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Opinion: Opinion | The China Shock 2.0 May Already Be Here
According to the IMF, China's total non-financial sector debt has climbed to roughly 313% of GDP and is projected to reach 323% by 2026.
๐ฎ๐ณ ์ธ๋ ยท "IMF" ยท ์ด 5๊ฑด
ํํฐ ๋ณด๊ธฐํ์ฌ ์ง์
50.0
0 = ๋ถ์ ์ฐ์ธ
50 = ์ค๋ฆฝ
100 = ๊ธ์ ์ฐ์ธ
์ต๊ทผ 7์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค 5,715๊ฑด์ ๋ถ์ํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ด์ค ์ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง์๋ 50.0(๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)ยท์ค๋ฆฝ 5,715๊ฑด(100.0%)ยท๋ถ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋ฆฝ ๋น์ค์ด ๋๋ ทํ๊ฒ ๋์ต๋๋ค. ์ฑํฅ ์ง์๋ ์ข ํฉ 0.0(์ค๋ ๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค.
According to the IMF, China's total non-financial sector debt has climbed to roughly 313% of GDP and is projected to reach 323% by 2026.
Pakistan is spending heavily on lobbying in the United States. This occurs as the nation faces economic difficulties and water scarcity. The country also deals with rising fuel costs. FARA filings reveal extensive efforts to influence Washington. This includes security, trade, and diplomatic outreach. The lobbying intensified during military tensions with India. Pakistan's army chief made claims about mediation.
New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."
Mumbai: A prolonged West Asia conflict represents a key downside risk to India's economic outlook according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), even as it projected a lower real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.9% for 2026-27 in its annual report compared with 7.6% estimated for the previous financial year.The central bank said the impact of the conflict is likely to remain contained in the near term but warned that an escalation could derail India's otherwise positive growth trajectory."Going forward, India's growth outlook remains positive, though the West Asia conflict and the attendant risks of elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and weather-related disruptions could pose headwinds to growth and inflation in the short run," the Reserve Bank said.Also Read: Iran war - PSBs asked to stay preparedPositive Macro OutlookIt listed healthy corporate and bank balance sheets, government's continued thrust on capital expenditure and the implementation of trade agreements with key partners as positives to help sustain investment and growth momentum."Nevertheless, in a highly uncertain global environment, continuous assessment of the evolving developments is warranted to frame the appropriate policy response on an ongoing basis," the report said.131398139The central bank said that although portfolio flows exhibited a net outflow in 2025-26, strong buffers in the form of ample foreign exchange reserves and modest external debt liabilities continue to impart strength to the external sector, contributing to overall macroeconomic and financial stability.Adequate food grain stocks, sufficient reservoir levels and stable agricultural prospects despite possible El Nino conditions and above-normal summer temperature will keep inflation aligned to the target in 2026-27, according to the RBI. However, upside risks may emanate from a surge in global fuel and commodity prices amid geopolitical tensions, potential spillovers to input and wage costs and volatility in exchange rates.Also Read: India-US trade pact may be weeks away - US Ambassador to India Sergio GorThe central bank projected consumer price inflation for 2026-27 at 4.6%, with risks tilted to the upside, significantly higher than its revised estimate of 3.7% for the previous fiscal.Pressure on BondsDomestic bond yields could face upward pressure if the global monetary easing cycle stalls or reverses in response to persistent oil price shocks amid fragile conditions in West Asia, it said.Geopolitical risk has re-emerged as the dominant drag on global growth in 2026, according to the RBI. "In IMF's baseline scenario, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2026 (as against the earlier projection of 3.3% in January), while global merchandise and services trade volume is expected to decelerate to 2.8% in 2026. Further intensification of the conflict, its prolongation or widening geographical spread, if any, remain the key downside risks to the global economic outlook," the report said."However, the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation, along with the liquidity injection measures by the Reserve Bank, is expected to contain the upward pressure on yields. Equity market dynamics would be conditioned by evolving geopolitical developments, global financial market volatility and foreign portfolio investment flows; a deterioration in risk sentiment alongside strengthening of the US dollar could trigger capital outflows," said the RBI's annual report. "At the same time, ongoing efforts to expand local currency settlement framework are expected to further advance rupee based cross-border transactions."
The global institutions said that the world economy remained resilient.