The Economic Times (India)
중도 성향
경제
The Economic Times · "GDP" · 총 14건
필터 보기현재 지수
50.0
0 = 부정 우세
50 = 중립
100 = 긍정 우세
최근 7일 기준 769건을 분석한 결과, 뉴스 심리지수는 50.0(균형)입니다. 긍정 0건(0.0%)·중립 769건(100.0%)·부정 0건(0.0%)이며, 중립 비중이 뚜렷하게 높습니다. 성향 지수는 종합 0.0(중도 균형)입니다.
The rupee appreciated 50 paise to 95.24 against the US dollar on Friday after the RBI liberalised norms for FPI investment in government securities. Forex traders said the announcements in the RBI policy boosted investor sentiments after the apex bank asserted that the country's forex reserves provide sufficient buffer against external shocks. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.72, then touched 95.24 in intraday trade, registering a rise of 50 paise from its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee rose 2 paise to settle at 95.74 against the US dollar. The Reserve Bank on Friday expectedly kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row as it weighed the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions caused by the West Asia crisis. Announcing the second bi-monthly monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has unanimously decided to retain short-term lending rate or repo rate at 5.25 per cent with a neutral stance. Moreover, the RBI raised limit for investments by Non-Resident Indians, Overseas Citizens of India in equity instruments. Malhotra also said that the central bank's policy on exchange rate remains unchanged and it does not target any specific rate/band for the rupee. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.40, higher by 0.01 per cent. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading up 0.36 per cent at USD 95.37 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex fell 142.06 points or 0.19 per cent to 74,217.95, while the Nifty was down 38.75 points or 0.17 per cent at 23,377.80. Foreign institutional investors offloaded equities worth Rs 4,447.06 crore on a net basis on Thursday, according to exchange data. Meanwhile, RBI has lowered GDP growth projection to 6.6 per cent from 6.9 per cent earlier for the current fiscal and raised CPI inflation projection to 5.1 per cent for FY27, higher from earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. PTI
Indian stock market traded in the green on Friday, with Sensex and Nifty extending gains for the second consecutive session as investors await the outcome of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) meeting today.Sensex gained 270 points at 74,629.94, while Nifty 50 rose over 62 points at 23,478.95. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, fell over 2% to 15.89.Infosys, UltraTech Cement, TCS, Tech Mahindra, M&M and Maruti Suzuki shares gained over 1% each to lead gains on Sensex. Tata Steel shares meanwhile fell over 1% to lead losses on the benchmark index.Broader markets also traded in the green, with Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices gaining over 0.3% each. All sectoral indices opened in the green, with Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty IT and Nifty Media rising nearly 1% each. Around 1,824 stocks advanced on NSE, while 523 declined and 101 remained unchanged.What’s moving the stock market upward today?"There are some mild positive indications for the market today. There are signs of weakness in the AI trade in the US, South Korea and Taiwan and rotation away from tech stocks, but it is too early to say whether this will sustain,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.The focus of the market today will be on the monetary policy and the message from the RBI Governor, the analyst said. “The MPC is likely to hold rates with a guidance of a rate hike later in the year to combat inflation which is expected to rise in H2 FY27. RBI is likely to revise the GDP growth for FY 27 downward and CPI inflation upward in the context of the energy shock and its implications,” he added.According to Vijayakumar, the most likely policy action is a ‘hawkish hold’, that is, the RBI would hold the rates without any change but would send a hawkish message that inflation is set to rise and, therefore, expect rate hike later this year. If the RBI decides to act now with a 25 bps rate hike, that will move the banking stocks sharply upwards since they would benefit from rate hikes, he further said. However, a rate hike would be negative for interest elastic segments like automobiles and real estate, the analyst added.Rupee risesRupee meanwhile gained 8 paise to 95.66 against US dollar in early trade. “With India's import bill under pressure from elevated commodity prices and continued FII outflows, participants will closely monitor the Governor’s commentary for cues on inflation, currency stability, and future policy direction,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst of Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities.The analyst expects the near-term range for rupee to be 95.25–96.25.FII selling continuesForeign investors continued to remain bearish on Indian markets. FIIs net sold Indian shares worth Rs 4,447 crore on Thursday, according to data on NSE.Notably, FIIs have remained net sellers of Indian equities for five consecutive sessions. (With inputs from agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."
Indian stock market traded in deep red on Tuesday, with Sensex and Nifty falling more than 0.5% each as renewed tensions around the Iran-US war, along with persistent FII selling spooked investors.Sensex declined over 415 points to 73,852, while Nifty 50 fell 142 points to 23,240, as seen at 9.17 am. This came even as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, tumbled 2.5% to 16.13.Bajaj Finance shares were the top losers on the index, falling nearly 3%. Eternal, Bharat Electronics (IBEL), Bajaj Finserv, Trent, NTPC, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and L&T followed, dropping 1-2%. Bucking the trend, IT stocks including Infosys, TCS, TechM and HCL Tech gained 1-3%.Broader markets underperformed benchmarks, with Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices falling around 1% each. Sectorally, Nifty Auto, Nifty Realty, Nifty Consumer Durables and few other indices declined more than 1% each. Bucking the trend, Nifty IT gained nearly 2%. Around 887 stocks advanced on NSE, while 1,650 declined and 97 remained unchanged.The trend of sustained AI trade, new records for markets in US, South Korea and Taiwan, sustained FPI selling in India and India’s underperformance are continuing with no immediate signs of reversal, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “To add to India’s problems, the energy shock has led to downward revision of India’s GDP growth and upward revision of inflation this financial year. And now we have the additional threat of the IMD’s latest projection of monsoon rains at 90% of long term average, which will have negative implications for growth and inflation,” he added.A resolution of the West Asia conflict and the consequent dip in crude price will be a big positive, but expectations on that front have been belied and the issue continues to hang fire, the analyst explained. “In these tough times of huge uncertainty and challenges, the ideal strategy for investors is to stick to the basics. Do proper asset allocation based on one’s risk profile and financial goals and wait with patience,” he further said.Iran-US war uncertaintiesIran and US traded strikes, while Israel ordered troops to move further into Lebanon in its battle with the Tehran-backed Hezbollah militant group. The renewed tensions in the Middle East, after Washington hosted Israel-Lebanon peace talks on Friday, dimmed hopes that the US and Iran could soon announce an extension to their ceasefire, which continues to grow fragile.US President Donald Trump meanwhile took to Truth Social on Monday evening, saying that he persuaded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call off the strike on Beirut, following which the Israeli leader "turned his troops around". "I had a conversation with Bibi Netanyahu today (Monday), asking him not to go into a major raid of Beirut, Lebanon. He turned his Troops around. Thank you Bibi," he said, referring to the Israeli prime minister by his widely used nickname.Trump said on Friday he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend a ceasefire announced in early April. Israel would be key to any such deal, and Iran has said repeatedly that Hezbollah and Lebanon must be included. The US has proposed a "gradual de-escalation" plan, a US official said on Sunday.Oil prices riseBrent crude futures neared $95 per barrel mark while WTI Crude futures neared $92 per barrel as a result of the recent escalations. This comes after Brent and WTI Crude dropped 19% and 17% in May, recording their biggest monthly fall in absolute terms since March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic slashed energy demand.The rising military strikes in the geopolitically fragile Middle East raised worries over the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 33-kilometre waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman that handles over 20% of the world’s daily oil and gas shipments.FII selling continuesForeign investors remained net sellers of Indian equities, net selling shares worth nearly Rs 3,912 crore on Dalal Street on Monday. This came after a massive Rs 22,102 crore selloff in just one session on May 29. Notably, South Korea’s equity market has overtaken India’s as the world’s sixth largest, driven by a relentless surge in chip heavyweights powering the global artificial intelligence buildout.(With inputs from agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Equity markets witnessed broad-based selling pressure on Friday following the IMD's monsoon forecasts of 90% of the long-period average (LPA), raising concerns among investors. The prospect of deficient rainfall, coupled with the increasing likelihood of an El Niño weather pattern, has heightened fears of elevated food inflation in the coming months. However, the downside risk appears partially mitigated by the recent moderation in crude oil prices and bond yields. Additionally, global sentiment remains supported by expectations of a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran, which has contributed to a rally in international markets.Analysts say that in the near term, investor attention is expected to shift toward key domestic triggers, particularly the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision and GDP data release, which will provide further insights into the inflation trajectory and overall economic momentum.Here are two stocks to buy on Monday1) YES Bank - Buy | CMP: Rs 23.22 | Stop loss: Rs 22.5 | Target: Rs 25Yes Bank shows strong bullish momentum as the price breaks decisively above the key horizontal resistance level at Rs 22.02. This breakout is supported by a noticeable volume expansion, confirming genuine market participation. The price is trading cleanly above the short- and long-term EMAs, which are fanning out in a bullish alignment, while the RSI rises above 60, signalling accelerating upward strength toward the descending trendline.2) NBCC - BUY | CMP: Rs 100.3 | SL - Rs 95 | Target - Rs 110NBCC (India) Limited exhibits a strong bullish reversal as price breaks above multiple short-term EMAs and tests the long-term blue EMA near 101.30. This upward shift is backed by a notable volume surge, indicating a clear influx of buyers at these levels. Meanwhile, the RSI has crossed above the 60 threshold, signalling accelerating positive momentum and confirming a strong structural turnaround from the recent bottom(Virat Jagad is Sr Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times.)
Mumbai: A prolonged West Asia conflict represents a key downside risk to India's economic outlook according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as it projected a lower real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.9% for 2026-27 in its annual report compared with 7.6% estimated for the previous financial year.The central bank said the impact of the conflict is likely to remain contained in the near term but warned that an escalation could derail India's otherwise positive growth trajectory."Going forward, India's growth outlook remains positive, though the West Asia conflict and the attendant risks of elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and weather-related disruptions could pose headwinds to growth and inflation in the short run," the Reserve Bank said.Also Read: Iran war - PSBs asked to stay preparedPositive Macro OutlookIt listed healthy corporate and bank balance sheets, government's continued thrust on capital expenditure and the implementation of trade agreements with key partners as positives to help sustain investment and growth momentum."Nevertheless, in a highly uncertain global environment, continuous assessment of the evolving developments is warranted to frame the appropriate policy response on an ongoing basis," the report said.131398139The central bank said that although portfolio flows exhibited a net outflow in 2025-26, strong buffers in the form of ample foreign exchange reserves and modest external debt liabilities continue to impart strength to the external sector, contributing to overall macroeconomic and financial stability.Adequate food grain stocks, sufficient reservoir levels and stable agricultural prospects despite possible El Nino conditions and above-normal summer temperature will keep inflation aligned to the target in 2026-27, according to the RBI. However, upside risks may emanate from a surge in global fuel and commodity prices amid geopolitical tensions, potential spillovers to input and wage costs and volatility in exchange rates.Also Read: India-US trade pact may be weeks away - US Ambassador to India Sergio GorThe central bank projected consumer price inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6%, with risks tilted to the upside, significantly higher than its revised estimate of 3.7% for the previous fiscal.Pressure on BondsDomestic bond yields could face upward pressure if the global monetary easing cycle stalls or reverses in response to persistent oil price shocks amid fragile conditions in West Asia, it said.Geopolitical risk has re-emerged as the dominant drag on global growth in 2026, according to the RBI. "In IMF's baseline scenario, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2026 (as against the earlier projection of 3.3% in January), while global merchandise and services trade volume is expected to decelerate to 2.8% in 2026. Further intensification of the conflict, its prolongation or widening geographical spread, if any, remain the key downside risks to the global economic outlook," the report said."However, the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, along with the liquidity injection measures by the Reserve Bank, is expected to contain the upward pressure on yields. Equity market dynamics would be conditioned by evolving geopolitical developments, global financial market volatility and foreign portfolio investment flows; a deterioration in risk sentiment alongside strengthening of the US dollar could trigger capital outflows," said the RBI's annual report. "At the same time, ongoing efforts to expand local currency settlement framework are expected to further advance rupee based cross-border transactions."
Wall Street's main indexes hit record closing highs on Friday and posted weekly and monthly gains as Dell results drove tech shares higher, while investors awaited details on a potential U.S.-Iran deal. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he would make a final decision on the Iran deal on Friday. Tehran earlier said it was looking for action, not words, when it came to an agreement.Dell surged after raising its full-year profit and revenue forecasts on Thursday. The tech sector climbed, fueled by gains in chip stocks.Peers Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Super Micro Computer gained. Microsoft climbed.The software services index also advanced.Earlier in the session, all three indexes hit intraday record highs, cruising on renewed optimism around AI and strong earnings growth, despite concerns about the Iran war's impact on inflation and the global economy.According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 16.11 points, or 0.21%, to end at 7,579.74 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 53.74 points, or 0.20%, to 26,971.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 363.48 points, or 0.72%, to 51,032.45.EARNINGS-DRIVEN RALLY"There's definitely euphoric sentiment in the market around AI. The rally has really been driven by earnings," said Ohsung Kwon, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo.He suggested investors buy and hold AI stocks, then earn extra income by selling call options at prices much higher than the current stock price.Melissa Brown, head of investment decision research at SimCorp, said over the past few weeks volume has gone up, which suggests more people are coming into the market.The S&P 500 was on track for a ninth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak since December 2023.The S&P 500 communications services sector dropped, as Alphabet declined. Consumer staples shares were weak with heavyweights Costco and Walmart both down.The S&P automaker index dropped after reports the Trump administration wants North American-built vehicles to have 82% regional content to qualify for preferential treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.Shares of General Motors and U.S.-listed shares of Stellantis fell. U.S. economic data on Thursday showed inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, while GDP for the first quarter was revised lower to a 1.6% annual rise. The Fed's Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid warned the energy shock may not be temporary. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said a persistent rise in inflation might require tighter monetary policy.Money markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the rest of the year, with expectations of a 25-basis-point hike in December. Among other movers, Gap shares tumbled after the apparel retailer cut its annual sales forecast, while American Eagle Outfitters dropped after keeping its annual comparable sales forecast unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday said that India's financial sector remained resilient in 2025-26, supported by healthy bank and non-bank balance sheets, improved asset quality and strong capital buffers. The central bank affirmed confidence in India's banking sector, indicating that it remains healthy, with gross bad loans at multi-decadal lows and stress tests showing banks can withstand severe shocks without breaching capital norms."Stress test results reaffirmed the resilience of banks, indicating their ability to withstand losses under adverse scenarios while maintaining capital buffers well above the regulatory minimum," the central bank said in its Annual Report. RBI further highlighted that the financial sector remained resilient on the back of healthy bank and non-bank balance sheets, improved asset quality and capital buffers, enabling double-digit credit growth.Also read: India steers boat through a risky channel between war clouds and El NinoRBI noted that bank credit growth gained momentum across sectors and outpaced deposit growth during the year, leading to a rise in the credit-deposit ratio. The transmission of policy repo rate changes to banks’ deposit and lending rates also remained robust amid conducive liquidity conditions.Bank credit to the commercial sector grew 15.9% year-on-year in 2025-26, up from 10.9% a year ago, while credit from non-bank sources expanded 13.3%, underscoring the continued strength of financial intermediation in the economy, the report said.RBI noted that profitability of scheduled commercial banks remained robust alongside improvement in asset quality. The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio declined to a multi-decadal low, while the capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) remained comfortably above regulatory requirements.The report added that asset quality and capital adequacy of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) remained strong during the year. Urban co-operative banks also witnessed improved credit and deposit growth along with robust capital buffers and higher profitability.The central bank further said the share of external benchmark-based lending rate (EBLR)-linked loans increased during the year, aiding faster monetary policy transmission, while the proportion of marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR)-linked loans continued to decline.RBI on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)The RBI indicated that it expanded its experimentation with Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) during 2025-26 by launching multiple pilots linked to direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes of the Centre and state governments.In its Annual Report, the central bank said programmable CBDC was used to deliver food subsidies under the public distribution system (PDS) in Gujarat, Puducherry and Chandigarh. Beneficiaries were credited subsidies through CBDC wallets that could be redeemed only for eligible commodities at fair price shops and designated merchants.The RBI said the pilots leveraged the programmability feature of CBDCs, allowing targeted use of funds and improving efficiency in subsidy delivery.The central bank also advanced efforts in tokenisation of financial assets through the development of the Unified Markets Interface (UMI), a multi-layer platform aimed at improving settlement efficiency using wholesale CBDC.“A pilot on tokenisation of certificates of deposit (CDs) was initiated on UMI,” the report said.On cross-border payments, RBI said it signed a memorandum of understanding with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) for collaboration on digital assets and held bilateral discussions with MAS and the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) to operationalise a cross-border CBDC pilot.The RBI also joined multilateral initiatives led by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Hub, including Project Rialto and Phase 2 of Project Mandala, focused on improving cross-border payments using CBDCs.The report comes as central banks globally continue to explore digital currency infrastructure to improve payment efficiency, lower transaction costs and strengthen cross-border settlement systems.The research by the U.S.-based Atlantic Council think tank revealed that 146 countries & currency unions, representing over 98% of global GDP, are exploring a CBDC. There is a new high of 77 countries in the advanced phase of exploration, which includes development, pilot, or launch.
Shares of Ashok Leyland fell 2% to their day’s low of Rs 160.75 on the BSE on Friday despite reporting a consolidated net profit of nearly Rs 1,291 crore for the January-March quarter of the financial year 2026, marking a 14% year-on-year (YoY) rise from the Rs 1,130 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.The firm’s revenue from operations, meanwhile, grew more than 17% YoY to Rs 17,246 crore during the quarter under review, as against Rs 14,695 crore in the year-ago period. Total expenses increased over 18% YoY to Rs 15,493 crore, while total income rose over 17% YoY to Rs 17,417 crore during the fourth quarter of the financial year ended March 31, 2026. Ashok Leyland shares: Buy, sell or hold?Goldman Sachs maintained its “Neutral” rating on Ashok Leyland and marginally raised the target price to Rs 162 (1% upside) from Rs 161. It noted that recent diesel price hikes of up to 8% have temporarily delayed truck replacement demand, although management expects this deferred demand to return over time as pent-up demand. Goldman Sachs added that near-term demand is likely to be supported by mining, infrastructure tippers and tractor trailers, while the LCV and IMLCV segments may continue to lag industry growth. The company has also implemented 1-1.5% price hikes in April to offset commodity inflation, though management flagged the possibility of short-term margin pressure.Morgan Stanley maintained its “Equal-weight” rating on Ashok Leyland with a target price of Rs 180, a 12% upside. It said demand trends remain resilient, although commodity inflation and rising diesel prices remain key headwinds to monitor. Morgan Stanley noted that the company has increased prices by 1-1.5% to counter commodity inflation. It also highlighted that it remained cautious on margin pressures and elevated valuations despite the favourable long-term commercial vehicle industry outlook.Motilal Oswal maintained its “Neutral” rating on Ashok Leyland and marginally raised the target price to Rs 162 from Rs 161. According to the brokerage, near-term demand is expected to be driven by mining, infrastructure tippers and tractor trailers, while the LCV and IMLCV segments could underperform the broader industry. The company has taken price hikes of 1-1.5% in April to offset commodity inflation, while management has also acknowledged the risk of short-term margin pressure. Motilal Oswal raised its FY27-29 EPS estimates by up to 1%.Nomura maintained its “Neutral” rating on Ashok Leyland but cut the target price to Rs 169 from Rs 218, implying a potential upside of around 3%. The brokerage said recent macroeconomic challenges, including higher fuel prices, rising inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates, could weigh on India’s GDP growth, with medium and heavy commercial vehicles being particularly sensitive to an economic slowdown. Also read: Up to 531% returns: 23 small & midcap multibaggers you might have missed in 2026 It added that recent dealer surveys indicate signs of weakening enquiries, reinforcing its cautious stance on the commercial vehicle cycle. Nomura also expects exports to slow in FY27. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted record closing highs on Thursday after news reports said the U.S. and Iran had reached a draft agreement to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, while investors also digested key inflation data.The news was first reported by Axios, which said that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program would be held during the truce period, but that the plan still needed the approval of President Donald Trump."Traders are on a hair trigger with the back-and-forth on deal news, and have been leaning long to avoid getting trampled by a better-than-expected outcome. The harder part is that the inflationary forces may not abate as fast as markets want," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. Economic data showed U.S. inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices amid the Iran war. Meanwhile, U.S. GDP for the first quarter was revised lower to a 1.6% annualized increase, with momentum expected to slow this quarter.According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 43.50 points, or 0.58%, to end at 7,563.71 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 239.79 points, or 0.91%, to 26,917.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 24.11 points, or 0.04%, to 50,666.29. The S&P 500 healthcare index posted strong gains. Eli Lilly advanced after CVS Health said it would restore the drugmaker's weight-loss injection, Zepbound, to its coverage and add its newly approved obesity pill Foundayo.Tech shares also moved higher. Microsoft gained after news website the Information reported that the company would release a new coding model next week.Marvell Technology rose after UBS raised its target price to $230 from $195.The company's shares have more than doubled so far this year.Snowflake shares soared after the data analytics firm lifted its annual product revenue forecast and announced a five-year AI infrastructure deal worth $6 billion with Amazon Web Services.Peers Datadog and MongoDB also climbed.Renewed confidence in AI and earnings growth momentum have underscored the recent rally despite the Middle East tensions, which have increased inflationary expectations."Markets continue to look through these risks because the global economy and corporate earnings remain relatively resilient," said Jitania Kandhari, deputy CIO, solutions and multi-assets, at Morgan Stanley Investment Management."Geopolitical instability could ultimately accelerate spending in areas tied to AI, including cybersecurity, defense technology, energy infrastructure and supply-chain resiliency, reinforcing the long-term investment case."While the S&P 500 is trading at roughly 21 to 22 times forward earnings versus a trailing 10-year average of 19.7 times, investors are less concerned because earnings expectations are rising faster than stock prices, Kandhari said. Among other movers, Dollar Tree climbed after the discount retailer lifted its full-year profit forecast, while Best Buy also rose after the electronics vendor forecast second-quarter sales above estimates. Drone companies rose after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was in talks to fund drone firms. Shares of Unusual Machines surged.
Mumbai: The consolidated net profit of listed commercial banks crossed ₹4 lakh crore for the first time in FY26, with top three lenders - State Bank of India (SBI), HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank - making up more than half the sector's aggregate bottom-line.Overall, private banks accounted for a slightly higher share of the profits at ₹2.09 lakh crore, while state-run banks reported an aggregate net profit of ₹2.01 lakh crore. The consolidated net profit of the top three lenders - also designated as systemically important by the banking regulator - totalled ₹2.13 lakh crore. Overall, the banking industry's consolidated net profit rose 4.5% to ₹4.11 lakh crore, and standalone net profit increased 7.5% to ₹3.95 lakh crore. 131377238The net profit for banks may have been even higher but for the sharp, 45-basis-point rise in benchmark government bond yields in the fourth quarter and the unexpected imposition of the $100 mn cap on net open position just a day before year-end. The cap was introduced to curb the steep decline in the rupee against the dollar. Both factors, however, weighed on treasury incomes at banks.The top three banks accounted for 43% of deposits and 44% of advances, with system-wide deposits at ₹251 lakh crore and advances at ₹212 lakh crore by end March 2026.Advances of PSU banks rose 16%, while those of private banks grew 14%, while deposits rose 10% and 13%, respectively, in FY26 over previous year.Growth, however, may soften this year due to the impact of the West Asia crisis that began on February 28. "The economic fallout of the conflict may lead to lower GDP growth and higher inflation in FY2027," SBI Chairman S C Setty said in his address to shareholders in the bank's annual report. Loan Growth SlowingSBI expects credit to expand by 13%-15% in FY27 versus 17% previous year. At an analysts' meeting, Setty said, "Credit growth is a function of macroeconomic conditions. We do not want to grow faster than what the macro environment can support."Net profits of private and PSU banks were almost equal, despite PSU banks holding around 61% market share in total business (deposits and advances). PSU banks' net profit rose 11% to ₹1.98 lakh crore, while private banks' profit increased 4% to ₹1.96 lakh crore.