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'The conviction in India continues to be very high'

Bank stocks rally as RBI steps lift mood, trigger short covering

Bank stocks gained as much as 5% on Tuesday after the raft of measures introduced by RBI to help hedge foreign currency borrowings stoked investor optimism and led to traders covering some of their bearish bets.Bank Nifty rose 2.1% to 55,194.50; and closed above 55,000 levels after two weeks while benchmark Nifty moved 0.5% higher on Tuesday. All 14 constituents of Bank Nifty moved higher on Tuesday. .Bank of Baroda jumped 5.5% while Canara Bank climbed 4.5%. Punjab National Bank and Federal Bank advanced around 3.5%."The measures by RBI are likely to drive a healthy deposit base for banks and lead to cheaper cost of funds since the hedging cost on FCNRB is borne by the Central Bank while the hedging costs on ECB's is subsidised," said Dharmesh Kant, head of research, Cholamandalam Securities.131622603Last week, the RBI announced measures to boost foreign currency inflows and to support the rupee. The Central Bank offered concessional dollar-rupee swap facility to absorb the entire forex hedging costs for three-to-five-year Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR[B]) deposits until October 16, 2026. In addition, it offered a concessional swap facility for eligible External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) raised by public sector entities, fixing the hedging cost at 1.5% per annum.This policy allows Indian banks to access low-cost global capital and alleviate domestic deposit crunches without bearing currency risk, said analysts. "The sudden fundamental clarity triggered massive technical short covering, catching derivative traders by surprise and sparking a rapid short squeeze since the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) had dropped into an oversold zone below 0.80 ahead of the news," said Nishchal Jain, Quant Researcher, Share. Market by Phone Pe.The high-volume breakout past 55,100 and decisive price action, shifts the market regime from "sell on rallies" to "buy on dips", establishing 55,000 as a strong psychological support base- forming a high-conviction bullish view, he said.

Chinese humanoids are one step closer to IPOs

China is pitching itself as the global fulcrum for the next phase of artificial intelligence and a legion of robotics companies is lining up initial public offerings to test investor appetite.Unitree Robotics, one of the most recognizable names in the industry after its robots practicing martial arts made headlines, on Monday received approval for a listing in Shanghai. Its IPO will serve as an early test for what could be a broader wave of offerings. Hong Kong alone has at least 46 robotics-related companies in the pipeline, more than 10% of applicants, according to a report. Companies that have filed IPO applications include Leju Robotics and Deep Robotics. “Chinese humanoids are one step closer to IPOs, igniting market interest on humanoids in the second half of 2026,” Sheng Zhong, head of China industrials research at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note. “Funds from most of the Chinese humanoids’ IPOs will go toward R&D, especially robot models.” The deep pipeline of robotics IPOs mirrors the fast rise of China’s AI ecosystem, where an array of listings whipped up an investor frenzy in the past six months. It also aligns with Beijing’s push to shift high-tech industries from innovation to large-scale deployment. China is rushing to set the pace of funding, industrialization and ultimately leadership in what Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang calls “physical AI.” Shares of OneRobotics (Shenzhen) Co. jumped as much as 18% in Hong Kong on Tuesday, while component maker Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. gained as much as 11% on the mainland. 131456136“This is the decade of the robot – and it belongs to China,” Barclays analysts, including Zornitsa Todorova, wrote in a note last month. “This leadership reflects a decade-long, state-guided push.”The firm says China’s robotics roll-out is already unmatched, accounting for 50% of global industrial robots and 85% of humanoids in 2025. Backed by coordinated industrial policy and tight supply-chain control, humanoids could reach about 3.8% of the nation’s labor capacity by 2035, it estimates. Unitree got a nice shoutout from Nvidia’s Huang on Monday, when he showcased his company’s endeavors in robotic AI. The two companies have partnered to build humanoid “reference” machines, featuring five-fingered hands and built-in chips to replace cumbersome “Frankenrobots” in research labs.Some investors remain more cautious, though, when looking at the companies’ fundamentals. Many robotics firms are expected to burn cash for years and concerns are mounting that valuations could run ahead of earnings.A gauge of humanoid robot stocks has fallen about 13% this year, after registering a 47% gain in 2025. ChinaAMC CSI Robot ETF, a major exchange-traded fund tracking robot-related stocks, has seen net fund outflows for most of this year. Valuations were also elevated, with the sector trading at about 40 times forward earnings, compared with about 14 times for the CSI 300 Index, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.“Investors trading at such elevated valuations are typically not driven by long-term fundamentals, but rather by the pursuit of short-term price gains,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “It indicates that sentiment is driven more by market dynamics than by conviction or long-term vision.”The state-run China Securities Journal also struck a cautious tone in an editorial published Tuesday, warning that pre-IPO valuations may outpace fundamentals, with many firms still unprofitable, raising the risk of a sharp correction if growth or commercialization disappoints. Still, prospective issuers can look at the performance of China tech IPOs this year, with many listings thousands of times oversubscribed and producing big gains on their debuts. Two of those companies, AI model developers Knowledge Atlas Technology Joint Stock Co. and MiniMax Group Inc. last month gained inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index after massive rallies since their January listings. For investors, the robotics companies can also offer a way to benefit from the rapid expansion of a cutting edge industry, said Zhou Nan, founder and investment director of Shenzhen Long Hui Fund Management Co.“With continued advances in AI, the robotics sector is poised for substantial long-term growth,” Zhou said. “Robotics is expected to become a key driver of enterprise value, and progressively complement or replace human labor across a wide range of use cases.”

Bearish move or buying opportunity? Geojit's Anand James on Nifty levels and top stocks to watch

Market volatility took center stage following a sharp late-Friday sell-off triggered by MSCI rebalancing and global cues. While cautious sentiment prevails, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, highlights critical Nifty support levels that could prevent further damage. In this exclusive interview, he breaks down the June series rollover data, IT sector resilience, and top stock picks.Edited excerpts from a chat:The sell-off seen in the last 30 minutes on Friday has scared traders as to what could be in the offing on Monday morning. What do you think?IMD’s below-normal monsoon forecast and uncertainty over US-Iran talks in the backdrop gave an ominous feel to the drop that unfolded towards Friday’s close. However, the steepness of the fall is apparently due to MSCI rebalancing, with futures and options segment appearing reluctant to match such move. Nevertheless the large red candle registered on Nifty’s chart needs to be acknowledged, and we will start the new week on a cautious note. That 23500 was defended, gives us reason to be optimistic, but slippage past the same, or inability to reclaim the 10 day SMA near 23750 will confirm bearishness calling for 22800.Nifty has been seeing profit booking at higher levels in last few weeks. What does the rollover data indicate for the June series?The rollover data for June series suggests a cautious to mildly negative undertone despite selective strength. Nifty’s rollover dropped to 69.98% in May, below the 3-month average of 73.05%, indicating reduced willingness to carry forward positions, likely reflecting profit booking at higher levels. Similarly, Bank Nifty rollover moderation points to some cooling in conviction within the heavyweight banking segment.Market breadth has weakened as well, with only 52% of stocks closing positive vs 91% in April, highlighting broader profit-taking pressure. While strong rollovers in select sectors like Oil & Gas, Metals, Power and Infra signal pockets of resilience, weakness in Pharma, Healthcare, and Transportation suggests lack of uniform participation.Although long buildup was visible in Telecom, Capital Goods, and Pharma, the early trend in June appears cautious. Importantly, banks-despite prior long build-up-have started the June series on a weak footing, with heavyweights like SBI and HDFC Bank under pressure, which could weigh on Nifty due to their high index weight.Nifty IT is showing signs of resilience even during sell-off. What are the charts indicating at?The Nifty IT index is showing early signs of a trend reversal after a prolonged corrective phase. On the daily chart, the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern suggests a base-building process, with prices currently hovering near the neckline zone around the 29,500-29,600 region. A sustained move above this level could confirm a breakout and trigger momentum towards higher resistances.On the higher timeframe, the weekly MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, indicating a potential shift from bearish to positive momentum. This aligns with improving price structure and supports the medium-term recovery thesis.From a longer-term perspective, the monthly candlestick is forming a pin bar Doji, typically seen near inflection points, highlighting rejection of lower levels around the 27,000-28,000 zone and signaling demand absorption.However, confirmation is key. Immediate support lies near 28,000, while a decisive breakout above the neckline could open upside towards 31,000-32,000. Failure to sustain above key resistance may keep the index range bound.HFCL was among the top gainers of the week. Do you see signs of the momentum continuing in the week ahead?Long wicked candle on Friday, with a close above upper bollinger band point to a mix of strong trending nature and emerging cautiousness. Oscillators appear reluctant, but are yet to confirm an impending collapse. With these in the backdrop, longs may be held on to, but ideally with a stop loss placed near 168.Natco Pharma fell 14% on Friday after weak Q4 results. Do you see signs of bottom-fishing emerging in the coming week?Yes. The single day red candle which has resulted in a break of structure, is likely to be followed by bottom fishing and a pull back rally that could extend 3-4%. However, we do not see enough signs to indicate that such pull back attempt could sustain.Give us your top ideas of the week. INDIANB (LTP: 833)View: BuyTarget: 930SL: 790 Indian Bank continues to maintain a structurally strong uptrend on the weekly chart, characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows since early 2024. The recent profit booking since April seems to have found a support near 800 healthy consolidation after a sharp rally, with the stock holding firmly above the 780-750 support zone, which now acts as a strong demand base.Despite the recent pullback from near 1000 levels, the correction appears time-wise rather than price-destructive, suggesting profit booking rather than trend reversal. The presence of a rising support trendline reinforces the bullish structure.Momentum indicators are cooling off from overbought levels, which is constructive in a trending market. The RSI is stabilising near the mid-zone, providing room for a fresh upside leg, while MACD is approaching levels where a potential bullish crossover on lower drawdown could emerge.SHYAMMETL (LTP: 973)View: BuyTarget: 1080SL: 930 Shyam Metalics is exhibiting a strong bullish breakout from a descending trendline on the weekly chart, indicating a potential resumption of the broader uptrend after a period of consolidation. Price has decisively moved above the 950-960 resistance zone, which also coincided with prior swing highs, adding conviction to the breakout.The structure reflects higher lows formation, suggesting steady accumulation. Momentum indicators are turning supportive with RSI trending upward above the mid-zone, while MACD has delivered a bullish crossover with rising histogram, reinforcing improving momentum. Weekly Supertrend breakout adds to positivity. Volume expansion near the breakout area further validates buyer participation and strengthens the breakout reliability. Additionally, price holding above short-term supports near 930 indicates a favorable risk-reward setup.As long as the stock sustains above the breakout zone, it is well-positioned to extend its upward move towards the 1080 target.

How Charlie Munger’s behavioral lessons apply to today’s market reality

In an environment where global equities are swinging between optimism around AI-led growth and anxiety over persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, investors are once again being tested, not on intelligence, but on psychology.Charlie Munger’s famous list of “human misjudgment tendencies” is not just a philosophical framework. It is, in today’s market, a practical survival guide.Markets in 2026 are still being shaped by three dominant forces:(1) higher-for-longer interest rates, (2) liquidity concentration in a few mega-cap stocks, and (3) emotionally driven retail participation.Against this backdrop, Munger’s behavioral warnings feel unusually relevant.1. The real enemy is not volatility, but emotional distortionMunger repeatedly warned that investors don’t lose money because they lack information, they lose because they misprocess it.Today’s markets amplify that problem.Every CPI print, Fed commentary, or geopolitical headline triggers immediate overreaction. Investors are constantly pulled between fear of missing out (FOMO) in AI-led rallies and fear of correction during rate jitters.This is a classic combination of:Availability bias (overweighting recent news)Social proof (following crowded trades)Stress-induced reaction (panic buying or selling)In Munger’s language, this is the setup for “avoidable stupidity.”2. “Envy and FOMO” are silently driving modern portfoliosOne of Munger’s strongest warnings was about envy, not as emotion, but as a financial destroyer.In today’s market, envy doesn’t look like jealousy of a neighbour. It looks like:Chasing AI stocks after they’ve already rerated sharplyComparing portfolio performance with index benchmarks dailyAbandoning long-term positions because “others are making faster money”When liquidity is abundant in a narrow set of names, envy becomes structurally embedded in portfolio behaviour. Investors are no longer asking “Is this a good business?” but “Am I missing this move?”That shift is dangerous in a market where leadership is concentrated and reversals can be abrupt.3. The “Lollapalooza effect” is stronger than everMunger described the Lollapalooza effect as multiple biases reinforcing each other into extreme outcomes.Today’s version looks like this:Social media hype amplifies narrativesAlgorithmic flows reinforce momentumPassive inflows concentrate capital into large indicesRetail traders amplify short-term spikesThe result: prices detach from fundamentals faster, and corrections become sharper when sentiment shifts.This is why today’s rallies often feel effortless, but reversals feel violent.4. Overconfidence is rising with “easy market memories”A prolonged period of strong returns, especially in largecap tech, creates what Munger called “excessive self-regard”.Many investors now assume:“Buying dips always works”“Quality stocks never go down much”“The Fed will rescue markets eventually”But in a higher-rate regime, that assumption is no longer guaranteed. Valuation compression risk is real, and earnings must now do more of the heavy lifting.Confidence built in one regime often breaks in another.5. The biggest risk today: avoiding pain too aggressivelyOne of Munger’s less discussed but critical ideas is “pain-avoidance behavior”.In today’s context, it shows up as:Selling winners too early to “lock in gains”Avoiding fundamentally strong but volatile sectorsSitting excessively in cash due to fear of drawdownsIronically, in trying to avoid discomfort, investors often underperform the very market they are trying to survive.6. What works in today’s market: Munger-style disciplineIf we translate Munger’s philosophy into today’s environment, a few principles stand out:(1) Concentrate only when conviction is realNot based on stories, but on durable cash flows and long-term pricing power.(2) Expect volatility as a feature, not a flawEven high-quality companies will see sharp drawdowns in a rate-sensitive world.(3) Reduce decision frequencyMost mistakes come from over-trading emotional signals disguised as “information.”(4) Build a bias checklistBefore acting, ask:Am I reacting to news or value?Am I following the crowd?Would I make this decision in isolation?7. The current market lesson in one lineIf Munger were observing today’s markets, the warning would likely remain unchanged:“The biggest returns still come from avoiding obvious psychological errors, not from predicting the next move.”Bottom lineToday’s markets are not irrational, but they are emotionally amplified. Liquidity, technology, and information speed have not removed human bias; they have accelerated it.That is exactly the environment where Munger’s framework becomes most powerful. Because in the end, investing success is still less about knowing more, and more about misbehaving less.