The Economic Times (India)
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The Economic Times · "CONFIRMS" · 총 6건
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An unprecedented concentration crisis in global technology equities has evolved into a structural trap for investors, triggering a violent "Black Monday" unwind that is reverberating across Asian emerging markets, such as Korea and Taiwan. Active portfolio managers are increasingly being forced to dump their best-performing chip heavyweights because these explosive stocks have grown too large for risk compliance limits.This structural anomaly has distorted regional benchmarks, accelerated a massive migration from active to passive funds, and triggered a historic correction.The structural breakdown manifested in extreme volatility across the region's tech hubs. South Korea’s Kospi index plunged more than 8% shortly after the market opened, triggering a mandatory 20-minute trading halt before narrowing its drop as memory giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rebounded from their session lows.Also Read | Kospi crashes 9%, trading halted for 20 minutes, as chip rout deepens; Samsung, SK Hynix worst hitThe Cycle of Forced SellingThe core of the market distortion lies in a mechanical paradox: As tech giants outperform, active funds are legally or structurally required to trim their holdings to manage concentration risks. Just three mega-cap tech firms—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), Samsung, and SK Hynix—now command nearly a third of the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index.The concentration is even more extreme on a national level. TSMC occupies a staggering 41.5% of Taiwan's TAIEX, while Samsung and SK Hynix together comprise 55% of South Korea's KOSPI."We have been forced sellers of TSMC, Samsung and MediaTek," Sam Konrad, investment manager for Asia Equity Income at Jupiter Asset Management, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. His fund must shed these chipmaking stocks despite explosive year-to-date gains of 52% for TSMC, 159% for Samsung, and 184% for MediaTek.This mechanism creates an institutional dilemma where strong performance mandates divestment, artificially capping the upside for active portfolios trying to beat their benchmarks."As equities continue to outperform, funds will find it increasingly difficult to add exposure, reinforcing a cycle of forced selling and enlarging underweight positions even amid strong fundamentals," Herald Van der Linde, head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific at HSBC in Hong Kong, noted in a research report. HSBC data confirms that TSMC has become the largest portfolio underweight among Asian and global emerging-market funds.Emerging Market Exhaustion and Fund OutflowsData from Elara Securities India confirms that the Global Emerging Market (GEM) trade is experiencing its first major phase of sustained exhaustion since its rally began. GEM fund redemptions expanded to $3 billion, the largest outflow since December 2021, marking a clear breakdown in momentum.The capital flight has extended significantly beyond Korea and Taiwan to hit other major emerging markets. China saw foreign investors pull $3.7 billion, the largest single-week redemption in over a year, while South Korea logged six consecutive weeks of foreign outflows, compounded by a record $27.9 billion foreign portfolio rebalancing outflow.The systemic nature of the unwind is visible in the broader indices. Goldman Sachs data reveals that while the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is up 27% year-to-date, it is actually down 4% when South Korea and Taiwan are excluded.This regional distortion has accelerated a massive, unprecedented migration from active stock-picking to passive indexing. Over the last five years, Asia's active funds have suffered $269 billion of cumulative outflows. Meanwhile, passive funds have accumulated $510 billion, with a quarter of that volume arriving in just the last six months."The size of recent inflows into the region’s passive funds... has no precedent across the last 10 years," said William Bratton, head of cash equity research for Asia-Pacific at BNP Paribas Securities.This phenomenon mirrors the “Magnificent Seven” dynamic on Wall Street, where tech giants account for about a third of the S&P 500. However, concentration in Asia has unfolded at a faster and more extreme pace, turning regional indices into concentrated bets on just one or two stocks and undermining the diversification benefits of benchmark investing.Broader Trade ImplicationsThe shockwaves from the AI tech unwinding are bleeding directly into structural commodities and the wider electrification ecosystem. Precious metal funds witnessed $2.8 billion of outflows, driven heavily by gold (-$2.1 billion) and silver (-$910 million, a 12-week high redemption), while energy funds recorded their second consecutive week of outflows. These asset classes had operated as indirect beneficiaries of the global AI infrastructure and electrification trade.Furthermore, Wall Street's nine-week winning streak concluded abruptly following a hot jobs report that ignited fears of a hawkish policy pivot by the US Federal Reserve, sending technology stocks into their largest one-day decline.Despite the steep selloffs, which saw South Korean equities slide 12% and Taiwan fall 6% from their record highs, market opinions remain starkly divided on whether this correction marks a peak or a buying opportunity.Some money managers are exploiting the correction to pivot to alternatives further down the supply chain, like mid-sized semiconductor equipment makers, or shifting money toward cheaper domestic themes like robotics. China's CSI Robot Index actually bucked the broader market declines, rising 1.4%.
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
The shares of Vedanta and Hindustan Zinc declined 1% each on Wednesday after the former confirmed in an exchange filing that the Enforcement Directorate team visited some of its offices, confirming news reports."We hereby inform that the Enforcement Directorate team visited some offices of our company and Hindustan Zinc, a subsidiary of the company," Vedanta said after stock exchanges sought clarification regarding news reports around ED conducting searches against Vedanta Group in FEMA probe. The Anil Agarwal-led company added that it is fully cooperating with the authorities and providing all requested information.In another exchange filing released on Tuesday, Vedanta said that the proceedings are underway. “We wish to reiterate that the Company is and will continue to comply with SEBI Listing Regulations and keep the stock exchange(s) duly informed of all material information / events, including price sensitive information(s), in accordance with the applicable provisions,” it added.Also Read | Vedanta says ED officials visited some of its offices, Hindustan Zinc unitsThe Economic Times reported on Tuesday, citing officials, that ED conducted searches at premises linked to the Vedanta Group in Delhi and Mumbai as part of a Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) investigation.In a quote to ET Bureau, Vedanta spokesperson said, "We are extending full cooperation to the authorities and are providing all information sought. The company remains committed to compliance with all applicable laws and regulations. As the matter is currently under regulatory process, we are unable to comment further at this stage."Also Read | ED searches against Vedanta Group in FEMA caseICRA's ratings upgradeLast week, ratings agency ICRA removed the company from watch with developing implications after greater clarity on the allocation of assets and liabilities under the ongoing demerger scheme.ICRA upgraded Vedanta’s long-term rating to AA+ (Stable), assigned a stable outlook and reaffirmed the short-term rating. "The rating action factors in ICRA’s expectation of a further strengthening in the credit profile of the Vedanta Group in FY2027, building on the considerable improvement witnessed in FY2026. This has been supported by a sharp increase in base metal prices, which has contributed to a strong financial risk profile for the Group, which reported an OPBDITA of $6.7 billion in FY26,” the ratings agency said.Also Read | Vedanta shares jump 2% to hit fresh 52-week high. What’s behind the surge?Vedanta share priceVedanta shares have tumbled 6% in one week but gained around 23% in one month. The stock recently adjusted to its mega demerger. Vedanta in April had announced that every eligible shareholder would receive one share each of Vedanta Aluminium Metal (VAML), Talwandi Sabo Power (to be renamed Vedanta Power), Malco Energy (to be renamed Vedanta Oil and Gas) and Vedanta Iron and Steel for every share held in the parent company, marking one of the biggest corporate restructurings in India’s metals and mining sector. Investors are now awaiting the listing of the four new companies that spun out of the mining conglomerate.Also Read | Vedanta demerger: At what price will each of the four new companies list? Check cost of acquisitionHindustan Zinc share priceHindustan Zinc shares have fallen around 4% in one week but gained 5% in one month and more than 2% so far in 2026. The stock is up over 33% in one year. In the longer term, the shares of the company delivered 104% returns over three years and 93% returns over five years.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Shares of renewable energy player Suzlon Energy fall 2.2% to Rs 55.87 on the BSE on Monday after capital markets regulator Sebi levied penalties totalling nearly Rs 29 crore on Suzlon Energy and several former executives. Sebi concluded that the company misrepresented its financial position through transactions involving subsidiaries, inflated profits and inadequate disclosures.In a 96-page order issued on May 29, Sebi said Suzlon and certain former executives violated provisions of the Sebi Act, PFUTP Regulations, listing regulations and disclosure requirements. The order replaces an earlier adjudication order issued in June 2025 and confirms multiple violations by the company and its executives.Among the penalised individuals, former executive Vinod R. Tanti was fined Rs 5.75 crore, while Girish R. Tanti was directed to pay Rs 5.45 crore. Former Group CFO Kirti J. Vagadia was fined Rs 1.5 crore and former CFO Amit Agarwal was fined Rs 30 lakh.The matter stemmed from an anonymous complaint received by Sebi in December 2019 alleging irregularities in transactions involving Suzlon's subsidiaries and associate entities. A subsequent forensic audit and investigation covering FY15 to FY20 and the first nine months of FY21 examined several issues, including dealings with subsidiaries, impairment reversals, contingent liabilities and financial statement disclosures.Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action hereOne key observation related to the transfer of Suzlon's operations and maintenance services business to its subsidiary, Suzlon Global Services Ltd, in March 2014. Sebi noted that the business, valued at around Rs 77 crore, was transferred for Rs 2,000 crore, resulting in Suzlon recording an accounting gain of Rs 1,922.92 crore.According to the regulator, the subsidiary lacked the financial capacity to fund the transaction. Sebi found that a significant portion of the consideration was subsequently reflected as paid through circular movement of funds between the two entities. The regulator said the arrangement created artificial profits and inflated the company's net worth. It observed that Suzlon's FY14 net worth would have been Rs 741 crore without the transaction, compared with the reported figure of Rs 2,664 crore.Sebi further noted that Suzlon later booked an additional gain of Rs 829.78 crore by transferring its stake in the subsidiary to another wholly owned entity, effectively recognising profit a second time on the same underlying assets. According to the regulator, these transactions helped the company portray a stronger financial position and supported subsequent fund-raising and restructuring efforts.The order also addressed a standby letter of credit connected to loans taken by a foreign subsidiary. Sebi said a contingent liability of about $569 million, or roughly Rs 4,050 crore, which had been disclosed in FY17, was not reflected in FY18 contingent liability disclosures after being reclassified under an accounting standard related to insurance contracts. The regulator held that the treatment was inappropriate and materially reduced the visibility of the company's financial exposure.In addition, Sebi reviewed investments and loans involving subsidiaries SE Forge Ltd and Suzlon Gujarat Wind Park. It found that several transactions involved circular routing of funds, conversion of loans into equity and later impairment of investments. According to the regulator, these transactions resulted in financial statements that did not accurately represent the underlying economic substance.Sebi concluded that the company's financial statements and disclosures failed to present a true and fair view of its financial position. The regulator said financial statements and disclosures form the basis on which investors and other market participants assess a listed company's financial health and prospects.While Sebi noted that disproportionate gains and investor losses could not be quantified with precision, it said the violations were serious because they related to financial information disseminated to investors and relied upon by the market.Sebi imposed the penalties under provisions relating to fraudulent and unfair trade practices, disclosure lapses and violations of listing obligations. The notices must pay the penalties within 45 days of receiving the order.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The markets traded in a volatile and largely range-bound manner through the week before ending with a modest loss. Nifty oscillated in a 605-point range, registering a high of 24,089.80 and a low of 23,484.75 before settling near the lower end of the weekly range.The sharp decline witnessed on Friday was largely driven by MSCI rebalancing-related flows, resulting in accelerated profit-taking and a weak close for the week. India VIX rose by 9.60% to 16.19, reflecting a pickup in volatility expectations and some increase in market nervousness following the late-week selloff. Nifty ended the week with a loss of 171.55 points (-0.72%).The broader technical structure remains in a consolidation phase. However, the sharp selloff towards the end of the week has once again dragged the immediate resistance levels lower, with the 23,800 zone emerging as the first significant hurdle that the index must overcome. As long as Nifty remains below this level, the ongoing consolidation is likely to continue.On the downside, the index continues to hold above the lower boundary with the support zone placed in the 23,300-23,400 area. A decisive move beyond either end of thisrange could set the tone for the next directional move.The markets are likely to begin the coming week on a cautious note after Friday's sharp decline. Immediate resistance levels are placed at 23,800 and 24,000, while supports come in at 23,350 and 23,100.A sustained move above 23,800 would improve the near-term technical outlook and may trigger fresh buying interest. Conversely, any violation of the 23,300 area could invite renewed weakness and increase downside pressure.The weekly RSI stands at 40.84 and remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued momentum and showing no divergence against price. The weekly MACD remainsbelow its signal line and continues to stay in negative territory, reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum.A study of the overall pattern shows that Nifty continues to trade within a consolidation beneath a key supply area. The index remains below its 50-week and 100-week moving averages, placed near 24,936 and 24,535, respectively, indicating that the intermediate trend has yet to regain full strength. At the same time, the index remains comfortably above its rising 200-week moving average near 22,057, keeping the long-term structure intact. The ongoing compression between channel support and overhead resistance suggests that the market may be approaching a decisive phase where a directional breakout could emerge over the coming weeks.Given the current technical setup, traders should continue to maintain a balanced and selective approach. The rise in India VIX alongside the failure to sustain higher levels warrants caution, especially near overhead resistance. Fresh buying should remain stock-specific and focused on pockets displaying relative strength. Traders would be better served by protecting gains, maintaining disciplined risk management, and avoiding aggressive directional bets until the index confirms strength by moving above 23,800. The coming week is likely to reward selectivity and prudent positioning rather than broad-based aggressive exposure.In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of allthe listed stocks.The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) shows that the Nifty Midcap 100, Energy, Media, Pharma, and Metal Indices are inside the leading quadrant. While the Pharma and Energy groups are showing a slowdown in their relative momentum, overall, these groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets.The Nifty Infrastructure and the PSE Indices are inside the weakening quadrant. Collectively speaking, these groups may see a slowdown in their relative performanceagainst the broader markets.The PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty Bank, Services Sector, Financial Services, and Auto Indices also continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. These groups are set to relatively underperform the broader markets. The Nifty IT Index is also in the lagging quadrant; however, it is showing a sharp improvement in relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.The FMCG and the Realty Index are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue to improve their relative performance against the benchmark.Important Note: RRGTM chartsshow the relative strength and momentum of a group ofstocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against the NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.