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RBI may absorb hedging cost to spur ECBs

World’s hottest market has Korea bulls reaching for protection

A wave of optimism over South Korean stocks is giving way to growing caution, as some investors hedge positions and pare back crowded trades on concerns that the rally has run too hot, too fast.Hedge fund Golden Horse Fund Management has trimmed exposure and added derivative protection, while M&G Investments has cut memory and foundry holdings to broaden out down the AI supply chain. A Bloomberg Intelligence analysis of options on the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF shows investors seeking protection against a decline. The fund tumbled 14% Friday in the US.The moves highlight the challenge facing global money managers. While investors remain upbeat about Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., the two chip giants that powered Kospi’s more than 90% rise this year, many are becoming pickier about where to put new money and keeping cash ready for opportunities elsewhere.Friday’s selloff in US tech stocks, driven by fears of higher interest rates, shows how quickly popular trades can unwind once sentiment shifts. That risk could spillover into Korea once local markets open.“We’ve been trimming gross exposure at the margin and layering derivative protection over the last few weeks,” said Yi Ling Ong, managing partner at Golden Horse Fund. Several large IPOs, including a SpaceX listing this month, could lead to rotation as funds raise cash to participate, making it “prudent to hold some dry powder,” she said.131561937Over the past year, Korean stocks captured global attention as a combination of the AI boom and the government’s successful corporate reform propelled the index to new highs. Strong earnings potential continues to underpin bullish sentiment, but the extended rally has led to crowding in a few major players, leaving the market vulnerable to abrupt reversals. The benchmark tumbled 7% at one point on Friday.The caution is showing up in the derivatives market.“The debate isn’t whether the Kospi story remains attractive — it’s how to stay invested without giving back a portion of the gains,” said Tanvir Sandhu, global chief derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. Options activity in the EWY ETF suggests investors are becoming more cautious, with demand shifting from upside exposure to downside protection, he said.Some investors are looking for opportunities beyond Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, whose meteoric rise propelled them into the $1 trillion valuation club and helped Korea briefly overtake India as the world’s sixth-largest stock market.“The alpha lies lower down the value chain — in the picks-and-shovels of the picks-and-shovels,” said Vikas Pershad, portfolio manager at M&G, referring to companies that benefit from spending on AI infrastructure without being at the heart of the trade.Not Bearish To be sure, the rotation doesn’t signal investors turning bearish on Korea. Valuations remain cheaper than in rival tech hub Taiwan and investors say the market still offers one of the strongest AI-linked stories in global equities. At 8.6 times forward earnings, the Kospi trades below its five-year average of 10 times and is much cheaper than Taiwan’s benchmark, which trades at about 20 times, data compiled by Bloomberg show.Earnings upgrade cycle has also started to broaden. Excluding Samsung and SK Hynix, the rest of the Kospi is now expected to deliver more than 50% profit growth this year, up from just 20% in January, according to Golden Horse Fund. 131561965“The speed of the rally has been vertiginous but in this type of market I would rather let the rally continue,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “Exiting now will make it very difficult to re-invest later if the market doesn’t correct.”Still, foreign outflows have become a concern. Global funds have pulled a record $76 billion this year, selling in every session over the past month. While part of the retreat is due to technical limits on single-stock holding, the selling has been absorbed by more fickle retail investors — a dynamic that may heighten volatility.At the same time, some investors are growing wary of rising retail leverage. The concern is that popularity of leveraged ETFs and the planned weekly single-stock options could amplify swings in an already-volatile market. While the products are “really interesting” and show retail participation is growing, they also leave the market “in somewhat of a precarious position in case of a reversal,” Stephane Martin, head of derivatives institutional sales for Asia at Optiver, said at a panel discussion at Bloomberg’s Volatility Forum last week. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

LPG hike: Domestic gas up ₹29/cylinder

Domestic cooking gas LPG prices have been increased by Rs 29 per 14.2-kg cylinder, according to PTI, citing sources. The price of a 14.2-kg domestic LPG cylinder in Delhi has risen from Rs 913 to Rs 942 with effect from June 7.The latest revision comes amid sustained volatility in international energy markets and follows a series of fuel price increases announced in recent weeks.LPG price todayMetroCurrent Price (Rs)New Price (Rs)Delhi913.00942.00Kolkata939.00968.00Mumbai912.50941.50Chennai928.50957.50LPG cylinder price rises to Rs 942 in DelhiThe increase takes the retail price of a standard 14.2-kg domestic LPG cylinder in Delhi to Rs 942.As per the PTI report, industry sources said the revision was necessary as oil marketing companies continue to incur substantial losses on the sale of subsidised domestic cooking gas.The hike follows an earlier increase of Rs 60 per cylinder announced on March 7 after tensions and conflict in West Asia disrupted global energy supplies and pushed up international fuel prices.Why has the LPG price been increased?According to industry sources, the previous increase only partially compensated oil companies for the losses they were incurring on domestic LPG sales.Before the latest revision, state-run fuel retailers were estimated to be losing around Rs 703 on every domestic LPG cylinder sold.Global crude oil and fuel prices have remained elevated in recent months, increasing the financial burden on oil marketing companies.The latest increase is aimed at reducing a portion of those losses, although companies are reportedly still selling LPG below cost.Fuel price hikes extend beyond LPGThe LPG price revision comes as part of a broader trend of rising fuel prices across the country.Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by a cumulative Rs 7.50 per litre since mid-May, while compressed natural gas (CNG) rates have risen by around Rs 6 per kilogram.The increases reflect the impact of higher international energy prices on India's fuel market.Oil companies continue to face lossesDespite the recent price revisions, industry sources said state-owned oil marketing companies continue to absorb significant losses.Petrol is reportedly being sold at a loss of approximately Rs 11 per litre, while diesel sales are resulting in losses of around Rs 33.6 per litre.These figures highlight the pressure on fuel retailers as they attempt to balance commercial viability with concerns over inflation and consumer affordability.Government limits full pass-through of global energy costsThe government has so far avoided passing on the entire increase in global energy prices to consumers.Instead, a portion of the burden has been absorbed by state-owned fuel retailers to shield households and businesses from a sharper rise in fuel costs.However, with global crude oil prices and fuel markets continuing to fluctuate, industry observers say further adjustments may be required if international prices remain elevated for an extended period.Impact of LPG price hike on householdsThe latest increase is likely to affect household budgets, particularly for families that rely heavily on LPG for daily cooking needs.Cooking gas remains an essential household fuel across urban and rural India, and any rise in cylinder prices tends to have a direct impact on monthly expenses.Consumers will now pay Rs 942 for a 14.2-kg domestic LPG cylinder in Delhi, while prices in other cities may vary depending on local taxes and transportation costs.Global energy market remains key factorGeopolitical tensions, crude oil supply disruptions and fluctuations in global demand continue to influence energy prices worldwide.As a result, domestic fuel prices are expected to remain closely linked to international market trends in the coming months.Inputs from PTI

IndiGo soars 5% after Q4 results. What Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and others are saying

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of budget carrier IndiGo, rallied as much as 5% to their day's high of Rs 4,634 on the NSE on Monday despite reporting a net loss of Rs 2,536 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, compared with a net profit of Rs 3,067 crore in the corresponding period last year. Revenue from operations, however, edged up 1% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 22,438 crore.The airline said its operational performance during the quarter was affected by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), increased 3.4% YoY to 43.6 billion.Passenger traffic stood at 31.6 million during the quarter, marking a marginal decline of 1.1% from a year earlier. EBITDAR, excluding foreign exchange impact, stood at Rs 6,435 crore, down from Rs 6,862 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The EBITDAR margin narrowed to 28.7% from 31%.IndiGo shares: Should you buy, sell or hold?Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 5,200, implying an upside of 18% from current levels. The Wall Street major said the airline did not provide full-year FY27 capacity guidance, while elevated costs continue to remain an overhang. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the broader Indian aviation sector, barring IndiGo, continues to face weak profitability and balance sheet stress. The brokerage has retained its valuation at 10x FY28 estimated EV/EBITDAR.Jefferies maintained its Buy rating but lowered its target price to Rs 5,380 (22% upside) from Rs 5,500. The brokerage said the airline delivered a weak but largely in-line performance in the fourth quarter and expects the near-term outlook to remain challenging amid elevated cost pressures. For the first quarter, IndiGo has guided for mid-teen growth in unit revenue, largely driven by higher pricing, with demand so far remaining resilient enough to absorb part of the cost increases. Jefferies believes operating conditions will remain difficult in the near term, though the environment is likely to be even more challenging for peers.Motilal Oswal maintained its Buy rating on IndiGo with a target price of Rs 5,600, implying an upside potential of 27%. The brokerage said that despite near-term challenges from Middle East airspace disruptions, elevated fuel prices, rupee depreciation and higher damp-lease exposure, it remains positive on the airline's long-term growth strategy.It believes IndiGo is well positioned to benefit from India's strong domestic aviation demand and steadily expanding international network. Looking ahead, Motilal Oswal expects a gradual normalisation of international operations, a reduction in Pratt & Whitney-related aircraft groundings, ongoing fleet additions, and the deployment of A321XLR aircraft on international routes to support an earnings recovery.JM Financial maintained its Add rating with a target price of Rs 5,000, noting that capacity growth remained subdued due to the Middle East conflict. IndiGo reported ASK growth of 3.4% year-on-year to 43.6 billion in Q4FY26 and has guided for 3-4% ASK growth in Q1FY27, with most of the increase expected to come from domestic metro and leisure routes.The brokerage expects this, coupled with mid-teen PRASK growth on a favourable base, to support a recovery in unit economics. Capacity was significantly impacted by the West Asia conflict, with around 18% of total capacity affected and more than 160 daily international flights disrupted in March 2026. However, the airline indicated that capacity recovered to around two-thirds of normal levels in May and expects full normalisation by the end of June. JM Financial also highlighted that the number of grounded aircraft remains in the 40s but is likely to decline to the 30s by year-end, which could provide a meaningful boost to both capacity and costs.Elara Capital maintained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 6,020, arguing that the stock's roughly 25% decline over the past six months due to flight disruptions, the Middle East conflict, higher crude oil prices and rupee weakness has created an attractive opportunity. The brokerage believes the market is overly focused on near-term challenges while overlooking the benefits of a prolonged industry-wide capacity shortage.It highlighted that domestic advance fares are up around 17% year-on-year, while international advance fares have risen nearly 40%. Elara also noted that IndiGo reported an adjusted profit of Rs 25 billion in Q4FY26 despite a non-cash foreign exchange loss of Rs 48 billion. Additionally, competitor capacity reductions have been deeper than IndiGo's, supporting the airline's market share gains and pricing power. While the brokerage has lowered its FY27 EBITDA estimate by 7% to account for higher crude oil and rupee assumptions, its FY28 estimates remain broadly unchanged.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Oil prices tumble 11% for biggest weekly drop in 7 weeks. Where is liquid gold headed from here?

It was a strong week for global markets as oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels in seven weeks, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation after reports suggested the United States, Israel and Iran were nearing a much-awaited peace deal agreement. Oil prices this weekBrent crude tumbled about 11% during the week, marking its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 9%, its biggest weekly drop in six weeks. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since mid-April. On Friday, Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 a barrel, down $1.66 or 1.8%. WTI crude futures closed at $87.36 a barrel, a decline of $1.54 or 1.7%.The three-month conflict involving the U.S. and Iran has repeatedly seen expectations of a potential resolution that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies pass. While both sides indicated that an agreement may be near, their descriptions of the proposed deal continued to differ.U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Iran to immediately reopen the strait. The closure of the vital waterway has pushed energy prices higher across global markets. This week, trading has remained highly volatile, with both Brent and WTI swinging by as much as $6 on changing signals surrounding the possibility of the strait reopening.Geopolitical tensions escalated on Thursday after fresh U.S. strikes targeted an Iranian military facility overnight, despite ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran.Iran's Revolutionary Guards later claimed responsibility for a strike on a U.S. airbase, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. The location of the base was not disclosed.Where is oil headed?Market analysts noted that even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months. Any damaged energy infrastructure may require an even longer period to return to full operation.Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could postpone stability in global oil markets until 2027. He said nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week could be affected by continued disruptions. Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil producer.Morgan Stanley described the oil market as being in "a race against time," saying the factors that have so far prevented a more pronounced rise in crude prices could begin to fade if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June.According to the brokerage, higher U.S. crude exports and softer demand from China have helped absorb part of the supply shock. However, it cautioned that an extended shutdown of the strait could tighten global oil supplies again if disruptions persist beyond the levels that the U.S. and China can comfortably offset.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)