A tentative peace

IN a dramatic turn of events, the US and Iran have agreed on a framework for peace talks. While the details of the deal, reached after months of intense backchannel negotiations mediated by Pakistan and supported by other regional countries, have yet to be made public, this development has raised hopes of ending an irrational war that the US has lost. The tentative pact provides a space of 60 days to conclude a comprehensive peace agreement that remains a significant challenge. There’s still a long way to go before such an agreement is reached.

There has been a noticeable shift in President Donald Trump’s previously aggressive tone; however, several complex issues need to be addressed during this period. These include deferred nuclear talks, the future governance of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of the sanctions on Iran. Meanwhile, Israel’s refusal to participate in the process and its ongoing invasion of Lebanon could undermine peace negotiations.

Bringing the two adversaries to the negotiating table has been a challenging diplomatic task for Pakistan. Support from regional countries has significantly helped Pakistan in this painstaking process. Although no breakthrough occurred during the first round of peace talks, known as the Islamabad Talks, held in April, the meeting helped diplomatic channels remain open. Pressure was also placed on the Trump administration by the Gulf countries to end the war, which has profoundly impacted the region. Building trust between the two sides remains a significant challenge.

Regardless of the outcome of the peace talks, it is clear that the US has lost yet another war of its choosing. Operation Epic Fury, jointly launched by the Trump administration and Israel against Iran on Feb 28, failed to achieve any of its shifting objectives. Despite relentless bombings that wiped out much of Iran’s military infrastructure and eliminated key civil and military leaders, the operation failed to force Iran to capitulate. The US blockade of Iranian ports, intended to strangle the country economically, also proved ineffective.

It is clear that the US has lost yet another war of its choosing.

Trump miscalculated Iran’s resilience; it was not to be the easy victory he expected, similar to Venezuela. As a result, he had no choice but to agree to a framework for peace talks that were not on his terms, seemingly conceding many of Iran’s demands. Even the nuclear issue, which was presented as the justification for the attack on Iran, has been deferred to upcoming negotiations, effectively aiming to restore the pre-war status quo. Despite its losses, Iran has emerged much stronger from the conflict, and has become a symbol of defiance.

A weakened Trump is now left to fight a political battle at home. The highly unpopular and irrational war has divided his support base between anti-interventionists and hawks, who feel disappointed by the peace negotiations. The economic costs of the conflict, evidenced by rising inflation, have further driven down his approval ratings to a historical low.

Meanwhile, the war has alienated Washington’s Western allies, who have refused to support what they describe as an illegal conflict. The economies of these countries have been severely impacted, and recovery will take a long time, even with the potential end of hostilities.

However, the most significant challenge for the Trump administration is how to prevent Israel, which initially pushed the US into this war, from undermining the peace negotiations. On the day the US-Iran deal was announced, Israel escalated its bombing campaign in Lebanon, claiming that the provisions of the agreement did not apply to it. The cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is reportedly a crucial part of the MoU; however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the country would continue to occupy parts of Lebanon.

Several Israeli government ministers have publicly denounced the agreement. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir argued that Israel should not accept it and called for the military to continue demolishing houses in southern Lebanon and push back the residents. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that the deal was detrimental to the world. Some media reports indicated that Trump exchanged harsh words during his conversation with Netanyahu. However, given Israel’s influence over America’s power structure, a rupture in relations between the two allies seems unlikely. Israel continues to pose the biggest threat to peace in the Middle East.

The war has dramatically altered regional geopolitics, straining US relations with its Arab and Gulf allies, who have borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliatory strikes on American military bases in their countries. These nations were entirely dependent on Washington for security but found themselves unprotected as Israel’s security was America’s main priority. While some of these countries initially supported the US-Israel war on Iran, their perspective shifted due to the security and economic costs they incurred.

Trump’s recent statement that the US would, if necessary, act as a paid police force for the Middle East, reflects his typical business and transactional mindset. In an interview with the New York Times, he suggested making the US “the guardian of the Middle East” in exchange for 20 per cent of the region’s revenues, effectively proposing a mercenary role for America. The Gulf countries have already been paying billions of dollars to Washington for security, but this approach has not been effective.

Trump’s latest proposal may prompt these countries to explore alternative regional security arrangements. There are already signs of rapprochement between Iran and the Gulf countries in the post-war regional landscape, which could be a positive development for regional peace and for preventing future conflicts.

The latest US-Iran deal has opened channels for meaningful dialogue starting in Geneva this week and is aimed at resolving a conflict that has serious global implications. It is indeed a victory for diplomacy. The Strait of Hormuz has now been opened for shipping, and the lifting of the US naval blockade has begun to ease restrictions on sea traffic from Iran. The pressure on the global economy has eased, yet the process remains tentative, with many obstacles still in the way.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, June 17th, 2026 ...