뉴스

India Reports GDP Growth Of 7.8% In Q4 On Services Sector Output Boost

India reports GDP growth of 7.8% in Q4 on services sector output boost

India's CPI inflation expected to rise to 4.8%

New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."

Industrial output growth lowers to 4.9% in April

This is the first data released after the revision in base year to 2022-23

Russia imposes aviation fuel export ban until November 30

Russia has banned aviation fuel exports until November 30 to ensure domestic supply stability amid falling refinery output. This move follows Ukrainian attacks on energy facilities, which have reduced Russia's fuel processing capacity. The restriction aims to prevent shortages and maintain domestic market equilibrium.

Hormuz crisis fallout: How Indian refiners are adjusting to new crude oil mix to maximise output

The ongoing geopolitical turmoil has affected supplies from several key oil-producing regions that traditionally cater to India, requiring refiners to process crude varieties that were not part of their usual feedstock mix.

Asia factory output up on Iran war fears

A rain forecast hints at more pain for India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday retained its forecast for below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026, with the weather office warning that the El Nino weather pattern is likely to develop during June and July.The weather watchdog said monsoon rainfall this year is expected to be at 90% of the long-term average, while rainfall in June is likely to be around 92% of the long-term average.The IMD said neutral ENSO conditions over the equatorial Pacific are now transitioning towards El Nino, with a 92% probability of El Nino conditions prevailing during the 2026 monsoon season. Most global climate models indicate that the weather pattern is likely to strengthen as the season progresses.Also Read: Southwest monsoon further advances in Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Bay of Bengal, says IMD According to the IMD’s forecast, June is expected to witness weak El Nino conditions, while July and August could see weak-to-moderate El Nino conditions. By September, the weather office expects El Nino to intensify into a moderate-to-strong phase.The weather office also warned that the monsoon core zone, which includes most rain-fed agricultural regions across central and northwest India, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall of less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA). Northwest India is expected to receive rainfall below 92% of the LPA, while central India and the southern peninsula are also likely to see below-normal rains. Only northeast India is forecast to receive normal rainfall, in the range of 94-106% of the long-period average.Also Read: El Nino, Strait of Hormuz risks may fuel fresh global food inflation surge, says Citi Research Report The IMD’s probability forecast showed that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country during the June-September monsoon season. However, some areas in northwest India, parts of the southern peninsula, adjoining east-central India and isolated pockets in the northeast could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.The forecast comes at a time when concerns are rising over the impact of weaker rains on farm output and food prices, further adding to already rising inflation in India amid the ongoing Iran-US war.El Nino conditions, which are associated with lower rainfall in the Indian subcontinent, are expected to emerge in the coming weeks, the weather office said. The phenomenon typically leads to hotter temperatures and uneven rainfall distribution across several parts of the country.A below-normal monsoon could put pressure on agricultural production and may increase risks of higher food inflation later in the year. India’s farm sector remains heavily dependent on seasonal rains as a large part of cultivated land still lacks irrigation coverage.The monsoon usually begins over Kerala in June and accounts for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall. The June-September rainy season is critical for kharif crop sowing, reservoir replenishment and rural consumption.

Inside the new IIP index with new base year

India is undertaking the revision of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and plans to release the new series on June 1, 2026, marking the tenth revision of base year. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has broadened the scope of the index to include 120 new item groups and enhance the granularity by providing separate indices for numerous sectors.The base year of IIP is being shifted to 2022-23 from 2011-12. The new IIP will track several new items such as magnetic stripe cards including debit and credit cards, CCTV cameras, non-woven textile products, aircraft and spacecraft parts, stents, and vaccines.The revised series significantly widens the scope of industrial activity captured in the index by adding emerging and previously underrepresented sectors such as rare earth minerals, gas supply, water management and waste treatment.MoSPI has also overhauled the product basket to better reflect contemporary industrial production patterns, replacing obsolete items with newer commodities and aligning the series with the updated National Industrial Classification (NIC)-2025 framework. The revised basket now comprises 1,042 products mapped to 463 item groups, including 120 new item groups. MoSPI has dropped 64 item groups from the list, which include kerosene, fluorescent tubes and CFLs, tubes for bicycle, tricycle and rickshaw tyres.The new series introduces more granular sub-indices, including separate tracking of renewable and non-renewable electricity generation, allowing policymakers to better monitor India’s evolving energy mix. The mining and quarrying segment has also been split into dedicated indices for fuel minerals, metallic minerals and non-metallic minerals.The revised methodology also allows statistical authorities to replace permanently shut factories with comparable operating units and induct newly commissioned large factories into the sample base during the life of the series. This is expected to improve the representativeness and timeliness of industrial output data.MoSPI will use a geometric mean-based approach to transition from the 2011-12 base series to the new 2022-23 series.Why is the base year being revised?According to a government release, the IIP base year is revised to reflect structural changes in the economy, technological progress, and the growth of new industries and products. “Revising the base year ensures that the index accurately represents current production patterns and provides more reliable data for economic analysis and policy-making,” MoSPI said.A Report of the Technical Advisory Committee for ‘New Series of All India Index ofIndustrial Production 2022-23’ highlighted the need for periodic revision which arises from the dynamic nature of the economy.“The structure of production, the relative importance of industries, and the range of products manufactured undergo continuous change over time,” it said, adding that regular revisions of the base years of economic indicators like IIP are therefore essential to ensure that they remain representative of current industrial activity.The index must continue to accurately reflect evolving economic realities.Citing “significant” advancements in statistical methodologies and computational capabilities over the period, MoSPI report said that the processes that were difficult to execute have now become relatively easier to implement.The new IIP series retains the existing sectors of Mining, Manufacturing, and Electricity. However, it expands the scope by including Gas Supply and Water Supply, Sewerage & Waste Management activities, giving a broader and more accurate picture of industrial production. In the Mining sector, the new IIP series also includes minor minerals and rare earth minerals along with major minerals, making the index more comprehensive.131367884The item basket for sectors, other than Manufacturing, is selected based on the nature of activities and key measurable outputs of each sector. MoSPI, in certain cases, has held consultation with concerned ministries and departments.The new item baskets are as follows:The ‘Mining & Quarrying’ basket includes 34 minerals comprising fuel minerals and metallic & non-metallic minerals regulated, along with 1 rare earth mineral and 9 minor minerals.The ‘Electricity’ basket covers total electricity generation from both renewable and non-renewable sources.The ‘Gas Supply’ basket uses the volume of gas supplied or distributed through mains/pipelines as the item of measurement.Under the ‘Water Supply, Sewerage & Waste Management’, the government tracks water supply through tap connections, sewerage through sewerage/septage connections and waste management through the quantity of waste collected and processed.MoSPI has formed the item groups for IIP by aggregating products based on similarity within the industry group to ensure consistency, comparability, and operational feasibility in monthly data reporting.The government has also kept the revision of substitution of the factories in the new series of IIP to address the challenges of prolonged non-response or closed factory.While the six use-based categories—Primary Goods, Capital Goods, Intermediate goods, Infrastructure/ Construction Goods, Consumer Durable Goods and Consumer Non-Durable Goods—remain the same as the 2011–12 series, individual item classifications have been reviewed in detail and updated.Why is IIP important?The report recognised that the index is “not just a technical statistical indicator, but an important measure” that stakeholders understand the health and direction of the economy.The IIP provides one of the earliest signals of industrial performance, and hence plays a crucial role in economic planning, policymaking, and market analysis.The index plays a pivotal role in tracking cyclical conditions, informing fiscal and monetary policy deliberations, and shaping expectations of businesses and investors, helped by macro and sectoral analysts.MoSPI believes in the idea that economic statistics must keep pace with the economic transformations, and hence new products, emerging technologies, evolving production systems, and changing patterns of industrial activity are being included in the index calculation.“Industrial statistics cannot remain fixed while industries themselves are rapidly changing,” it said in the report cited above.

Congress alleges mismanagement, corruption in ONGC and GSPC; seeks PM’s reply on fuel output decline

The party claims India has suffered an annual loss of 3.695 million metric tonnes in petrol, diesel, and gas production since 2014