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Iran war hobbles power to shape oil market

OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that have surged since the Iran war effectively choked off Gulf crude shipments.But even if the cartel members vow to ramp up output by thousands of barrels per day, analysts say geopolitical realities mean they probably won't move the needle on prices.Also read: OPEC+ leaders expected to up July oil output target despite Hormuz disruption, sources sayWith the crucial Strait of Hormuz shut since US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have nearly doubled, igniting inflation pressures worldwide.Ministers from the 21 member states of OPEC+, the main oil producing nations and their allies, are holding their quarterly meeting online.The group is likely to beef up its production quotas by "188,000 barrels a day", said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, similar to recent increases. But in reality, only seven members -- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- have the capacity to do so.Dwindling supply Tehran's threats of retaliatory attacks to US and Israeli strikes have virtually blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass.That is equivalent to about 20 million barrels a day. But with key Gulf producers shut out of the global market, pledges to raise output in a bid to ease spiralling prices are unlikely to sway traders. "Any announced production increases or changes to output targets will have limited practical value," said Ole Hansen, a commodities analyst at Saxo Bank."There is very little OPEC can do," he told AFP.OPEC+ itself says daily production has plummeted to just 33 million barrels a day as tankers remain stuck, compared to nearly 43 million before the conflict.A US blockade on Iranian ports means "it will be even less than that" in reality, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at data firm Kpler.Also read: Oil prices fall on mounting hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran WarUAE slams the door The United Arab Emirates' recent decision to quit OPEC further saps away at the cartel's influence, given its huge excess production capacity.And Abu Dhabi has made clear it wants to boost output."They don't want to be dictated to, they want to maximise their revenues," said Lawrence Haar, a lecturer in finance at the University of Brighton in England. And the cartel risks seeing other countries follow the UAE's example."If Iraq were to leave, it could mark the end of OPEC+," Falakshahi said.Saudi Arabia, by far the cartel's most influential member, "is going to do what it takes to stop anyone else from leaving," Falakshahi predicted.That could translate into more flexible output quotas or decreased penalties for any excess production.But "for now, the compensation framework has effectively become irrelevant due to widespread production shut-ins," Hansen said.As a result, the Iran war has largely neutralised the cartel's stated mission "to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, and a steady income to producers". For Falakshahi, the only factor limiting further oil price spikes at the moment is China, "which is buying less oil than normal" by tapping into its vast strategic reserves.

Molecule glue drugs shake up cancer care

One of the biggest advances in pancreatic cancer in decades came out of a crazy idea born in a Harvard University lab.Chemical biologist Gregory Verdine believed you could fight disease-causing proteins hidden inside cells by chemically gluing them to something else in the body and smothering them."Everybody told us this is crazy, that it would never work," he recalls.Revolution Medicines, which bought one of Verdine's companies in 2018, recently announced that one of its drugs doubled the typical survival time for patients with aggressive forms of the disease, from 6.7 months to 13.2 months. The full results from the company's final-stage trial are expected to be the star of the show at the annual confab of cancer doctors in Chicago this weekend.Spurred by the success of RevMed, numerous companies are now racing to develop similar drugs, dubbed "molecular glues", which can be used to treat a variety of ailments. And investors and pharmaceutical companies with deep pockets are chasing after them, creating one of the hottest corners of dealmaking in the industry.Also read | India's out-of-pocket healthcare spending drops significantly, govt data showsIt's not unusual for exciting new drugs to spark surges in stock prices and dealmaking frenzy. But molecular glue is a particularly complicated science, and the startups pursuing technologies similar to RevMed are mostly in early stages of testing. Their medicines won't be ready for years, if ever.That hasn't stopped big drugmakers such as Novartis, Roche Holding and Eli Lilly from inking research pacts with glue developers that could pay out billions of dollars in milestones.The boom has been especially lucrative for Monte Rosa Therapeutics. Over the past three years, the Boston-based biotech firm has signed three agreements that could be worth over $10 billion to develop molecular glue drugs with both Novartis and Roche.The company, which trades under the stock ticker GLUE, has seen its shares surge nearly 400% over the past year. It's preparing to start mid-stage trials for multiple drugs by the end of this year."The run-up in the share price is justified based on what we've seen so far," says Robert Driscoll, an analyst at Wedbush. Gains are "due to the success of their drugs rather than kind of exuberance around the glue technology as a whole", he says.Science of GlueMolecular glues work in a fundamentally different way from other oral medicines. Most pills - like Prozac for depression or Lipitor for cholesterol - are tiny chemicals that squeeze into a pocket inside a much larger protein to gum up its functioning. But many proteins have few obvious pockets, including key cancer-causing proteins.In fact, about 80% of all proteins in the body are what scientists refer to as "undruggable", meaning they can't be targeted with traditional drug technologies.RevMed's daraxonrasib cleverly circumvents this problem by acting as a molecular stickum. Once inside the body it binds to a healthy protein on one side and then draws in the bad protein to stick to the other side. The healthy protein helps block the bad protein and turn off its signalling.Competitors Line UpMultiple companies are chasing RevMed's lead in pancreatic cancer despite the long odds. San Diego-based Erasca is in early stages of testing a drug it says is more potent than daraxonrasib. Japanese drugmaker Astellas Pharma has begun final-stage trials of a degrader that may help a subset of pancreatic and lung cancer patients.Molecular glues are also being developed as alternatives to injectable drugs used to treat autoimmune and skin disorders. Shares of Kymera Therapeutics have soared more than 180% in the past year thanks to promising early trial results. The company is developing a once-daily pill it hopes will one day compete with Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' Dupixent, one of the world's bestselling drugs."The technology allows you to go after things that would have been almost impossible" to do previously with pills, says Nello Mainolfi, Kymera's founder and CEO.With few effective options for pancreatic cancer, analysts expect RevMed's daraxonrasib to become an enormous bestseller for the company.Prospects for daraxonrasib and speculation about a potential takeout deal have inflated RevMed's market cap to nearly $33 billion. That's a lofty figure for a drugmaker with no approved medicines.The company is preparing to file for US approval soon, and the FDA has promised to give the drug an ultrafast review. It's projected to reach $7 billion in sales a year by 2032, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.