Vance pitch does little to quell House GOP angst over reconciliation 3.0

Vice President Vance's pitch to House Republicans on Wednesday did little to ease concerns over Speaker Mike Johnson's $95 billion reconciliation package, leaving GOP leaders with work to do ahead of a planned floor vote next week.

Why it matters: Johnson's conference members remain uneasy about the lack of spending offsets, and disagreements persist over the details of their signature election bill.

Republicans hold a razor-thin majority, so a handful of defections could sink the measure.

"It's DOA," Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) told Axios.

"Five-dollar footlongs are $12. People know that a lot of this is the debt. The deficits cause big debt, and overall, this debases the money. This is part of what's driving the affordability crisis."

"A no-offset plan is dead on arrival, because, frankly, three of us would kill it," Davidson added.

Driving the news: Vance spent roughly an hour with House Republicans pitching the legislation and taking questions, according to multiple members in the room.

Asked afterward why the package lacks offsets, Vance told reporters: "Ultimately, we decided this legislation, for a whole host of procedural reasons, was not the place in order to codify some of the things that we're doing in the anti-fraud task force."

Johnson has been framing the lack of pay-fors as necessary to maximize the package's chances of success in the Senate.

"I don't know if I buy all of that," Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said when asked about Johnson's argument.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told Axios that "yes," he's confident the measure will get through his committee, where it's up for a vote Thursday.

But Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who sits on the panel, told Axios he's "undecided."

"I think the stupidest thing to do would be to try to jam it through committee when we've got bigger problems on the House floor," Roy told reporters. "And I think that might be the current state of affairs."

Another Budget Committee member, Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.), who has privately complained about being left out of last weekend's Camp David negotiations, also remains wary of the package.

Between the lines: The lack of offsets isn't the only headache for Johnson. His proposed SAVE America Act provisions aren't going far enough for some conservatives, either.

For them, a proposed grant program to incentivize states to pass voter ID laws is insufficient.

"That's just free money for Florida," Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) said of the grant program. Blue states "will never take the grant money. I'm not a big fan of carrots. I like sticks."

Yes, but: Senate Republicans have warned that including the full SAVE Act would likely fail to meet the parliamentary standard for reconciliation bills in the Senate known as the "Byrd bath."

That isn't swaying some House conservatives. "I don't worship at the altar of Senate procedure," Fine said.

The other side: "It's better than nothing," Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) told Axios of the grant program.

"Our budgetary concerns do not overwhelm our focus on getting SAVE America. ... For the first time, I feel highly confident that we are going to get it done," Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) told Axios.

In the Senate, Republican leaders remain broadly skeptical of a third supplemental spending package, and rank-and-file senators are already signaling they want changes to the House bill.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham as chair of the Budget Committee, is warning that the Senate may insist on offsetting at least some of the spending.

"I've got other members on the committee that also insist on offsets," he told Politico.

"Offsets would be a desired goal," Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said.

Others are pushing for a more ambitious package.

"I think it should be bigger," Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said.

Still, some Republicans say they want to give the House room to finish its work before drawing battle lines.

"We're going to try and get her done," Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Axios. "We thought they would have offsets in there. We're a little surprised they weren't." ...