The Economic Times (India)
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The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
The recent Supreme Court (SC) judgment on online gaming and betting is expected to have wider implications across gambling, horse racing, and casinos, experts feel. The court clarified that the GST valuation framework is not confined to any one segment but applies across betting and gambling activities.The ruling makes it clear that the tax framework cannot be read narrowly. “Rule 31A… applies broadly to all betting, gambling and horse racing… Limiting its applicability only to horse racing would render parts of the rule otiose,” a PwC India note on the SC ruling said.Nitin Vijaivergia, partner at Pricewaterhouse & Co LLP, said the judgment upholds the imposition of the top GST slab on online gaming platforms, triggering significant retrospective tax exposure. The court’s reasoning also centres on how such transactions are structured. It has been clarified that in betting and gambling, valuation can be based on the full amount staked and not merely on a narrower measure.“Section 15(1)… permits valuation based on the entire stake,” and “merely because a different method of valuation… may also have been possible, it does not render the Rule unconstitutional,” the note added.For online gaming and casinos, the judgment clarifies when tax liability arises. The court held that the taxable event is triggered when players commit funds to participate in games with uncertain outcomes and no longer retain control over those funds.This also alters the treatment of player funds. The ruling notes that once amounts are committed for participation, “such arrangements cannot be considered deposits or entrustments,” and “the entire staked amount is treated as consideration for the supply.”In the case of casinos, the position is very clear. The court held that tax would be levied on each instance of staking money on an uncertain outcome, and not on the operator’s net earnings or gross gaming revenue.“The mention of staking money on ‘uncertain future outcomes’ may have broader implications for promotional and skill contests with deterministic scoring, and similar other formats. Key operational elements such as wallet architecture, re-deposits, and cashback will be crucial to determine tax demands, especially considering amendments to GST Rules 31 and 31B affecting valuation,” Vijaivergia said.Tax experts say that, broadly, the GST law will now apply where money or money’s worth is staked on uncertain outcomes, and such amounts are treated as consideration for the supply.
India needs to challenge the legal basis of a proposed US tariff action that seeks to impose an additional 12.5% duty on imports from the country under a Section 301 investigation, trade policy think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on June 3.The recommendation comes after the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) proposed fresh duties on imports from 54 economies following a probe into the enforcement of restrictions on goods linked to forced labour.GTRI said that the investigation stretches the intended scope of Section 301, a trade enforcement mechanism traditionally used to address barriers affecting market access for American businesses in foreign jurisdictions, PTI reported.The current action is focused instead on whether countries regulate imports originating from third nations where forced labour concerns may exist, the think tank observed.Also read | Iran war puts Malhotra & Co in razor-edge policy bindThe proposed tariff rate of 12.5% for India and several other economies is also higher than the tariff ceiling committed by the US under multilateral trade rules, the think tank said.According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, India should maintain that Washington is attempting to extend its domestic import-control framework beyond its borders through unilateral trade measures.He said such an approach falls outside the mandate of Section 301 and raises broader concerns regarding the use of trade policy to influence regulatory practices in other countries.The think tank further noted that concerns surrounding forced labour are often confined to specific products or sectors rather than entire economies. It argued that imposing country-wide tariffs may not be an appropriate response when targeted measures could address the underlying issue more effectively.Also read | CBDT tells tax officers to tighten scrutiny of unexplained income, assetsGTRI also viewed the proposed action in the context of ongoing trade negotiations between India and the United States, suggesting that the move could increase pressure on New Delhi as both countries work toward a bilateral trade agreement. It cautioned that India may face additional investigations under Section 301 in areas such as industrial overcapacity.The USTR initiated two separate Section 301 investigations in March this year covering 60 economies. One inquiry examined issues related to forced labour, while the second focused on concerns over excess manufacturing capacity.Following the conclusion of the forced labour investigation, the US has proposed additional duties on imports from 54 economies. Under the plan, imports from countries including Canada, Ecuador, Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan and the European Union would face a 10% tariff. A higher duty of 12.5% has been proposed for 48 economies, including India and China.The proposal has not yet been finalised and is currently open for public consultation. Stakeholders have until June 22 to request participation in hearings and submit testimony summaries, while written submissions can be filed until July 6. Public hearings are scheduled for July 7.A final determination is expected in the coming weeks and could be announced before the expiry of the temporary Section 122 tariff measures on July 24. If approved, the additional duties may come into force shortly thereafter.The investigation does not allege the use of forced labour in India's export production. Instead, it examines whether India has adequate restrictions on imports sourced from third countries where forced labour concerns may arise.Inputs from PTI
It’s easy to understand why so many graduates are booing commencement speakers who tell them how great AI is. They face a brutal job market, with unemployment for recent college graduates nearing recession levels, and AI is often cited as the reason they can’t find jobs or have to drastically reassess their career plans.I have a message for the class of 2026: AI is not ruining your job prospects, at least not yet. A better explanation for the tough job market may be the prevalence of WFH, not the rise of AI.131463654Two new studies, one from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and one from the London School of Economics, look at the recent rise in unemployment among young workers. The authors of the LSE study looked at 243 million new hires and 407 million online job postings from 2017 to 2025 in the US, UK, Australia and Canada. They observed a notable decline since 2022 in the hiring of new graduates. AI was presumed to be the reason, since the falloff tends to be in the sort of industries that are adopting AI.But these are also the same kinds of jobs — reliant on computers, knowledge-intensive, white-collar — that are most amenable to working from home. When they controlled for WFH, the authors found that the impact of AI on hiring was negligible.The study postulates that where WFH is more common, managing junior staff is more expensive. At the same time, young staffers who receive less training may be less productive than they would be otherwise, even as they mature and demand more pay. So the cost of WFH to young graduates is not just a harder job market — it also makes it harder for young employees to get good training, supervision and mentorship, a point also made by the New York Fed study.WFH has always had a superficial appeal. At first, it seems easier and often cheaper for both employers and employees; companies can pay less if they offer more flexibility, and many staffers have commitments that keep them at home. In the long term, however, both management and workers pay a price in terms of lost training and career development of younger employees.This could get even worse as AI is more widely adopted. New hires recently out of college who work on their own may figure out how to do specific tasks (perhaps with AI assistance), but they won’t learn much about how to manage office politics, charm clients or build networks. All these skills will be even more valuable in an AI job market, and none can be gained without coming into the office and observing senior colleagues.The new research doesn’t argue that AI will have no impact on hiring in the future, or that it is currently affecting hiring decisions. It’s also worth noting that many firms are still hiring — just not as much as before. There are a lot of factors that go into the health of the labor market, and if the economy worsens, the combination of AI and WFH could make it even harder for young graduates.What does seem clear is that AI is becoming a convenient villain for a lot of complaints people have about the economy. Tech executives aren’t helping by regularly declaring that AI can replace a lot of jobs. More likely, they are using AI as an excuse when they are letting people go for financial reasons. In the case of WFH, it may be easier to blame AI than to ask reluctant staff to come into the office.I’ve seen this reluctance firsthand: A few years ago I met middle-aged media executive who told me how much she loved working from home (or, often in her case, from a resort in Mexico). When I asked her about junior staffers missing out on mentoring and on-the-job training, she admitted she never would have succeeded if senior people weren’t in the office when she was coming up. But she didn’t seem too bothered by it, either.I’ve never been asked to give a commencement speech, but if for some reason I were, this would be my advice: Find a company where everyone likes going to work. Then try to get a job there — and if you do, go into the office every day.
LONGVIEW, Wash: From his living room window, Washington state Sen. Jeff Wilson can see the paper mill where a chemical tank ruptured this week in Longview, killing 11 people. He used to perform work there as the owner of an environmental cleanup company, and when he heard the sirens go past, he called his son, who works on the larger industrial site, to make sure he was safe."I personally have been inside that tank and near that tank many times," said Wilson, who has lived in Longview for 56 years. "I can assure you that we all know somebody there. ... The casualties are our friends and neighbors."The tank, which contained more than 500,000 gallons (1.9 million liters) of a mixture used to break down wood for making paper, collapsed Tuesday morning at the Nippon Dynawave Packaging Co. The rupture expelled a flood of caustic chemicals powerful enough to overturn pickup trucks and damage buildings at the site.Also Read: Six dead, several injured as part of under-construction bridge collapses in Uttar PradeshThe chemical disaster, one of the deadliest U.S. workplace accidents in recent decades, has struck at the heart of a community where generations of families have worked in local mills. Longview itself was founded by a timber baron to support the first mills established there, and over its roughly century-long history, residents' lives have become intertwined with the lumber and paper industries.Supporting victims and worrying about the futureAmid immediate concern about supporting grieving families, there is also worry about what the accident could mean for the future of the plant: It provides crucial jobs in an industry that once powered the forested region but has dwindled in recent decades.The plant's parent company, Tokyo-based Nippon Paper Group, said in a statement that it was assessing the accident's impact on its financial performance."Last night at the vigils, people who work in mills told me that they're proud of their jobs and they're proud of their work, and they don't want to lose it," U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, whose district includes Longview, told reporters Wednesday.Residents who spoke with The Associated Press similarly highlighted how important those jobs are for the city."If you're a waitress, a grocery store worker, a teacher, a paraeducator as I was for 30 years - every walk of life here knows somebody and is related to somebody from these mills," Cindy Stiebritz said in the antiques store where she volunteers.Generations in the millsStiebritz said her husband's parents met while working at the lumber company owned by the city's founder, Robert A. Long."Those mills, that is the backbone of this town," Stiebritz added. "You feel like you've lost part of your family."Longview's industrial zone lies along the Columbia River and hosts timber, paper and chemical businesses. Many residents in the city of nearly 40,000 can see the facilities or the steam from the boilers from their homes, or smell the sulfuric odor of the pulp and paper industry.The city's mill history is also imprinted on its downtown, where R. A. Long Square serves as a central landmark and gathering place, including for the vigil held after the disaster. A park around a man-made lake, another project of Long, features a burst of greenery where pedestrians enjoy its walking paths or the nearby tree-lined streets.Authorities said the cause of the tank's collapse is still under investigation. The facility, which dates to 1953 and employs about 1,000 people, makes material for tissues, printing paper, cups, plates, cartons and other goods.According to fundraisers organized for the victims' families, those who lost their lives include a grandfather who was always willing to help anyone; two brothers, one of whom was the sole provider for his partner and three children; and a husband who left behind two children and a wife with a baby on the way.Brianna Pesio, a server at the Mill City Grill downtown, said her father has worked at the plant for over 30 years. She described the fear Tuesday morning when her brother, who works at the lumber mill next door, told her he couldn't get a hold of him."I just didn't know if I lost my dad or not," said Pesio, whose husband also works in a paper mill. "I drove over to my dad's house and pounded on his door until he did wake up. He had just gotten off shift at 5 a.m."At the nearby Country Folks Deli, longtime server Gayle Leavitt said her in-laws also worked at the mill for decades, adding: "That's how this town has survived."'This is not the virtual world'Officials representing the area echoed the pride residents take in the mills and the economic importance of their good-paying jobs in a region where other areas have been hit hard by the decline of the timber industry."This is a place where real people make real things. This is not the virtual world," state Rep. Jim Walsh said at a news conference at the plant on Tuesday. "Real things and real industry always carries risks. But it's our job to make sure that risk like this is well managed and, to the extent it can be, controlled."Stiebritz, the antiques shop volunteer, said she hopes authorities find out the cause "so it never happens again.""If anything comes out of it, I hope lives can be saved," she said, tearing up as she thought of the children who have lost their parents."This town is family. It's one big family," she added. "But we'll make it though. We're strong. We've got a lot of love."
With Indian markets trading near elevated long-term averages, relying on a single, static asset class carries higher risk. According to Ihab Dalwai, Senior Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential AMC, high return dispersion means the real opportunity over the next three years lies in a flexible asset allocation framework that actively shifts capital between equities, debt, and commodities to deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes.Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager:How different is Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy from your existing Balanced Advantage Fund or Multi-Asset Fund, which you already co-manage?Unlike the traditional mutual fund offerings such as Balanced Advantage Funds (BAF) or Multi-Asset Funds, the Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy is structurally different as it operates within the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) framework, which provides decent higher portfolio flexibility.While BAFs and Multi-Asset Funds primarily manage net exposure through hedging and dynamic allocation, the SIF structure allows us to deploy a wider range of derivative-based strategies. This enables the portfolio to potentially generate returns not only from directional market participation but also from relative opportunities across asset classes and market conditions.Another key difference is the breadth of the opportunity set. The strategy dynamically allocates across equities, debt, commodities, InvITs and derivatives, with the flexibility to actively recalibrate exposures depending on valuations, macros and risk-adjusted opportunities. The objective is to create a more adaptive portfolio that seeks smoother outcomes across cycles while maintaining a disciplined buy low, sell high philosophy.At a time when Indian markets are trading near elevated long-term averages, how are you reading the current risk-reward equation across equities, debt and commodities? Which asset class currently looks most attractive from a three-year perspective?From a three-year perspective, we believe investors should avoid thinking in terms of a single winning asset class. The current environment is more suited for dynamic asset allocation because return dispersion across asset classes could remain high.Equity valuations have corrected in pockets where expectations are low and such opportunities have increased over the last 1-2 years. At the same time, fixed income has become relatively more attractive after the sharp repricing in global rates. Commodities, especially precious metals, performed well over the last year due to dollar devaluation, however that trend has currently paused because of rising rates in the US.In our view, the opportunity today lies in actively shifting between these asset classes rather than remaining concentrated in one asset class. Over the next three years, a flexible allocation approach may potentially deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes than static exposure.Your framework talks about “being invested the right way at the right time.” What are the biggest macro variables driving your current asset allocation stance?Our framework for equities combines a valuation plus earnings overlays. In case of debt and commodities, our allocation is based on various macro indicators. The key macro variables we monitor include growth trends, inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, real interest rates, currency movements and earnings cycles. At a broader level, we try to identify the prevailing growth-inflation regime because different asset classes tend to perform differently across economic phases. For example, equities and cyclical commodities generally perform better during growth-led expansions, while gold and duration assets tend to outperform during slowdown or uncertainty-driven phases.Commodities are emerging as a bigger allocation theme globally. Do you believe Indian investors remain structurally underallocated to commodities if we exclude household gold?Commodities has to be seen from a tactical allocation perspective rather than a structural allocation as they don’t pay either dividend or interest as other asset classes do. Hence, give the sharp run up in commodity prices, we don’t see an issue with relatively lesser allocation to commodities today.How do you see gold behaving if global growth weakens but inflation remains sticky?It is a tricky situation because the outlook on real rates is not clear. Historically gold as an asset class tends to do well when US real rates come off.What role do InvITs play in the portfolio construction process, especially in a rising interest rate environment?InvITs can play an important diversification role within the portfolio because they provide exposure to infrastructure-linked cash flow assets that are relatively distinct from traditional equity and debt instruments.In a rising rate environment, there can be near-term valuation pressure on yield-oriented assets, including InvITs. However, the impact also depends on the strength and growth visibility of the underlying assets and cash flows. Therefore, selective allocation becomes important rather than taking a broad-based view.Do you think that midcaps are now in a sweet spot and, barring a few pockets, unimpacted by the geopolitical conflict? In your Large and Midcap Fund, how overweight are you on midcaps?Midcaps continue to offer selective opportunities, particularly in businesses benefiting from domestic economic formalisation, manufacturing expansion, financialisation and government-led capex. However, after the strong rally seen over the last few years, valuations in certain parts of the midcap universe continue to remain elevated. Therefore, midcaps are not a homogeneous segment. Stock selection and valuation discipline become increasingly important in the current environment.Within the midcap universe, which sectors do you like from a 3-5 year perspective and why?The approach to midcaps has to be bottom up. Having said that, there are opportunities in certain platform companies and consumer facing businesses which have meaningfully underperformed over the last three years and have muted expectations from the market which makes them a good investment case today.
With Indian markets trading near elevated long-term averages, relying on a single, static asset class carries higher risk. According to Ihab Dalwai, Senior Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential AMC, high return dispersion means the real opportunity over the next three years lies in a flexible asset allocation framework that actively shifts capital between equities, debt, and commodities to deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes.Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager:How different is Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy from your existing Balanced Advantage Fund or Multi-Asset Fund, which you already co-manage?Unlike the traditional mutual fund offerings such as Balanced Advantage Funds (BAF) or Multi-Asset Funds, the Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy is structurally different as it operates within the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) framework, which provides decent higher portfolio flexibility.While BAFs and Multi-Asset Funds primarily manage net exposure through hedging and dynamic allocation, the SIF structure allows us to deploy a wider range of derivative-based strategies. This enables the portfolio to potentially generate returns not only from directional market participation but also from relative opportunities across asset classes and market conditions.Another key difference is the breadth of the opportunity set. The strategy dynamically allocates across equities, debt, commodities, InvITs and derivatives, with the flexibility to actively recalibrate exposures depending on valuations, macros and risk-adjusted opportunities. The objective is to create a more adaptive portfolio that seeks smoother outcomes across cycles while maintaining a disciplined buy low, sell high philosophy.At a time when Indian markets are trading near elevated long-term averages, how are you reading the current risk-reward equation across equities, debt and commodities? Which asset class currently looks most attractive from a three-year perspective?From a three-year perspective, we believe investors should avoid thinking in terms of a single winning asset class. The current environment is more suited for dynamic asset allocation because return dispersion across asset classes could remain high.Equity valuations have corrected in pockets where expectations are low and such opportunities have increased over the last 1-2 years. At the same time, fixed income has become relatively more attractive after the sharp repricing in global rates. Commodities, especially precious metals, performed well over the last year due to dollar devaluation, however that trend has currently paused because of rising rates in the US.In our view, the opportunity today lies in actively shifting between these asset classes rather than remaining concentrated in one asset class. Over the next three years, a flexible allocation approach may potentially deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes than static exposure.Your framework talks about “being invested the right way at the right time.” What are the biggest macro variables driving your current asset allocation stance?Our framework for equities combines a valuation plus earnings overlays. In case of debt and commodities, our allocation is based on various macro indicators. The key macro variables we monitor include growth trends, inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, real interest rates, currency movements and earnings cycles. At a broader level, we try to identify the prevailing growth-inflation regime because different asset classes tend to perform differently across economic phases. For example, equities and cyclical commodities generally perform better during growth-led expansions, while gold and duration assets tend to outperform during slowdown or uncertainty-driven phases.Commodities are emerging as a bigger allocation theme globally. Do you believe Indian investors remain structurally underallocated to commodities if we exclude household gold?Commodities has to be seen from a tactical allocation perspective rather than a structural allocation as they don’t pay either dividend or interest as other asset classes do. Hence, give the sharp run up in commodity prices, we don’t see an issue with relatively lesser allocation to commodities today.How do you see gold behaving if global growth weakens but inflation remains sticky?It is a tricky situation because the outlook on real rates is not clear. Historically gold as an asset class tends to do well when US real rates come off.What role do InvITs play in the portfolio construction process, especially in a rising interest rate environment?InvITs can play an important diversification role within the portfolio because they provide exposure to infrastructure-linked cash flow assets that are relatively distinct from traditional equity and debt instruments.In a rising rate environment, there can be near-term valuation pressure on yield-oriented assets, including InvITs. However, the impact also depends on the strength and growth visibility of the underlying assets and cash flows. Therefore, selective allocation becomes important rather than taking a broad-based view.Do you think that midcaps are now in a sweet spot and, barring a few pockets, unimpacted by the geopolitical conflict? In your Large and Midcap Fund, how overweight are you on midcaps?Midcaps continue to offer selective opportunities, particularly in businesses benefiting from domestic economic formalisation, manufacturing expansion, financialisation and government-led capex. However, after the strong rally seen over the last few years, valuations in certain parts of the midcap universe continue to remain elevated. Therefore, midcaps are not a homogeneous segment. Stock selection and valuation discipline become increasingly important in the current environment.Within the midcap universe, which sectors do you like from a 3-5 year perspective and why?The approach to midcaps has to be bottom up. Having said that, there are opportunities in certain platform companies and consumer facing businesses which have meaningfully underperformed over the last three years and have muted expectations from the market which makes them a good investment case today.
The Reserve Bank of India will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in June, according to most economists in a Reuters poll, although a majority now expect at least one increase by year-end due to risks from high oil prices and pressure on the rupee from weak capital inflows.India's still-benign inflation at 3.48% in April, below the RBI's 4% medium-term target for over a year, gives the central bank scant reason to act urgently.But, with crude oil prices hovering about 30% over levels seen before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the rupee down roughly 6% for the year and wholesale inflation accelerating sharply in April, a growing number of economists now expect policy action may eventually be needed to limit the pass-through to inflation.Nearly 80% of economists, 44 of 56, in the May 22-29 Reuters poll expected the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5.Also Read: Repo rate hike not on the cards, for now, says Ram Singh, external member of MPCAmong other respondents, 11 forecast a 25-basis-point hike and one expected a bigger 50-basis-point increase. In an April poll only one respondent predicted a June rate lift."With growth facing downside risks while inflation faces strong upside pressures, we expect the RBI to hold rates steady in June... as supply shocks perceived as temporary might not warrant an interest rate action immediately," said Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI Primary Dealer."Interest rates are not a good tool to counter large supply shocks. Also, I do not think the RBI MPC will increase rates to defend the rupee since it is beyond the remit of the MPC and precedents provide evidence it is not an effective antidote to depreciation."But not everyone agrees the RBI should keep rates steady.Also Read: RBI warns prolonged West Asia conflict could hit India’s economy"Without any hikes the financial market perception that domestic policies remain unaligned with tight global financial conditions will continue to grow, inflating risks of repeated or renewed speculative pressures on the exchange rate," said ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim.A shift to a "hawkish" policy stance would be prudent, he added.The central bank has already spent billions of dollars to slow the rupee's decline as a global risk-off environment accelerates foreign outflows from India.Meanwhile, other Asian central banks have already begun tightening policy to shore up their currencies. Bank Indonesia delivered a surprise 50-basis-point rate hike last week, and the Philippines' central bank raised rates 25 basis points in April.India, Indonesia and the Philippines are especially exposed as higher oil import costs coincide with capital outflows driven by investors seeking safer assets.Still, when asked if the RBI should consider using monetary policy alongside FX intervention to cushion the rupee's fall, a majority of economists, 14 of 18, said no.Poll medians showed the central bank would raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and again in the third quarter of 2027. Most economists expected at least one 25-basis-point rate increase by end-2026 compared with expectations in the April survey for no rise through 2027.Mizuho's head of macro research Vishnu Varathan said the RBI hiking rates was "a matter of when not if", and argued moving "sooner rather than later at the August meeting makes sense and mitigates unnecessary pain".
Shanghai: China's electronics giant Huawei is using a new principle for its chip designing framework that focuses more on cutting transmission time than shrinking transistors. The company plans to use innovative technologies like LogicFolding based on this principle to continuously compress signal propagation delay and improve transistor density.The current chip design framework rests on Moore's law which dates back decades when Intel co-founder Gordon Moore posited in 1965 that the number of transistors on a microchip will double every two years.The Tau Scaling principle could be a revolutionary step in the future of chip designing as it shifts focus from geometric scaling to time scaling. The principle that governs modern advanced chips is to shrink the size of transistors to fit onto a microchip. But this mechanism may have a handicap. It may not be easy to shrink them beyond a point. This is where time scaling becomes useful as it makes cutting signal transmission time the underlying principle of future chip designs.Also Read: PLI 2.0: India bets big on making more of the smartphone at homeThe innovative core technologies like LogicFolding, which Huawei will use for its Kirin chips scheduled to launch in Fall 2026, will work on the Tau Scaling principle in order to drive up performance, energy efficiency, and transistor density."With the t Scaling Law, we look forward to working closely with scientists, engineers, and industry partners around the world to drive the sustainable development of the semiconductor and electronics industries," Huawei's semiconductor chief He Tingbo noted.Huawei's new chip design breakthrough will help the chip maker to sidestep the US sanctions that restrict access to advanced lithography machines from ASML.Also Read: Indian semicon firm Netrasemi plans mass production of its first chip this yearBy 2031, Huawei is aiming for high-end chips based on the t Scaling Law that are expected to feature a transistor density that is equivalent to 14 A (1.4 nm) processes."This is a breakthrough for Huawei, but it's not a threat for TSMC," Reuters quoted Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who was in Taipei on Thursday."TSMC has been using die stacking and 3D packaging for how long now? Almost 10 years. And so TSMC's technology is very advanced," he added.A Reuters report mentioned Bernstein analysts cautioning in a note that while stacking multiple chip layers boosts transistor density, there's risk of increasing power density and overheating chips.