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US President Donald Trump has spent years attacking his predecessor Barack Obama for what he called a giveaway to Iran. The image of "pallets of cash" became one of his favorite political talking points, a symbol of what he portrayed as weakness in dealing with Tehran.Yet the irony of the current moment is becoming harder to ignore. As negotiations to end the latest US-Iran confrontation stall, Iran is demanding access to billions of dollars in frozen assets, and the success of any deal may depend on whether Trump agrees to some form of financial relief. The president who built his Iran policy around rejecting Obama's approach may now find himself confronting the same reality that faced previous administrations -- diplomacy with Iran often comes with a price tag.Pay $12 billion now, and $12 billion laterAn indication of how central money has become to the negotiations came from Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in an exclusive interview with CNN. According to Rezaei, the negotiations have reached a deadlock and the responsibility for breaking it lies squarely with Trump. He said Iran wants the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, with $12 billion to be made available immediately after an interim agreement is signed and another $12 billion at a later stage.Also Read | Iran says frozen funds key to progress in US talksRezaei termed the demand not a concession from Washington but as a test of American intentions. "If he wants to reach an agreement with Iran, this $24 billion is a test of trust that Iran wants to have with Trump," he told CNN. "This is our own money, not America's money."The significance of the demand extends beyond the amount involved. By publicly linking the prospects of peace to the release of frozen assets, Iran has effectively made financial compensation the central political hurdle in the negotiations.Trump's Obama problemFor Trump, the issue is not as much financial as deeply political. CNN reported that Trump has repeatedly instructed his team that any agreement with Iran must be viewed as stronger than the 2015 nuclear accord negotiated by Obama. Equally important, he wants to avoid anything that resembles the controversial payments that became a focal point of Republican criticism a decade ago.Throughout his political career, Trump has portrayed the Obama administration's handling of Iran as evidence of weak leadership. Recently, he revived his criticism of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, describing it as a horrible deal and insisting that any agreement he reaches will be far better. That political history now threatens to constrain his negotiating options. A deal that includes billions of dollars flowing to Iran could invite immediate comparisons with the very agreement he spent years denouncing.Also Read | Iran retains about 22% of missile stockpile, says TrumpWhat Obama actually didThe comparison is unavoidable because financial relief was also a major feature of the Obama-era approach. The JCPOA, finalized in 2015 after negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 powers, imposed strict limits on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The agreement capped uranium enrichment, reduced centrifuge capacity and established what experts described as one of the most intrusive inspection regimes ever negotiated.The deal also coincided with the release of $1.7 billion to Iran, a figure that Trump and other critics frequently cited as evidence of appeasement. Critics argued that sanctions relief and financial compensation rewarded Iranian behaviour across the region.Supporters of the agreement took a different view. They argued that much of the money involved consisted of Iranian assets that had already belonged to Iran and that the deal successfully halted Tehran's progress toward a nuclear weapon while providing unprecedented transparency into its nuclear program.Former US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, who helped negotiate the agreement, told CNBC that the JCPOA's most important achievement was its extraordinary verification system. Arms control experts similarly maintain that the deal effectively constrained Iran's nuclear ambitions before it unraveled.Why the current situation is more difficultThe irony for Trump is that negotiations now are taking place under conditions far less favorable than those that existed in 2015. After the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran gradually breached many of the agreement's restrictions. It expanded uranium enrichment, accumulated a much larger stockpile of nuclear material and scaled back some transparency measures.Many think that any new agreement must address a more advanced Iranian nuclear programme and a more complicated political environment. There is also the added challenge of rebuilding trust after years of mutual escalation. That reality means economic incentives have become even more important. Tehran is demanding tangible benefits upfront rather than promises of future relief. From Iran's perspective, accepting new restrictions without immediate financial gains would be politically difficult.Trump's search for a political workaroundTrump's advisers are acutely aware of the political risks. According to CNN, administration officials are exploring mechanisms that would allow Iran to receive financial relief without creating the appearance of a direct US payment. One possibility involves third countries such as Qatar releasing funds. Another would permit access to frozen assets while restricting their use to humanitarian purchases such as food, medicine and agricultural goods. There have also been discussions about creating reconstruction funds financed largely by Gulf states rather than the United States.These proposals reflect an important reality. The debate is no longer about whether Iran should receive economic relief at some stage. It is increasingly about how that relief can be structured so that Trump can claim he has not repeated Obama's mistakes. In that sense, the dispute is becoming as much about political messaging as about financial policy.Leverage versus peaceThe White House remains reluctant to surrender what it views as one of its strongest bargaining tools. Trump has publicly insisted that the United States will retain control over frozen Iranian funds until Iran meets Washington's demands. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has similarly emphasised that sanctions relief should follow compliance rather than precede it.The administration's concern is straightforward. Once funds are released, Washington loses a major source of leverage. That leverage could prove critical during the highly technical second phase of negotiations focused on Iran's nuclear program. Iran, however, sees the issue differently. For Tehran, immediate access to frozen assets is evidence that the United States is negotiating in good faith. Without such a gesture, Iranian leaders appear unwilling to commit themselves to a broader settlement. That difference in perspective has created the current impasse.The choice facing TrumpThe strategic dilemma confronting Trump is becoming increasingly clear. He can maintain a hard line and refuse any significant financial concession, preserving political consistency but risking the collapse of negotiations. Or he can accept some form of economic relief for Iran, potentially unlocking a broader peace agreement but exposing himself to accusations that he has embraced a version of the same approach he once condemned.Rezaei's comments to CNN show how central that decision has become. By presenting the release of $24 billion as a test of trust, Iran has effectively challenged Trump to choose between ideological purity and diplomatic pragmatism. For a president who built his Iran policy in opposition to Obama's legacy, that may be the most uncomfortable choice of all. If peace ultimately requires releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, Trump would be seen as eating his words when he had asked Iran for complete surrender.
As India sees incessant FII selloff so far this year, the government and RBI announced a slew of measures to ease foreign investments in government securities, with analysts suggesting that these may provide some short-term support for Dalal Street.India scrapped the long-term capital gains tax on investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in government securities through an ordinance issued on Friday. The government has now exempted FIIs from tax on any interest income from government securities, as well as capital gains arising from their sale, exchange or transfer, according to an official gazette. Separately, while announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also unveiled a series of measures to boost FPI investments, including expanding the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to cover new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year government bonds.Limits on investments by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments without Sebi registration are being raised, allowing them to invest larger amounts without regulatory registration. The facility is also proposed to be extended to all Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), bringing them on par with NRIs and OCIs. This came as the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%What does this mean for Indian stock market?The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without Sebi registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, which is expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows, said Arun Poddar, CEO of Choice International.He highlighted that equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. “This move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period,” he said.The government's move to exempt Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities is “highly positive” for the capital markets, said Sumit Singhania, Head of Research at Bajaj Broking. “This fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments,” he added.The policy is distinctly positive for bond markets and well-capitalized Banks and NBFCs, which benefit from targeted hedging subsidies and systemic stability, according to Archit Doshi, Senior Vice President at PL (Prabhudas Lilladher) AMC. “Conversely, one should be underweight rate-sensitive sectors, which remain highly vulnerable to margin compression, higher inflation expectations, and the threat of the RBI reaching its tightening tipping point,” he said.Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO of Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund, also said that the announcements aimed at enabling more dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. “The concessional swap facility should help stabilise short end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term,” he said.For equities and debt markets, the measures to attract FII inflows are supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, they signal a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure, said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP of Research at Religare Broking.Sachin Bajaj, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, also said that the initiatives are expected to support capital inflows, deepen domestic bond markets, and provide support to the Indian rupee over the short to medium term.RBI’s hawkish tone and the Indian stock marketWhile the measures taken to attract FII inflows in the debt market will likely provide short-term support for Dalal Street, analysts advised caution over the RBI’s hawkish policy stance. While the RBI maintained its policy repo rate as per expectations, the tone was much more cautious than in previous meetings.Sachin Bajaj highlighted that the policy emphasised preserving macroeconomic stability amid the prevailing global macroeconomic environment. “We believe there are significant risks to inflation in the coming months due to the pass-through of higher commodity prices to consumers and elevated food prices resulting from a below-normal monsoon. Going forward, there is a risk of an upward revision in inflation projections, and given the evolving global backdrop, we believe the RBI is likely to maintain a prudent, data-dependent approach. Future policy actions will be contingent on evolving growth-inflation dynamics and global developments,” he added.Also read: Explained: Sebi's Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue inflation allegations against Rajesh ExportsWhile hawkish rhetoric without an accompanying rate hike provides a temporary respite for equity markets, it does not constitute an unequivocal endorsement of investment, particularly in highly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automotive, and consumer discretionary goods, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors.“Should inflation necessitate a rate increase later this year, these sectors are likely to experience pressure on both margins and demand. For investors, the current strategy emphasises capital preservation by focusing on high-quality equities with strong pricing power. This cautious approach is designed to navigate the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties until conditions stabilise,” the analyst added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Indian stock market closed nearly flat, with Sensex and Nifty ending the session in the green with marginal gains after seeing sharp upswings and downswings during the day.Sensex rose nearly 14 points to close at 74,360, while Nifty 50 rose around 11 points to end the session at 23,417, nearly unchanged from the previous session. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, fell over 3% to 15.77.Titan shares jumped 4% to lead gains on Sensex, while Zomato-parent Eternal jumped 3% to follow. ITC, Tech Mahindra, SBI, Bharat Electronics and ICICI Bank shares meanwhile gained around 1% each. On the other hand, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports and Tata Steel shares dropped around 15 each.Broader markets closed with higher gains, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices gaining around 0.5% each. Sectorally, Nifty Consumer Durables rallied more than 2%, while Nifty Metal declined 0.7%. Around 1,817 stocks advanced on NSE, while 1,474 declined and 105 remained unchanged.Rupee watchNotably, investors now await the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) meeting tomorrow. Meanwhile, rupee closed at 95.7850 per U.S. dollar, from 95.7050 on Wednesday.FIIs net sold Indian shares worth Rs 5,617 crore on Wednesday, according to data on NSE. They have net sold Indian equities worth more than Rs 39,625 crore in just four consecutive sessions.India may scrap capital gains tax on FPI investments in govt securitiesThe Indian government is planning to scrap capital gains tax on investments in government securities by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), a move which will likely shore up overseas capital inflows into the country, The Economic Times reported citing people familiar with the matter.The Cabinet, in a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday, approved the promulgation of an ordinance to amend the Income Tax Act to pave the way for this exemption, sources further told The Economic Times, adding that a notification is expected soon after the President gives her assent to the ordinance.What lies ahead?On Thursday, the benchmark index Nifty opened with a gap-down. However, the index staged a recovery from lower levels and eventually closed on a flat note. Notably, this marked the third consecutive session where Nifty found support near its prior swing low and rebounded thereafter, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. He however added that a sustained follow-up move on the upside is still required to confirm a potential reversal.“At present, the index continues to trade below its key moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest a sideways trend. The daily RSI has been oscillating within a narrow range for the last 40 trading sessions, in line with the RSI range shift rules, indicating lack of directional strength,” he said.Going ahead, Shah expects the 23,550–23,580 zone to act as an important hurdle for Nifty 50.. A sustained move above the 23,580 level could trigger an extension of the ongoing pullback rally, potentially paving the way towards the 23,700 mark, he said. On the downside, he sees 23,330–23,320 zone as likely to serve as a crucial support area.(With inputs from agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
ICICI Bank is well-positioned to sustain sector leadership with a healthy growth outlook and robust asset quality, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services while naming the heavyweight private lender its top ‘Buy’ within the banking sector even after the stock tumbled 10% in six months.The shares of ICICI Bank gained over 1% on Thursday to trade at Rs 1,258.40 apiece on NSE. The stock has however fallen over 1% in one week and 6% in 2026 so far. The stock has fallen more than 12% in one year.Despite the muted returns, Motilal Oswal maintained its bullish call for the shares of ICICI Bank. The domestic brokerage said that the private lender is well-positioned to sustain its growth momentum while maintaining profitability benchmarks. It expects the bank to deliver a 16% loan CAGR over FY26-FY28, led by strong growth in business banking and PL, while the corporate segment is also expected to witness healthy traction, supported by working capital demand.ICICI Bank’s liability franchise continues to remain best-in-class, supported by diversified acquisition engines and a rapidly expanding physical network, Motilal said. With a domestic CD ratio of 85.5% and LCR of 126%, the brokerage added that the bank is well placed to capitalize on growth opportunities compared to peers.“ICICI Bank is likely to maintain cost leadership despite meaningful investments in technology, customer delivery, analytics, and talent. ICICIBC’s asset quality remains robust, supported by disciplined underwriting, continued monitoring, and strong recoveries, while the bank maintains a healthy contingency buffer (0.9% of loans). The bank currently does not face additional portfolio stress from the West Asia crisis or ECL transition. Credit costs are, thus, expected to remain contained, with GNPA/NNPA improving to ~1.4%/0.3% by FY28E,” Motilal said.Motilal Oswal on ICICI Bank share priceThe brokerage acknowledged that ICICI Bank shares have delivered tepid performance over the past year, reflecting broader derating across large banking stocks amid persistent FII selling. However, with operating performance holding strong and sustained market share gains across key lending segments, Motilal expects a gradual rerating.It maintained its ‘Buy’ call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,750 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 41% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 1,242 apiece on NSE.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Shares of Alkem Laboratories witnessed block deals worth about Rs 930 crore on Tuesday, with promoter family entities selling shares to a clutch of domestic mutual funds and foreign institutional investors. According to NSE block deal data, a total of 17.88 lakh shares changed hands at Rs 5,200 apiece. The transaction value works out to about Rs 930 crore.On the sell side, Jayanti Sinha sold 12.38 lakh shares, while Samprada & Nanhamati Singh Family Trust offloaded 5.5 lakh shares. Together, the two sellers divested 17.88 lakh shares. The shares were acquired by a mix of domestic and foreign institutional investors.Among the largest buyers were ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, which purchased 9.04 lakh shares, and HDFC Mutual Fund, which bought 5.1 lakh shares. Other participants included DSP Mutual Fund, Nippon India Mutual Fund, Morgan Stanley Asia Singapore, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, Societe Generale and Edelweiss Mutual Fund.The deal comes after a strong run in Alkem Laboratories shares over the past year, supported by steady growth in its domestic formulations business, improving margins and a recovery in its US operations.Alkem is among India's leading pharmaceutical companies with a strong presence in acute therapies, chronic segments and international markets. The participation of large domestic mutual funds in the transaction suggests continued institutional interest in quality healthcare names despite broader market volatility.Shares of Alkem Laboratories are likely to remain in focus as investors assess the impact of the stake sale and changes in promoter shareholding following the transaction.
While the midcap index flirts with new peaks, strong corporate earnings have helped cool down previously stretched valuations. Nippon India's Rupesh Patel analyses the resilient Q4 FY26 earnings season, breaking down how a bottom-up investing strategy can help investors uncover reasonable entry points despite building geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds.Edited excerpts from a chat with Rupesh Patel, Senior Fund Manager - Equity Investments, Nippon India Mutual Fund:Your Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund delivered a strong 22% over the last 5 years, beating the benchmark. But given your Growth at Reasonable Price (GARP) philosophy, where are you actually finding "reasonable" valuations in a midcap market that many currently see as overheated?On an aggregate basis, the NSE Midcap 150 index has remained almost flat since September 2024. However, during this period, earnings have grown at a reasonable rate. In fact, midcap as a category has been the most resilient and delivered higher growth compared to other segments of the market. As a result, valuations today, though they appear higher compared to long-term averages, have corrected as compared to where we were in September 2024.Coming to Nippon India Growth Fund, we follow a bottom-up approach to construct the portfolio and buy stocks based on their relative attractiveness on risk-reward equation. Some of the businesses in the category may appear expensive in the near term; however, the size of the opportunity and their ability to maintain earnings growth at a reasonable rate over the long term make them attractive from a medium to longer-term perspective. You are overweight financials and underweight technology in the midcap fund. What's the rationale? How do you think midcap lenders and midcap IT companies are placed at this stage?Our OW stance on financials is on account of our exposure to lenders as well as other beneficiaries of financialization of savings like Life Insurance companies, asset management companies, Exchanges, etc. On the lending side, most of our exposure is to well-capitalised lenders where asset quality is largely expected to hold, Return on Assets/ Return on Equity remains healthy, and valuations are reasonable in the context of the overall market.In IT companies, we have been underweight since the last few quarters, largely owing to the risk of a slowdown in earnings growth on account of current geopolitical uncertainties and the impact of disruptions like AI. Valuations were also a concern till a few quarters back. Going ahead, as the dust settles and some of these companies evolve and adapt to new realities, growth will recover from current lows. Companies in this sector are generally capital efficient and generate free cash flow, making them attractive bets again as valuations turn favourable.Within the midcap space, how do you read the Q4 earnings season? What are your biggest takeaways for investors?Q4 earnings season for midcaps has turned out to be quite resilient, and most companies are delivering on expectations. However, going ahead, risks related to deterioration in the macro environment, cost inflation, and logistics remain relevant. If current geopolitical uncertainties continue, we must be cognizant of these risks and their impact on earnings and valuations. Given the growth trajectory, valuations and earnings, midcap companies are in a sweet spot. Would you agree?If we look at the last few quarters, midcap companies’ earnings have remained resilient. Most of them have delivered healthy earnings growth even in Q4, FY’26. However, aggregate returns of midcap companies as represented by the NSE Midcap 150 index have remained flat since September 2024, resulting in a valuation correction over this period. Further, midcap is a very diverse category with a universe representing multiple sectors and some unique and fast-growing profit pools that have the potential to grow meaningfully over the medium to long term; hence, on a bottom-up basis as well, opportunities exist in this segment of the market. How have you been reshuffling your portfolio to realign it with the realities of war?As mentioned earlier, we remain cognizant of risks arising on account of deteriorating macro conditions, inflation in costs and logistical challenges, if current geopolitical uncertainties persist. We also remain aware of the potential impact of these risks not only on earnings growth but also on market valuations. In some instances, current stock prices may already be reflecting risks of these uncertainties, making the risk-reward favourable. Hence, our approach is to remain aware of valuations and avoid vulnerable businesses.From a 3-5 year perspective, which sectors do you think are best placed at this stage - both from a growth as well as a valuation perspective?We remain positive on Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and select industrials.Within financials, we are positive on lenders as well as companies that benefit from a bigger trend on the financialization of savings. Accordingly, we have exposure to companies in the insurance space, Asset Management Companies, Exchanges and other financial services companies. On lenders, asset quality remains benign, they are well capitalised, generate decent Return on Assets (RoA) and Return on Equity (RoE) and valuations are reasonable.Consumer discretionary companies are likely to benefit from favourable demographics, growth in per capita incomes and trends on premiumization playing out in multiple categories over the medium to long term.On the industrial front, the reason to be positive is on account of various initiatives taken by the government to encourage manufacturing in India. Select companies in Auto ancillaries, Electronics manufacturing, precision engineering and defence-related segments can also do well. However, these are broad sectors, and winners will have to be picked on a bottom-up basis, considering factors like their manufacturing prowess, management strength and cost competitiveness.The midcap index has already hit a new peak this month, ahead of both small and largecaps. What's the reason behind this optimism, and do you see valuation risk building?Although the midcap index is close to an all-time high, its last 20 months' returns have been flat despite midcap companies as an aggregate delivering superior growth. In that sense, valuations today have turned favourable on account of this time correction. Even if we look at the last 3 years' earnings on a CAGR basis, midcap as a category has reported superior earnings growth as compared to broader markets. Going ahead as well, the outlook on midcap companies’ earnings growth continues to remain healthier. In that sense, the performance of the midcap index is largely a reflection of underlying earnings growth. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)
Ukrainian drone strikes caused fires at more Russian oil facilities overnight into Saturday, local Russian officials said, in what appeared to be the latest attack on Moscow's vital oil industry.Read more: Ukraine-bound Russian drone crashes into Romanian buildingAuthorities in Russia's Rostov region said falling drone debris sparked a fire that damaged an oil depot and tanker in the port of Taganrog, while officials in the neighboring Krasnodar region reported a fire breaking out at an oil depot in Armavir for the same reason. "Another facility of Russia's oil industry has been reached - Armavir," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X Saturday of the attack in the Krasnodar region, noting that Armavir is "500 kilometers from our state border." "We are rightfully bringing the war back to where it came from," he wrote. Our new long-range sanctions – and this is 500 kilometers from our state border. We are rightfully bringing the war back to where it came from. Russia could have ended its aggression long ago, but instead chose to prolong and continue it. So another facility of Russia’s oil… pic.twitter.com/YrrTsLDMqP — Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 30, 2026 Ukraine has expanded its mid- and long-range strike capabilities, deploying drone and missile technology that it has developed domestically to battle Russia's 4-year-old invasion. Attacks on Russian oil assets that play a key part in funding the invasion have become almost daily occurrences.Read more: Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in warFor its part, Russia has used its long-range ballistic missiles to damage Ukraine's power grid and hammer cities. The Ukrainian capital is bracing for further heavy bombardments after what the Russian Foreign Ministry said earlier this week would be upcoming "systemic strikes" on Kyiv. Zelenskyy said Thursday that he's being "very persistent" in pressing the United States to provide his country with more Patriot air defense missiles that can counter devastating Russian ballistic missile attacks. The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure came a day after a Russian drone that was part of an attack on Ukraine went astray and struck an apartment building in eastern Romania, injuring two people in the NATO member country. The incursion added to concerns that the war could spread across the alliance's borders, and drew strong condemnation across Europe.
The Indian stock market witnessed a sharp selloff on Friday afternoon, with the Sensex and Nifty falling over 1% as passive fund flows linked to the MSCI index reshuffle weighed on sentiment.Sensex dropped over 1,092 points to 74,776 while Nifty 50 crashed nearly 359 points to 23,547. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, jumped around 8% to 16.18. The sharp losses wiped off nearly Rs 6 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of all companies listed on BSE, pulling it down to Rs 465 lakh crore.Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:Nifty rollover for May expiry came in below both the three-month and six-month averages. Does this suggest traders are turning cautious near higher levels, or is it simply profit-booking after the recent recovery?In the month of May, the benchmark index Nifty traded within a narrow range of 1219 points, marking its smallest monthly range since December 2025. The rollover in the May series also came below the prior month and 3-month average. Notably, a majority of the trading sessions during the month witnessed either an upside or downside gap at the opening, followed by range-bound price action throughout the day. As a result, opportunities for intraday and short-term traders remained limited despite the frequent gap openings. But what made this phase even more unusual was the message hidden within the broader monthly price structure.On the monthly chart, Nifty has formed a bearish candle with shadows on either side, reflecting indecisiveness among market participants amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Zooming into the final week of May, the index continued to trade within a narrow range for most of the week before witnessing a sharp decline during the final hour of Friday's trading session, which tilted the balance in favour of the bears. While the market remained range-bound for most of the week, the late sell-off has raised an important question—was this merely profit booking or the beginning of a larger directional move?From a technical standpoint, Nifty continues to trade below all its key moving averages. More importantly, these moving averages have flattened out, indicating the absence of a strong trend. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone as per the RSI Range Shift framework, while the daily Stochastic oscillator is also moving within a narrow band. Adding to this, the trend strength indicator, Daily ADX, is placed at near 15 level and continues to decline, suggesting a lack of directional momentum in the index. While these indicators point towards a lack of trend, Friday's late sell-off has injected fresh uncertainty into the market setup.Talking about crucial levels, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,750-23,800 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle for the index. On the downside, the zone of 23,300-23,250 remains a crucial support area. A breach below 23,250 could intensify selling pressure and open the doors for a decline towards the psychologically important 23,000 mark. With the index approaching key support levels, the market's next move could set the tone for the coming weeks.Bank Nifty rollover saw a sharper decline and futures data indicates short build-up despite price weakness. Are banking stocks likely to remain drags on the market in the June series?In the month of May, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty traded within a narrow range of 3,550 points, marking its tightest monthly range since January 2026. On the monthly timeframe, it has formed a High Wave candle, reflecting market indecisiveness.During the past week, the index witnessed a strong upmove in the first half; however, it failed to sustain above the 55,500 level and subsequently underwent a sharp correction. This led to the formation of a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.At present, the index is trading below its key moving averages, which are trending downward, suggesting a weak bias. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone as per the RSI range shift rules, indicating lack of clear momentum.Going ahead, the 53,500–53,400 zone is expected to act as an important support for the index. A breach below 53,400 could trigger further downside, with the next key support placed around 52,700. On the upside, the 50-day EMA zone of 55,300–55,200 is likely to act as a crucial hurdle.FIIs reduced nearly 9,800 index shorts while also adding fresh longs. Do you see this as the beginning of a more constructive stance from foreign investors, or is positioning still defensive overall?There were clear signs of short covering in Index futures between 21st May and 27th May, with FII net Index futures shorts reducing sharply from 2,31,190 contracts to 1,63,012 contracts. This also led to the long-short ratio improving from 11.80% to 16.14%, indicating a relatively constructive shift in positioning. On Friday, massive short positions were built up leading to net index futures short contracts once again rising to 2,01,309 and the long short ratio dipping to 11.98%. Similar phases of short covering in the past were quickly followed by aggressive selling, causing bullish expectations to fade rapidly. This pattern has persisted for quite some time and is likely to continue until there is greater clarity on the US-Iran deal, a meaningful fall in the Dollar Index (DXY), stability in crude oil prices, and depreciation in the dollar against the rupee. Until these external factors stabilize, FII sentiment is likely to remain cautious rather than decisively bullish.What are key levels to watch out for in June series? What triggers could push Nifty decisively beyond in either direction?Talking about crucial levels, on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,750-23,800 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle for the index. On the downside, the zone of 23,300-23,250 remains a crucial support area. A breach below 23,250 could intensify selling pressure and open the doors for a decline towards the psychologically important 23,000 mark. With the index approaching key support levels, the market's next move could set the tone for the coming weeks.IT continues to trade near 52-week lows with elevated open interest and negative carry. Is the sector still witnessing aggressive short positions, and what would it take for sentiment to improve meaningfully?The Nifty IT Index has rebounded nearly 8% from its 14th May low of 27,078. However, over the last seven sessions, the Index has remained range-bound between 29,747 and 28,678, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. The RSI remains flat, while a subdued ADX reflects low volatility and absence of trend strength. Additionally, the MACD continues to trade below both the zero line and signal line, highlighting weak underlying momentum. On the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), the Index has shifted from the lagging to the improving quadrant, suggesting early signs of momentum recovery, though relative strength remains limited. The Index continues to trade below its 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, keeping the near-term trend weak. The 29,900–30,000 zone remains a crucial resistance area, and a decisive breakout above this level could trigger a stronger pullback rally in the IT pack.Given that the broader market structure remains range-bound with elevated volatility, should traders focus more on stock-specific opportunities rather than aggressive index directional bets in the June series?With the broader market remaining range-bound amid elevated volatility, traders are likely to find better opportunities in stock-specific setups rather than aggressive directional bets on the Index in the June series. The rising ratio line in the Midcap and Smallcap indices relative to Nifty highlights continued outperformance in the broader market space. Despite the strong bearish candle on 29th May, the overall market structure remains bullish, with no concrete signs of a major reversal yet. Currently, strength is visible in sectors such as private banks, PSU banks, financial services, and select midcap IT names. Meanwhile, the Index continues to react sharply to geopolitical developments, leading to frequent gap-ups and gap-downs that reduce trading clarity. In such an environment, strong price-action structures backed by robust technicals in trending sectors are likely to outperform across market conditions.What stocks are you looking out for?For the short term, Tamilnad Mercantile Bank, Nuvama Wealth Management, RR Kabel, Syrma SGS Technology, Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences (KIMS), and Minda Corporation are looking attractive based on their current market setup.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)