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Shares of Go Digit General Insurance surged 8.66% to Rs 329 during Friday's trading session, extending gains after a significant Rs 100-crore block deal in the previous session attracted prominent institutional investors.The block deal saw Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund and JPMorgan (Taiwan) Eastern Technology Fund collectively acquire 33.33 lakh shares at a weighted average price of Rs 300 per share.Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund purchased 21.66 lakh shares worth approximately Rs 65 crore, while JPMorgan (Taiwan) Eastern Technology Fund acquired 11.66 lakh shares valued at around Rs 35 crore.The seller in the transaction was Peak XV Partners Growth Investments III, which offloaded its entire 33.33 lakh-share stake for nearly Rs 100 crore.Stock PerformanceDespite Friday's sharp rally, Go Digit Insurance has remained under pressure over the past year, with the stock declining around 10% during the period. The company currently commands a market capitalisation of Rs 27,993 crore.The stock's 52-week high stands at Rs 381.40, while its 52-week low is Rs 295.50.On the valuation front, Go Digit Insurance trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.28 and a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 6.51, reflecting premium market expectations for the insurer's growth prospects.The company delivered a robust financial performance in the March 2026 quarter. Revenue rose 9% year-on-year to Rs 3,181 crore, while net profit surged 49.2% YoY to Rs 173 crore, highlighting improved profitability and operational efficiency.The shareholding pattern for the March 2026 quarter reflected mixed investor activity. Promoters marginally reduced their stake in the company from 73.03% to 73.01%, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) trimmed their holdings from 8.26% to 8.01%. In contrast, mutual funds increased their ownership from 8.02% to 8.28%, signaling continued confidence from domestic institutional investors despite the reduction in foreign investor participation.From a technical perspective, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) stands at 40.8. An RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold, while a reading above 70 signals overbought conditions.Go Digit Insurance is currently trading above 5 out of its 8 key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting improving near-term momentum. However, the stock remains below its 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating that long-term trend confirmation is still awaited.The sharp rally following the Rs 100-crore block deal and increased mutual fund participation has put Go Digit Insurance back on investors' radar. Market participants will closely watch whether the stock can sustain momentum and reclaim key long-term resistance levels in the coming sessions.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
Mumbai: It is India's fourth biggest company by revenue, but the managing director of precious metals trader Rajesh Exports (REL) apparently doesn't know how and from where it gets the biggest chunk of the revenue, show the findings of a regulatory investigation.In its investigation report, the Securities and Exchange Board of India observed allegedly unscrupulous activities by REL's promoters, such as accounting irregularities and siphoning off of company funds into personal accounts, and also pointed out lapses by its auditors. The regulator said the company and its auditors were non-cooperative."The acts of REL constitute a deliberate device, scheme and artifice to mislead and defraud investors dealing in the shares of REL by portraying an inflated and misleading picture of its operational scale, revenue and financial health," Sebi observed in its report.The company, eponymously named after its chairman Rajesh Mehta, is accused of committing an elaborate financial fraud that includes dressing-up of revenues of ₹15.15 lakh crore over the years, personal gold trades covered up as corporate sales and phoney gold mine investments of ₹1,035 crore, according to the interim report.REL denied the charges of misdeeds. In a press release Thursday, the company said the revenues stated in its financials were correct and that the confusion arose because of a mix-up between Ebitda and revenue numbers at Swiss refiner Valcambi SA, an indirect subsidiary.Sebi has not made any adverse observation with regard to earnings, the company said, claiming that the regulator has only observed suspicion with regard to revenues which was primarily because of confusion over the Valcambi numbers.Numbers don't add upIn fiscal 2025, REL reported consolidated revenue of ₹4.23 lakh crore against a profit after tax of just ₹95 crore, translating into a net margin of barely 0.02%. The year before, on ₹2.8 lakh crore revenue, profit was ₹336 crore.Experts who have studied the Sebi report and the company's annual reports say the numbers did not add up. The business appeared to be operating at margins that were not merely thin but structurally negligible, they said."It looks like a case of pass-through accounting. There is no value creation. It was 'flow of gold' being booked as revenue," said a leading auditor on the condition of anonymity.Sebi, which began the investigations in March 2024 following a shareholder complaint about suspected accounting malpractices, said it found that about 97-99% of REL's consolidated revenues were attributed to its overseas subsidiaries, principally Valcambi. But Valcambi's own accounts, audited by KPMG SA, recorded only processing fees that were about ₹3,027 crore across five years.Valcambi refined gold on behalf of clients and never took ownership of the precious metal or recognised the value of gold as revenue in its books. Yet, Global Gold Refineries AG (GGR), the parent of Valcambi that had no independent operating business, recorded gross revenues running into hundreds of crores by including the gross value of gold that actually belonged to others, according to the Sebi report.Rajesh Exports, which owns GGR through a Singapore subsidiary, used those unaudited figures in its financial statements, significantly bumping up the company's revenue, it said.In its press release, REL said: "The core observation in the order is with regard to the misreporting of the revenues. This has emerged primarily due to confusion because Sebi has considered the Ebitda of Valcambi instead of revenue hence it has stated that there is a difference of about 97% in the revenue.""There is no reason for any listed entity to inflate revenue and maintain the earnings, this will only reduce the margins of the company, which would be adverse to the company," it said.Senior management in the darkThe senior management of REL told regulators that most of them were in the dark about the company's overseas operations and only the promoter, Rajesh Mehta, dealt with those activities."Valcambi SA does not have any gold mine on its own," managing director Suresh Gowda was quoted in the Sebi order as saying. "It refines the raw gold purchased by it from various entities, whose names I do not recollect, as these things are exclusively handled by Rajesh Mehta, chairman of REL. I have never interacted nor involved with any subsidiary/step-down subsidiary of REL, as these were exclusively taken care of by Rajesh Mehta," he told the investigators, as per the order.According to the report, REL booked ₹11,487 crore in sales between 2021-22 and 2023-24 to Affluence Shares and Stocks, a broker that made up to 66% of the company's standalone revenue for that period. But Affluence, in formal depositions to the regulator, said it had not done any business with REL.Following the transaction trail, the investigators found out that the transactions were personal gold derivative trades executed by promoter Mehta using his own brokerage account and then recorded in the company's books as corporate sales, the order said.The investigators also found that Mehta used corporate funds. As per the Sebi observations, bank records show REL transferred ₹338.90 crore directly into Mehta's personal accounts between April 2020 and September 2025.Unlike in the case of Nirav Modi or Gitanjali Gems, who are accused of bank fraud, Rajesh Exports doesn't appear to have borrowed big from banks or through sale of bonds, according to regulatory filings.The company's market cap was just over ₹3,000 crore, as per Thursday's closing share price. LIC (10.8%) and Bridge India Fund (8.46%) are its major institutional shareholders."It is striking that, even at a peak market capitalisation of ₹25,000 crore, the company did not hold any analyst calls, a basic expectation for a listed company of that scale," said Shriram Subramanian, founder and managing director of InGovern Research Services, a corporate governance advisory firm.The regulator in 2024 hired BDO India Services to investigate. But the forensic audit faced problems at almost every stage of the investigation. It was denied access to ERP systems and was not provided a complete journal dump, preventing independent verification of transactions recorded in the books, according to the regulatory report.And the company declined to share subsidiary-level records with the investigator, citing Swiss data protection laws, limiting auditors largely to reviewing financial statements prepared by the management itself rather than underlying evidence, it said.What's also come under the scanner was the conduct of statutory auditors for the last few years: CA PV Ramana Reddy, the proprietor at PV Ramana Reddy & Co, and CA PL Venkatadri, partner at BSD & Co.The company's FY24 and FY25 annual reports, filed with the stock exchanges, carry an unqualified opinion from BSD & Co, which concluded that the financial statements presented a "true and fair view" in line with Indian Accounting Standards.The company's FY24 Directors' Report noted that the statutory and secretarial auditors had made no qualifications, reservations or adverse remarks.The Sebi report said for over five months, the auditors sat on the regulator's request for missing documents and statements.Emails sent to both audit firms did not elicit any response.REL closed 5% lower at ₹103.92 Thursday on the NSE. The shares are down from their peak of ₹1,028.40 on February 6, 2023.
Mumbai: Global investors continued to pare equity stake in the financial services sector in the second half of May, however the pace of selling came off.Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold shares worth ₹5,181 crore from the sector in the period, significantly lower than the outflow of ₹17,000 crore in first half of the month, according to the data from NSDL. Between January and March, global investors pulled out shares worth over ₹60,000 crore from the sector."Banking stocks offered foreign investors an easy exit from India by virtue of being highly liquid," said U R Bhat, co-founder & director, Alphaniti. "Despite the sell-off, the sector has fared well, barring a few specific exceptions. Now investors are reducing exposure in other sectors."Bank Nifty fell 1% over the past one month compared with a 2.9% drop in the benchmark Nifty 50."Global investors toned down the selling in the banking and financial services sector and bought selectively- mostly smaller banks instead of the large caps which is why the pace of outflows moderated," said Sonam Srivastava, founder and CEO, Wright Research. Overseas investors sold shares worth ₹14,621 crore across 13 sectors in the second half of May, after withdrawing ₹38,443 crore across 19 sectors in the first half of the month.131518952FPIs have continued the selling spree in the current calendar year, offloading equities worth ₹2.6 lakh crore up till June 03. This exceeds their outflow of ₹1.7 lakh crore in the whole of 2025. A sustained selling pressure has intensified this year due to AI disruption and inflationary pressure on account of elevated oil prices given the US-Iran war. In addition, the net outflow of ₹1.3 lakh crore in FY27 so far exceeds the net investment of ₹84,132 crore by FPIs since FY17. The cumulative net foreign investment in Indian equities dropped to the lowest level in 12 years to ₹7.1 lakh crore in FY27.In the second half of May, automobiles and oil and gas sectors reported worth over ₹2,000 crore. On May 29, The MSCI rebalancing led to outflows worth ₹8,000-8,500 crore which also factored in the outflows for this fortnight. "Changes in the MSCI Index shifts the composition of not just index funds that mimic the index but also weighs on decisions of other funds,who largely use MSCI indices as benchmarks" said Bhat.Among sectors that reported net inflows in the second half of May, metals attracted nearly 60% of the inflows -the highest foreign inflows worth ₹4,999 crore for the period. The sector witnessed inflows worth over ₹6,500 crore in May.
For most investors, the focus is often on finding the right stock, entering at the right valuation, and identifying the next multibagger. Far fewer spend time understanding what may be the more difficult aspect of investing—knowing when to sell.Speaking at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit on Thursday on "The Art of the Exit," Rajiv Thakkar, CIO and Director at PPFAS Asset Management said that successful investing is not just about buying well but also about staying invested long enough for compounding to work. In fact, before discussing reasons to sell, he spent considerable time explaining why investors should avoid selling in the first place.According to Thakkar, one of the biggest mistakes investors make is selling because a stock has not moved for a few months.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: Future alpha may emerge from neglected markets and asset classes, says Kalpen Parekh Investors often spend significant effort researching a company, understanding management quality, assessing industry prospects and evaluating valuations. Yet after purchasing the stock, many lose patience if prices remain stagnant for six months or a year.https://youtube.com/shorts/RiLj-X02NNE?feature=share"Investments are meant for wealth creation, not entertainment," he said, cautioning against treating investing like a source of excitement or constant action.Another common trigger for unnecessary selling is reacting to news flow. Markets are constantly bombarded with information—wars, elections, crude oil fluctuations, interest-rate decisions, capital flows and economic data. Investors who react to every headline often end up making poor decisions.To illustrate this, Thakkar recounted the story of an investor who received advance information about the severity of the Covid outbreak in early 2020. Acting on that information, the investor sold his technology stocks before the market crash. While the prediction turned out to be accurate, fear prevented him from re-entering the market, and he ultimately missed one of the strongest rallies in technology stocks.The lesson, according to Thakkar, is that even correct information does not necessarily translate into successful investment outcomes. Thakkar was particularly critical of the concept of "profit booking."Investors often feel compelled to sell simply because a stock has appreciated significantly. However, he argued that wealth is created by allowing successful investments to compound rather than by repeatedly locking in gains.Frequent buying and selling may benefit brokers, exchanges and tax authorities, but it often works against long-term investors. Hyperactivity in portfolios can destroy wealth by interrupting compounding and increasing costs.Similarly, investors should avoid selling because another stock appears more attractive. This "buyer's remorse" mindset frequently causes investors to abandon good businesses prematurely in pursuit of seemingly better opportunities."If you manage to find a genuinely good business with strong management, a large opportunity set and reasonable valuations, the best course of action is often to simply stay invested," he said.Thakkar emphasised that investors in taxable jurisdictions such as India should maintain low portfolio turnover whenever possible. Unlike institutional structures such as mutual funds or investors in tax-free jurisdictions, individual investors face taxes and transaction costs every time they trade. Excessive churn can significantly reduce long-term returns.For wealthy investors, family offices and HNIs, the ability to remain invested and minimise unnecessary transactions often becomes a major source of compounding advantage.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: India could unlock a $5 trillion export opportunity through FTAs, says Saurabh Mukherjea While most reasons for selling are flawed, Thakkar identified several situations where exiting an investment becomes necessary. The most obvious reason is the need for capital. If an investor requires money for a business opportunity, acquisition or personal objective, selling investments may be entirely justified. More importantly, investors must be willing to acknowledge mistakes.If an investment thesis turns out to be wrong because of flawed analysis, poor due diligence or changing circumstances, the best course is often to exit quickly rather than averaging down endlessly.According to Thakkar, investors who recognise mistakes early frequently outperform those who identify good opportunities but refuse to sell losing positions. Capital trapped in poor investments cannot be deployed into better opportunities. Fraud, naturally, represents an immediate reason to exit.One of the more challenging selling decisions arises when industries face structural disruption. Questions such as whether newspapers can survive the internet, whether thermal power can coexist with renewable energy or whether traditional automobile manufacturers can adapt to electric vehicles rarely have straightforward answers.Thakkar suggested that investors should not react impulsively but should continuously evaluate incoming evidence. Investment decisions should be driven by facts rather than sentiment. If the underlying business continues to deteriorate because of technological or structural change, investors must eventually acknowledge reality and exit.At the same time, distinguishing genuine disruption from temporary noise remains critical. Exceptional businesses are not immune to becoming overvalued. Thakkar pointed to situations where valuations become so excessive that future growth is already fully reflected in stock prices. In such cases, taking profits, paying taxes and reallocating capital may be sensible.He also noted that investors may sell a reasonably valued investment if a significantly superior opportunity emerges elsewhere.During the question-and-answer session, investors raised concerns about stocks that stop performing despite sound fundamentals. Examples such as Maruti Suzuki, Bharti Airtel and even silver investments highlighted a common dilemma: should investors exit after years of gains and subsequent consolidation?Also Read | MF Tracker: Can ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund sustain its strong track record in a volatile market? Thakkar's response was that even excellent businesses can spend years moving sideways. Companies such as Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and Bharat Electronics have all gone through extended periods of stagnant share-price performance despite remaining fundamentally strong businesses.Investors should therefore distinguish between stock-price performance and business performance. As long as the underlying business continues to execute well, temporary market stagnation alone is not a sufficient reason to sell.For investors worried about selling too early, Thakkar recommended a phased approach. Instead of attempting to identify exact market tops, investors can gradually reduce exposure over time. For instance, if a stock appears significantly overvalued, an investor might sell a portion every month rather than exiting entirely in one transaction.This systematic approach helps manage the emotional difficulty of selling while reducing the risk of poor timing. Another important consideration is position sizing. Addressing a question about highly successful investments such as Nvidia, Thakkar noted that even outstanding businesses can become disproportionately large components of a portfolio.When a single stock grows from a small allocation into a dominant position, investors face a different risk—wealth preservation rather than wealth creation. His solution is gradual trimming. Investors can periodically reduce oversized positions to maintain comfortable portfolio weightings while still participating in future upside.This approach may not maximise returns, but it significantly reduces the risk of catastrophic losses and helps investors sleep better during periods of volatility.Thakkar concluded by stressing the importance of diversification and long-term investing. Most individuals create wealth through a single business, profession or sector. Their financial portfolios should therefore diversify away from that concentration rather than amplify it.Whether through mutual funds, retirement vehicles such as NPS, EPF and PPF, or diversified portfolios, investors should focus on owning inflation-protected assets for long periods. "The lower the churn in a portfolio, the greater the opportunity for compounding," he said.Ultimately, successful investing is not about perfectly timing every entry and exit. It is about avoiding unnecessary activity, admitting mistakes quickly, remaining patient with good businesses and ensuring that no single investment becomes large enough to threaten long-term financial stability.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
HDFC Mutual Fund has restricted lumpsum investments in its gold ETF and fund of fund - HDFC Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF Fund of Fund with effect from June 8 and June 5 respectively.The fund house informed its unitholders that it has decided to temporarily restrict lumpsum subscriptions in HDFC Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF Fund of Fund until further notice.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: India could unlock a $5 trillion export opportunity through FTAs, says Saurabh Mukherjea In HDFC Gold ETF, subscription transactions by large investors directly with HDFC Mutual Fund (i.e. investing minimum Rs 25 crore) shall not be accepted from the effective date. In HDFC Gold ETF FoF, lumpsum purchases /switch-ins into the FOF shall be processed only upto a limit of Rs 10 lakh per PAN per calendar month (at first holder level). This limit shall apply in respect of transactions received after cut-off time (3:00 PM) on June 5.It further said that all other terms and conditions of the schemes will remain unchanged. This addendum shall form an integral part of the SID / KIM of the schemes as amended from time to time.Launched on December 28, 2022, HDFC Gold ETF had an AUM of Rs 69.72 crore as of April 30, 2026. In the last one year, the fund lost 4.01% and since its inception it has given a CAGR of 8.27%.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: Future alpha may emerge from neglected markets and asset classes, says Kalpen Parekh HDFC Gold ETF FoF was launched on November 1, 2011 and had an AUM of Rs 11,464 crore as of April 30. In the last one year, it gave a return of 57.05% and since its inception it has given a return of 11%.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
As geopolitical headwinds make it tougher for equity investors to make money, Dalal Street’s top voice Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told a gathering of HNI investors at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit on Thursday that there are four specific investment structures which deserve a place in most portfolios right now.Shah’s first recommendation was the Special Investment Fund, or SIF, a structure that marks a meaningful shift in what is available to Indian investors. Shah noted that the mutual fund industry has, until now, been a long-only business but the SIF changes that. These are long-short, absolute return-oriented funds, designed to generate returns regardless of market direction rather than simply riding the equity tide.The second vehicle Shah flagged is performing credit AIFs. His reasoning was grounded in a simple supply-demand observation that for corporate settlements today, capital is not available from banks, mutual funds, or insurance companies.As institutional lenders have stepped back, borrowers are plenty and lenders very few. Amid this imbalance, Shah said the need is real and returns are attractive. Performing credit AIFs, which lend into this gap, are positioned to benefit directly from the scarcity of competing capital.https://youtube.com/shorts/Xa4AcXFg8hA?feature=shareThe third idea was REITs, and here Shah introduced a timing element. Over the last three years, REITs have delivered index-level returns of around 13.5%. But with interest rates rising, he suggested that the next six to nine months may present an opportunity to enter at better prices. Rising rates typically compress REIT valuations in the near term, and Shah framed any such correction as a potential entry point rather than a risk to avoid. Beyond the return potential, he positioned REITs as a portfolio diversification tool as the asset class behaves differently from equities and fixed income, and that is still underrepresented in most Indian investor portfolios.The fourth recommendation addressed global diversification but came with an important caveat. Mutual fund industry limits for overseas investment are currently full, which means the conventional route for Indian investors to access global markets through domestic mutual funds is closed. Shah pointed to Gift City as the workaround. Structures domiciled there allow investment under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, and in his view, these Gift City-based LRS products are the practical path for investors who want global exposure while the mutual fund window remains shut.Across all four — the SIF, performing credit AIFs, REITs, and Gift City products — Shah's underlying argument was the same: in a volatile period, the portfolio needs instruments that can generate positive returns through means other than a rising equity market.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Traders in Reliance Industries Ltd.’s treasury department are strategizing over where to park the company’s cash in case the Reserve Bank of India starts raising interest rates in the coming months.One proposal involves moving Reliance’s cash holdings from liquid mutual funds into short-dated money market instruments, people aware of the conglomerate’s thinking said. The switch may pay off because the yield spread between money-market papers and the benchmark rate has widened beyond its five-year average and is likely to narrow in the coming months, resulting in capital gains, the people said, asking not to be named as the information is private. Markets are currently expecting about 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, they said.Traders also mulled reducing allocation to longer-dated bonds, which tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate changes, the people said.The strategy discussion cited market expectations and the conglomerate didn’t take an explicit view on interest rates. Treasury departments typically consider a range of market scenarios when evaluating trading strategies.“We categorically deny the information you have provided in your email regarding our opinion on interest rates and the behaviour of the rupee,” a Reliance spokesperson said by email.131502003India's Overnight Swaps Reflect RBI Rate HikesThe view carries weight because Reliance runs one of the largest corporate treasuries in India. The discussion also come ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s rate decision on Friday, where the central bank is expected to announce measures to support the rupee.While most economists — 29 out of 35 — surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the authority to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, they see the RBI adopting a hawkish stance to prepare markets for potential rate hikes later this year amid inflation pressures triggered by an oil price shock.India’s sovereign bond yields have remained broadly stable this quarter even as the rupee has slid to record lows. The currency has recovered in recent days, helped by RBI intervention and optimism that a US and Iran agreement may lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for the country’s energy imports.The rupee is down 6% this year and recently approached a record low of 97 per dollar. It has been hovering around 95-96 levels in recent days.Reliance’s traders expect the rupee to strengthen if a Middle East peace deal is reached and if the RBI takes measures to attract capital inflows, one of the people said. They have proposed that the owner of world’s largest oil-refining complex partly hedge its long-term forward contract positions as well as coupon payments dues in fiscal year starting March 2028, the person said.
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
The recent Supreme Court (SC) judgment on online gaming and betting is expected to have wider implications across gambling, horse racing, and casinos, experts feel. The court clarified that the GST valuation framework is not confined to any one segment but applies across betting and gambling activities.The ruling makes it clear that the tax framework cannot be read narrowly. “Rule 31A… applies broadly to all betting, gambling and horse racing… Limiting its applicability only to horse racing would render parts of the rule otiose,” a PwC India note on the SC ruling said.Nitin Vijaivergia, partner at Pricewaterhouse & Co LLP, said the judgment upholds the imposition of the top GST slab on online gaming platforms, triggering significant retrospective tax exposure. The court’s reasoning also centres on how such transactions are structured. It has been clarified that in betting and gambling, valuation can be based on the full amount staked and not merely on a narrower measure.“Section 15(1)… permits valuation based on the entire stake,” and “merely because a different method of valuation… may also have been possible, it does not render the Rule unconstitutional,” the note added.For online gaming and casinos, the judgment clarifies when tax liability arises. The court held that the taxable event is triggered when players commit funds to participate in games with uncertain outcomes and no longer retain control over those funds.This also alters the treatment of player funds. The ruling notes that once amounts are committed for participation, “such arrangements cannot be considered deposits or entrustments,” and “the entire staked amount is treated as consideration for the supply.”In the case of casinos, the position is very clear. The court held that tax would be levied on each instance of staking money on an uncertain outcome, and not on the operator’s net earnings or gross gaming revenue.“The mention of staking money on ‘uncertain future outcomes’ may have broader implications for promotional and skill contests with deterministic scoring, and similar other formats. Key operational elements such as wallet architecture, re-deposits, and cashback will be crucial to determine tax demands, especially considering amendments to GST Rules 31 and 31B affecting valuation,” Vijaivergia said.Tax experts say that, broadly, the GST law will now apply where money or money’s worth is staked on uncertain outcomes, and such amounts are treated as consideration for the supply.
Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of IndiGo, fell more than 1% to their day's low of Rs 4,425 on the BSE on Wednesday after it suspended flights to and from Manchester from August 31, as prolonged airspace restrictions and rising operational expenses continue to weigh on long-haul services.The airline said the temporary suspension will lead to the return of one of the six Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft leased from Norse Atlantic Airways, which were brought in to support its long-haul international expansion plans.In a statement issued on Tuesday, IndiGo said ongoing international airspace constraints have significantly increased flight durations, while a difficult cost environment has made operations on the route increasingly challenging. As a result, services between India and Manchester will be paused from August 31, 2026.The carrier had inducted six Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners on damp lease from Norse Atlantic Airways in early 2025 as part of its strategy to accelerate entry into European markets before the arrival of its own Airbus A350 aircraft. The Manchester service was among the first long-haul routes launched under this initiative.According to the airline, a combination of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, elevated aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, severe airspace restrictions and currency volatility pushed operating costs well above original expectations.Abhijit Dasgupta, Senior Vice President for Network Planning and Revenue Management at IndiGo, said the route had received a strong response from passengers despite the operational difficulties."We inducted these wide-body aircraft on a short-term basis to fast-track our connectivity to high-potential long-haul destinations such as Manchester and witnessed very encouraging demand response," Dasgupta said."Unfortunately, longer flying times due to airspace constraints coupled with dramatically escalating costs compelled us to take the decision to temporarily discontinue our India-Manchester services," he added.The airline stressed that the suspension is only temporary and reaffirmed its commitment to growing its long-haul international network. Dasgupta said the positive customer response had strengthened IndiGo's confidence in the long-term viability of the Manchester route and its wider international expansion plans.IndiGo also said affected passengers will be notified in advance and assisted with alternative travel options or refunds, wherever applicable. The airline clarified that all of its other long-haul international services will continue to operate as scheduled.IndiGo Q4 snapshotIndia’s leading airline by market share reported a net loss of Rs 2,536 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, compared with a net profit of Rs 3,067 crore in the corresponding period last year. Revenue from operations, however, edged up 1% year-on-year to Rs 22,438 crore.The airline said its operational performance during the quarter was affected by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), increased 3.4% year-on-year to 43.6 billion. IndiGo shares have fallen 20% in the last six months and about 17% in the last 1 year. Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Trump administration on Tuesday formally appealed a judge's order for refunds of the US president's global tariffs after they were struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year.At stake is some $166 billion in revenue. A refunds system handled by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has already begun to process repayments.Last month, the CBP said in a court filing that it was on track to process about $85 billion in repayments, with $20.6 billion approved for disbursement.But the latest appeal could potentially impact this operation.After returning to the White House last year, President Donald Trump moved swiftly to impose sweeping tariffs on allies and competitors alike, tapping the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to target different countries with different rates.In February this year, the high court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing these duties.A judge of the Court of International Trade has since ruled that refunds should take place, although giving room for the CBP to comply with the order.The agency estimated in March that more than 330,000 importers could be eligible for repayments.Hundreds of companies have sought to get their money back, including small businesses and major firms like delivery and freight giant FedEx and warehouse retailer Costco.Trump however has said that he would remember US companies that did not seek tariff refunds, signaling that he might view them more favorably.Since the Supreme Court ruling -- which did not affect Trump's sector-specific tariffs -- the US leader has tapped separate authorities to slap a new 10-percent tariff on imports.This is temporary, however, as US officials move to enact more lasting duties.
Shares of Alkem Laboratories witnessed block deals worth about Rs 930 crore on Tuesday, with promoter family entities selling shares to a clutch of domestic mutual funds and foreign institutional investors. According to NSE block deal data, a total of 17.88 lakh shares changed hands at Rs 5,200 apiece. The transaction value works out to about Rs 930 crore.On the sell side, Jayanti Sinha sold 12.38 lakh shares, while Samprada & Nanhamati Singh Family Trust offloaded 5.5 lakh shares. Together, the two sellers divested 17.88 lakh shares. The shares were acquired by a mix of domestic and foreign institutional investors.Among the largest buyers were ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, which purchased 9.04 lakh shares, and HDFC Mutual Fund, which bought 5.1 lakh shares. Other participants included DSP Mutual Fund, Nippon India Mutual Fund, Morgan Stanley Asia Singapore, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, Societe Generale and Edelweiss Mutual Fund.The deal comes after a strong run in Alkem Laboratories shares over the past year, supported by steady growth in its domestic formulations business, improving margins and a recovery in its US operations.Alkem is among India's leading pharmaceutical companies with a strong presence in acute therapies, chronic segments and international markets. The participation of large domestic mutual funds in the transaction suggests continued institutional interest in quality healthcare names despite broader market volatility.Shares of Alkem Laboratories are likely to remain in focus as investors assess the impact of the stake sale and changes in promoter shareholding following the transaction.
New Delhi: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested four promoters of a real estate group in connection with a money laundering probe into an alleged Rs 2,004-crore homebuyer fraud that affected more than 19,000 buyers and investors.The accused, Avdhesh Kumar Goel, Rajnish Mittal, Atul Gupta and Vikas Gupta, are promoters/directors of Earth Infrastructures Ltd. They were arrested on June 1 under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), an official statement said on Tuesday.The accused were produced before a special PMLA court in Delhi, which granted the agency five days' custody for interrogation, it said.Read More: Signature Global commits Rs 1,200-1,500 crore for land acquisitions in FY27According to the federal agency, the group collected around Rs 2,004 crore from more than 19,425 homebuyers and investors by promising timely delivery of residential and commercial units and assured returns.The agency alleged that its probe found approximately Rs 467 crore had been diverted or siphoned off through various group entities and related concerns and individuals."Despite receipt of substantial funds from the buyers/investors, the projects were either left incomplete or possession of units was not handed over, thereby causing wrongful loss to the homebuyers and investors," the ED said.The probe further revealed that a part of the alleged proceeds of crime was used for acquisition of movable and immovable assets in the names of various entities and individuals connected with the promoters and directors of the group, it said.The investigation was initiated based on five FIRs registered by the Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of Delhi Police against Earth Infrastructures Ltd, its directors and related entities under various provisions of the Indian Penal Code.The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) has also filed a criminal complaint under Section 447 of the Companies Act against the promoters and directors of the group.Read More: Amazon adds 10.6 acres to Mumbai data centre campus in Rs 125 crore dealEarlier in April, the ED had conducted searches at premises linked to the Earth Group across Delhi-NCR.During the raids, the agency seized cash worth about Rs 6.30 crore, jewellery valued at around Rs 8.78 crore and property documents relating to more than 100 immovable properties estimated to be worth over Rs 100 crore.
China is pitching itself as the global fulcrum for the next phase of artificial intelligence and a legion of robotics companies is lining up initial public offerings to test investor appetite.Unitree Robotics, one of the most recognizable names in the industry after its robots practicing martial arts made headlines, on Monday received approval for a listing in Shanghai. Its IPO will serve as an early test for what could be a broader wave of offerings. Hong Kong alone has at least 46 robotics-related companies in the pipeline, more than 10% of applicants, according to a report. Companies that have filed IPO applications include Leju Robotics and Deep Robotics. “Chinese humanoids are one step closer to IPOs, igniting market interest on humanoids in the second half of 2026,” Sheng Zhong, head of China industrials research at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note. “Funds from most of the Chinese humanoids’ IPOs will go toward R&D, especially robot models.” The deep pipeline of robotics IPOs mirrors the fast rise of China’s AI ecosystem, where an array of listings whipped up an investor frenzy in the past six months. It also aligns with Beijing’s push to shift high-tech industries from innovation to large-scale deployment. China is rushing to set the pace of funding, industrialization and ultimately leadership in what Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang calls “physical AI.” Shares of OneRobotics (Shenzhen) Co. jumped as much as 18% in Hong Kong on Tuesday, while component maker Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. gained as much as 11% on the mainland. 131456136“This is the decade of the robot – and it belongs to China,” Barclays analysts, including Zornitsa Todorova, wrote in a note last month. “This leadership reflects a decade-long, state-guided push.”The firm says China’s robotics roll-out is already unmatched, accounting for 50% of global industrial robots and 85% of humanoids in 2025. Backed by coordinated industrial policy and tight supply-chain control, humanoids could reach about 3.8% of the nation’s labor capacity by 2035, it estimates. Unitree got a nice shoutout from Nvidia’s Huang on Monday, when he showcased his company’s endeavors in robotic AI. The two companies have partnered to build humanoid “reference” machines, featuring five-fingered hands and built-in chips to replace cumbersome “Frankenrobots” in research labs.Some investors remain more cautious, though, when looking at the companies’ fundamentals. Many robotics firms are expected to burn cash for years and concerns are mounting that valuations could run ahead of earnings.A gauge of humanoid robot stocks has fallen about 13% this year, after registering a 47% gain in 2025. ChinaAMC CSI Robot ETF, a major exchange-traded fund tracking robot-related stocks, has seen net fund outflows for most of this year. Valuations were also elevated, with the sector trading at about 40 times forward earnings, compared with about 14 times for the CSI 300 Index, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.“Investors trading at such elevated valuations are typically not driven by long-term fundamentals, but rather by the pursuit of short-term price gains,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “It indicates that sentiment is driven more by market dynamics than by conviction or long-term vision.”The state-run China Securities Journal also struck a cautious tone in an editorial published Tuesday, warning that pre-IPO valuations may outpace fundamentals, with many firms still unprofitable, raising the risk of a sharp correction if growth or commercialization disappoints. Still, prospective issuers can look at the performance of China tech IPOs this year, with many listings thousands of times oversubscribed and producing big gains on their debuts. Two of those companies, AI model developers Knowledge Atlas Technology Joint Stock Co. and MiniMax Group Inc. last month gained inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index after massive rallies since their January listings. For investors, the robotics companies can also offer a way to benefit from the rapid expansion of a cutting edge industry, said Zhou Nan, founder and investment director of Shenzhen Long Hui Fund Management Co.“With continued advances in AI, the robotics sector is poised for substantial long-term growth,” Zhou said. “Robotics is expected to become a key driver of enterprise value, and progressively complement or replace human labor across a wide range of use cases.”
Mumbai: Two years of challenging equity market returns appear to be prompting a section of retail investors to reassess exposure to the stock market, with industry data showing rising monthly systematic investment plan (SIP) discontinuations and a slowdown in new investor additions.SIP halts continued to outpace new registrations in April, with stoppage ratio at 101%, unchanged from March, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). This indicates that more SIP accounts were closed than opened during the month.Importantly though, flows through SIPs, the mainstay of domestic investments, have remained resilient.131452535Not a Short-term Game This support has been critical for equities amid overseas investors stampeding out of the Indian markets. Any change in that trend would have led to greater market turmoil.Still, the discontinuation trend has worsened over time, with the 12-month SIP stoppage ratio rising to 94.5% in March 2026, compared with 75.6% in March 2025 and 52% in March 2024.Fresh investor additions slowed in April as well, with 295,000 new investors entering mutual funds, taking the total investor base to 61.7 million. This marks the slowest monthly addition since June 2023.In comparison, the industry added 700,000 and 500,000 new investors in February and March, respectively. The pace has moderated in the past two years, with 7.2 million additions in the 12 months ended March, compared with 9.7 million in the preceding year.The growing SIP stoppages and the drop in fresh investor additions underscore dissatisfaction over lower-than-expected returns from equity schemes."Two years ago, many investors came in after watching incredibly high returns from the small cap space," said Swarup Mohanty, vice chairman and CEO, Mirae Asset Investment Managers. "With high returns not coming their way now, they are disappointed."An SIP in the broad-based Nifty 50 would have lost 2.56% over the last two years, while an investment in the broad Nifty 500 would have fetched 0.83%."Many investors came with high return expectations in short time spans," said Viraj Gandhi, chief executive, Samco Mutual Fund. "As returns over the last two years are low, new investors are slow to come by, while some investors who expected high returns could move to other avenues, which is a natural phenomenon."
Bengaluru: Electric vehicle maker Ola Electric Mobility on Monday approved the opening of its qualified institutional placement (QIP) and set a floor price of ₹37.74 per equity share for the issue, according to a stock exchange filing.The company's fund raising committee approved the launch of the issue on June 1 and cleared the preliminary placement document for institutional investors. The company may also offer a discount of up to 5% on the floor price in line with Sebi regulations, the filings read.QIP is a way for listed companies to raise money from large institutional investors such as mutual funds, insurance firms, sovereign funds and foreign portfolio investors, without going through a public issue process.The fundraising comes at a time when Ola Electric is navigating slowing sales, market share pressures and continued losses in the electric two-wheeler market. The company on May 14 also announced ₹2,000 crore investment into its wholly-owned subsidiaries focused on electric vehicle and battery manufacturing, as it looks to double down on localisation and vertical integration.Ola reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 500 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2026, narrowing 42.5% from Rs 870 crore in the year-ago period, aided by lower expenses. In Q3, the company had reported a loss of Rs 487 crore. For the full 2026 financial year, the company posted a consolidated net loss of Rs 1,833 crore compared with Rs 2,276 crore in FY25. Revenue from operations fell sharply to Rs 2,253 crore from Rs 4,514 crore a year ago. Brokerages have also flagged concerns around market share erosion and cash burn. Citi earlier downgraded the stock to and cut its target price, citing persistent challenges to volume growth and rising balance sheet pressures. The company recently reported a recovery in registrations, with May registrations rising to 14,752 units. Ola said the issue price will be determined in consultation with the book running lead managers. “For Q1 FY27, we expect 40,000- 45,000 orders and consolidated revenue of Rs 500-550 crore, nearly double Q4 levels. As volumes recover, we expect the auto business to move towards adjusted operating EBITDA and free cash flow positivity through FY27,” Aggarwal said in its shareholder’s letter. The company’s focus remains on its EV products, particularly electric motorcycles and cell manufacturing, he added. Ola’s shares on Monday closed at Rs 39.53 on BSE, 4.91% lower compared to previous trading session. The QIP announcement was made post market hours.
Mumbai: Information technology stocks surged on Monday, dodging a weak broader market, with the Nifty IT index closing at its highest level since April 23, as attractive valuations and recent AI-led partnerships drew investor interest and prompted traders to build some fresh long positions.The Nifty IT index advanced 2.7%, its strongest single-day gain in nearly two weeks (since May 19), even as the benchmark Nifty declined 0.7%. Tech Mahindra, Infosys and LTM rose 3.7% each, while Persistent Systems gained 3.6%. Coforge and Oracle Financial Services Software advanced 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively."Indian IT firms are following suit of American companies like Anthropic and OpenAI by taking up contracts and tie-ups which are perceived as promising by investors," said Gaurav Sharma, head of Research, Globe Capital.Wipro's expanded Agentic AI partnership with ServiceNow and Coforge's acquisition of Encora have helped ease concerns that had weighed on the sector earlier due to AI-linked disruption fears.The rebound comes after a sharp underperformance this year. The Nifty IT index has fallen over 21% so far in 2026, compared with a 10.5% decline in the benchmark Nifty. The recent momentum has turned positive, with the IT index gaining about 3% over the past week, while the Nifty has fallen 2.7%.131452365"The open interest has doubled in the past couple of months in large-cap IT stocks, indicating a huge build-up of short positions," said Jay Vora, Technical Analyst, Mirae Asset Sharekhan. "On Monday, while short positions remained as is, traders built fresh long positions in the space."Vora said that a more meaningful short covering rally would require stocks to move above key technical levels, with most large-cap names currently 2-3% below their 40-day exponential moving averages."There are short positions in the midcap IT companies as well, but it is not as significant as the large caps," he said.The rebound in IT shares is also on account of valuations falling below 10-year averages following the recent sell-off."Large-cap names like TCS and Infosys are trading at mouthwatering levels, close to 16-17 times Price to Earnings, while midcap companies like Coforge, Oracle and Mphasis are around 20-30 times PE, which are attractive," Sharma said.While near-term volatility may persist, valuations remain compelling over a two-to-three-year horizon, he said. Sharma's top picks are OFSS, Tech Mahindra, Coforge and Mphasis, and recommends IT Exchange Traded Funds for retail investors.The momentum favours IT stocks now, though the index is nearing key hurdles."Technically, the Nifty IT index has immediate support established at the 29,300-28,900 zone, while initial resistance is positioned at 30,500, with a broader multi-week position of 31,200," said Nischal Jain, Quant Researcher, Share.Market by PhonePe.Sharma said the Nifty IT index is on the verge of a breakout from an inverse head and shoulder pattern, which could extend the rally towards 31,500.