New data release: ECB wage tracker points to stable negotiated wage pressures in 2026

- PRESS RELEASE New data release: ECB wage tracker points to stable negotiated wage pressures in 2026 17 June 2026 - ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to end-May 2026; forward-looking horizon remains unchanged at end-December 2026 - Forward-looking information remains unrevised and indicates stable negotiated wage growth at around 2.6% by end-2026 - ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments at 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026 The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments of 3.2% in 2025 (based on a coverage of 51.5% of employees in participating countries) and 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 43.2%). Compared with the May 2026 data release, the ECB wage tracker with smoothed one-off payments is broadly unrevised for 2026. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments indicates negotiated wage growth of 3.0% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. The wage tracker excluding one-off payments indicates an easing of negotiated wage growth from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. The headline ECB wage tracker is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics in negotiated wages, as it smooths one-off payments over time. Meanwhile, the ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is better suited to describing yearly dynamics. For 2026 the headline ECB wage tracker averages 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second quarter, and 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters. This increase over the course of the year reflects the fading mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments that were made in 2024 but not in 2025. This mechanical effect is expected to virtually disappear over the course of 2026 in the headline indicator. The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments reflects a more stable outlook than in previous years for negotiated wage growth in 2026 (averaging 2.9% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second quarter, and 2.5% in the third and fourth quarters). The wage tracker excluding one-off payments is expected to continue to hover around 2.6% in 2026 (averaging 2.7% in the first quarter and 2.6% for the remainder of the year), indicating more moderate dynamics in negotiated base wages than in recent years. Employee coverage for 2026 stands at 46.4% in the first quarter of the year, 44.8% in the second quarter, 41.1% in the third quarter and 40.4% in the fourth quarter. See Chart 1 and Table 1 for further details. The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker remains unchanged up to December 2026. As new agreements are being signed and the coverage of contracts reaching beyond 2026 is gradually increasing, the forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker will be extended to the first quarter of 2027 in the July 2026 data release. Overall, the ECB wage tracker may be subject to revision, and the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information that is currently available for active collective bargaining agreements. Moreover, the ECB wage tracker does not track the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely, and deviations are to be expected over time. For a more comprehensive assessment of wage developments in the euro area, please refer to the June 2026 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which indicate a yearly growth rate of compensation per employee in the euro area of 3.2% in 2026. The ECB publishes four wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the nine participating euro area countries on the ECB Data Portal. Chart 1 ECB wage tracker: forward-looking signals for negotiated wages and revisions to the previous data release What do the four different indicators show? - The headline ECB wage tracker is a tracker of negotiated wage growth that includes collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back-dated pay, which are smoothed over 12 months. - The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or permanent) negotiated wage increases. - The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology that, in terms of both data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not necessarily the same as, that used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth. - The share of employees covered is the percentage of employees across the participating countries that are directly covered by ECB wage tracker data. This indicator provides information on the representativeness of the underlying (negotiated) wage growth signals obtained from the set of wage tracker indicators for the aggregate of the participating countries. Employee coverage differs across countries and within each country over time (more details can be found in Table 2). Table 1 ECB wage tracker summary Table 2 Employee coverage by country For media queries, please contact Benoit Deeg, tel.: +491721683704 Notes: - The ECB wage tracker is the result of a Eurosystem partnership currently comprising the ECB and nine euro area national central banks: the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank. It is based on a highly granular database of active collective bargaining agreements for Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland. The wage tracker can be used to help assess wage pressures in the euro area. - The wage tracker methodology uses a double aggregation approach. First, it aggregates the highly granular information on collective bargaining agreements and constructs the wage tracker indicators at the country level using information on the employee coverage within each country. Second, it uses this information to construct the aggregate for the euro area using time-varying weights based on the total compensation of employees among the participating countries. - Given that the forward-looking nature of the tracker is dependent on the underlying collective bargaining agreements database, the wage signals should always be considered conditional on the information available at any given point in time and thus subject to revision. This is particularly relevant at the turn of the year, as many agreements are signed or renewed in the first quarter in some countries. - The results in this press release do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies. European Central Bank Directorate General Communications - Sonnemannstrasse 20 - 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany - +49 69 1344 7455 - media@ecb.europa.eu Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Media contacts