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As Opec+ meets, Iran war hobbles power to shape oil market
LONDON, June 7 — Opec+ ministers meet today to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that...
"OPEC+" · 총 12건
필터 보기현재 지수
50.3
0 = 부정 우세
50 = 중립
100 = 긍정 우세
최근 7일 기준 85,132건을 분석한 결과, 뉴스 심리지수는 50.3(균형)입니다. 긍정 4,306건(5.1%)·중립 78,811건(92.6%)·부정 2,015건(2.4%)이며, 중립 비중이 뚜렷하게 높습니다. 성향 지수는 종합 15.0(중도 균형)입니다.
LONDON, June 7 — Opec+ ministers meet today to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that...
Even if the cartel members vow to ramp up output by thousands of barrels per day, analysts say geopolitical realities mean they probably won't move prices.
OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that have surged since the Iran war effectively choked off Gulf crude shipments.But even if the cartel members vow to ramp up output by thousands of barrels per day, analysts say geopolitical realities mean they probably won't move the needle on prices.Also read: OPEC+ leaders expected to up July oil output target despite Hormuz disruption, sources sayWith the crucial Strait of Hormuz shut since US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have nearly doubled, igniting inflation pressures worldwide.Ministers from the 21 member states of OPEC+, the main oil producing nations and their allies, are holding their quarterly meeting online.The group is likely to beef up its production quotas by "188,000 barrels a day", said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, similar to recent increases. But in reality, only seven members -- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- have the capacity to do so.Dwindling supply Tehran's threats of retaliatory attacks to US and Israeli strikes have virtually blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass.That is equivalent to about 20 million barrels a day. But with key Gulf producers shut out of the global market, pledges to raise output in a bid to ease spiralling prices are unlikely to sway traders. "Any announced production increases or changes to output targets will have limited practical value," said Ole Hansen, a commodities analyst at Saxo Bank."There is very little OPEC can do," he told AFP.OPEC+ itself says daily production has plummeted to just 33 million barrels a day as tankers remain stuck, compared to nearly 43 million before the conflict.A US blockade on Iranian ports means "it will be even less than that" in reality, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at data firm Kpler.Also read: Oil prices fall on mounting hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran WarUAE slams the door The United Arab Emirates' recent decision to quit OPEC further saps away at the cartel's influence, given its huge excess production capacity.And Abu Dhabi has made clear it wants to boost output."They don't want to be dictated to, they want to maximise their revenues," said Lawrence Haar, a lecturer in finance at the University of Brighton in England. And the cartel risks seeing other countries follow the UAE's example."If Iraq were to leave, it could mark the end of OPEC+," Falakshahi said.Saudi Arabia, by far the cartel's most influential member, "is going to do what it takes to stop anyone else from leaving," Falakshahi predicted.That could translate into more flexible output quotas or decreased penalties for any excess production.But "for now, the compensation framework has effectively become irrelevant due to widespread production shut-ins," Hansen said.As a result, the Iran war has largely neutralised the cartel's stated mission "to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, and a steady income to producers". For Falakshahi, the only factor limiting further oil price spikes at the moment is China, "which is buying less oil than normal" by tapping into its vast strategic reserves.
OPEC+ ministers and OPEC countries have their meetings once in six months
Russia reduced oil production by 1.5 mln barrels per day, or 15%, during the period of OPEC+ restrictions, Executive Secretary of the presidential commission on fuel and energy sector development strategy and environmental security and Rosneft CEO said
Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin stated American energy firms are the primary beneficiaries of a Strait of Hormuz closure, warning of long-term damage to oil demand and a boost for alternatives. He also highlighted global resource shortages and questioned OPEC+'s effectiveness, noting Russia's production decline and need for investment.
According to the official, the Middle Eastern countries are utilizing the existing pipeline infrastructure of Saudi Arabia and the UAE but the market still faces a deficit
The Russian deputy prime minister said that OPEC+ operates jointly, making decisions on a voluntary basis only
The russian official noted that uncertainties in global markets and the economy had increased exponentially
Nobody believed initially that this deal is possible but when it took place, everyone understood its meaning, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund added
Russia’s OPEC+ oil production quota for June is 9.762 mln barrels per day
At the start of 2026, oil traders were preparing for a glut. Supply growth was expected to outpace demand growth. OPEC+ was gradually returning barrels to the market. U.S. production remained near record highs. Economic growth was slowing, while electrification and efficiency gains were expected to temper consumption growth. The consensus view was simple: the world was heading into a period of excess supply. Six months later, that narrative never came true. Not because the world suddenly ran out of oil. In fact, many major producers are pumping…