The Economic Times (India)
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The Economic Times · "SUPPLY" · 총 27건
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최근 7일 기준 764건을 분석한 결과, 뉴스 심리지수는 50.0(균형)입니다. 긍정 0건(0.0%)·중립 764건(100.0%)·부정 0건(0.0%)이며, 중립 비중이 뚜렷하게 높습니다. 성향 지수는 종합 0.0(중도 균형)입니다.
The rupee appreciated 50 paise to 95.24 against the US dollar on Friday after the RBI liberalised norms for FPI investment in government securities. Forex traders said the announcements in the RBI policy boosted investor sentiments after the apex bank asserted that the country's forex reserves provide sufficient buffer against external shocks. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.72, then touched 95.24 in intraday trade, registering a rise of 50 paise from its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee rose 2 paise to settle at 95.74 against the US dollar. The Reserve Bank on Friday expectedly kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row as it weighed the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the West Asia crisis. Announcing the second bi-monthly monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has unanimously decided to retain short-term lending rate or repo rate at 5.25 per cent with a neutral stance. Moreover, the RBI raised limit for investments by Non-Resident Indians, Overseas Citizens of India in equity instruments. Malhotra also said that the central bank's policy on exchange rate remains unchanged and it does not target any specific rate/band for the rupee. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.40, higher by 0.01 per cent. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 0.36 per cent at USD 95.37 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 142.06 points or 0.19 per cent to 74,217.95, while the Nifty was down 38.75 points or 0.17 per cent at 23,377.80. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 4,447.06 crore on a net basis on Thursday, according to exchange data. Meanwhile, RBI has lowered GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent earlier for the current fiscal and raised CPI inflation projection to 5.1 per cent for FY27, higher from earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. PTI
As geopolitical headwinds make it tougher for equity investors to make money, Dalal Street’s top voice Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told a gathering of HNI investors at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit on Thursday that there are four specific investment structures which deserve a place in most portfolios right now.Shah’s first recommendation was the Special Investment Fund, or SIF, a structure that marks a meaningful shift in what is available to Indian investors. Shah noted that the mutual fund industry has, until now, been a long-only business but the SIF changes that. These are long-short, absolute return-oriented funds, designed to generate returns regardless of market direction rather than simply riding the equity tide.The second vehicle Shah flagged is performing credit AIFs. His reasoning was grounded in a simple supply-demand observation that for corporate settlements today, capital is not available from banks, mutual funds, or insurance companies.As institutional lenders have stepped back, borrowers are plenty and lenders very few. Amid this imbalance, Shah said the need is real and returns are attractive. Performing credit AIFs, which lend into this gap, are positioned to benefit directly from the scarcity of competing capital.https://youtube.com/shorts/Xa4AcXFg8hA?feature=shareThe third idea was REITs, and here Shah introduced a timing element. Over the last three years, REITs have delivered index-level returns of around 13.5%. But with interest rates rising, he suggested that the next six to nine months may present an opportunity to enter at better prices. Rising rates typically compress REIT valuations in the near term, and Shah framed any such correction as a potential entry point rather than a risk to avoid. Beyond the return potential, he positioned REITs as a portfolio diversification tool as the asset class behaves differently from equities and fixed income, and that is still underrepresented in most Indian investor portfolios.The fourth recommendation addressed global diversification but came with an important caveat. Mutual fund industry limits for overseas investment are currently full, which means the conventional route for Indian investors to access global markets through domestic mutual funds is closed. Shah pointed to Gift City as the workaround. Structures domiciled there allow investment under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, and in his view, these Gift City-based LRS products are the practical path for investors who want global exposure while the mutual fund window remains shut.Across all four — the SIF, performing credit AIFs, REITs, and Gift City products — Shah's underlying argument was the same: in a volatile period, the portfolio needs instruments that can generate positive returns through means other than a rising equity market.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
Mumbai: Aggressive equity mutual fund investors looking to diversify beyond banks and information technology can consider an exposure to the manufacturing theme given the rising potential for the sector amid growing domestic demand and a focus of global companies to form alternative supply chains. Wealth managers, however, believe investors should consider this as a satellite allocation for their portfolio and stagger their investments over the next six months.The Nifty Manufacturing Index has a low overlap of only 19% with the Nifty 50. Investors looking to buy into segments absent in the Nifty 50, will find manufacturing a good fit. "The sector appears to be transitioning into the early-to-mid phase of a broader structural capital expenditure and earnings cycle-an environment that has historically supported sustained wealth creation," says R Sivakumar, chief investment officer, Axis Mutual Fund. Sivakumar believes after a relatively subdued 2025, the outlook for 2026 indicates recovery underpinned by continued policy support, strengthening domestic demand and Global supply chain diversification.131494387The BSE India Manufacturing TRI has gained 7.3% year-on-year and 15.8% annually over a three-year period, outperforming the 4% and 9.3% return of the Nifty 50 in that order. Despite the outperformance, analysts believe this theme merits investment as there are new opportunities coming up in the manufacturing space in addition to traditional opportunities.A rapid expansion in the global data center capacity has given rise to demand for power equipment, cooling systems, prefabricated industrial modules and speciality materials. In addition, geopolitical developments are forcing countries to move to green energy with focus on electric vehicles and renewables. Supply chain disruptions on account of tariffs in Europe are also bringing in opportunities for India.
The recent Supreme Court (SC) judgment on online gaming and betting is expected to have wider implications across gambling, horse racing, and casinos, experts feel. The court clarified that the GST valuation framework is not confined to any one segment but applies across betting and gambling activities.The ruling makes it clear that the tax framework cannot be read narrowly. “Rule 31A… applies broadly to all betting, gambling and horse racing… Limiting its applicability only to horse racing would render parts of the rule otiose,” a PwC India note on the SC ruling said.Nitin Vijaivergia, partner at Pricewaterhouse & Co LLP, said the judgment upholds the imposition of the top GST slab on online gaming platforms, triggering significant retrospective tax exposure. The court’s reasoning also centres on how such transactions are structured. It has been clarified that in betting and gambling, valuation can be based on the full amount staked and not merely on a narrower measure.“Section 15(1)… permits valuation based on the entire stake,” and “merely because a different method of valuation… may also have been possible, it does not render the Rule unconstitutional,” the note added.For online gaming and casinos, the judgment clarifies when tax liability arises. The court held that the taxable event is triggered when players commit funds to participate in games with uncertain outcomes and no longer retain control over those funds.This also alters the treatment of player funds. The ruling notes that once amounts are committed for participation, “such arrangements cannot be considered deposits or entrustments,” and “the entire staked amount is treated as consideration for the supply.”In the case of casinos, the position is very clear. The court held that tax would be levied on each instance of staking money on an uncertain outcome, and not on the operator’s net earnings or gross gaming revenue.“The mention of staking money on ‘uncertain future outcomes’ may have broader implications for promotional and skill contests with deterministic scoring, and similar other formats. Key operational elements such as wallet architecture, re-deposits, and cashback will be crucial to determine tax demands, especially considering amendments to GST Rules 31 and 31B affecting valuation,” Vijaivergia said.Tax experts say that, broadly, the GST law will now apply where money or money’s worth is staked on uncertain outcomes, and such amounts are treated as consideration for the supply.
Shares of Titagarh Rail Systems gained nearly 3% to hit the day's high of Rs 857 on the BSE on Wednesday after Wall Street major Jefferies raised the target price to Rs 990 from Rs 810, implying an upside of 19% from current market levels.With a Buy rating, the international brokerage raised the target by 23%. Jefferies said Titagarh Rail Systems delivered a stronger-than-expected quarter, and improving execution is likely to drive a re-rating of the stock going forward. The brokerage believes Titagarh is well-positioned to benefit from rising demand for passenger and metro coaches, supported by government-led infrastructure initiatives. It estimates a 44% EPS CAGR over FY26-30 and expects the company's strong order book in the passenger segment to provide healthy earnings visibility.Titagarh delivered 64 coaches in FY26, ahead of Jefferies' estimate of 60 coaches. While this fell short of the management's earlier guidance of 100-120 coaches, the shortfall was largely anticipated due to execution delays in the first half of FY26.Management has reiterated confidence in delivering 200-220 coaches in FY27, compared with Jefferies' estimate of 193 coaches, citing the resolution of initial execution challenges. On the flagship Vande Bharat project, the company expects to deliver two trains in FY27, in line with Jefferies' projections, with the prototype scheduled for supply in the December 2026 quarter.Margins in the March quarter came in significantly ahead of expectations at 19%, compared with Jefferies' estimate of 12%, supported by a sharp increase in execution of the Bengaluru Metro project, which is being executed as a job contract. Management has guided for margins of around 12% in the near term, with a gradual improvement towards 15% as the company advances up the technology value chain.Rail wagon sales declined 29% year-on-year due to supply-side constraints. While Jefferies expects wagon sales to fall a further 5% in FY27, it forecasts a largely stable trajectory over FY27-30, supported by its estimate that Indian Railways' cargo volumes could reach around 3 billion tonnes by FY35, compared with the FY30 target.The company currently has an order book of 6,500 wagons, providing visibility for about 97% of Jefferies' FY27 wagon sales estimates, although visibility beyond FY27 remains limited. Separately, Titagarh has secured 28% capital assistance for its brownfield shipbuilding expansion plans and is evaluating technology partnerships and potential joint ventures with shipyards.The brokerage noted that a recent report by Live Mint indicated Indian Railways is considering an order for 1 lakh wagons, which could significantly improve earnings visibility for wagon manufacturers. The valuation assigns 30x March 2028 estimated EPS to the core business, up from 25x previously, reflecting positive developments around potential wagon orders and the upcoming wheel joint venture, which it values at 2.5x its investment value. Key risks to the outlook include delays in wagon orders or wheel supplies from Indian Railways, as well as weaker-than-expected execution.Titagarh Rail Q4 snapshotTitagarh Rail reported a net profit for the quarter at Rs 53.96 crore, compared to a net loss of Rs 122.4 crore that the company reported last year.Titagarh Rail's revenue in the March quarter declined by 12.9% to Rs 875.4 crore from Rs 1,005.6 crore in the previous year.The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) declined 4.4% to Rs 97.3 crore in the March quarter from Rs 96.56 crore last year, while margins stood at 11% from 10% last year. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
New Delhi: Transrail Lighting, a leading turnkey engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) company, on Tuesday said it has bagged new orders worth Rs 575 crore primarily in the transmission and distribution (T&D), civil construction and pole business.As of March 31, the company's unexecuted order book (including L1 or Lowest Bidder position) stood at Rs 16,361 crore, up 12 per cent year-on-year, Transrail Lighting said in an exchange filing."The orders in the T&D segment including construction of a 500 kV HVDC line for a marquee customer, supply of our products in international markets, specialised civil construction job and pole supplies, highlights our diversified capabilities and competencies," the company's MD & CEO Randeep Narang said.Mumbai-based Transrail Lighting is an EPC company primarily engaged in T&D with operations spanning civil, railways, poles and lighting segments. The company has a presence across 63 countries.For FY26, the company posted a net profit of Rs 403.59 crore, up 23 per cent from Rs 328.68 crore in 2024-25. Its total income also rose over 29 per cent to Rs 6,928.83 crore from Rs 5,353 crore in FY25.
China is pitching itself as the global fulcrum for the next phase of artificial intelligence and a legion of robotics companies is lining up initial public offerings to test investor appetite.Unitree Robotics, one of the most recognizable names in the industry after its robots practicing martial arts made headlines, on Monday received approval for a listing in Shanghai. Its IPO will serve as an early test for what could be a broader wave of offerings. Hong Kong alone has at least 46 robotics-related companies in the pipeline, more than 10% of applicants, according to a report. Companies that have filed IPO applications include Leju Robotics and Deep Robotics. “Chinese humanoids are one step closer to IPOs, igniting market interest on humanoids in the second half of 2026,” Sheng Zhong, head of China industrials research at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note. “Funds from most of the Chinese humanoids’ IPOs will go toward R&D, especially robot models.” The deep pipeline of robotics IPOs mirrors the fast rise of China’s AI ecosystem, where an array of listings whipped up an investor frenzy in the past six months. It also aligns with Beijing’s push to shift high-tech industries from innovation to large-scale deployment. China is rushing to set the pace of funding, industrialization and ultimately leadership in what Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang calls “physical AI.” Shares of OneRobotics (Shenzhen) Co. jumped as much as 18% in Hong Kong on Tuesday, while component maker Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. gained as much as 11% on the mainland. 131456136“This is the decade of the robot – and it belongs to China,” Barclays analysts, including Zornitsa Todorova, wrote in a note last month. “This leadership reflects a decade-long, state-guided push.”The firm says China’s robotics roll-out is already unmatched, accounting for 50% of global industrial robots and 85% of humanoids in 2025. Backed by coordinated industrial policy and tight supply-chain control, humanoids could reach about 3.8% of the nation’s labor capacity by 2035, it estimates. Unitree got a nice shoutout from Nvidia’s Huang on Monday, when he showcased his company’s endeavors in robotic AI. The two companies have partnered to build humanoid “reference” machines, featuring five-fingered hands and built-in chips to replace cumbersome “Frankenrobots” in research labs.Some investors remain more cautious, though, when looking at the companies’ fundamentals. Many robotics firms are expected to burn cash for years and concerns are mounting that valuations could run ahead of earnings.A gauge of humanoid robot stocks has fallen about 13% this year, after registering a 47% gain in 2025. ChinaAMC CSI Robot ETF, a major exchange-traded fund tracking robot-related stocks, has seen net fund outflows for most of this year. Valuations were also elevated, with the sector trading at about 40 times forward earnings, compared with about 14 times for the CSI 300 Index, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.“Investors trading at such elevated valuations are typically not driven by long-term fundamentals, but rather by the pursuit of short-term price gains,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “It indicates that sentiment is driven more by market dynamics than by conviction or long-term vision.”The state-run China Securities Journal also struck a cautious tone in an editorial published Tuesday, warning that pre-IPO valuations may outpace fundamentals, with many firms still unprofitable, raising the risk of a sharp correction if growth or commercialization disappoints. Still, prospective issuers can look at the performance of China tech IPOs this year, with many listings thousands of times oversubscribed and producing big gains on their debuts. Two of those companies, AI model developers Knowledge Atlas Technology Joint Stock Co. and MiniMax Group Inc. last month gained inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index after massive rallies since their January listings. For investors, the robotics companies can also offer a way to benefit from the rapid expansion of a cutting edge industry, said Zhou Nan, founder and investment director of Shenzhen Long Hui Fund Management Co.“With continued advances in AI, the robotics sector is poised for substantial long-term growth,” Zhou said. “Robotics is expected to become a key driver of enterprise value, and progressively complement or replace human labor across a wide range of use cases.”
New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."
Shares of Inox Wind tumbled 8% on Monday after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 105.68 crore for the January-March quarter of FY26, down 45% year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 190 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.Shares of the company crashed to Rs 85.61 apiece on NSE, the lowest level since April 10 this year. The firm’s revenue from operations, meanwhile, fell over 2% YoY to Rs 1,244 crore during the fourth quarter of the financial year, which ended on March 31, 2026, from Rs 1,275 crore in the year-ago period. Total income declined marginally to Rs 1,306 crore, while total expenses increased more than 5% YoY to Rs 1,162 crore during the quarter under review.Inox Wind’s EBITDA declined 6% YoY to Rs 333 crore. For the entire financial year 2026, the company reported a 3% rise in bottom line to Rs 449 crore.JM Financial on Inox WindJM Financial highlighted that the company’s Q4 results were an “all-around” miss on estimates. Its revenue was nearly 25% lower than the brokerage’s estimates. “Since management has not shared details, we estimate execution of 85 MW versus 252 MW QoQ/236 MW YoY. Adjusted PAT moderated to Rs 1.1 billion (-44% YoY, -55% JMFe, -52% consensus). The company has an order book of 3.1GW including 1.5 GW from CESC and 750 MW from group companies. Given the challenges in connectivity, RoW and PPAs, we expect IWL to execute 900 MW/1,100 MW during FY27/28,” it said.The domestic brokerage maintained its ‘Add’ rating on the shares of Inox Wind, but reduced its target price to Rs 101 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 9% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 93.02 apiece.Motilal Oswal on Inox WindMotilal Oswal also highlighted that Inox Wind reported a weak set of numbers for Q4. However, it highlighted that the visibility of recurring captive order inflows from Inox Clean, which plans to add 3GW of renewable capacity annually with 20-30% expected to be wind-based, management’s strategy to gradually increase pure equipment supply contracts’ share in the order book from 27% currently to 75% over time, which should improve working capital efficiency and margins, and management’s FY27 revenue growth guidance of 75% YoY with EBITDA margins of 20-22% were the key things it liked about the results.The domestic brokerage lowered its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 7% and 6% respectively. It maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the shares of Inox Wind, with a target price of Rs 110 per share, implying an upside potential of more than 18% from the stock’s previous closing price.Inox Wind share priceInox Wind shares have fallen more than 4% in one week and around 8% in one month to close at Rs 93.02 apiece on Friday. The stock is down more than 24% so far in 2026 and nearly 52% in one year.In the longer term, the shares of the company have delivered returns of more than 169% over three years and 386% over five years. The company currently has a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 9,307 crore. The stock’s P/E ratio stands at nearly 36.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
New Delhi: The price of 19-kg commercial LPG cylinders has been increased from June 1, raising input costs for hotels, restaurants and other commercial establishments, while domestic cooking gas rates have been left unchanged, according to industry sources.In Delhi, the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been raised by Rs 42 to Rs 3,113.50. In Kolkata, the increase is steeper at Rs 53.50, taking the retail price to Rs 3,255.50.The price revision comes amid heightened efforts by the government and oil marketing companies (OMCs) to strengthen fuel security and ensure uninterrupted availability of petroleum products across the country.Also read | Refiners adjust to new crude mix as Hormuz crisis tightens supplyIndustry sources said the price of 5-kg Free Trade LPG (FTL) cylinders has also been increased by Rs 11. Following the revision, a 5-kg FTL cylinder will cost Rs 821.50 in Delhi. The revised rates came into effect on June 1.There has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders, providing relief to household consumers at a time when global energy markets continue to remain volatile.The latest revision follows the government's assurance that adequate stocks of petroleum products are available and that there is no shortage of LPG, petrol or diesel in the country.Speaking at an inter-ministerial briefing on Friday, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said the government is working to bolster energy security through strategic reserves and enhanced inventory management.She said OMCs have been advised to maintain a minimum LPG reserve equivalent to 30 days of consumption and that efforts are underway to strengthen crude oil reserves as well.Also read | India cuts export duties on petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuelAccording to Sharma, all refineries are operating at optimum levels and domestic LPG production has reached record highs. She said inventories of key fuels remain comfortable and no instances of LPG distributors running dry have been reported.At the same time, authorities have observed unusual spikes in fuel sales in several regions. While part of the increase is attributed to seasonal agricultural demand, bulk purchases have also contributed to higher offtake.Government data showed overall fuel sales growth exceeding 30%, with 14 districts recording more than 100% growth in petrol sales. In contrast, six districts witnessed a decline of about 38% in sales by OMCs.To prevent diversion and hoarding, enforcement agencies have intensified inspections. Over the past four days, around 6,500 raids were conducted involving LPG distribution networks, resulting in multiple FIRs and arrests. Separate inspections at retail fuel outlets led to the seizure of significant quantities of petrol and diesel, along with legal action against violators.Sharma said domestic refineries are currently producing around 50-52 thousand metric tonnes of LPG per day against demand of about 72 thousand metric tonnes, with the balance being met through imports. She added that the backlog in LPG supplies has narrowed to around 4.5 days, indicating an improvement in distribution efficiency.The increase in commercial LPG prices is expected to have a bearing on operating costs for eateries, catering businesses and other commercial users, even as household consumers remain insulated from the latest revision.
BEIJING: Oil prices rose more than 2% in early trading on Monday after Israel ordered troops to move further into Lebanon in the battle with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group, despite a ceasefire announced more than six weeks ago. U.S. crude futures rose $2.17 or 2.48% to $89.53 a barrel as of 2312 GMT (Sunday). Brent futures rose $1.93 or 2.12% to $93.05 a barrel. The stepped-up fighting, coming just after the U.S. hosted Israeli-Lebanon peace talks in Washington on Friday, dimmed expectations that the U.S. and Iran could soon announce an extension to their ceasefire agreement, which had driven Brent and WTI to settle up 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively, on Friday. The Israel-Lebanon conflict has been the broadest spillover of the Iran war. It started on March 2 when Hezbollah began firing rockets and drones across the border into Israel to back its ally Iran. The two sides reached a ceasefire in mid-April but have continued to trade fire. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend a ceasefire with Iran announced in early April, giving negotiators more time to seek a permanent end to the conflict and find a solution to the underlying dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Israel would be key to any such deal, and Iran has also said repeatedly that Hezbollah must be included. Meanwhile, concerns are rising about mines in key oil and gas shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. That could slow the process of reopening the strait and mean that relief comes more slowly for the oil market even after it is reopened. "Even if an agreement is reached, it won't deliver a flood of supply," Sycamore said. An Axios reporter said on X on Friday that Iran had dropped more mines in the strait earlier in the week, shortly after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that attempts to lay more mines would be a violation of the ceasefire. Hormuz is a conduit for about a fifth of global oil and gas flows and Iran has effectively closed it since the conflict began with U.S. and Israeli strikes in February. Concerns over supply outweighed lacklustre economic data from China over the weekend, which showed stalling factory activity. This added to concerns the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum, weighed down by a contraction in exports and cost pressures.
New Delhi: The government is examining 500-odd heavily imported products including machinery, fertilisers, chemicals, cotton staple fibre, plastics, silicon wafers and carbon fibres, to identify localisation opportunities and reduce dependence on overseas supply. The commerce and industry ministry is collating data from different ministries on import dependence, estimated time and capital investment required to achieve commercially viable domestic manufacturing capability, and national strategic relevance of these products, officials privy to the development said.The idea is to reduce the country's import bill and build supply resilience amid the ongoing West Asia crisis.The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) is "analysing data such as production capacity and bottlenecks faced by industry," one of the officials said.131428063The department has sought information such as the extent to which domestic demand for the product is met through imports, indicating vulnerability to external supply and the need for localisation, and the importance of the product in ensuring continuity, resilience, and stability of domestic manufacturing and essential downstream sectors.The exercise also covers harvester-threshers, parts of turbo jets and certain graphite, officials said.DPIIT is likely to shortlist around 100 items where the imports are high but the country has capacity to produce them locally, another person aware of the development said.High import dependence means where 60% or more of the domestic demand for the product is met through imports while medium is where imports are 30-60%. "Electronics and chemicals are two key sectors where imports are huge but the potential to export is also significant," another official said.India's goods import bill stood at $774.98 billion in FY26, led by oil at $174 billion, electronics at $116.17 billion, and gold at $72 billion. The country also imported organic and inorganic chemicals worth $28 billion last fiscal.Makeup preparations, dishwashers, industrial valves and certain silicon wafers also figure in the list of the products whose imports are being studied.The exercise comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to help preserve foreign exchange and contain the country's rising import bill amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
The markets traded in a volatile and largely range-bound manner through the week before ending with a modest loss. Nifty oscillated in a 605-point range, registering a high of 24,089.80 and a low of 23,484.75 before settling near the lower end of the weekly range.The sharp decline witnessed on Friday was largely driven by MSCI rebalancing-related flows, resulting in accelerated profit-taking and a weak close for the week. India VIX rose by 9.60% to 16.19, reflecting a pickup in volatility expectations and some increase in market nervousness following the late-week selloff. Nifty ended the week with a loss of 171.55 points (-0.72%).The broader technical structure remains in a consolidation phase. However, the sharp selloff towards the end of the week has once again dragged the immediate resistance levels lower, with the 23,800 zone emerging as the first significant hurdle that the index must overcome. As long as Nifty remains below this level, the ongoing consolidation is likely to continue.On the downside, the index continues to hold above the lower boundary with the support zone placed in the 23,300-23,400 area. A decisive move beyond either end of thisrange could set the tone for the next directional move.The markets are likely to begin the coming week on a cautious note after Friday's sharp decline. Immediate resistance levels are placed at 23,800 and 24,000, while supports come in at 23,350 and 23,100.A sustained move above 23,800 would improve the near-term technical outlook and may trigger fresh buying interest. Conversely, any violation of the 23,300 area could invite renewed weakness and increase downside pressure.The weekly RSI stands at 40.84 and remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued momentum and showing no divergence against price. The weekly MACD remainsbelow its signal line and continues to stay in negative territory, reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum.A study of the overall pattern shows that Nifty continues to trade within a consolidation beneath a key supply area. The index remains below its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, placed near 24,936 and 24,535, respectively, indicating that the intermediate trend has yet to regain full strength. At the same time, the index remains comfortably above its rising 200-week moving average near 22,057, keeping the long-term structure intact. The ongoing compression between channel support and overhead resistance suggests that the market may be approaching a decisive phase where a directional breakout could emerge over the coming weeks.Given the current technical setup, traders should continue to maintain a balanced and selective approach. The rise in India VIX alongside the failure to sustain higher levels warrants caution, especially near overhead resistance. Fresh buying should remain stock-specific and focused on pockets displaying relative strength. Traders would be better served by protecting gains, maintaining disciplined risk management, and avoiding aggressive directional bets until the index confirms strength by moving above 23,800. The coming week is likely to reward selectivity and prudent positioning rather than broad-based aggressive exposure.In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of allthe listed stocks.The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) shows that the Nifty Midcap 100, Energy, Media, Pharma, and Metal Indices are inside the leading quadrant. While the Pharma and Energy groups are showing a slowdown in their relative momentum, overall, these groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets.The Nifty Infrastructure and the PSE Indices are inside the weakening quadrant. Collectively speaking, these groups may see a slowdown in their relative performanceagainst the broader markets.The PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty Bank, Services Sector, Financial Services, and Auto Indices also continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. These groups are set to relatively underperform the broader markets. The Nifty IT Index is also in the lagging quadrant; however, it is showing a sharp improvement in relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.The FMCG and the Realty Index are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue to improve their relative performance against the benchmark.Important Note: RRGTM chartsshow the relative strength and momentum of a group ofstocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against the NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
It was a strong week for global markets as oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels in seven weeks, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation after reports suggested the United States, Israel and Iran were nearing a much-awaited peace deal agreement. Oil prices this weekBrent crude tumbled about 11% during the week, marking its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 9%, its biggest weekly drop in six weeks. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since mid-April. On Friday, Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 a barrel, down $1.66 or 1.8%. WTI crude futures closed at $87.36 a barrel, a decline of $1.54 or 1.7%.The three-month conflict involving the U.S. and Iran has repeatedly seen expectations of a potential resolution that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies pass. While both sides indicated that an agreement may be near, their descriptions of the proposed deal continued to differ.U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Iran to immediately reopen the strait. The closure of the vital waterway has pushed energy prices higher across global markets. This week, trading has remained highly volatile, with both Brent and WTI swinging by as much as $6 on changing signals surrounding the possibility of the strait reopening.Geopolitical tensions escalated on Thursday after fresh U.S. strikes targeted an Iranian military facility overnight, despite ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran.Iran's Revolutionary Guards later claimed responsibility for a strike on a U.S. airbase, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. The location of the base was not disclosed.Where is oil headed?Market analysts noted that even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months. Any damaged energy infrastructure may require an even longer period to return to full operation.Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could postpone stability in global oil markets until 2027. He said nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week could be affected by continued disruptions. Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil producer.Morgan Stanley described the oil market as being in "a race against time," saying the factors that have so far prevented a more pronounced rise in crude prices could begin to fade if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June.According to the brokerage, higher U.S. crude exports and softer demand from China have helped absorb part of the supply shock. However, it cautioned that an extended shutdown of the strait could tighten global oil supplies again if disruptions persist beyond the levels that the U.S. and China can comfortably offset.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Guwahati: The Manipur cabinet meeting discussed related to the appeal made by the Prime Minister for various steps to be taken by the State Governments and citizens of the country in view of the global challenges at present.The State Cabinet decided to implement the various points mentioned in the appeal of the Prime Minister, including reducing the size of VIP convoy following a security review, start ‘work from home’, freeze Government funded foreign travel, and take steps to reduce non-essential Government expenditure.Also Read: Manipur CM Y Khemchand Singh hails Centre's decision to form panel on demographic changeThe meeting while approving the filling up of 173 posts of Auxiliary Nurse and Midwife (ANM) in the Family Welfare Department, with funding from the Central Government, the State Cabinet took a decision to approve age relaxation of 2 (two) years for all recruitments yet to be notified by State Government departments.State Cabinet approved the rates of compensation related to land acquisition for expansion of the Imphal – Jiribam and Imphal – Dimapur National Highways. These decisions will lead to faster implementation and timely completion of these projects, which will greatly benefit the state.The Cabinet approved the rationalization of posts under the Manipur State Power Company Limited (MSPCL) so that the employees can have adequate promotional avenues. This shows the intention of the State Government that employee welfare is a priority.The cabinet also approved the extension of the critical ‘Manipur Water Supply Project’ funded by the New Development Bank (NDB) and approved the proposal of Tourism Department for implementation of the ‘Loktak Experience Project’ which will develop Loktak as an Iconic Tourist Destination.
Mumbai: A prolonged West Asia conflict represents a key downside risk to India's economic outlook according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as it projected a lower real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.9% for 2026-27 in its annual report compared with 7.6% estimated for the previous financial year.The central bank said the impact of the conflict is likely to remain contained in the near term but warned that an escalation could derail India's otherwise positive growth trajectory."Going forward, India's growth outlook remains positive, though the West Asia conflict and the attendant risks of elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and weather-related disruptions could pose headwinds to growth and inflation in the short run," the Reserve Bank said.Also Read: Iran war - PSBs asked to stay preparedPositive Macro OutlookIt listed healthy corporate and bank balance sheets, government's continued thrust on capital expenditure and the implementation of trade agreements with key partners as positives to help sustain investment and growth momentum."Nevertheless, in a highly uncertain global environment, continuous assessment of the evolving developments is warranted to frame the appropriate policy response on an ongoing basis," the report said.131398139The central bank said that although portfolio flows exhibited a net outflow in 2025-26, strong buffers in the form of ample foreign exchange reserves and modest external debt liabilities continue to impart strength to the external sector, contributing to overall macroeconomic and financial stability.Adequate food grain stocks, sufficient reservoir levels and stable agricultural prospects despite possible El Nino conditions and above-normal summer temperature will keep inflation aligned to the target in 2026-27, according to the RBI. However, upside risks may emanate from a surge in global fuel and commodity prices amid geopolitical tensions, potential spillovers to input and wage costs and volatility in exchange rates.Also Read: India-US trade pact may be weeks away - US Ambassador to India Sergio GorThe central bank projected consumer price inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6%, with risks tilted to the upside, significantly higher than its revised estimate of 3.7% for the previous fiscal.Pressure on BondsDomestic bond yields could face upward pressure if the global monetary easing cycle stalls or reverses in response to persistent oil price shocks amid fragile conditions in West Asia, it said.Geopolitical risk has re-emerged as the dominant drag on global growth in 2026, according to the RBI. "In IMF's baseline scenario, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2026 (as against the earlier projection of 3.3% in January), while global merchandise and services trade volume is expected to decelerate to 2.8% in 2026. Further intensification of the conflict, its prolongation or widening geographical spread, if any, remain the key downside risks to the global economic outlook," the report said."However, the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, along with the liquidity injection measures by the Reserve Bank, is expected to contain the upward pressure on yields. Equity market dynamics would be conditioned by evolving geopolitical developments, global financial market volatility and foreign portfolio investment flows; a deterioration in risk sentiment alongside strengthening of the US dollar could trigger capital outflows," said the RBI's annual report. "At the same time, ongoing efforts to expand local currency settlement framework are expected to further advance rupee based cross-border transactions."
US President Donald Trump said on May 29 that Iran must commit to never developing a nuclear weapon and ensure unrestricted shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz, while indicating that discussions involving Tehran, Washington and international agencies were moving towards a possible understanding on key security issues in the region.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz should remain open without any restrictions or tolls for commercial shipping traffic in both directions. He also claimed that naval restrictions imposed earlier in the region would be lifted, allowing stranded ships to resume movement.Trump further said any water mines present in the strategic waterway would be removed or destroyed in coordination with Iranian authorities. He claimed that US naval operations had already neutralised several mines in the region.Also read | US inflation rises to 3.8% in April, highest level in nearly 3 years"The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to," Trump's post read."I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" he signed off.The remarks come amid heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia and renewed global concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, maritime security and crude oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, handling a significant share of global crude and LNG shipments.Any disruption in the waterway has historically triggered volatility in international oil markets and raised concerns among major energy-importing nations, including India.Also read | US goods trade deficit narrows in April on strong exportsTrump also referred to Iran’s enriched nuclear material, saying the stockpile buried underground after a previous US B-2 bomber strike would be excavated and destroyed under international supervision. He said the process would involve close coordination between the United States, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).According to Trump, no financial exchange would take place as part of the proposed arrangement until further decisions are taken. He added that several other issues had also been agreed upon, though he did not elaborate on details.The former US president said he would meet officials in the Situation Room before taking a final decision on the matter.The comments assume significance as tensions between the US and Iran have remained elevated over Tehran’s nuclear activities, sanctions and regional security concerns. Recent developments in the Middle East have also intensified fears of escalation that could impact global trade routes and energy prices.International crude oil markets have remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts have warned that any prolonged uncertainty in the region could affect fuel prices, shipping costs and supply chains globally.India, which imports a majority of its crude oil requirements, closely monitors developments in the Gulf region as volatility in oil prices has direct implications for inflation, fuel costs and the country’s trade balance.