World: Fewer hurricanes do not mean less risk: IFRC ramps up preparedness across the Americas
Countries: World, Argentina, Barbados, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Panama, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Uruguay Source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies Panama City, 1 June 2026 — Although forecasts point to a below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) today recalled that high cyclonic activity is expected in the eastern Pacific. The organization called for sustained investment in preparedness, anticipatory action and early warning systems across more than 25 countries1 in Central America, North America and the Caribbean that are exposed to tropical cyclones. For the 2026 season in the Atlantic basin, which runs from 1 June to 30 November, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts, with a 55 per cent probability, below-average cyclonic activity relative to the historical average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. This year, NOAA notes, there would be between eight and 14 named storms. Of these, three to six would become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes — that is, Category 3 or higher. By contrast, the agency forecasts, with a 70 per cent probability, a more active season in the eastern Pacific Ocean, where it predicts between 15 and 22 named storms, of which nine to 14 would become hurricanes and five to nine of those would reach major hurricane strength. "We will say it again and again: a single storm is enough to destroy communities, overwhelm public services, and displace and endanger hundreds of thousands of people," said Cristian Torres, Deputy Regional Director of the IFRC for the Americas. "Forecasts are critical so that we can act before disasters strike, but beyond knowing how many storms there will be, it is essential to reduce people's vulnerability, expand the coverage of early warning systems, and develop, fund and test inter-agency protocols that protect them from the multiple hazards they face," he added. As part of its commitment to preparedness, the IFRC has already prepositioned in Panama, Santo Domingo and other strategic locations across the region enough relief supplies to provide immediate assistance to up to 60,000 people affected by a large-scale emergency. The stock includes hygiene and kitchen kits, mosquito nets, tarpaulins, cleaning and construction tools, solar lamps, water treatment units and water purification supplies, among other items. Aware that mobilizing humanitarian aid in record time requires the participation, knowledge and collaboration of multiple actors, the IFRC also relies on simulation exercises as a critical tool to test crisis and disaster response mechanisms and protocols. The most recent, held this past May, aimed to measure and improve mobilization times, customs procedures and the inter-agency response capacity of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras in the face of potential flooding caused by hurricanes. The exercise involved mobilizing Red Cross water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) specialist teams and equipment across these three countries. The initiative brought together civil protection, customs and foreign affairs authorities, along with the National Red Cross Societies. It was supported by European Union humanitarian funding and the German Red Cross, and was carried out within the framework of the Regional Mechanism for International Humanitarian Assistance, the instrument of the Central American Integration System (SICA) for organizing, facilitating and coordinating humanitarian assistance among its member countries. Another of the preparedness measures driven by the IFRC ahead of the hurricane season is the adoption of early action protocols. These protocols bring together measures agreed in advance among communities, authorities, and the Red Cross, which are triggered when certain risk thresholds are reached. Depending on the context, these actions may include cash transfers ahead of an emergency to protect homes and livelihoods, the relocation of essential goods, the reinforcement of critical infrastructure, or the evacuation of people in situations of greater vulnerability. When these systems work, communities receive timely alerts, authorities have more time to coordinate evacuations, and humanitarian teams can mobilize aid before the impact occurs. In Central America alone, the IFRC currently has five early action protocols for floods and tropical storms, financially supported by its Disaster Response Emergency Fund (IFRC-DREF). "Prepositioning relief items, simulation exercises and early action protocols make it possible to protect lives, reduce economic losses and speed up recovery after a disaster," Torres explained. "But rules can also save lives and build community resilience, which is why we call on all countries in the region to advance the international treaty for the protection of persons in disaster situations, currently under consultation at the United Nations." This treaty seeks to ensure that the protection of people exposed to or affected by disasters does not depend on chance, but on clear commitments and coordinated action. Its adoption, expected in 2027, would facilitate international cooperation and reduce the obstacles that can delay the arrival of aid. It would also improve the conditions for Red Cross Societies, as auxiliary to the public powers, to continue assisting the most vulnerable people: women, girls, older people, people on the move or with disabilities, and communities affected by violence and poverty. This season, shaped by the influence of the coming El Niño phenomenon, illustrates how risk can shift and take different forms across the continent. While Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic continue to recover from hurricanes Beryl, Oscar, Rafael and Melissa, other areas face different threats. The Central American Dry Corridor, parts of Chile and areas of the Andean region are bracing for possible droughts, while Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay anticipate heavy rains and flooding. In all of them, Red Cross teams are already working with communities to get ready. Against this backdrop, where climate, health and social risks accumulate and overlap with growing frequency, the IFRC calls for investing without delay in measures that enable States, communities and the Red Cross itself to better protect people in the face of multi-hazard scenarios. Because, as underscored at IFRC's recent XXXIII Pre-Hurricane and Recurrent Hazards Conference, when risks pile up, the difference between a hazard and a humanitarian crisis is usually decided before the impact — in the level of preparedness already in place, and in the capacity to act before the disaster occurs. For more information: [email protected] In Panama: Susana Arroyo +50769993199 In Geneva: Paolo Cravero +41 79 894 83 96