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Cameroon: Key Message Update Poor harvest prospects will keep households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in conflict areas, May - September 2026
Country: Cameroon Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September across Logone-et-Chari, Mayo-Sava, and Mayo-Tsanaga divisions in the Far North. Ongoing insecurity and recurrent Islamist violence continue to disrupt household participation in main season agricultural land preparation. Income from off-season crop sales and agricultural labor is expected to remain below average and, combined with rising lean season food prices, will further erode household purchasing capacity and limit access to staple foods. The number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected to increase during the June-August lean season, with a small proportion of households, particularly those with severely depleted coping capacity, likely to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Seasonal flooding beginning in July will likely exacerbate displacement through at least October, further isolating conflict-affected households from food and income sources. Given below-average harvest prospects, gains from the main season are likely to be limited, preventing meaningful improvements in food security outcomes. In the Northwest and Southwest regions, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected through June, with additional households deteriorating to Emergency (IPC Phase 4), followed by some improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September. The June green harvest of maize, beans, potatoes, legumes, and vegetables will provide relief from lean season pressures for cultivating households, but many will remain reliant on market purchases at above-average prices through June. Beginning in July, improved access to own production and crop income is expected to strengthen household food consumption and support a transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across most areas. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will likely persist in more insecure and remote divisions โ such as Ndian, Lebialem, Menchum, Momo, and Bui โ where households will continue reducing essential non-food expenditures and diet quality and quantity due to market and production disruptions. A small proportion of the worstโaffected households โ particularly those with little or no harvests and exhausted coping capacity โ are expected to remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In Yaoundรฉ and Douala, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September, as above-average food prices continue to erode purchasing power, particularly among poor urban and displaced households with limited or disrupted livelihoods. Food prices are projected to remain significantly above the five-year average in urban markets due to reduced inflows from conflict-affected areas, strong urban demand, and elevated transport costs. Poor urban households are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as prices peak during May and June ahead of the harvest. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in Mbere (Adamawa), Kadey, and Lom et Djerem divisions (East) through September. The large population of refugees from the Central African Republic continues to place pressure on food prices, employment opportunities, and natural resources, constraining income for both host and refugee households. Many households will struggle to meet essential non-food needs and will likely rely on negative coping strategies, including reducing non-food expenditures and reducing meal frequency and number. While the July-September harvest will improve household food availability and consumption, area-level outcomes are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Poor households โ particularly refugees with limited livelihoods and exhausted coping capacities โ are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Countrywide food assistance needs are projected to peak annually in May-June, coinciding with the end of the southern lean season and the onset of the northern lean season. In the south, needs are expected to ease with the July-September main harvest, though they will remain elevated due to the ongoing impacts of conflict. In the north, needs will continue to rise until the September harvest, driven by the combined effects of conflict and flooding on livelihoods. Across the country, however, the delivery of humanitarian food assistance is expected to remain critically constrained by severe funding gaps. In April, WFP warned that severe funding shortfalls could disrupt up to 90 percent of planned deliveries from May onward. Such disruptions will have serious consequences for critical lean-season food assistance for refugees and internally displaced persons in the northern zone. Fuel, fertilizer, and food prices in Cameroon have remained relatively stable despite the Middle East conflict, owing to the countryโs limited reliance on Gulf-region imports, substantial fuel subsidies, and the availability of older fertilizer stocks. According to FEWS NET price monitoring, the slight increases in fertilizer costs observed during this period have been driven mainly by rising shipping expenses, speculative trading behavior and seasonally higher demand at the start of the cropping season. Nonetheless, Cameroon remains vulnerable to global spillovers. Elevated international fuel prices, tightening supply conditions, and increasing shipping costs are expected to place upward pressure on import-dependent goods, amplifying inflation risks. In addition, smuggled fuel from Nigeria โ used in areas bordering Nigeria, specifically the Far North, Northwest, and Southwest โ has risen by 20-25 percent during this period, reflecting increased pump prices in Nigeria.