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FIIs, weak global cues among 5 factors that could keep D-St under pressure this week

The Indian stock market ended last week in the red, with analysts flagging multiple factors that could keep pressure on Sensex and Nifty when trading resumes on Monday.On Friday, the Sensex closed 117 points lower at 74,243, while the Nifty 50 declined 50 points to settle at 23,367. Among the top laggards on the Sensex were Trent, TCS, Tata Steel, NTPC, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Reliance Industries, with losses of 1-2%.Here are five key factors likely to drive the stock market in the week ahead.1) Weak global cuesWall Street ended sharply lower on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunging more than 4% to log its steepest single-day decline since April 2025, after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report fuelled concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.2%, dragged down by a more than 6% slide in Nvidia and an almost 8% drop in Broadcom. Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected guidance heightened concerns that AI-driven demand may not expand as rapidly as markets had anticipated. The Dow Jones fell 1.4%, while the S&P 500 dropped nearly 3%.European markets closed mixed, while Asian equities ended broadly lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1%, while South Korea’s Kospi plunged nearly 6%. China’s Shanghai Composite also ended about 1% lower.Also read: Why did Nasdaq plunge 4% to log worst day in over a year2) RBI policy impactReserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday announced that the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, as it assessed the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict. The RBI also increased the investment limit for Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) in equity instruments.Indian equity markets are likely to remain range-bound next week amid a mix of domestic and global triggers, according to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.“While the Reserve Bank of India’s measures to attract foreign capital and the government’s tax relief for foreign investors in government securities could support sentiment, we expect market movement to be driven largely by bottom-up stock picking and sector-specific action in the near term,” he said.Khemka noted that the central bank raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1% and lowered its FY27 GDP growth projection to 6.6%, reinforcing concerns over energy prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and weather-related uncertainties.“If inflationary pressures remain elevated and external risks persist, the possibility of a future monetary tightening cycle could increase, keeping investors cautious. Going forward, investors will closely track energy prices, developments in the West Asia conflict, monsoon progress, FII flows and the impact of RBI’s policy measures for further market direction,” he added.3) FII selling continuesForeign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the Indian market during the first week of June, offloading shares worth Rs 31,120 crore, according to Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President – Research at Bajaj Broking. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), meanwhile, continued to provide support as net buyers.“Investor sentiment remained subdued amid persistent geopolitical tensions, which kept crude oil prices elevated. Heightened global uncertainty, coupled with prevailing macroeconomic challenges, led to cautious market participation. Going forward, institutional flows are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations and movements in oil prices,” he said.4) Iran-US tensions US forces struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Saturday after intercepting drones launched by Iran toward the Strait of Hormuz, the US military said. Reuters, citing a US official, reported that the military believes the four Iranian drones were targeting regional maritime traffic. US Central Command said on X that it subsequently struck Iran’s surveillance sites in Goruk and Qeshm Island, both located along the Strait of Hormuz.Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for the strikes and fired on four tankers attempting to cross the strait without its permission. The developments renewed concerns over escalating tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.Also read: GIFT Nifty tumbles 1.5% as US stock market plunges. Will Dalal Street crash on Monday?5) Bond yields Rising inflation concerns pushed US Treasury yields higher. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to expectations around Federal Reserve policy, climbed to a 15-month high. Elevated interest rates typically make bonds more attractive relative to equities, weighing on stock market sentiment.Technical view on NiftyThe benchmark Nifty index ended lower for the second consecutive week, reflecting the cautious undertone prevailing in the market, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, Nifty 50 has been moving within a defined range as markets digest the RBI’s policy announcement. He noted that sentiment remains weak, with the index continuing to trade below key moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains subdued, indicating a lack of positive momentum.“In the near term, the index is likely to consolidate within the 23,300–23,500 range. A decisive breakout above 23,500 could trigger an upmove towards 25,700 and beyond, while a break below the 23,300 support level may result in a sharper correction,” he said.(With inputs from agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)