๐ฎ๐ณ ์ธ๋ ยท "DE-ESCALATION" ยท ์ด 6๊ฑด
ํํฐ ๋ณด๊ธฐํ์ฌ ์ง์
50.0
0 = ๋ถ์ ์ฐ์ธ
50 = ์ค๋ฆฝ
100 = ๊ธ์ ์ฐ์ธ
์ต๊ทผ 7์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค 6,081๊ฑด์ ๋ถ์ํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ด์ค ์ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง์๋ 50.0(๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)ยท์ค๋ฆฝ 6,081๊ฑด(100.0%)ยท๋ถ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋ฆฝ ๋น์ค์ด ๋๋ ทํ๊ฒ ๋์ต๋๋ค. ์ฑํฅ ์ง์๋ ์ข ํฉ 0.0(์ค๋ ๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค.
Iranโs armed forces announced the end of military strikes against Israel after US President Donald Trump called on both countries to stop โshootingโ
India has voiced grave concern over escalating Middle East violence, urging immediate de-escalation and diplomatic talks. The ongoing conflict, now over 100 days, is causing immense human suffering and impacting the global economy. Indian missions in Israel and Iran have issued urgent travel and safety advisories for citizens, emphasizing caution and immediate departure where necessary.
While warning about the risk of a looming oil shock, Groww Mutual Fundโs equity chief, CA Anupam Tiwari, says multicap strategy together with bottom-up investing can work well in this market.Although there might be valuation concerns in some specific areas, the overall investment environment for active stock picking in mid and small caps has improved to some extent, he says in an interview with ET Markets.Edited excerpts from a chat:Markets have recovered from recent corrections despite geopolitical tensions. What is the market pricing that investors may be underestimating?Markets are showing signs of recovery from the fall due to the prospects of de-escalation and continued talks regarding the resolution of the Middle East crisis. Nevertheless, one possible threat that investors might be overlooking is the possibility of prolonged geopolitical instability that can cause oil prices to remain elevated for an extended period.Sustained higher energy prices could have broader implications for inflation, currency stability, corporate profitability, and economic growth. While markets appear to be pricing in a relatively benign outcome, any disruption that results in persistently elevated crude prices could have a more meaningful impact on the macroeconomic environment than is currently reflected in markets.With valuations still elevated in parts of the market, how should investors think about allocating money across large-, mid- and small-cap stocks today?Broad concerns regarding valuation levels in the market have cooled off in recent months. At the current juncture, close to one-third of the mid-cap space is priced below its five-year average valuation levels, whereas nearly half of the small-cap space is trading below its own five-year average valuation levels.Under these circumstances, although there might be valuation concerns in some specific areas, the overall investment environment for active stock picking in mid and small caps has improved to some extent. Here, a multicap strategy together with bottom-up investing can work well in uncovering better businesses.The multicap category has seen rising investor interest. What advantages does a multicap strategy offer in the current market environment compared to pure large-cap or mid-cap approaches?While the current phase is marked by heightened volatility, volatility is often uneven across segments. In such an environment, a multicap strategy may provide disciplined exposure across market caps within a single portfolio.This allows investors the relative stability and earnings visibility of larger companies, while also participating in the long-term growth potential of mid- and small-cap businesses. By maintaining exposure across segments, a multicap approach can help reduce over-reliance on any single category and provide a more balanced way to navigate changing market conditions.One of the key benefits of a multicap strategy is that it removes the burden of market-cap allocation from investors. Determining when to allocate across segments can be challenging, particularly as market leadership often shifts across cycles. A multicap strategy addresses this by embedding this decision within a disciplined investment framework, freeing investors from having to make often difficult and timing-sensitive allocation calls.From a long-term perspective, multicap funds can serve as a core equity allocation for investors, enabling investors to participate in India's growth story through a combination of established market leaders and emerging businesses.Many retail investors continue to favour mid- and small-caps despite recent volatility. Is the risk-reward equation still attractive in these segments?While mid- and small-cap stocks are generally more exposed during periods of market volatility, the opportunity set within these segments has improved as valuations have moderated across several pockets of the market while business fundamentals have remained intact and even improved in several pockets.Rather than looking at mid and small caps as segments, investors should focus on a disciplined investment framework. Selective opportunities continue to exist despite volatility, making active stock selection increasingly important in determining outcomes.Which sectors currently offer the strongest earnings visibility, and where are you finding opportunities despite market volatility?We continue to focus on sectors where earnings visibility remains relatively strong despite broader market volatility. Financials remain a key area of interest, supported by reasonable valuations, stable asset quality, improving credit growth, and a favorable funding environment, particularly within select NBFCs and mid-sized financial institutions.Within industrials, we remain constructive on themes such as power transmission & distribution, renewable energy, and defence, where order books remain healthy and policy support continues to drive long-term demand. In the auto space, we continue to see opportunities linked to premium consumption trends, EV adoption, and select auto-component manufacturers benefiting from structural drivers such as exports, and regulatory and policy changes.We are also positive on specialty chemicals, particularly businesses with strong contract manufacturing franchises, niche product portfolios, and long-term customer relationships. If you had to allocate fresh money today, which market-cap segment would receive the highest allocation and why?Our equity investment philosophy, QGaRP (Quality and Growth at a Reasonable Price), is market-cap agnostic and driven primarily by stock selection rather than segment-level calls. We seek to invest in businesses that combine high quality management, growth potential, and valuation comfort.That said, our multicap strategy has historically maintained a growth-oriented tilt towards mid- and small-cap companies. With valuations having moderated across several pockets of the mid- and small-cap universe, we believe the environment has become more conducive in these segments for active stock selection.As a result, while we continue to maintain a diversified allocation across market caps, we remain constructive on selectively identifying opportunities within the mid- and small-cap space where fundamentals, growth prospects, and valuations are aligned with our philosophy.
OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that have surged since the Iran war effectively choked off Gulf crude shipments.But even if the cartel members vow to ramp up output by thousands of barrels per day, analysts say geopolitical realities mean they probably won't move the needle on prices.Also read: OPEC+ leaders expected to up July oil output target despite Hormuz disruption, sources sayWith the crucial Strait of Hormuz shut since US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have nearly doubled, igniting inflation pressures worldwide.Ministers from the 21 member states of OPEC+, the main oil producing nations and their allies, are holding their quarterly meeting online.The group is likely to beef up its production quotas by "188,000 barrels a day", said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, similar to recent increases. But in reality, only seven members -- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- have the capacity to do so.Dwindling supply Tehran's threats of retaliatory attacks to US and Israeli strikes have virtually blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass.That is equivalent to about 20 million barrels a day. But with key Gulf producers shut out of the global market, pledges to raise output in a bid to ease spiralling prices are unlikely to sway traders. "Any announced production increases or changes to output targets will have limited practical value," said Ole Hansen, a commodities analyst at Saxo Bank."There is very little OPEC can do," he told AFP.OPEC+ itself says daily production has plummeted to just 33 million barrels a day as tankers remain stuck, compared to nearly 43 million before the conflict.A US blockade on Iranian ports means "it will be even less than that" in reality, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at data firm Kpler.Also read: Oil prices fall on mounting hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran WarUAE slams the door The United Arab Emirates' recent decision to quit OPEC further saps away at the cartel's influence, given its huge excess production capacity.And Abu Dhabi has made clear it wants to boost output."They don't want to be dictated to, they want to maximise their revenues," said Lawrence Haar, a lecturer in finance at the University of Brighton in England. And the cartel risks seeing other countries follow the UAE's example."If Iraq were to leave, it could mark the end of OPEC+," Falakshahi said.Saudi Arabia, by far the cartel's most influential member, "is going to do what it takes to stop anyone else from leaving," Falakshahi predicted.That could translate into more flexible output quotas or decreased penalties for any excess production.But "for now, the compensation framework has effectively become irrelevant due to widespread production shut-ins," Hansen said.As a result, the Iran war has largely neutralised the cartel's stated mission "to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, and a steady income to producers". For Falakshahi, the only factor limiting further oil price spikes at the moment is China, "which is buying less oil than normal" by tapping into its vast strategic reserves.
New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."
Indian stock market traded in deep red on Tuesday, with Sensex and Nifty falling more than 0.5% each as renewed tensions around the Iran-US war, along with persistent FII selling spooked investors.Sensex declined over 415 points to 73,852, while Nifty 50 fell 142 points to 23,240, as seen at 9.17 am. This came even as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, tumbled 2.5% to 16.13.Bajaj Finance shares were the top losers on the index, falling nearly 3%. Eternal, Bharat Electronics (IBEL), Bajaj Finserv, Trent, NTPC, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement and L&T followed, dropping 1-2%. Bucking the trend, IT stocks including Infosys, TCS, TechM and HCL Tech gained 1-3%.Broader markets underperformed benchmarks, with Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices falling around 1% each. Sectorally, Nifty Auto, Nifty Realty, Nifty Consumer Durables and few other indices declined more than 1% each. Bucking the trend, Nifty IT gained nearly 2%. Around 887 stocks advanced on NSE, while 1,650 declined and 97 remained unchanged.The trend of sustained AI trade, new records for markets in US, South Korea and Taiwan, sustained FPI selling in India and Indiaโs underperformance are continuing with no immediate signs of reversal, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. โTo add to Indiaโs problems, the energy shock has led to downward revision of Indiaโs GDP growth and upward revision of inflation this financial year. And now we have the additional threat of the IMDโs latest projection of monsoon rains at 90% of long term average, which will have negative implications for growth and inflation,โ he added.A resolution of the West Asia conflict and the consequent dip in crude price will be a big positive, but expectations on that front have been belied and the issue continues to hang fire, the analyst explained. โIn these tough times of huge uncertainty and challenges, the ideal strategy for investors is to stick to the basics. Do proper asset allocation based on oneโs risk profile and financial goals and wait with patience,โ he further said.Iran-US war uncertaintiesIran and US traded strikes, while Israel ordered troops to move further into Lebanon in its battle with the Tehran-backed โHezbollah militant group. The renewed tensions in the Middle East, after Washington โ hosted Israel-Lebanon peace โtalks on Friday, dimmed hopes that the US and Iran could soon announce an extension to their ceasefire, which continues to grow fragile.US President Donald Trump meanwhile took to Truth Social on Monday evening, saying that he persuaded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call off the strike on Beirut, following which the Israeli leader "turned his troops around". "I had a conversation with Bibi Netanyahu today (Monday), asking him not to go into a major raid of Beirut, Lebanon. He turned his Troops around. Thank you Bibi," he said, referring to the Israeli prime minister by his widely used nickname.Trump said on Friday he would soon decide on โ a proposed deal to extend a ceasefire announced in early April. Israel would be key to any such deal, and Iran has said repeatedly that Hezbollah and Lebanon must be included. The US has proposed a "gradual de-escalation" plan, a US official said on Sunday.Oil prices riseBrent crude futures neared $95 per barrel mark while WTI Crude futures neared $92 per barrel as a result of the recent escalations. This comes after Brent and WTI Crude dropped 19% and 17% in May, recording their biggest monthly fall in absolute terms since March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic slashed energy demand.The rising military strikes in the geopolitically fragile Middle East raised worries over the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 33-kilometre waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman that handles over 20% of the worldโs daily oil and gas shipments.FII selling continuesForeign investors remained net sellers of Indian equities, net selling shares worth nearly Rs 3,912 crore on Dalal Street on Monday. This came after a massive Rs 22,102 crore selloff in just one session on May 29. Notably, South Koreaโs equity market has overtaken Indiaโs as the worldโs sixth largest, driven by a relentless surge in chip heavyweights powering the global artificial intelligence buildout.(With inputs from agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)