Can US Senator Lindsey Graham's Ukraine initiatives survive without him?

For Ukraine and its supporters, the sudden death of US Senator Lindsey Graham raises an important question: Without a close ally of President Donald Trump advocating loudly for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government, will his administration’s recent tilt in favour of Kyiv last?

The answer will especially affect two major issues — legislation to sanction Russia, which Graham pushed for more than a year, and military assistance for Ukraine.

On both, the momentum has lately been in Ukraine’s favour as Kyiv faces intensified attacks by Russia and pressure to end the nearly 4.5-year-long conflict.

Graham and other senators who back the sanctions bill announced on Friday that they had an agreement with the White House to move ahead on the “Sanctioning Russia Act,” which has been stalled due to resistance from Trump despite being co-sponsored by 85 of 100 senators.

Trump himself said last week that he would grant Kyiv a license to make interceptors for the Patriot defensive missile system, although Zelenskiy’s government says it needs more defensive munitions immediately.

Graham, 71, died late on Saturday, a day after his 10th trip to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, during which he announced the agreement with the White House to finally move forward on the Russia sanctions bill.

Linking Kyiv and Trump

The South Carolina senator had lobbied for years for military assistance for Ukraine and served as a link between Kyiv and the Trump administration, often alongside Democrats.

Last year, he helped arrange a critical minerals agreement between the United States and Kyiv, convincing Trump to back a plan giving the United States preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals projects in exchange for investment.

“He was successful in leading President Trump to pivot in his position toward Ukraine,” said Matthew Murray, a former Commerce Department official now teaching at Georgetown and Columbia universities.

“The senator’s good work here will be self-sustaining and self-executing,” Murray said.

Zelenskiy said he was “deeply saddened” by Graham’s passing. “We remained in constant dialogue, and I will miss our conversations. We met twice in just the past week,” he said in a statement.

Analysts said Graham’s overall record had been mixed on Ukraine, complicated by Trump’s at-times strained relations with Zelenskiy, his “America First” foreign policy and the costly war with Iran that consumes US resources and increases pressure to allow Russian oil shipments as a way of moderating energy prices.

“It’s a big loss for Ukraine. I don’t think anyone should have any illusions about it,” said Scott Anderson of the Brookings Institution, noting that Graham acted as an important behind-the-scenes influence on Trump from the more internationalist wing of the Republican Party.

But even Graham was unable to convince Trump to allow a vote on the sanctions bill, and the last major Ukraine aid legislation passed by both the House and Senate was $61 billion in April 2024.

Many Republicans have grown cooler to Kyiv since Trump began his second term in January 2025.

‘The president’s ear’

It could be more difficult to pass the sanctions bill or further security assistance without someone like Graham, a former Trump critic who became a close ally and frequent golf partner, leaning on the president.

Additionally, several other pro-Ukraine lawmakers, including former Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, are also leaving Congress in January.

“Ukraine has lost an advocate that had the president’s ear,” said Charles Lichfield, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

Trump has at times put sustained pressure on Zelenskiy’s government to agree to a peace deal that could mean painful concessions and harshly criticised the Ukrainian leader.

Early last year, he berated the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office, saying he was insufficiently grateful for US military support.

But Trump’s tone lately has grown more conciliatory.

Zelenskiy said after a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) summit this month that Ukraine and the US had reached a political agreement on licences for production of Patriot interceptors and that the two sides were talking about joint drone production.

And Trump is expected to allow a vote on the sanctions bill, which targets countries that buy Russian oil, gas and uranium.

The bill’s other supporters in both the Senate and House of Representatives said they would push for its passage as a tribute to Graham, with some suggesting it should be renamed after Graham.

“There can be no more fitting tribute to Lindsey,” Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee and a bill co-sponsor, said in a statement.

The Senate has not yet announced a timeline for a vote, but the chamber’s Republican majority leader, John Thune of South Dakota, said on CNN that passing it would be an “incredible legacy” for Graham. ...