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Air Force to ferry NEET papers for June 21 retest as NTA tightens exam security

Air Force to ferry NEET papers for June 21 retest as NTA tightens exam security

How US immigration policy change may 'trouble' Apple, Google, OpenAI & other tech giants

A significant shift is underway in the AI race, with top Chinese scientists returning home from the US. Tightening American immigration policies and China's substantial investments in research and incentives are luring elite talent back. This exodus brings valuable AI expertise, including the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence, to Chinese tech giants, potentially reshaping the global AI landscape.

India takes big moves to attract foreign investments in bonds: How will this impact stock market?

As India sees incessant FII selloff so far this year, the government and RBI announced a slew of measures to ease foreign investments in government securities, with analysts suggesting that these may provide some short-term support for Dalal Street.India scrapped the long-term capital gains tax on investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in government securities through an ordinance issued on Friday. The government has now exempted FIIs from tax on any interest income from government securities, as well as capital gains arising from their sale, exchange or transfer, according to an official gazette. Separately, while announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also unveiled a series of measures to boost FPI investments, including expanding the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to cover new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year government bonds.Limits on investments by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments without Sebi registration are being raised, allowing them to invest larger amounts without regulatory registration. The facility is also proposed to be extended to all Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), bringing them on par with NRIs and OCIs. This came as the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%What does this mean for Indian stock market?The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without Sebi registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, which is expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows, said Arun Poddar, CEO of Choice International.He highlighted that equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. “This move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period,” he said.The government's move to exempt Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities is “highly positive” for the capital markets, said Sumit Singhania, Head of Research at Bajaj Broking. “This fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments,” he added.The policy is distinctly positive for bond markets and well-capitalized Banks and NBFCs, which benefit from targeted hedging subsidies and systemic stability, according to Archit Doshi, Senior Vice President at PL (Prabhudas Lilladher) AMC. “Conversely, one should be underweight rate-sensitive sectors, which remain highly vulnerable to margin compression, higher inflation expectations, and the threat of the RBI reaching its tightening tipping point,” he said.Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO of Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund, also said that the announcements aimed at enabling more dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. “The concessional swap facility should help stabilise short end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term,” he said.For equities and debt markets, the measures to attract FII inflows are supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, they signal a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure, said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP of Research at Religare Broking.Sachin Bajaj, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, also said that the initiatives are expected to support capital inflows, deepen domestic bond markets, and provide support to the Indian rupee over the short to medium term.RBI’s hawkish tone and the Indian stock marketWhile the measures taken to attract FII inflows in the debt market will likely provide short-term support for Dalal Street, analysts advised caution over the RBI’s hawkish policy stance. While the RBI maintained its policy repo rate as per expectations, the tone was much more cautious than in previous meetings.Sachin Bajaj highlighted that the policy emphasised preserving macroeconomic stability amid the prevailing global macroeconomic environment. “We believe there are significant risks to inflation in the coming months due to the pass-through of higher commodity prices to consumers and elevated food prices resulting from a below-normal monsoon. Going forward, there is a risk of an upward revision in inflation projections, and given the evolving global backdrop, we believe the RBI is likely to maintain a prudent, data-dependent approach. Future policy actions will be contingent on evolving growth-inflation dynamics and global developments,” he added.Also read: Explained: Sebi's Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue inflation allegations against Rajesh ExportsWhile hawkish rhetoric without an accompanying rate hike provides a temporary respite for equity markets, it does not constitute an unequivocal endorsement of investment, particularly in highly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automotive, and consumer discretionary goods, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors.“Should inflation necessitate a rate increase later this year, these sectors are likely to experience pressure on both margins and demand. For investors, the current strategy emphasises capital preservation by focusing on high-quality equities with strong pricing power. This cautious approach is designed to navigate the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties until conditions stabilise,” the analyst added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

India tightens the belt to save its fiscal target

The ₹ warning: Six actions for biz leaders

The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).

GCCs tighten grip on India’s talent market

GTRI makes a case against new India tariffs

India needs to challenge the legal basis of a proposed US tariff action that seeks to impose an additional 12.5% duty on imports from the country under a Section 301 investigation, trade policy think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said on June 3.The recommendation comes after the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) proposed fresh duties on imports from 54 economies following a probe into the enforcement of restrictions on goods linked to forced labour.GTRI said that the investigation stretches the intended scope of Section 301, a trade enforcement mechanism traditionally used to address barriers affecting market access for American businesses in foreign jurisdictions, PTI reported.The current action is focused instead on whether countries regulate imports originating from third nations where forced labour concerns may exist, the think tank observed.Also read | Iran war puts Malhotra & Co in razor-edge policy bindThe proposed tariff rate of 12.5% for India and several other economies is also higher than the tariff ceiling committed by the US under multilateral trade rules, the think tank said.According to GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, India should maintain that Washington is attempting to extend its domestic import-control framework beyond its borders through unilateral trade measures.He said such an approach falls outside the mandate of Section 301 and raises broader concerns regarding the use of trade policy to influence regulatory practices in other countries.The think tank further noted that concerns surrounding forced labour are often confined to specific products or sectors rather than entire economies. It argued that imposing country-wide tariffs may not be an appropriate response when targeted measures could address the underlying issue more effectively.Also read | CBDT tells tax officers to tighten scrutiny of unexplained income, assetsGTRI also viewed the proposed action in the context of ongoing trade negotiations between India and the United States, suggesting that the move could increase pressure on New Delhi as both countries work toward a bilateral trade agreement. It cautioned that India may face additional investigations under Section 301 in areas such as industrial overcapacity.The USTR initiated two separate Section 301 investigations in March this year covering 60 economies. One inquiry examined issues related to forced labour, while the second focused on concerns over excess manufacturing capacity.Following the conclusion of the forced labour investigation, the US has proposed additional duties on imports from 54 economies. Under the plan, imports from countries including Canada, Ecuador, Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan and the European Union would face a 10% tariff. A higher duty of 12.5% has been proposed for 48 economies, including India and China.The proposal has not yet been finalised and is currently open for public consultation. Stakeholders have until June 22 to request participation in hearings and submit testimony summaries, while written submissions can be filed until July 6. Public hearings are scheduled for July 7.A final determination is expected in the coming weeks and could be announced before the expiry of the temporary Section 122 tariff measures on July 24. If approved, the additional duties may come into force shortly thereafter.The investigation does not allege the use of forced labour in India's export production. Instead, it examines whether India has adequate restrictions on imports sourced from third countries where forced labour concerns may arise.Inputs from PTI

Khan Sir Institute Attack Caught On Camera: CCTV Captures Stone-Pelting, Vandalism By Mob In Patna

CCTV visuals of the attack on Khan Sir’s coaching institute showed stone-pelting and vandalism as police identified several suspects and tightened security.

Rules tightened for foreigners extending stay

Foreign nationals in India on a 180-day visa must now register before their visa expires, a shift from the previous 14-day grace period. New rules also mandate that extensions for stays exceeding 180 days are strictly for emergent situations, with no single extension permitted beyond the initial 180-day limit. These changes were announced by the MHA.

India's CPI inflation expected to rise to 4.8%

New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."

Countries tighten travel rules as Ebola risk rises

Commercial LPG Cylinder cost up by Rs 42

New Delhi: The price of 19-kg commercial LPG cylinders has been increased from June 1, raising input costs for hotels, restaurants and other commercial establishments, while domestic cooking gas rates have been left unchanged, according to industry sources.In Delhi, the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been raised by Rs 42 to Rs 3,113.50. In Kolkata, the increase is steeper at Rs 53.50, taking the retail price to Rs 3,255.50.The price revision comes amid heightened efforts by the government and oil marketing companies (OMCs) to strengthen fuel security and ensure uninterrupted availability of petroleum products across the country.Also read | Refiners adjust to new crude mix as Hormuz crisis tightens supplyIndustry sources said the price of 5-kg Free Trade LPG (FTL) cylinders has also been increased by Rs 11. Following the revision, a 5-kg FTL cylinder will cost Rs 821.50 in Delhi. The revised rates came into effect on June 1.There has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders, providing relief to household consumers at a time when global energy markets continue to remain volatile.The latest revision follows the government's assurance that adequate stocks of petroleum products are available and that there is no shortage of LPG, petrol or diesel in the country.Speaking at an inter-ministerial briefing on Friday, Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said the government is working to bolster energy security through strategic reserves and enhanced inventory management.She said OMCs have been advised to maintain a minimum LPG reserve equivalent to 30 days of consumption and that efforts are underway to strengthen crude oil reserves as well.Also read | India cuts export duties on petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuelAccording to Sharma, all refineries are operating at optimum levels and domestic LPG production has reached record highs. She said inventories of key fuels remain comfortable and no instances of LPG distributors running dry have been reported.At the same time, authorities have observed unusual spikes in fuel sales in several regions. While part of the increase is attributed to seasonal agricultural demand, bulk purchases have also contributed to higher offtake.Government data showed overall fuel sales growth exceeding 30%, with 14 districts recording more than 100% growth in petrol sales. In contrast, six districts witnessed a decline of about 38% in sales by OMCs.To prevent diversion and hoarding, enforcement agencies have intensified inspections. Over the past four days, around 6,500 raids were conducted involving LPG distribution networks, resulting in multiple FIRs and arrests. Separate inspections at retail fuel outlets led to the seizure of significant quantities of petrol and diesel, along with legal action against violators.Sharma said domestic refineries are currently producing around 50-52 thousand metric tonnes of LPG per day against demand of about 72 thousand metric tonnes, with the balance being met through imports. She added that the backlog in LPG supplies has narrowed to around 4.5 days, indicating an improvement in distribution efficiency.The increase in commercial LPG prices is expected to have a bearing on operating costs for eateries, catering businesses and other commercial users, even as household consumers remain insulated from the latest revision.

Canada tightens rules for digital nomads

Canada has introduced stricter documentation requirements for digital nomads entering the country under a work-permit exemption, requiring applicants to provide evidence that their income is earned entirely outside Canada and that they work remotely for foreign employers or overseas clients.Under Canadian immigration rules, digital nomads, remote workers employed by foreign companies or self-employed individuals serving overseas clients—can stay in Canada as visitors and work remotely for up to six months without obtaining a work permit, according to a report by CIC News. This exemption applies because they are not considered to be entering the Canadian labour market. Previously, immigration officers were instructed that digital nomads did not need to provide additional documentation beyond what is generally required from visitors. The updated guidance now directs officers to verify that applicants earn their income outside Canada and do not provide services to Canadian employers or clients. More clarity for immigration officers The revised instructions also provide additional guidance for officers assessing digital nomad applications. According to the updated rules, as cited by CIC News, digital nomads who wish to remain in Canada beyond their initially authorized stay should apply for a visitor record. Applicants must also satisfy immigration officers that they do not intend to enter the Canadian labour market during their stay. The guidance further states that accompanying family members must submit separate applications for their own temporary resident status. General entry requirements remain Canada's immigration department also clarified that digital nomads must continue to meet all standard requirements applicable to temporary residents. This includes demonstrating sufficient financial resources to support themselves during their stay, convincing officers that they will leave Canada when their authorized stay ends, and meeting admissibility requirements related to health and criminality. According to the CIC News report, the updated instructions also state that a digital nomad already in Canada may work for a Canadian employer without obtaining a work permit only if they qualify under a separate work-permit exemption set out in Canada's immigration regulations. The changes provide immigration officers with more detailed criteria for assessing digital nomad entries while reinforcing the requirement that remote workers benefiting from the exemption remain outside Canada's domestic labour market.

Oil prices tumble 11% for biggest weekly drop in 7 weeks. Where is liquid gold headed from here?

It was a strong week for global markets as oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels in seven weeks, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation after reports suggested the United States, Israel and Iran were nearing a much-awaited peace deal agreement. Oil prices this weekBrent crude tumbled about 11% during the week, marking its steepest weekly decline in seven weeks, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell more than 9%, its biggest weekly drop in six weeks. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since mid-April. On Friday, Brent crude futures for July, which expired on Friday, settled at $92.05 a barrel, down $1.66 or 1.8%. WTI crude futures closed at $87.36 a barrel, a decline of $1.54 or 1.7%.The three-month conflict involving the U.S. and Iran has repeatedly seen expectations of a potential resolution that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies pass. While both sides indicated that an agreement may be near, their descriptions of the proposed deal continued to differ.U.S. President Donald Trump once again urged Iran to immediately reopen the strait. The closure of the vital waterway has pushed energy prices higher across global markets. This week, trading has remained highly volatile, with both Brent and WTI swinging by as much as $6 on changing signals surrounding the possibility of the strait reopening.Geopolitical tensions escalated on Thursday after fresh U.S. strikes targeted an Iranian military facility overnight, despite ongoing diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran.Iran's Revolutionary Guards later claimed responsibility for a strike on a U.S. airbase, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency. The location of the base was not disclosed.Where is oil headed?Market analysts noted that even if a ceasefire is agreed upon, restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz could take several months. Any damaged energy infrastructure may require an even longer period to return to full operation.Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could postpone stability in global oil markets until 2027. He said nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week could be affected by continued disruptions. Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil producer.Morgan Stanley described the oil market as being in "a race against time," saying the factors that have so far prevented a more pronounced rise in crude prices could begin to fade if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June.According to the brokerage, higher U.S. crude exports and softer demand from China have helped absorb part of the supply shock. However, it cautioned that an extended shutdown of the strait could tighten global oil supplies again if disruptions persist beyond the levels that the U.S. and China can comfortably offset.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Gold demand drops 70% after sharp duty hike in India

Kolkata: Gold demand in India slipped about 70% since the government more than doubled import duty from earlier this month, adding to already tepid consumer sentiment amid higher fuel and food prices due to the Iran war.Demand fell to about 7.5 tonnes in the fortnight ended May 27 from around 25 tonnes a year earlier, according to industry estimates. The government increased the import duty on gold to 15% from 6% with effect from May 13."Reports trickling in from jewellers across India shows that there has been a 70% drop in demand after the import duty was hiked," said Surendra Mehta, national secretary of India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA). "The unorganised trade, which comprises 65% of the gold trade, has been worst hit due to the duty hike."Also Read: India's gold import problem may already have a solution at homeJoy Alukkas, chairman of gold jewellery retail chain Joyalukkas, attributed the demand weakness to several factors. "It is not only the high import duty that has dented the demand," he said. "The Prime Minister's appeal to stay away from gold for a year has also impacted consumer sentiment in a big way. At Joyalukkas, we are seeing demand dropping by more than 35%. We are not sure whether it will slip further." 131398034Mehta at IBJA said apart from the gold import duty hike, higher petrol and diesel prices and food items are also weighing on consumer sentiment "as they are not willing to spend on gold now".The effective tax burden on gold, including goods and services tax (GST), has risen to 18.45% from 9.18% after the duty increase. The government raised duties against the backdrop of a weak rupee, elevated crude prices, and geopolitical tensions, while also tightening import rules and capping duty-free imports under the Advance Authorisation Scheme."At present, gold is not in the priority list of consumers," said Mehta. "Moreover, it is now the period of Adhik Maas, when Hindus generally avoid buying anything precious. What is more surprising is that the investment demand for gold has slowed down."Also Read: Kriti Sanon joins GIVA as investor and brand ambassadorThe slump may weigh on investment demand in the second quarter of 2026 after a strong start to the year, said jewellers.Gold Exchange Schemes Take OffIndia's bar and coin demand rose 34% from a year ago to 62.3 tonnes in the March quarter.India consumes about 800-850 tonnes of gold annually. On Friday, gold of 999 purity traded at about ₹1.57 lakh per 10 grams, excluding GST, in Mumbai's spot market.Volumes are weak in south India, traditionally one of the country's biggest gold-consuming markets. Some consumers are also shifting towards lighter and lower-carat jewellery while sales of old gold have risen sharply, according to jewellers. "Consumers are not stretching their budgets," said B Govindan, chairman of Bhima Jewellery. "They are buying whatever fits their budget and therefore choosing lightweight and lower-carat jewellery. On the contrary, there is a huge rush among consumers to sell old gold and take cash back home."Industry executives noted the varied impact of the import duty increase across segments, with many retailers indicating a pause in procurement. "Large chain stores saw a brief period of panic buying after the announcement, driven by expectations of further measures, and while they expect a slowdown in sales, they remain relatively resilient given inventory buffers and continued support from bridal demand," said Kavita Chacko, research head at the World Gold Council (WGC).Mid-sized and regional jewellers are continuing to see demand from affluent customers but are expected to rely more on gold exchange programmes and tighter inventory cycles going forward, she said. "Smaller retailers appear the most vulnerable: already stretched by persistently high prices, they now face added pressure from sales volumes and profit margins," said Chacko.

RBI expected to hike repo rate by year-end

The Reserve Bank of India will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in June, according ​to most economists in a Reuters poll, although ​a majority now expect at least one increase by year-end due to risks from high oil ​prices and pressure on the rupee from weak capital inflows.India's still-benign inflation at 3.48% in April, below the RBI's 4% medium-term target for over a year, gives the central bank scant reason to act urgently.But, with crude oil prices hovering about 30% over levels seen before the U.S.-Israeli war ‌with Iran, the rupee ⁠down roughly ⁠6% for the year and wholesale inflation accelerating sharply in April, a growing number of economists now expect policy action may eventually be needed to limit ​the pass-through to inflation.Nearly 80% of economists, 44 of 56, in the May 22-29 Reuters poll expected the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the ​repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on June 5.Also Read: Repo rate hike not on the cards, for now, says Ram Singh, external member of MPCAmong other respondents, 11 forecast a 25-basis-point hike and one expected a bigger 50-basis-point increase. In an April poll only one respondent predicted a June rate lift."With growth facing downside risks while inflation faces strong upside ​pressures, we expect the RBI to hold rates steady in June... as supply ⁠shocks perceived as ‌temporary might not warrant an interest rate action immediately," said Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI ​Primary Dealer."Interest rates are ​not a good tool to counter large supply shocks. Also, I do not think the RBI ⁠MPC will increase rates to defend the rupee since it is beyond the ​remit of the MPC and precedents provide evidence it is not an effective antidote to ​depreciation."But not everyone agrees the RBI should keep rates steady.Also Read: RBI warns prolonged West Asia conflict could hit India’s economy"Without any hikes the financial market perception that domestic policies remain unaligned with tight global financial conditions will continue to grow, inflating risks of repeated or renewed speculative pressures on the exchange rate," said ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim.A shift to a "hawkish" policy stance would be prudent, he added.The central bank has already spent billions of dollars to slow the rupee's decline as a global risk-off environment accelerates foreign outflows from India.Meanwhile, other Asian central banks have ‌already begun tightening policy to shore up their currencies. Bank Indonesia delivered a surprise 50-basis-point rate hike last week, and the Philippines' central bank raised rates 25 basis points in April.India, Indonesia and the Philippines ​are especially exposed ​as higher oil import costs coincide ⁠with capital outflows driven by investors seeking safer assets.Still, when asked if the RBI should consider using monetary policy alongside FX intervention to cushion the rupee's fall, a majority of economists, 14 of 18, said no.Poll medians showed the central bank would raise ​interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and again in the third quarter of 2027. Most economists expected at least one 25-basis-point rate increase by end-2026 compared with expectations in the April survey for no rise through 2027.Mizuho's head of macro research Vishnu Varathan said the RBI hiking rates was "a matter of when not if", and argued moving "sooner rather than later at the August meeting makes sense and mitigates unnecessary pain".

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