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India to bargain in trade talks with US, UK

India is seeking to safeguard exporters’ interests in trade negotiations with the US and UK this week, with implications for trade deals with two of its major partners.India will ask for exemptions from any tariffs that may arise from ongoing US trade investigations during talks with a US team led by Brendan Lynch in New Delhi starting Tuesday. Separately, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal will hold talks with his UK counterpart Peter Kyle in New Delhi to seek exemptions for Indian steel exports from British safeguard duties due to take effect next month. New Delhi has warned it could scale back some concessions under the free trade agreement it signed with the UK last year if it does not receive relief.The talks come at a difficult moment for India. The war in Iran, which has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has hit not only energy supplies but also access to a key export market for Indian goods. While the government has moved to cushion the impact on exporters, concerns are growing that a prolonged conflict could weigh on trade this fiscal year. Trade agreements with the US and the UK could help cushion some of those headwinds while attracting foreign investment at a time when the rupee is under pressure. They are also a key part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategy to diversify India’s export markets amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.In the case of the US, however, some analysts argue that New Delhi has less reason to rush.The rationale for quickly concluding a trade deal weakened after the US Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariff framework, according to Ajay Srivastava, founder of the New Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative.“More importantly, a bilateral trade agreement would offer no guarantee against future US trade actions,” Srivastava said. “It would be wise to wait for US trade policy to stabilize than to lock itself into long-term expensive obligations.”Last year, the White House imposed some of the world’s highest tariffs on Indian goods, partly in response to New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. The two countries reached an agreement on an interim trade pact earlier this year, before the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs.Soon afterward, however, the Office of the US Trade Representative launched investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act into several countries, including India, over concerns about forced labor and excess production capacity. If the investigations result in adverse findings, additional tariffs could be imposed.New Delhi has urged Washington to address the issue within the framework of ongoing trade negotiations rather than through unilateral measures. The matter is likely to feature in talks this week between Indian officials and a US trade delegation visiting New Delhi.“Our approach with the US needs a rethink,” said Abhijit Das, a New Delhi-based independent trade expert who has also worked with the Indian government. Also on Tuesday, UK’s Kyle is scheduled to meet Indian officials to discuss speeding up the implementation of the India-UK trade pact. The UK discussions are expected to focus on New Delhi’s concerns over Britain’s recent steel safeguard measures, which India says could restrict market access for its steel exports. On Monday, a senior Indian government official said New Delhi could scale back tariff concessions on a range of British products, including Scotch whisky, under the trade agreement signed last year if the issue is not resolved.

Thailand tourists warned of heavy rain

Tourists planning a trip to Thailand this week may need to prepare for wet weather, possible travel disruptions and rough sea conditions, as the country's meteorological agency has forecast widespread rainfall and thunderstorms across several regions. According to the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD), a strong south-west monsoon over the Andaman Sea, Thailand and the Gulf of Thailand, combined with a low-pressure system off the coast of Vietnam, is expected to bring persistent rain across the country on June 2. Authorities have warned of heavy rain in several provinces and very heavy rainfall along parts of Thailand's west coast in the south. The weather conditions could trigger flash floods and runoff in low-lying areas and locations near waterways. Which tourist areas could be affected? Popular destinations on Thailand's west coast, including Phuket, Krabi, Phang Nga, Trang and Satun, are expected to see the heaviest rainfall, with thunderstorms forecast across 80% of the region.131421089 In eastern Thailand, tourist destinations such as Pattaya and coastal areas in Rayong and Trat could also experience thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain. The forecast for Bangkok and surrounding areas indicates thunderstorms in around 60% of locations, with isolated heavy downpours possible. What should island-hoppers and beachgoers know? Travellers planning boat trips, island tours or water activities should closely monitor local weather advisories. The TMD has warned of rough seas in both the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand. Wave heights in the upper Andaman Sea, including waters around Phuket, are expected to reach 2-3 metres and could exceed 3 metres during thunderstorms. In the lower Andaman Sea, including waters near Krabi and southern islands, waves could rise above 2 metres during storms. Authorities have advised vessels to proceed with caution and avoid sailing through thunderstorm zones. Small boats in the upper Andaman Sea have been advised to remain ashore. How could the weather affect travel plans? Heavy rain may lead to delays for ferry services, island excursions, outdoor sightseeing and adventure activities. Tourists visiting beaches, national parks and mountainous areas should be alert to local weather warnings, particularly in regions vulnerable to flash flooding.

Chinese humanoids are one step closer to IPOs

China is pitching itself as the global fulcrum for the next phase of artificial intelligence and a legion of robotics companies is lining up initial public offerings to test investor appetite.Unitree Robotics, one of the most recognizable names in the industry after its robots practicing martial arts made headlines, on Monday received approval for a listing in Shanghai. Its IPO will serve as an early test for what could be a broader wave of offerings. Hong Kong alone has at least 46 robotics-related companies in the pipeline, more than 10% of applicants, according to a report. Companies that have filed IPO applications include Leju Robotics and Deep Robotics. “Chinese humanoids are one step closer to IPOs, igniting market interest on humanoids in the second half of 2026,” Sheng Zhong, head of China industrials research at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note. “Funds from most of the Chinese humanoids’ IPOs will go toward R&D, especially robot models.” The deep pipeline of robotics IPOs mirrors the fast rise of China’s AI ecosystem, where an array of listings whipped up an investor frenzy in the past six months. It also aligns with Beijing’s push to shift high-tech industries from innovation to large-scale deployment. China is rushing to set the pace of funding, industrialization and ultimately leadership in what Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang calls “physical AI.” Shares of OneRobotics (Shenzhen) Co. jumped as much as 18% in Hong Kong on Tuesday, while component maker Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co. gained as much as 11% on the mainland. 131456136“This is the decade of the robot – and it belongs to China,” Barclays analysts, including Zornitsa Todorova, wrote in a note last month. “This leadership reflects a decade-long, state-guided push.”The firm says China’s robotics roll-out is already unmatched, accounting for 50% of global industrial robots and 85% of humanoids in 2025. Backed by coordinated industrial policy and tight supply-chain control, humanoids could reach about 3.8% of the nation’s labor capacity by 2035, it estimates. Unitree got a nice shoutout from Nvidia’s Huang on Monday, when he showcased his company’s endeavors in robotic AI. The two companies have partnered to build humanoid “reference” machines, featuring five-fingered hands and built-in chips to replace cumbersome “Frankenrobots” in research labs.Some investors remain more cautious, though, when looking at the companies’ fundamentals. Many robotics firms are expected to burn cash for years and concerns are mounting that valuations could run ahead of earnings.A gauge of humanoid robot stocks has fallen about 13% this year, after registering a 47% gain in 2025. ChinaAMC CSI Robot ETF, a major exchange-traded fund tracking robot-related stocks, has seen net fund outflows for most of this year. Valuations were also elevated, with the sector trading at about 40 times forward earnings, compared with about 14 times for the CSI 300 Index, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.“Investors trading at such elevated valuations are typically not driven by long-term fundamentals, but rather by the pursuit of short-term price gains,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based investment bank Chanson & Co. “It indicates that sentiment is driven more by market dynamics than by conviction or long-term vision.”The state-run China Securities Journal also struck a cautious tone in an editorial published Tuesday, warning that pre-IPO valuations may outpace fundamentals, with many firms still unprofitable, raising the risk of a sharp correction if growth or commercialization disappoints. Still, prospective issuers can look at the performance of China tech IPOs this year, with many listings thousands of times oversubscribed and producing big gains on their debuts. Two of those companies, AI model developers Knowledge Atlas Technology Joint Stock Co. and MiniMax Group Inc. last month gained inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index after massive rallies since their January listings. For investors, the robotics companies can also offer a way to benefit from the rapid expansion of a cutting edge industry, said Zhou Nan, founder and investment director of Shenzhen Long Hui Fund Management Co.“With continued advances in AI, the robotics sector is poised for substantial long-term growth,” Zhou said. “Robotics is expected to become a key driver of enterprise value, and progressively complement or replace human labor across a wide range of use cases.”

Anthropic CEO's stark warning on AI-driven layoffs

Powell's parting warning: Keep politics out of Fed

Delhi: hottest in two years, cleanest air in five

New Delhi: The weather in Delhi has experienced extremes this month, with the city recording its hottest May in two years while also enjoying its cleanest air in five years. This unusual weather includes heatwaves, unseasonably warm nights, and thunderstorms.Delhi's average maximum temperature for May reached 39.7 degrees Celsius, with the average minimum temperature at 25.8 degrees Celsius.The last hotter May occurred in 2024, when the average maximum and minimum temperatures were 41.7 degrees Celsius and 26.5 degrees Celsius, respectively.Read more: Delhi-NCR weather alert: 'Extremely Severe' warning issued; thunderstorms, lightning and 90 kmph winds likelyHeatwave conditions were noted from May 18 to 21, with maximum temperatures exceeding 46 degrees Celsius in some areas of the city. Overall, Delhi received 17.61 mm of rainfall during the month.The city also experienced unusually warm nights in May, with minimum temperatures hitting 32.8 degrees Celsius on May 26 and 31.9 degrees Celsius on May 21-among the highest nighttime temperatures recorded in the city in the last 14 years, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).The IMD defines a heatwave as a situation where the maximum temperature exceeds 40 degrees Celsius and is 4.5 to 6.4 degrees Celsius above normal.A warm night is declared when the maximum temperature remains at 40 degrees Celsius or higher, and the minimum temperature is also 4.5 to 6.4 degrees Celsius above normal.Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather attributed the month's fluctuating weather to a combination of western disturbances and induced cyclonic circulations over Rajasthan and adjoining areas, and moisture-laden winds from the Bay of Bengal.Experts said frequent western disturbances and associated weather systems led to early pre-monsoon activity, leading to low temperatures during the first half of May.As these systems weakened, temperatures rose sharply and heatwave conditions developed across parts of Delhi before another spell of strong pre-monsoon activity returned towards the end of the month, they said.Palawat mentioned that thunderstorms, rain and gusty winds intensified during the latter part of May, bringing widespread weather activity across the capital and providing relief from the intense heat over the past few days.Despite the hotter conditions, Delhi recorded its cleanest AQI in May in about five years.An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) showed that the capital's average AQI was 161 until May 29, the lowest for the month since 2021, when it was 144.On Saturday, May 30, Delhi recorded a satisfactory AQI of 85, following widespread rainfall and strong winds. This represented the cleanest air quality day in May since 2023 and the fourth satisfactory air quality day this month.Experts noted that rainfall and intermittent strong winds played crucial roles in dispersing pollutants.While dust transported from Rajasthan caused several dust storm events and deteriorated air quality, localised intense rainfall helped wash out particulate matter and improve the overall air quality in the city.Data showed that from May 1 to May 29, Delhi experienced three satisfactory days, 20 moderate days, and six poor days, with no very poor or severe air quality days.In comparison, May 2021 recorded six satisfactory days, 22 moderate days and three poor days, while the monthly average AQI stood at 144. May 2025 recorded an average AQI of 170 and May 2024 recorded 223.Read more: Delhi Weather Update: Clouds, rain bring sharp cooldown across national capital after weeks of scorching heatLooking ahead, Palawat stated that no heatwave conditions are expected in the first week of June.However, temperatures are forecasted to gradually rise from June 1 as the current spell of rain activity weakens and shifts away from the region.

Hegseth softens China warnings, backs Pacific

Inflation watch intensifies as RBI nears

India needs to remain watchful on the inflation front as rising fuel prices, a weakening rupee and the risk of a below-normal monsoon threaten to rekindle price pressures, the finance ministry said just days before the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision.In its monthly economic review for May, the Department of Economic Affairs said the economy remains "cautiously resilient", with domestic fundamentals largely holding up despite growing global and domestic uncertainties.Also Read: RBI to hold rates in June; majority now expect hike by year-end: Poll"The confluence of elevated global energy prices, a depreciating rupee, rising upstream cost pressures and the prospect of a below-normal monsoon calls for sustained policy vigilance," the ministry said.The assessment comes ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week, with the policy decision due on June 5. Expectations of a tighter policy stance have increased amid concerns over inflationary pressures and efforts to support the rupee, which touched a record low of nearly 97 against the US dollar earlier this month.While retail inflation remained below the RBI's 4% target in April, the ministry cautioned that wholesale price pressures have accelerated sharply, raising the risk that higher input costs could eventually feed into consumer prices.Producer inflation climbed to a more than three-and-a-half-year high in April as elevated energy prices pushed up manufacturing costs. Data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed the wholesale price index rose 8.30% year-on-year, up from 3.88% in March and well above economists' expectations of 5.50%.Also Read: RBI’s currency printing cost falls 23.5% in FY26 despite rise in cash circulationThe ministry also warned that the fallout from the West Asia conflict poses a significant risk to India's inflation and external-sector outlook, particularly through disruptions to energy supplies."The duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption remains the 'single most consequential variable for India's external and price outlook'," it said.According to the review, higher crude oil prices, tighter global financial conditions and slowing world growth are creating headwinds for the Indian economy that cannot be fully insulated from external shocks."Policy will need to remain agile across monetary, fiscal, and structural dimensions to navigate this period of compounded uncertainty, external and climatic, while keeping medium-term growth objectives firmly in view," the ministry said.

How Charlie Munger’s behavioral lessons apply to today’s market reality

In an environment where global equities are swinging between optimism around AI-led growth and anxiety over persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, investors are once again being tested, not on intelligence, but on psychology.Charlie Munger’s famous list of “human misjudgment tendencies” is not just a philosophical framework. It is, in today’s market, a practical survival guide.Markets in 2026 are still being shaped by three dominant forces:(1) higher-for-longer interest rates, (2) liquidity concentration in a few mega-cap stocks, and (3) emotionally driven retail participation.Against this backdrop, Munger’s behavioral warnings feel unusually relevant.1. The real enemy is not volatility, but emotional distortionMunger repeatedly warned that investors don’t lose money because they lack information, they lose because they misprocess it.Today’s markets amplify that problem.Every CPI print, Fed commentary, or geopolitical headline triggers immediate overreaction. Investors are constantly pulled between fear of missing out (FOMO) in AI-led rallies and fear of correction during rate jitters.This is a classic combination of:Availability bias (overweighting recent news)Social proof (following crowded trades)Stress-induced reaction (panic buying or selling)In Munger’s language, this is the setup for “avoidable stupidity.”2. “Envy and FOMO” are silently driving modern portfoliosOne of Munger’s strongest warnings was about envy, not as emotion, but as a financial destroyer.In today’s market, envy doesn’t look like jealousy of a neighbour. It looks like:Chasing AI stocks after they’ve already rerated sharplyComparing portfolio performance with index benchmarks dailyAbandoning long-term positions because “others are making faster money”When liquidity is abundant in a narrow set of names, envy becomes structurally embedded in portfolio behaviour. Investors are no longer asking “Is this a good business?” but “Am I missing this move?”That shift is dangerous in a market where leadership is concentrated and reversals can be abrupt.3. The “Lollapalooza effect” is stronger than everMunger described the Lollapalooza effect as multiple biases reinforcing each other into extreme outcomes.Today’s version looks like this:Social media hype amplifies narrativesAlgorithmic flows reinforce momentumPassive inflows concentrate capital into large indicesRetail traders amplify short-term spikesThe result: prices detach from fundamentals faster, and corrections become sharper when sentiment shifts.This is why today’s rallies often feel effortless, but reversals feel violent.4. Overconfidence is rising with “easy market memories”A prolonged period of strong returns, especially in largecap tech, creates what Munger called “excessive self-regard”.Many investors now assume:“Buying dips always works”“Quality stocks never go down much”“The Fed will rescue markets eventually”But in a higher-rate regime, that assumption is no longer guaranteed. Valuation compression risk is real, and earnings must now do more of the heavy lifting.Confidence built in one regime often breaks in another.5. The biggest risk today: avoiding pain too aggressivelyOne of Munger’s less discussed but critical ideas is “pain-avoidance behavior”.In today’s context, it shows up as:Selling winners too early to “lock in gains”Avoiding fundamentally strong but volatile sectorsSitting excessively in cash due to fear of drawdownsIronically, in trying to avoid discomfort, investors often underperform the very market they are trying to survive.6. What works in today’s market: Munger-style disciplineIf we translate Munger’s philosophy into today’s environment, a few principles stand out:(1) Concentrate only when conviction is realNot based on stories, but on durable cash flows and long-term pricing power.(2) Expect volatility as a feature, not a flawEven high-quality companies will see sharp drawdowns in a rate-sensitive world.(3) Reduce decision frequencyMost mistakes come from over-trading emotional signals disguised as “information.”(4) Build a bias checklistBefore acting, ask:Am I reacting to news or value?Am I following the crowd?Would I make this decision in isolation?7. The current market lesson in one lineIf Munger were observing today’s markets, the warning would likely remain unchanged:“The biggest returns still come from avoiding obvious psychological errors, not from predicting the next move.”Bottom lineToday’s markets are not irrational, but they are emotionally amplified. Liquidity, technology, and information speed have not removed human bias; they have accelerated it.That is exactly the environment where Munger’s framework becomes most powerful. Because in the end, investing success is still less about knowing more, and more about misbehaving less.

Oil prices tumble 11% for biggest weekly drop in 7 weeks. Where is liquid gold headed from here?

It was a strong week for global markets as oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels in seven weeks, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation after reports suggested the United States, Israel and Iran were nearing a much-awaited peace deal agreement. Oil prices this weekBrent crude tumbled about 11% during the week, marking its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 9%, its biggest weekly drop in six weeks. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since mid-April. On Friday, Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 a barrel, down $1.66 or 1.8%. WTI crude futures closed at $87.36 a barrel, a decline of $1.54 or 1.7%.The three-month conflict involving the U.S. and Iran has repeatedly seen expectations of a potential resolution that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies pass. While both sides indicated that an agreement may be near, their descriptions of the proposed deal continued to differ.U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Iran to immediately reopen the strait. The closure of the vital waterway has pushed energy prices higher across global markets. This week, trading has remained highly volatile, with both Brent and WTI swinging by as much as $6 on changing signals surrounding the possibility of the strait reopening.Geopolitical tensions escalated on Thursday after fresh U.S. strikes targeted an Iranian military facility overnight, despite ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran.Iran's Revolutionary Guards later claimed responsibility for a strike on a U.S. airbase, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. The location of the base was not disclosed.Where is oil headed?Market analysts noted that even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months. Any damaged energy infrastructure may require an even longer period to return to full operation.Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could postpone stability in global oil markets until 2027. He said nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week could be affected by continued disruptions. Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil producer.Morgan Stanley described the oil market as being in "a race against time," saying the factors that have so far prevented a more pronounced rise in crude prices could begin to fade if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June.According to the brokerage, higher U.S. crude exports and softer demand from China have helped absorb part of the supply shock. However, it cautioned that an extended shutdown of the strait could tighten global oil supplies again if disruptions persist beyond the levels that the U.S. and China can comfortably offset.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Trump draws red lines on Iran deal

US President Donald Trump will only make a peace deal with Iran if it meets all of his conditions, a White House official told AFP on Friday, as questions swirled about the state of negotiations to end the war.The White House had indicated Trump was close to a decision on a potential deal, even as Tehran insisted there was still "no final agreement" on ending the Middle East conflict.Also read: To the Situation Room, now! With new message, Trump stirs Iran cauldron again An Iranian state media report also rebutted several key elements of Trump's characterization of the deal, with sources calling his remarks a "mixture of truth and lies."US sources had told AFP the deal was waiting on Trump's sign-off following weeks of halting negotiations over a conflict that has engulfed the Middle East and shaken the global economy. Trump attended a two-hour meeting in the White House Situation Room on Friday but did not reach a decision."President Trump will only make a deal that is good for America and satisfies his red lines," a White House official told AFP afterward. "Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon," the official added.Trump had announced the meeting in a lengthy social media post, reiterating long-held demands that Iran agree never to develop nuclear weapons and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei pushed back, telling state media that the Islamic republic "said goodbye to the language of 'must' 47 years ago." Exchanges of messages were continuing, he added, but "no final agreement has been reached yet."In a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to achieve a "dignified framework" to end the war, according to state news agency IRNA.In his post, Trump said Tehran would remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz and end its blockade of the waterway with "no tolls," while the US would lift its parallel blockade of Iranian ports. The two countries would also coordinate on removing and destroying Iran's enriched uranium, he said, adding that "no money will be exchanged, until further notice."Iran's Fars news agency, however, cited sources as saying Tehran was demanding "the immediate release of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets" before moving to the next phase of negotiations. On the toll-free reopening of Hormuz, the sources said "no such clause appears in the text of the agreement," while Trump's comment on destroying Iran's nuclear material "is fundamentally baseless."Also read: ‘Tehran said goodbye to “must” 47 years ago’: Iran rejects Trump’s claims of imminent dealBaqaei also told state TV there were currently "no negotiations" taking place on Iran's nuclear program, as Iran's top diplomat suggested the US was holding up a deal with its approach to the talks.'Telling the truth'? Ali, a resident of the city of Tonekabon north of Tehran, said that whatever the deal was, there would likely be more strife to come."Both sides are speaking in a way that keeps their supporters satisfied. It's not clear who is telling the truth," the 49-year-old said.Hopes of an agreement had risen on Thursday after US officials voiced optimism about the diplomatic progress.Energy markets have whipsawed this week as investors parse the chances of an agreement that could potentially resume normal shipping through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.Washington and Tehran have accused each other of violating the truce in and around the strait as recently as this week, with US strikes on the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas countered by retaliatory Iranian fire.Iranian state TV said Friday that 24 ships had transited the strait in the past 24 hours, in coordination with the Revolutionary Guards and the foreign ministry.But it warned that "ships from hostile countries face a severe response" from Iran's military.Lebanon fighting On the war's Lebanon front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday that his country's forces had pushed deeper inside Lebanon, while Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a series of drone attacks on military targets in northern Israel, including troop gatherings and barracks.It also said its forces were attacking Israeli troops trying to advance in the area of the medieval Beaufort fortress, near the city of Nabatieh.The attacks came as Israeli and Lebanese military delegations held security talks in Washington, which were called "productive" by Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's second-in-command.Israel kept up its heavy bombardment of southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese health ministry said a rescuer was among the 11 killed.A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was supposed to have taken effect on April 17, but has never been observed.Both sides accuse each other of violating it and justify their attacks by the other camp's alleged breaches.Lebanon was drawn into the war in early March when Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel over the killing of Iran's supreme leader in US-Israeli attacks, prompting Israeli strikes and a ground invasion.

RBI warns West Asia war may hit India growth

Mumbai: A prolonged West Asia conflict represents a key downside risk to India's economic outlook according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as it projected a lower real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.9% for 2026-27 in its annual report compared with 7.6% estimated for the previous financial year.The central bank said the impact of the conflict is likely to remain contained in the near term but warned that an escalation could derail India's otherwise positive growth trajectory."Going forward, India's growth outlook remains positive, though the West Asia conflict and the attendant risks of elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and weather-related disruptions could pose headwinds to growth and inflation in the short run," the Reserve Bank said.Also Read: Iran war - PSBs asked to stay preparedPositive Macro OutlookIt listed healthy corporate and bank balance sheets, government's continued thrust on capital expenditure and the implementation of trade agreements with key partners as positives to help sustain investment and growth momentum."Nevertheless, in a highly uncertain global environment, continuous assessment of the evolving developments is warranted to frame the appropriate policy response on an ongoing basis," the report said.131398139The central bank said that although portfolio flows exhibited a net outflow in 2025-26, strong buffers in the form of ample foreign exchange reserves and modest external debt liabilities continue to impart strength to the external sector, contributing to overall macroeconomic and financial stability.Adequate food grain stocks, sufficient reservoir levels and stable agricultural prospects despite possible El Nino conditions and above-normal summer temperature will keep inflation aligned to the target in 2026-27, according to the RBI. However, upside risks may emanate from a surge in global fuel and commodity prices amid geopolitical tensions, potential spillovers to input and wage costs and volatility in exchange rates.Also Read: India-US trade pact may be weeks away - US Ambassador to India Sergio GorThe central bank projected consumer price inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6%, with risks tilted to the upside, significantly higher than its revised estimate of 3.7% for the previous fiscal.Pressure on BondsDomestic bond yields could face upward pressure if the global monetary easing cycle stalls or reverses in response to persistent oil price shocks amid fragile conditions in West Asia, it said.Geopolitical risk has re-emerged as the dominant drag on global growth in 2026, according to the RBI. "In IMF's baseline scenario, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2026 (as against the earlier projection of 3.3% in January), while global merchandise and services trade volume is expected to decelerate to 2.8% in 2026. Further intensification of the conflict, its prolongation or widening geographical spread, if any, remain the key downside risks to the global economic outlook," the report said."However, the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, along with the liquidity injection measures by the Reserve Bank, is expected to contain the upward pressure on yields. Equity market dynamics would be conditioned by evolving geopolitical developments, global financial market volatility and foreign portfolio investment flows; a deterioration in risk sentiment alongside strengthening of the US dollar could trigger capital outflows," said the RBI's annual report. "At the same time, ongoing efforts to expand local currency settlement framework are expected to further advance rupee based cross-border transactions."

US stocks today: US stocks hits new closing highs on tech strength, Middle East deal hopes

Wall Street's main indexes hit record closing highs on ​Friday and posted weekly and monthly gains as Dell results drove tech shares higher, while investors awaited details on a potential U.S.-Iran deal. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he would make a final decision on the Iran deal on Friday. ‌Tehran earlier said it ⁠was ⁠looking for action, not words, when it came to an agreement.Dell surged after raising its full-year profit and revenue forecasts on Thursday. The tech ​sector climbed, fueled by gains in chip stocks.Peers Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Super Micro Computer gained. Microsoft climbed.The software services index ​also advanced.Earlier in the session, all three indexes hit intraday record highs, cruising on renewed optimism around AI and strong earnings growth, despite concerns about the Iran war's impact on inflation and the global economy.According to preliminary data, the ​S&P 500 gained 16.11 points, or 0.21%, to end at 7,579.74 points, while ⁠the Nasdaq ‌Composite gained 53.74 points, or 0.20%, to 26,971.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 363.48 ​points, or 0.72%, ​to 51,032.45.EARNINGS-DRIVEN RALLY"There's definitely euphoric sentiment in the market around AI. The rally has really ⁠been driven by earnings," said Ohsung Kwon, chief equity strategist at Wells ​Fargo.He suggested investors buy and hold AI stocks, then earn extra income by ​selling call options at prices much higher than the current stock price.Melissa Brown, head of investment decision research at SimCorp, said over the past few weeks volume has gone up, which suggests more people are coming into the market.The S&P 500 was on track for a ninth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak since December 2023.The S&P 500 communications services sector dropped, as Alphabet declined. Consumer staples shares were weak with heavyweights Costco and Walmart both ‌down.The S&P automaker index dropped after reports the Trump administration wants North American-built vehicles to have 82% regional content to qualify for preferential treatment under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.Shares of General Motors and ​U.S.-listed shares of Stellantis ​fell. U.S. economic data on ⁠Thursday showed inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, while GDP for the first quarter was revised lower to a 1.6% annual rise. The Fed's Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid warned the energy shock may not ​be temporary. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said a persistent rise in inflation might require tighter monetary policy.Money markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for the rest of the year, with expectations of a 25-basis-point hike in December. Among other movers, Gap shares tumbled after the apparel retailer cut its annual sales forecast, while American Eagle Outfitters dropped after keeping its annual comparable sales forecast unchanged.

With new message, Trump stirs Iran pot again

US President Donald Trump said on May 29 that Iran must commit to never developing a nuclear weapon and ensure unrestricted shipping movement through the Strait of Hormuz, while indicating that discussions involving Tehran, Washington and international agencies were moving towards a possible understanding on key security issues in the region.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz should remain open without any restrictions or tolls for commercial shipping traffic in both directions. He also claimed that naval restrictions imposed earlier in the region would be lifted, allowing stranded ships to resume movement.Trump further said any water mines present in the strategic waterway would be removed or destroyed in coordination with Iranian authorities. He claimed that US naval operations had already neutralised several mines in the region.Also read | US inflation rises to 3.8% in April, highest level in nearly 3 years"The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to," Trump's post read."I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" he signed off.The remarks come amid heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia and renewed global concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme, maritime security and crude oil supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints, handling a significant share of global crude and LNG shipments.Any disruption in the waterway has historically triggered volatility in international oil markets and raised concerns among major energy-importing nations, including India.Also read | US goods trade deficit narrows in April on strong exportsTrump also referred to Iran’s enriched nuclear material, saying the stockpile buried underground after a previous US B-2 bomber strike would be excavated and destroyed under international supervision. He said the process would involve close coordination between the United States, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).According to Trump, no financial exchange would take place as part of the proposed arrangement until further decisions are taken. He added that several other issues had also been agreed upon, though he did not elaborate on details.The former US president said he would meet officials in the Situation Room before taking a final decision on the matter.The comments assume significance as tensions between the US and Iran have remained elevated over Tehran’s nuclear activities, sanctions and regional security concerns. Recent developments in the Middle East have also intensified fears of escalation that could impact global trade routes and energy prices.International crude oil markets have remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts have warned that any prolonged uncertainty in the region could affect fuel prices, shipping costs and supply chains globally.India, which imports a majority of its crude oil requirements, closely monitors developments in the Gulf region as volatility in oil prices has direct implications for inflation, fuel costs and the country’s trade balance.

RBI expected to hike repo rate by year-end

The Reserve Bank of India will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in June, according ​to most economists in a Reuters poll, although ​a majority now expect at least one increase by year-end due to risks from high oil ​prices and pressure on the rupee from weak capital inflows.India's still-benign inflation at 3.48% in April, below the RBI's 4% medium-term target for over a year, gives the central bank scant reason to act urgently.But, with crude oil prices hovering about 30% over levels seen before the U.S.-Israeli war ‌with Iran, the rupee ⁠down roughly ⁠6% for the year and wholesale inflation accelerating sharply in April, a growing number of economists now expect policy action may eventually be needed to limit ​the pass-through to inflation.Nearly 80% of economists, 44 of 56, in the May 22-29 Reuters poll expected the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the ​repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5.Also Read: Repo rate hike not on the cards, for now, says Ram Singh, external member of MPCAmong other respondents, 11 forecast a 25-basis-point hike and one expected a bigger 50-basis-point increase. In an April poll only one respondent predicted a June rate lift."With growth facing downside risks while inflation faces strong upside ​pressures, we expect the RBI to hold rates steady in June... as supply ⁠shocks perceived as ‌temporary might not warrant an interest rate action immediately," said Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI ​Primary Dealer."Interest rates are ​not a good tool to counter large supply shocks. Also, I do not think the RBI ⁠MPC will increase rates to defend the rupee since it is beyond the ​remit of the MPC and precedents provide evidence it is not an effective antidote to ​depreciation."But not everyone agrees the RBI should keep rates steady.Also Read: RBI warns prolonged West Asia conflict could hit India’s economy"Without any hikes the financial market perception that domestic policies remain unaligned with tight global financial conditions will continue to grow, inflating risks of repeated or renewed speculative pressures on the exchange rate," said ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim.A shift to a "hawkish" policy stance would be prudent, he added.The central bank has already spent billions of dollars to slow the rupee's decline as a global risk-off environment accelerates foreign outflows from India.Meanwhile, other Asian central banks have ‌already begun tightening policy to shore up their currencies. Bank Indonesia delivered a surprise 50-basis-point rate hike last week, and the Philippines' central bank raised rates 25 basis points in April.India, Indonesia and the Philippines ​are especially exposed ​as higher oil import costs coincide ⁠with capital outflows driven by investors seeking safer assets.Still, when asked if the RBI should consider using monetary policy alongside FX intervention to cushion the rupee's fall, a majority of economists, 14 of 18, said no.Poll medians showed the central bank would raise ​interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and again in the third quarter of 2027. Most economists expected at least one 25-basis-point rate increase by end-2026 compared with expectations in the April survey for no rise through 2027.Mizuho's head of macro research Vishnu Varathan said the RBI hiking rates was "a matter of when not if", and argued moving "sooner rather than later at the August meeting makes sense and mitigates unnecessary pain".

IPL: BCCI bans smart sunglasses in PMOA

New Delhi: The BCCI's Anti-Corruption Unit has barred the usage of smart sunglasses by players and match officials in the ongoing IPL, citing its advanced communication features which allow live streaming and video calling through mobile data or Wi-Fi networks.In an advisory to the league's franchises, the BCCI ACSU has stated that it has been noticed that some companies are marketing and selling smart sunglasses to players and support staff."Kindly note that these devices are equipped with advanced communication features, including live streaming, sending and receiving text messages, as well as audio and video calling capabilities through mobile data or Wi-Fi networks," the Board said."Accordingly, under the PMOA Minimum Standards, such goggles/glasses are classified both as an 'Audio/Video Recording Device' and a 'Communication Device'."It is hereby notified that the possession and/or use of 'Smart Goggles' is strictly prohibited within the Players and Match Officials Area (PMOA)," it added.Players are prohibited from using communication devices in the designated PMOAs and in the ongoing edition Rajasthan Royals Romi Bhinder copped a Rs one lakh fine and a warning after being caught on camera using a phone in the team dugout during a match.In its latest advisory, the Board urged players and officials to deposit smart sunglasses as well before entering the PMOA and warned of action in case of non-compliance."All players and support staff are directed to deposit such devices with the Security Liaison Officer (SLO), along with their mobile phones and smartwatches, upon entering the PMOA on match days," the Board said."Failure to deposit such devices shall be deemed a breach of the PMOA protocols and may result in penalties under the PMOA Minimum Standards for IPL 2026," it added.The IPL this year has been rocked by incidents of code of conduct violations, prompting the BCCI to earlier issue a strict protocol which banned late night outings for players without permission from the security team.The Board has also disallowed guests in the players and support staff's hotel rooms due to security concerns and fears of honey-trapping.

A rain forecast hints at more pain for India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday retained its forecast for below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, with the weather office warning that the El Nino weather pattern is likely to develop during June and July.The weather watchdog said monsoon rainfall this year is expected to be at 90% of the long-term average, while rainfall in June is likely to be around 92% of the long-term average.The IMD said neutral ENSO conditions over the equatorial Pacific are now transitioning towards El Nino, with a 92% probability of El Nino conditions prevailing during the 2026 monsoon season. Most global climate models indicate that the weather pattern is likely to strengthen as the season progresses.Also Read: Southwest monsoon further advances in Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Bay of Bengal, says IMD According to the IMD’s forecast, June is expected to witness weak El Nino conditions, while July and August could see weak-to-moderate El Nino conditions. By September, the weather office expects El Nino to intensify into a moderate-to-strong phase.The weather office also warned that the monsoon core zone, which includes most rain-fed agricultural regions across central and northwest India, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall of less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). Northwest India is expected to receive rainfall below 92% of the LPA, while central India and the southern peninsula are also likely to see below-normal rains. Only northeast India is forecast to receive normal rainfall, in the range of 94-106% of the long-period average.Also Read: El Nino, Strait of Hormuz risks may fuel fresh global food inflation surge, says Citi Research Report The IMD’s probability forecast showed that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country during the June-September monsoon season. However, some areas in northwest India, parts of the southern peninsula, adjoining east-central India and isolated pockets in the northeast could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.The forecast comes at a time when concerns are rising over the impact of weaker rains on farm output and food prices, further adding to already rising inflation in India amid the ongoing Iran-US war.El Nino conditions, which are associated with lower rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are expected to emerge in the coming weeks, the weather office said. The phenomenon typically leads to hotter temperatures and uneven rainfall distribution across several parts of the country.A below-normal monsoon could put pressure on agricultural production and may increase risks of higher food inflation later in the year. India’s farm sector remains heavily dependent on seasonal rains as a large part of cultivated land still lacks irrigation coverage.The monsoon usually begins over Kerala in June and accounts for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall. The June-September rainy season is critical for kharif crop sowing, reservoir replenishment and rural consumption.