The Economic Times (India)
중도 성향
기타
"HEDGING" · 총 8건
필터 보기현재 지수
50.3
0 = 부정 우세
50 = 중립
100 = 긍정 우세
최근 7일 기준 79,353건을 분석한 결과, 뉴스 심리지수는 50.2(균형)입니다. 긍정 4,159건(5.2%)·중립 73,150건(92.2%)·부정 2,044건(2.6%)이며, 중립 비중이 뚜렷하게 높습니다. 성향 지수는 종합 15.2(중도 균형)입니다.
As India sees incessant FII selloff so far this year, the government and RBI announced a slew of measures to ease foreign investments in government securities, with analysts suggesting that these may provide some short-term support for Dalal Street.India scrapped the long-term capital gains tax on investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in government securities through an ordinance issued on Friday. The government has now exempted FIIs from tax on any interest income from government securities, as well as capital gains arising from their sale, exchange or transfer, according to an official gazette. Separately, while announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also unveiled a series of measures to boost FPI investments, including expanding the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to cover new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year government bonds.Limits on investments by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments without Sebi registration are being raised, allowing them to invest larger amounts without regulatory registration. The facility is also proposed to be extended to all Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), bringing them on par with NRIs and OCIs. This came as the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%What does this mean for Indian stock market?The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without Sebi registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, which is expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows, said Arun Poddar, CEO of Choice International.He highlighted that equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. “This move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period,” he said.The government's move to exempt Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities is “highly positive” for the capital markets, said Sumit Singhania, Head of Research at Bajaj Broking. “This fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments,” he added.The policy is distinctly positive for bond markets and well-capitalized Banks and NBFCs, which benefit from targeted hedging subsidies and systemic stability, according to Archit Doshi, Senior Vice President at PL (Prabhudas Lilladher) AMC. “Conversely, one should be underweight rate-sensitive sectors, which remain highly vulnerable to margin compression, higher inflation expectations, and the threat of the RBI reaching its tightening tipping point,” he said.Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO of Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund, also said that the announcements aimed at enabling more dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. “The concessional swap facility should help stabilise short end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term,” he said.For equities and debt markets, the measures to attract FII inflows are supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, they signal a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure, said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP of Research at Religare Broking.Sachin Bajaj, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, also said that the initiatives are expected to support capital inflows, deepen domestic bond markets, and provide support to the Indian rupee over the short to medium term.RBI’s hawkish tone and the Indian stock marketWhile the measures taken to attract FII inflows in the debt market will likely provide short-term support for Dalal Street, analysts advised caution over the RBI’s hawkish policy stance. While the RBI maintained its policy repo rate as per expectations, the tone was much more cautious than in previous meetings.Sachin Bajaj highlighted that the policy emphasised preserving macroeconomic stability amid the prevailing global macroeconomic environment. “We believe there are significant risks to inflation in the coming months due to the pass-through of higher commodity prices to consumers and elevated food prices resulting from a below-normal monsoon. Going forward, there is a risk of an upward revision in inflation projections, and given the evolving global backdrop, we believe the RBI is likely to maintain a prudent, data-dependent approach. Future policy actions will be contingent on evolving growth-inflation dynamics and global developments,” he added.Also read: Explained: Sebi's Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue inflation allegations against Rajesh ExportsWhile hawkish rhetoric without an accompanying rate hike provides a temporary respite for equity markets, it does not constitute an unequivocal endorsement of investment, particularly in highly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automotive, and consumer discretionary goods, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors.“Should inflation necessitate a rate increase later this year, these sectors are likely to experience pressure on both margins and demand. For investors, the current strategy emphasises capital preservation by focusing on high-quality equities with strong pricing power. This cautious approach is designed to navigate the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties until conditions stabilise,” the analyst added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
A New York City bar is joining in the Knicks mania — offering free drinks to patrons, and hedging the risk on Kalshi.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has announced a significant change to trading hours in the equity derivatives segment with the introduction of the Closing Auction Session (CAS) framework.Starting August 3, 2026, the normal market closing time for equity derivatives will be extended by 10 minutes to 3:40 pm from the current 3:30 pm. While the extension is noteworthy, the bigger change lies in how closing prices for eligible securities will be determined.The move aims to ensure a smoother transition between the cash and derivatives markets at the end of the trading day while maintaining consistency in the pricing framework across segments.What is the closing auction session?The CAS is a structured trading window held at the end of the trading day. During this period, market participants place buy and sell orders to determine a single closing price for a security through an auction-based mechanism.Unlike the current system where prices evolve through normal trading until market close, the auction process discovers a fair closing price based on orders entered during the designated session.According to the exchange, CAS will initially apply only to securities in the cash segment that have derivative contracts available. The framework will roll out in phases, and any future expansion will be subject to SEBI guidance and separate operational instructions from the exchange.Why are derivatives trading hours being extended?Although CAS applies only to the equity segment, NSE decided to extend trading hours in the derivatives segment to ensure both markets remain aligned during the closing process.The exchange also clarified that the price bands and pre-trade risk control measures introduced as part of CAS in the cash market will be mirrored in the derivatives segment. This is intended to maintain consistency between the two segments during the closing phase of trading.How will the closing auction session work?The CAS will run for 20 minutes, from 3:15 pm to 3:35 pm. The process will begin with a transition phase between 3:15 pm and 3:20 pm, during which the reference price will be calculated using the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of trades executed between 3:00 pm and 3:15 pm.Between 3:20 pm and 3:25 pm, participants will be able to enter both market and limit orders. From 3:25 pm to 3:30 pm, only limit orders will be permitted. During this period, market orders cannot be modified or cancelled.The order entry session will close randomly at any point between 3:28 pm and 3:30 pm, after which the auction process will determine the final closing price.How will closing prices be calculated?One key point highlighted by NSE is that there will be no change in the methodology used to calculate closing prices of derivative contracts. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) used for derivatives closing price calculation will continue to be based on trades executed during the final 30 minutes of trading. However, because market hours are being extended, that 30-minute window will now shift to 3:10 pm-3:40 pm instead of the current 3:00 pm-3:30 pm.For securities eligible for CAS, the closing price in the cash segment will be determined through the auction process.Ashish Nanda, President and Digital Business Head at Kotak Securities summed up the shift by noting that the market is moving from a "continuous trading close" to an "auction discovered close".Under the current framework, closing prices are derived from the VWAP of trades executed between 3:00 pm and 3:30 pm. Under the new framework, closing prices for F&O-eligible stocks will effectively be linked to a 20-minute auction process running from 3:15 pm to 3:35 pm.What happens if a stock is removed from F&O?NSE clarified that eligibility for CAS is linked to the presence of derivatives on the stock. If a security is excluded from the equity derivatives segment on both exchanges, it will no longer be eligible for the CAS.In such cases, the closing price will revert to the existing methodology and be determined using the VWAP of trades executed during the last 30 minutes of trading. However, if the security continues to be part of the derivatives segment on at least one exchange, it will remain eligible for CAS.What happens to pending orders?The exchange outlined operational changes relating to order management. All unexecuted special orders, including stop-loss orders and disclosed quantity orders, will be cancelled. Pending orders that fall outside the revised price band will also be cancelled automatically, and members will receive appropriate cancellation notifications.Why does this matter for traders?For many market participants, the biggest implication is that the final closing price may no longer mirror the last traded price visible on trading screens at 3:30 pm.According to Ashish Nanda, this could require adjustments to trading strategies, particularly for option writers and arbitrageurs who rely heavily on closing prices for valuation, settlement and hedging decisions.While the derivatives market will remain open until 3:40 pm, the broader shift is not simply about extending trading by 10 minutes. It marks a change in how closing prices for eligible securities are discovered, with the exchange moving toward an auction-based mechanism designed to determine a single closing price at the end of the trading day.What happens to existing market timings?Apart from the revised closing time, most trading schedules remain unchanged. The pre-open session in the derivatives segment will continue to begin at 9:00 am and the normal trading session will continue to start at 9:15 am. Similarly, the trade modification window will remain unchanged and continue until 4:15 pm.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
With Indian markets trading near elevated long-term averages, relying on a single, static asset class carries higher risk. According to Ihab Dalwai, Senior Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential AMC, high return dispersion means the real opportunity over the next three years lies in a flexible asset allocation framework that actively shifts capital between equities, debt, and commodities to deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes.Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager:How different is Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy from your existing Balanced Advantage Fund or Multi-Asset Fund, which you already co-manage?Unlike the traditional mutual fund offerings such as Balanced Advantage Funds (BAF) or Multi-Asset Funds, the Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy is structurally different as it operates within the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) framework, which provides decent higher portfolio flexibility.While BAFs and Multi-Asset Funds primarily manage net exposure through hedging and dynamic allocation, the SIF structure allows us to deploy a wider range of derivative-based strategies. This enables the portfolio to potentially generate returns not only from directional market participation but also from relative opportunities across asset classes and market conditions.Another key difference is the breadth of the opportunity set. The strategy dynamically allocates across equities, debt, commodities, InvITs and derivatives, with the flexibility to actively recalibrate exposures depending on valuations, macros and risk-adjusted opportunities. The objective is to create a more adaptive portfolio that seeks smoother outcomes across cycles while maintaining a disciplined buy low, sell high philosophy.At a time when Indian markets are trading near elevated long-term averages, how are you reading the current risk-reward equation across equities, debt and commodities? Which asset class currently looks most attractive from a three-year perspective?From a three-year perspective, we believe investors should avoid thinking in terms of a single winning asset class. The current environment is more suited for dynamic asset allocation because return dispersion across asset classes could remain high.Equity valuations have corrected in pockets where expectations are low and such opportunities have increased over the last 1-2 years. At the same time, fixed income has become relatively more attractive after the sharp repricing in global rates. Commodities, especially precious metals, performed well over the last year due to dollar devaluation, however that trend has currently paused because of rising rates in the US.In our view, the opportunity today lies in actively shifting between these asset classes rather than remaining concentrated in one asset class. Over the next three years, a flexible allocation approach may potentially deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes than static exposure.Your framework talks about “being invested the right way at the right time.” What are the biggest macro variables driving your current asset allocation stance?Our framework for equities combines a valuation plus earnings overlays. In case of debt and commodities, our allocation is based on various macro indicators. The key macro variables we monitor include growth trends, inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, real interest rates, currency movements and earnings cycles. At a broader level, we try to identify the prevailing growth-inflation regime because different asset classes tend to perform differently across economic phases. For example, equities and cyclical commodities generally perform better during growth-led expansions, while gold and duration assets tend to outperform during slowdown or uncertainty-driven phases.Commodities are emerging as a bigger allocation theme globally. Do you believe Indian investors remain structurally underallocated to commodities if we exclude household gold?Commodities has to be seen from a tactical allocation perspective rather than a structural allocation as they don’t pay either dividend or interest as other asset classes do. Hence, give the sharp run up in commodity prices, we don’t see an issue with relatively lesser allocation to commodities today.How do you see gold behaving if global growth weakens but inflation remains sticky?It is a tricky situation because the outlook on real rates is not clear. Historically gold as an asset class tends to do well when US real rates come off.What role do InvITs play in the portfolio construction process, especially in a rising interest rate environment?InvITs can play an important diversification role within the portfolio because they provide exposure to infrastructure-linked cash flow assets that are relatively distinct from traditional equity and debt instruments.In a rising rate environment, there can be near-term valuation pressure on yield-oriented assets, including InvITs. However, the impact also depends on the strength and growth visibility of the underlying assets and cash flows. Therefore, selective allocation becomes important rather than taking a broad-based view.Do you think that midcaps are now in a sweet spot and, barring a few pockets, unimpacted by the geopolitical conflict? In your Large and Midcap Fund, how overweight are you on midcaps?Midcaps continue to offer selective opportunities, particularly in businesses benefiting from domestic economic formalisation, manufacturing expansion, financialisation and government-led capex. However, after the strong rally seen over the last few years, valuations in certain parts of the midcap universe continue to remain elevated. Therefore, midcaps are not a homogeneous segment. Stock selection and valuation discipline become increasingly important in the current environment.Within the midcap universe, which sectors do you like from a 3-5 year perspective and why?The approach to midcaps has to be bottom up. Having said that, there are opportunities in certain platform companies and consumer facing businesses which have meaningfully underperformed over the last three years and have muted expectations from the market which makes them a good investment case today.
With Indian markets trading near elevated long-term averages, relying on a single, static asset class carries higher risk. According to Ihab Dalwai, Senior Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential AMC, high return dispersion means the real opportunity over the next three years lies in a flexible asset allocation framework that actively shifts capital between equities, debt, and commodities to deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes.Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager:How different is Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy from your existing Balanced Advantage Fund or Multi-Asset Fund, which you already co-manage?Unlike the traditional mutual fund offerings such as Balanced Advantage Funds (BAF) or Multi-Asset Funds, the Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy is structurally different as it operates within the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) framework, which provides decent higher portfolio flexibility.While BAFs and Multi-Asset Funds primarily manage net exposure through hedging and dynamic allocation, the SIF structure allows us to deploy a wider range of derivative-based strategies. This enables the portfolio to potentially generate returns not only from directional market participation but also from relative opportunities across asset classes and market conditions.Another key difference is the breadth of the opportunity set. The strategy dynamically allocates across equities, debt, commodities, InvITs and derivatives, with the flexibility to actively recalibrate exposures depending on valuations, macros and risk-adjusted opportunities. The objective is to create a more adaptive portfolio that seeks smoother outcomes across cycles while maintaining a disciplined buy low, sell high philosophy.At a time when Indian markets are trading near elevated long-term averages, how are you reading the current risk-reward equation across equities, debt and commodities? Which asset class currently looks most attractive from a three-year perspective?From a three-year perspective, we believe investors should avoid thinking in terms of a single winning asset class. The current environment is more suited for dynamic asset allocation because return dispersion across asset classes could remain high.Equity valuations have corrected in pockets where expectations are low and such opportunities have increased over the last 1-2 years. At the same time, fixed income has become relatively more attractive after the sharp repricing in global rates. Commodities, especially precious metals, performed well over the last year due to dollar devaluation, however that trend has currently paused because of rising rates in the US.In our view, the opportunity today lies in actively shifting between these asset classes rather than remaining concentrated in one asset class. Over the next three years, a flexible allocation approach may potentially deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes than static exposure.Your framework talks about “being invested the right way at the right time.” What are the biggest macro variables driving your current asset allocation stance?Our framework for equities combines a valuation plus earnings overlays. In case of debt and commodities, our allocation is based on various macro indicators. The key macro variables we monitor include growth trends, inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, real interest rates, currency movements and earnings cycles. At a broader level, we try to identify the prevailing growth-inflation regime because different asset classes tend to perform differently across economic phases. For example, equities and cyclical commodities generally perform better during growth-led expansions, while gold and duration assets tend to outperform during slowdown or uncertainty-driven phases.Commodities are emerging as a bigger allocation theme globally. Do you believe Indian investors remain structurally underallocated to commodities if we exclude household gold?Commodities has to be seen from a tactical allocation perspective rather than a structural allocation as they don’t pay either dividend or interest as other asset classes do. Hence, give the sharp run up in commodity prices, we don’t see an issue with relatively lesser allocation to commodities today.How do you see gold behaving if global growth weakens but inflation remains sticky?It is a tricky situation because the outlook on real rates is not clear. Historically gold as an asset class tends to do well when US real rates come off.What role do InvITs play in the portfolio construction process, especially in a rising interest rate environment?InvITs can play an important diversification role within the portfolio because they provide exposure to infrastructure-linked cash flow assets that are relatively distinct from traditional equity and debt instruments.In a rising rate environment, there can be near-term valuation pressure on yield-oriented assets, including InvITs. However, the impact also depends on the strength and growth visibility of the underlying assets and cash flows. Therefore, selective allocation becomes important rather than taking a broad-based view.Do you think that midcaps are now in a sweet spot and, barring a few pockets, unimpacted by the geopolitical conflict? In your Large and Midcap Fund, how overweight are you on midcaps?Midcaps continue to offer selective opportunities, particularly in businesses benefiting from domestic economic formalisation, manufacturing expansion, financialisation and government-led capex. However, after the strong rally seen over the last few years, valuations in certain parts of the midcap universe continue to remain elevated. Therefore, midcaps are not a homogeneous segment. Stock selection and valuation discipline become increasingly important in the current environment.Within the midcap universe, which sectors do you like from a 3-5 year perspective and why?The approach to midcaps has to be bottom up. Having said that, there are opportunities in certain platform companies and consumer facing businesses which have meaningfully underperformed over the last three years and have muted expectations from the market which makes them a good investment case today.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has exposed a reality many policymakers long preferred to avoid: The deterrence model that governed the Gulf for decades is no longer working as intended.For years, the region operated in the gray zone — covert strikes, proxy warfare, and carefully managed escalation. Iran built a strategy around missiles, regional partners, and nuclear latency.The United States underwrote Gulf security without direct war. Saudi Arabia and its neighbors relied on that umbrella while hedging against its limits, investing in missile defense and selective partnerships. There were rules, even if unwritten.That world is breaking down. The two-week ceasefire announced The post The End of Managed Escalation in the Gulf appeared first on War on the Rocks.