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (379,000 bpd).US crude imports are expected to decline to 125,000 bpd in July from 157,000 bpd in June.

Shipments from the US have remained subdued since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28, well below last year's average.US crude, which is predominantly light, is currently less attractive to refiners, Dubey said.

"With middle distillate economics remaining strong over the past few months, refiners are prioritising crude grades that maximise middle distillate yields." ...