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'India can return to 7% GDP growth path in FY28'

ICICI Bank shares fall 10% in 6 months. Here’s why Motilal Oswal sees 41% upside potential

ICICI Bank is well-positioned to sustain sector leadership with a healthy growth outlook and robust asset quality, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services while naming the heavyweight private lender its top ‘Buy’ within the banking sector even after the stock tumbled 10% in six months.The shares of ICICI Bank gained over 1% on Thursday to trade at Rs 1,258.40 apiece on NSE. The stock has however fallen over 1% in one week and 6% in 2026 so far. The stock has fallen more than 12% in one year.Despite the muted returns, Motilal Oswal maintained its bullish call for the shares of ICICI Bank. The domestic brokerage said that the private lender is well-positioned to sustain its growth momentum while maintaining profitability benchmarks. It expects the bank to deliver a 16% loan CAGR over FY26-FY28, led by strong growth in business banking and PL, while the corporate segment is also expected to witness healthy traction, supported by working capital demand.ICICI Bank’s liability franchise continues to remain best-in-class, supported by diversified acquisition engines and a rapidly expanding physical network, Motilal said. With a domestic CD ratio of 85.5% and LCR of 126%, the brokerage added that the bank is well placed to capitalize on growth opportunities compared to peers.“ICICI Bank is likely to maintain cost leadership despite meaningful investments in technology, customer delivery, analytics, and talent. ICICIBC’s asset quality remains robust, supported by disciplined underwriting, continued monitoring, and strong recoveries, while the bank maintains a healthy contingency buffer (0.9% of loans). The bank currently does not face additional portfolio stress from the West Asia crisis or ECL transition. Credit costs are, thus, expected to remain contained, with GNPA/NNPA improving to ~1.4%/0.3% by FY28E,” Motilal said.Motilal Oswal on ICICI Bank share priceThe brokerage acknowledged that ICICI Bank shares have delivered tepid performance over the past year, reflecting broader derating across large banking stocks amid persistent FII selling. However, with operating performance holding strong and sustained market share gains across key lending segments, Motilal expects a gradual rerating.It maintained its ‘Buy’ call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,750 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 41% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 1,242 apiece on NSE.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

UBS downgrades BHEL shares to Neutral from Buy. Check target, key reasons

International brokerage firm UBS downgraded BHEL to "Neutral" from "Buy" rating, while raising its target price to Rs 460 from Rs 375, indicating a potential upside of 13.6%. In today’s session, the stock is up over 1% at Rs 411 on the BSE. UBS believes a significant portion of the company's order book expansion is already behind it and noted that competition has intensified over the last three years, with rivals such as L&T and Thermax displaying a stronger appetite for new orders. The brokerage said the stock's risk-reward profile has become more balanced after BHEL outperformed the Nifty by nearly 60% over the past 12 months. Despite the downgrade, UBS remains constructive on BHEL's long-term outlook. It expects a steady flow of orders from the thermal power and industrial segments and believes the company's multi-year revenue visibility does not warrant a "Sell" rating.The brokerage continues to hold earnings estimates above the Street's expectations and has raised its FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts by 1-3%. It has also increased its valuation multiple to 28x from 25x, factoring in a meaningful ramp-up in execution and an improvement in gross margins. UBS further noted that the order book accumulated during FY23-FY26, when BHEL captured an estimated 75-80% market share, provides strong revenue visibility through FY30.Last month, the PSU company reported a whopping 156% surge in its consolidated net profit to Rs 1,290.50 crore for the January-March quarter of the financial year 2026. Sequentially, net profit saw a sharper rise of nearly 231% from the Rs 390.40 crore reported in the third quarter of the financial year 2026.BHEL’s revenue from operations meanwhile grew 37% YoY to Rs 12,310 crore in Q4 FY26, from Rs 8,993 crore in Q4 FY25. The company’s EBITDA more than doubled to Rs 2,005 crore during the quarter under review, from Rs 990 crore in the year-ago period.For the entire financial year 2026, BHEL saw its net profit surge 200% to Rs 1,600.26 crore, from Rs 533.90 crore in FY25. Revenue, meanwhile, grew 19% YoY to Rs 33,782 crore for the financial year, which ended on March 31, 2026.BHEL shares have risen 38% since the beginning of 2026 and about 50% in the last 1 year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Asian Paints up 4% on Q4 beat. What are brokerages saying?

Shares of Asian Paints rallied as much as 4% to their day’s high of Rs 2,778 on the BSE on Monday after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,172 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, marking a 69% year-on-year increase from Rs 692 crore posted in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue from operations during the January-March quarter rose 11% to Rs 9,228.46 crore, compared with Rs 8,349.59 crore reported a year earlier.During the quarter under review, total income increased by more than 11% year-on-year to Rs 9,418 crore. Total expenses rose at a slower pace, increasing nearly 8% to Rs 7,829.17 crore.EBITDA for the quarter rose 24.4% year-on-year to Rs 1,787 crore from Rs 1,436.2 crore in the corresponding period last year. EBITDA margin expanded by more than 200 basis points to 19.3%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier. For the full financial year ended March 31, 2026, Asian Paints reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 4,325.35 crore, up 18% from Rs 3,667.23 crore recorded in the previous financial year. Annual revenue from operations rose around 5% year-on-year to Rs 35,583.54 crore in FY26.Asian Paints shares: Buy, sell or hold?Nomura raised its target price to Rs 3,600 (35% upside) while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting that the company not only retained but improved its guidance despite cumulative price hikes of around 13.5% year-to-date, including 10.5% implemented in April-May and a further 3% increase announced to dealers. The brokerage noted that management's decision to maintain volume growth guidance of 8-10% signals confidence in a strong demand environment. It also pointed to improved product mix guidance of -3% to -4%, compared with the earlier expectation of -5% to -6%, driven by a greater push towards premium and luxury paints, implying high-teens sales growth in FY27. The brokerage also maintained its operating margin guidance of 18-20% despite raw material inflation and competitive pressures. Nomura believes there is a high probability of crude oil prices moderating from current levels over the next six months, which could further support margins.Motilal Oswal maintained its Neutral rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,750, implying a modest upside of up to 3%. The brokerage raised its FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 3%-4%, citing better-than-expected revenue performance. However, it cautioned that the uncertain geopolitical environment and persistent inflationary pressures could continue to weigh on overall demand. Management has guided for high single-digit volume growth in FY27 despite significant price hikes, supported by a favourable base, more painting days due to El Niño conditions and an extended festive season. The brokerage expects standalone EBITDA margins of 19.1% and 19.5% for FY27 and FY28, respectively, while consolidated margins are projected at 18.2% and 18.6%. It also noted that paint demand has remained subdued over the past two years, and recent price increases could delay a broader demand recovery. To counter competitive pressures, Asian Paints continues to focus on product innovation, strengthening brand salience, regionalisation and execution.JM Financial upgraded Asian Paints to Add with a target price of Rs 2,815, implying an upside of 5.4%. The brokerage believes the company's FY27 revenue outlook remains encouraging, supported by management's volume growth guidance of 8-10%. Combined with double-digit price increases, including hikes of around 10.4% already implemented and an additional 2-4% announced from June, along with a lower adverse mix impact of 3-4%, this is expected to drive mid-teen sales growth in FY27. JM Financial noted that demand trends remained stable during April and May, while management remains optimistic about business momentum in the second and third quarters of FY27, aided by a longer festive season. Also read: PSU bank stocks vs private banks in FY27: The valuation trap you need to avoidThe brokerage also highlighted that management has reiterated its EBITDA margin guidance of 18-20% despite significant raw material inflation, supported by price hikes, sourcing efficiencies, an improved product mix and calibrated spending. However, the company expects competitive intensity in the paints sector to remain elevated. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

IndiGo soars 5% after Q4 results. What Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and others are saying

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the operator of budget carrier IndiGo, rallied as much as 5% to their day's high of Rs 4,634 on the NSE on Monday despite reporting a net loss of Rs 2,536 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, compared with a net profit of Rs 3,067 crore in the corresponding period last year. Revenue from operations, however, edged up 1% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 22,438 crore.The airline said its operational performance during the quarter was affected by disruptions linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), increased 3.4% YoY to 43.6 billion.Passenger traffic stood at 31.6 million during the quarter, marking a marginal decline of 1.1% from a year earlier. EBITDAR, excluding foreign exchange impact, stood at Rs 6,435 crore, down from Rs 6,862 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The EBITDAR margin narrowed to 28.7% from 31%.IndiGo shares: Should you buy, sell or hold?Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 5,200, implying an upside of 18% from current levels. The Wall Street major said the airline did not provide full-year FY27 capacity guidance, while elevated costs continue to remain an overhang. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the broader Indian aviation sector, barring IndiGo, continues to face weak profitability and balance sheet stress. The brokerage has retained its valuation at 10x FY28 estimated EV/EBITDAR.Jefferies maintained its Buy rating but lowered its target price to Rs 5,380 (22% upside) from Rs 5,500. The brokerage said the airline delivered a weak but largely in-line performance in the fourth quarter and expects the near-term outlook to remain challenging amid elevated cost pressures. For the first quarter, IndiGo has guided for mid-teen growth in unit revenue, largely driven by higher pricing, with demand so far remaining resilient enough to absorb part of the cost increases. Jefferies believes operating conditions will remain difficult in the near term, though the environment is likely to be even more challenging for peers.Motilal Oswal maintained its Buy rating on IndiGo with a target price of Rs 5,600, implying an upside potential of 27%. The brokerage said that despite near-term challenges from Middle East airspace disruptions, elevated fuel prices, rupee depreciation and higher damp-lease exposure, it remains positive on the airline's long-term growth strategy.It believes IndiGo is well positioned to benefit from India's strong domestic aviation demand and steadily expanding international network. Looking ahead, Motilal Oswal expects a gradual normalisation of international operations, a reduction in Pratt & Whitney-related aircraft groundings, ongoing fleet additions, and the deployment of A321XLR aircraft on international routes to support an earnings recovery.JM Financial maintained its Add rating with a target price of Rs 5,000, noting that capacity growth remained subdued due to the Middle East conflict. IndiGo reported ASK growth of 3.4% year-on-year to 43.6 billion in Q4FY26 and has guided for 3-4% ASK growth in Q1FY27, with most of the increase expected to come from domestic metro and leisure routes.The brokerage expects this, coupled with mid-teen PRASK growth on a favourable base, to support a recovery in unit economics. Capacity was significantly impacted by the West Asia conflict, with around 18% of total capacity affected and more than 160 daily international flights disrupted in March 2026. However, the airline indicated that capacity recovered to around two-thirds of normal levels in May and expects full normalisation by the end of June. JM Financial also highlighted that the number of grounded aircraft remains in the 40s but is likely to decline to the 30s by year-end, which could provide a meaningful boost to both capacity and costs.Elara Capital maintained its Buy rating and target price of Rs 6,020, arguing that the stock's roughly 25% decline over the past six months due to flight disruptions, the Middle East conflict, higher crude oil prices and rupee weakness has created an attractive opportunity. The brokerage believes the market is overly focused on near-term challenges while overlooking the benefits of a prolonged industry-wide capacity shortage.It highlighted that domestic advance fares are up around 17% year-on-year, while international advance fares have risen nearly 40%. Elara also noted that IndiGo reported an adjusted profit of Rs 25 billion in Q4FY26 despite a non-cash foreign exchange loss of Rs 48 billion. Additionally, competitor capacity reductions have been deeper than IndiGo's, supporting the airline's market share gains and pricing power. While the brokerage has lowered its FY27 EBITDA estimate by 7% to account for higher crude oil and rupee assumptions, its FY28 estimates remain broadly unchanged.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Inox Wind shares crash 8% after Q4 profit drops 45% YoY

Shares of Inox Wind tumbled 8% on Monday after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 105.68 crore for the January-March quarter of FY26, down 45% year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 190 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.Shares of the company crashed to Rs 85.61 apiece on NSE, the lowest level since April 10 this year. The firm’s revenue from operations, meanwhile, fell over 2% YoY to Rs 1,244 crore during the fourth quarter of the financial year, which ended on March 31, 2026, from Rs 1,275 crore in the year-ago period. Total income declined marginally to Rs 1,306 crore, while total expenses increased more than 5% YoY to Rs 1,162 crore during the quarter under review.Inox Wind’s EBITDA declined 6% YoY to Rs 333 crore. For the entire financial year 2026, the company reported a 3% rise in bottom line to Rs 449 crore.JM Financial on Inox WindJM Financial highlighted that the company’s Q4 results were an “all-around” miss on estimates. Its revenue was nearly 25% lower than the brokerage’s estimates. “Since management has not shared details, we estimate execution of 85 MW versus 252 MW QoQ/236 MW YoY. Adjusted PAT moderated to Rs 1.1 billion (-44% YoY, -55% JMFe, -52% consensus). The company has an order book of 3.1GW including 1.5 GW from CESC and 750 MW from group companies. Given the challenges in connectivity, RoW and PPAs, we expect IWL to execute 900 MW/1,100 MW during FY27/28,” it said.The domestic brokerage maintained its ‘Add’ rating on the shares of Inox Wind, but reduced its target price to Rs 101 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 9% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 93.02 apiece.Motilal Oswal on Inox WindMotilal Oswal also highlighted that Inox Wind reported a weak set of numbers for Q4. However, it highlighted that the visibility of recurring captive order inflows from Inox Clean, which plans to add 3GW of renewable capacity annually with 20-30% expected to be wind-based, management’s strategy to gradually increase pure equipment supply contracts’ share in the order book from 27% currently to 75% over time, which should improve working capital efficiency and margins, and management’s FY27 revenue growth guidance of 75% YoY with EBITDA margins of 20-22% were the key things it liked about the results.The domestic brokerage lowered its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 7% and 6% respectively. It maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the shares of Inox Wind, with a target price of Rs 110 per share, implying an upside potential of more than 18% from the stock’s previous closing price.Inox Wind share priceInox Wind shares have fallen more than 4% in one week and around 8% in one month to close at Rs 93.02 apiece on Friday. The stock is down more than 24% so far in 2026 and nearly 52% in one year.In the longer term, the shares of the company have delivered returns of more than 169% over three years and 386% over five years. The company currently has a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 9,307 crore. The stock’s P/E ratio stands at nearly 36.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)