The Hindu National
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Thunderstorms, rain and heatwave likely to prevail in A.P. for three more days
Severe heatwave conditions are likely in 56 mandals on Saturday, while heatwave conditions are expected in 51 mandals, says APSDMA
๐ฎ๐ณ ์ธ๋ ยท "CONDITION" ยท ์ด 112๊ฑด
ํํฐ ๋ณด๊ธฐํ์ฌ ์ง์
50.0
0 = ๋ถ์ ์ฐ์ธ
50 = ์ค๋ฆฝ
100 = ๊ธ์ ์ฐ์ธ
์ต๊ทผ 7์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค 6,237๊ฑด์ ๋ถ์ํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ด์ค ์ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง์๋ 50.0(๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)ยท์ค๋ฆฝ 6,237๊ฑด(100.0%)ยท๋ถ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋ฆฝ ๋น์ค์ด ๋๋ ทํ๊ฒ ๋์ต๋๋ค. ์ฑํฅ ์ง์๋ ์ข ํฉ 0.0(์ค๋ ๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค.
Severe heatwave conditions are likely in 56 mandals on Saturday, while heatwave conditions are expected in 51 mandals, says APSDMA
Following the onset of the southwest monsoon over the South Andaman Sea on May 16, conditions continue to remain favourable for its further intensification
As India sees incessant FII selloff so far this year, the government and RBI announced a slew of measures to ease foreign investments in government securities, with analysts suggesting that these may provide some short-term support for Dalal Street.India scrapped the long-term capital gains tax on investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in government securities through an ordinance issued on Friday. The government has now exempted FIIs from tax on any interest income from government securities, as well as capital gains arising from their sale, exchange or transfer, according to an official gazette. Separately, while announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also unveiled a series of measures to boost FPI investments, including expanding the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to cover new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year government bonds.Limits on investments by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments without Sebi registration are being raised, allowing them to invest larger amounts without regulatory registration. The facility is also proposed to be extended to all Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), bringing them on par with NRIs and OCIs. This came as the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%What does this mean for Indian stock market?The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without Sebi registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, which is expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows, said Arun Poddar, CEO of Choice International.He highlighted that equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. โThis move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period,โ he said.The government's move to exempt Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities is โhighly positiveโ for the capital markets, said Sumit Singhania, Head of Research at Bajaj Broking. โThis fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments,โ he added.The policy is distinctly positive for bond markets and well-capitalized Banks and NBFCs, which benefit from targeted hedging subsidies and systemic stability, according to Archit Doshi, Senior Vice President at PL (Prabhudas Lilladher) AMC. โConversely, one should be underweight rate-sensitive sectors, which remain highly vulnerable to margin compression, higher inflation expectations, and the threat of the RBI reaching its tightening tipping point,โ he said.Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO of Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund, also said that the announcements aimed at enabling more dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. โThe concessional swap facility should help stabilise short end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term,โ he said.For equities and debt markets, the measures to attract FII inflows are supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, they signal a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure, said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP of Research at Religare Broking.Sachin Bajaj, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, also said that the initiatives are expected to support capital inflows, deepen domestic bond markets, and provide support to the Indian rupee over the short to medium term.RBIโs hawkish tone and the Indian stock marketWhile the measures taken to attract FII inflows in the debt market will likely provide short-term support for Dalal Street, analysts advised caution over the RBIโs hawkish policy stance. While the RBI maintained its policy repo rate as per expectations, the tone was much more cautious than in previous meetings.Sachin Bajaj highlighted that the policy emphasised preserving macroeconomic stability amid the prevailing global macroeconomic environment. โWe believe there are significant risks to inflation in the coming months due to the pass-through of higher commodity prices to consumers and elevated food prices resulting from a below-normal monsoon. Going forward, there is a risk of an upward revision in inflation projections, and given the evolving global backdrop, we believe the RBI is likely to maintain a prudent, data-dependent approach. Future policy actions will be contingent on evolving growth-inflation dynamics and global developments,โ he added.Also read: Explained: Sebi's Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue inflation allegations against Rajesh ExportsWhile hawkish rhetoric without an accompanying rate hike provides a temporary respite for equity markets, it does not constitute an unequivocal endorsement of investment, particularly in highly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automotive, and consumer discretionary goods, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors.โShould inflation necessitate a rate increase later this year, these sectors are likely to experience pressure on both margins and demand. For investors, the current strategy emphasises capital preservation by focusing on high-quality equities with strong pricing power. This cautious approach is designed to navigate the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties until conditions stabilise,โ the analyst added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Shares of Go Digit General Insurance surged 8.66% to Rs 329 during Friday's trading session, extending gains after a significant Rs 100-crore block deal in the previous session attracted prominent institutional investors.The block deal saw Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund and JPMorgan (Taiwan) Eastern Technology Fund collectively acquire 33.33 lakh shares at a weighted average price of Rs 300 per share.Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund purchased 21.66 lakh shares worth approximately Rs 65 crore, while JPMorgan (Taiwan) Eastern Technology Fund acquired 11.66 lakh shares valued at around Rs 35 crore.The seller in the transaction was Peak XV Partners Growth Investments III, which offloaded its entire 33.33 lakh-share stake for nearly Rs 100 crore.Stock PerformanceDespite Friday's sharp rally, Go Digit Insurance has remained under pressure over the past year, with the stock declining around 10% during the period. The company currently commands a market capitalisation of Rs 27,993 crore.The stock's 52-week high stands at Rs 381.40, while its 52-week low is Rs 295.50.On the valuation front, Go Digit Insurance trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 49.28 and a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 6.51, reflecting premium market expectations for the insurer's growth prospects.The company delivered a robust financial performance in the March 2026 quarter. Revenue rose 9% year-on-year to Rs 3,181 crore, while net profit surged 49.2% YoY to Rs 173 crore, highlighting improved profitability and operational efficiency.The shareholding pattern for the March 2026 quarter reflected mixed investor activity. Promoters marginally reduced their stake in the company from 73.03% to 73.01%, while Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) trimmed their holdings from 8.26% to 8.01%. In contrast, mutual funds increased their ownership from 8.02% to 8.28%, signaling continued confidence from domestic institutional investors despite the reduction in foreign investor participation.From a technical perspective, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) stands at 40.8. An RSI below 30 is generally considered oversold, while a reading above 70 signals overbought conditions.Go Digit Insurance is currently trading above 5 out of its 8 key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting improving near-term momentum. However, the stock remains below its 100-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating that long-term trend confirmation is still awaited.The sharp rally following the Rs 100-crore block deal and increased mutual fund participation has put Go Digit Insurance back on investors' radar. Market participants will closely watch whether the stock can sustain momentum and reclaim key long-term resistance levels in the coming sessions.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
After rainy season's arrival in India on Thursday, the IMD said conditions are likely to become favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon.
Conditions are favourable for further advancement of southwest monsoon.
Mumbai: It is India's fourth biggest company by revenue, but the managing director of precious metals trader Rajesh Exports (REL) apparently doesn't know how and from where it gets the biggest chunk of the revenue, show the findings of a regulatory investigation.In its investigation report, the Securities and Exchange Board of India observed allegedly unscrupulous activities by REL's promoters, such as accounting irregularities and siphoning off of company funds into personal accounts, and also pointed out lapses by its auditors. The regulator said the company and its auditors were non-cooperative."The acts of REL constitute a deliberate device, scheme and artifice to mislead and defraud investors dealing in the shares of REL by portraying an inflated and misleading picture of its operational scale, revenue and financial health," Sebi observed in its report.The company, eponymously named after its chairman Rajesh Mehta, is accused of committing an elaborate financial fraud that includes dressing-up of revenues of โน15.15 lakh crore over the years, personal gold trades covered up as corporate sales and phoney gold mine investments of โน1,035 crore, according to the interim report.REL denied the charges of misdeeds. In a press release Thursday, the company said the revenues stated in its financials were correct and that the confusion arose because of a mix-up between Ebitda and revenue numbers at Swiss refiner Valcambi SA, an indirect subsidiary.Sebi has not made any adverse observation with regard to earnings, the company said, claiming that the regulator has only observed suspicion with regard to revenues which was primarily because of confusion over the Valcambi numbers.Numbers don't add upIn fiscal 2025, REL reported consolidated revenue of โน4.23 lakh crore against a profit after tax of just โน95 crore, translating into a net margin of barely 0.02%. The year before, on โน2.8 lakh crore revenue, profit was โน336 crore.Experts who have studied the Sebi report and the company's annual reports say the numbers did not add up. The business appeared to be operating at margins that were not merely thin but structurally negligible, they said."It looks like a case of pass-through accounting. There is no value creation. It was 'flow of gold' being booked as revenue," said a leading auditor on the condition of anonymity.Sebi, which began the investigations in March 2024 following a shareholder complaint about suspected accounting malpractices, said it found that about 97-99% of REL's consolidated revenues were attributed to its overseas subsidiaries, principally Valcambi. But Valcambi's own accounts, audited by KPMG SA, recorded only processing fees that were about โน3,027 crore across five years.Valcambi refined gold on behalf of clients and never took ownership of the precious metal or recognised the value of gold as revenue in its books. Yet, Global Gold Refineries AG (GGR), the parent of Valcambi that had no independent operating business, recorded gross revenues running into hundreds of crores by including the gross value of gold that actually belonged to others, according to the Sebi report.Rajesh Exports, which owns GGR through a Singapore subsidiary, used those unaudited figures in its financial statements, significantly bumping up the company's revenue, it said.In its press release, REL said: "The core observation in the order is with regard to the misreporting of the revenues. This has emerged primarily due to confusion because Sebi has considered the Ebitda of Valcambi instead of revenue hence it has stated that there is a difference of about 97% in the revenue.""There is no reason for any listed entity to inflate revenue and maintain the earnings, this will only reduce the margins of the company, which would be adverse to the company," it said.Senior management in the darkThe senior management of REL told regulators that most of them were in the dark about the company's overseas operations and only the promoter, Rajesh Mehta, dealt with those activities."Valcambi SA does not have any gold mine on its own," managing director Suresh Gowda was quoted in the Sebi order as saying. "It refines the raw gold purchased by it from various entities, whose names I do not recollect, as these things are exclusively handled by Rajesh Mehta, chairman of REL. I have never interacted nor involved with any subsidiary/step-down subsidiary of REL, as these were exclusively taken care of by Rajesh Mehta," he told the investigators, as per the order.According to the report, REL booked โน11,487 crore in sales between 2021-22 and 2023-24 to Affluence Shares and Stocks, a broker that made up to 66% of the company's standalone revenue for that period. But Affluence, in formal depositions to the regulator, said it had not done any business with REL.Following the transaction trail, the investigators found out that the transactions were personal gold derivative trades executed by promoter Mehta using his own brokerage account and then recorded in the company's books as corporate sales, the order said.The investigators also found that Mehta used corporate funds. As per the Sebi observations, bank records show REL transferred โน338.90 crore directly into Mehta's personal accounts between April 2020 and September 2025.Unlike in the case of Nirav Modi or Gitanjali Gems, who are accused of bank fraud, Rajesh Exports doesn't appear to have borrowed big from banks or through sale of bonds, according to regulatory filings.The company's market cap was just over โน3,000 crore, as per Thursday's closing share price. LIC (10.8%) and Bridge India Fund (8.46%) are its major institutional shareholders."It is striking that, even at a peak market capitalisation of โน25,000 crore, the company did not hold any analyst calls, a basic expectation for a listed company of that scale," said Shriram Subramanian, founder and managing director of InGovern Research Services, a corporate governance advisory firm.The regulator in 2024 hired BDO India Services to investigate. But the forensic audit faced problems at almost every stage of the investigation. It was denied access to ERP systems and was not provided a complete journal dump, preventing independent verification of transactions recorded in the books, according to the regulatory report.And the company declined to share subsidiary-level records with the investigator, citing Swiss data protection laws, limiting auditors largely to reviewing financial statements prepared by the management itself rather than underlying evidence, it said.What's also come under the scanner was the conduct of statutory auditors for the last few years: CA PV Ramana Reddy, the proprietor at PV Ramana Reddy & Co, and CA PL Venkatadri, partner at BSD & Co.The company's FY24 and FY25 annual reports, filed with the stock exchanges, carry an unqualified opinion from BSD & Co, which concluded that the financial statements presented a "true and fair view" in line with Indian Accounting Standards.The company's FY24 Directors' Report noted that the statutory and secretarial auditors had made no qualifications, reservations or adverse remarks.The Sebi report said for over five months, the auditors sat on the regulator's request for missing documents and statements.Emails sent to both audit firms did not elicit any response.REL closed 5% lower at โน103.92 Thursday on the NSE. The shares are down from their peak of โน1,028.40 on February 6, 2023.
Wall Street advanced on Thursday as โprogress toward ending the Iran war buoyed investor sentiment, while disappointing results from Broadcom led a chip selloff that held the Nasdaq's gains in check.The blue-chip Dow surged, hitting a record closing high with a boost from healthcare and financial stocks.The S&P 500 posted more muted gains, while the Nasdaq โended essentially unchanged. Chipmaker Broadcom โ missed revenue โ expectations, sending its shares tumbling and casting a pall over the AI frenzy, which has sent chip stocks soaring so far this year."About the only blemish โon the market at this point is Broadcom, and I think investors are buying the dip," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market โstrategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois. "I don't think investors have given up on chips yet, but what they've yet to come to grips with, 'Is this real? Are these valuations legitimate?' I'm not sure yet that investors have really questioned that." The U.S. House of Representatives โpassed a measure on Wednesday that would block President Donald Trump from continuing โ the war on Iran. Additionally, โa U.S.-mediated ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, an essential condition of an Iranian agreement to โa peace deal, bolstered โoptimism of a near-term resolution to the war. But the truce was rejected by the pro-Iran Hezbollah, โ which said it would not withdraw troops from Lebanon.A drop in front-month crude โfutures reflected hopes that tanker traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz could shortly resume."How many โdeals have we had? It's always right around the corner, a corner we've yet to reach," Nolte added. "Things are moving, but are they moving at a pace that's going to allow the world to get back to what passes for normal in a few weeks, a few months, or maybe sometime next year?"On the economic front, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose 6.1%, and first-quarter labor costs and productivity were revised sharply lower. A report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed layoffs announced by U.S. corporations jumped 11% in โMay to 97,006. Nearly 40% of those layoffs were attributed to AI.According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 31.14 points, or 0.41%, to end at 7,584.82 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 19.72 points, โor 0.07%, to 26,834.26. The โDow Jones Industrial Average rose โ 875.09 points, or 1.73%, to 51,562.16.Chipmaker Marvell Technology gained, while Advanced Micro Devices, Micron Technology and Qualcomm lost ground on the day.The healthcare sector got a boost from UnitedHealth after Bank of America raised its rating on the healthcare conglomerate's shares to "buy."The financial index's rebound โfollowed a sharp selloff in the previous session due to revived concerns over private credit. Blackstone shares advanced after it became the latest asset manager to cap withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund following a rise in redemption requests. Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike slumped after reporting an increase in quarterly operating expenses. An investor roadshow for Elon Musk-led SpaceX began on Thursday ahead of its market debut on June 12. It aims to raise $75 billion in a record IPO that would value it at $1.75 trillion.
Tragedy struck a Jewar Airport flyover construction site near Faridabad as a crane overturned amidst adverse weather, claiming three lives. Officials confirmed that four individuals were trapped inside a container, with one rescued alive but injured. The State Disaster Response Force is continuing rescue efforts, having recovered three bodies. The accident is attributed to severe weather conditions.
IndiGo is temporarily halting flights to six international destinations, including Hong Kong and Shanghai, until September 30. This strategic move aims to optimize its network amidst softer travel demand and escalating operating costs. The airline plans to resume services on October 1, contingent on improved market conditions, while maintaining a significant portion of its global operations.
IndiGo has announced the temporary suspension of flights to six international destinations as it adjusts its network amid softer travel demand and rising operational costs.The airline said the move is part of a broader network optimisation strategy aimed at matching capacity with current market conditions while maintaining operational efficiency.Which International Routes Has IndiGo Suspended?According to the airline, services to the following destinations will be temporarily suspended:Hong KongShanghaiHo Chi Minh CityLangkawiKrabiSiem ReapFlights to Hong Kong, Shanghai, Ho Chi Minh City, Langkawi and Krabi will be suspended from July 1, while services to Siem Reap will be paused from July 3.Read more: HSBC says Asia's largest slum could soon have metro stations, green spaces & 125,000 new homesThe suspension is expected to remain in place until September 30.Why Has IndiGo Suspended These Flights?IndiGo said the decision was driven by a combination of softer seasonal demand and a challenging operating environment.The airline noted that the upcoming quarter typically witnesses lower travel demand, especially on certain international routes.At the same time, airlines continue to face increased operational expenses, making it necessary to review network deployment.In a statement, IndiGo said: "These measured changes are designed to align capacity with current market conditions and demand trends, while ensuring the airline maintains reliability and network integrity across its global destinations."Will IndiGo Restart These Routes?Yes. The airline has confirmed that bookings for all affected routes will reopen from October 1, subject to an improvement in market conditions.IndiGo also stated that it remains prepared to restore services earlier if demand improves and operational conditions become more favourable.Airspace Restrictions Continue To Affect AirlinesApart from rising costs, airlines are also dealing with continuing airspace restrictions that have impacted flight operations and route planning.Several carriers globally have been forced to adjust schedules, reroute aircraft and review international networks due to changing geopolitical and operational challenges.IndiGo said it will continue monitoring the situation closely before making further decisions regarding these routes.IndiGo Retains More Than 1,800 Weekly International FlightsDespite the temporary suspension of six destinations, IndiGo said its international network remains largely intact.The airline continues to operate more than 1,800 international flights every week across its global network.This allows the carrier to maintain strong international connectivity while adjusting capacity where demand is currently weaker.What Does This Mean For Travellers?Passengers planning trips to the affected destinations between July and September may need to consider alternative airlines or adjust their travel plans.However, travellers heading to other international destinations served by IndiGo are unlikely to see any major disruption, as the airline has retained the majority of its overseas operations.The move highlights how airlines are increasingly balancing demand, operating costs and network efficiency as global travel patterns continue to evolve.IndiGo Focuses On Network OptimisationThe temporary suspension reflects a broader trend in the aviation industry, where airlines are becoming more flexible in managing capacity.Rather than operating flights with lower demand, carriers are increasingly redeploying aircraft to stronger-performing routes and adjusting schedules based on market conditions.For IndiGo, the strategy is aimed at protecting profitability while ensuring reliable operations across its growing domestic and international network.Inputs from PTI
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature mandatory three-minute hydration breaks midway through each half, effectively splitting matches into four quarters regardless of weather conditions. The change gives coaches extra tactical time and allows broadcasters to air commercials, adding over 10 hours of stoppage time across the tournament. While some coaches support the move, others fear it could disrupt footballโs traditional flow and rhythm.
HDFC Mutual Fund has restricted lumpsum investments in its gold ETF and fund of fund - HDFC Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF Fund of Fund with effect from June 8 and June 5 respectively.The fund house informed its unitholders that it has decided to temporarily restrict lumpsum subscriptions in HDFC Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF Fund of Fund until further notice.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: India could unlock a $5 trillion export opportunity through FTAs, says Saurabh Mukherjea In HDFC Gold ETF, subscription transactions by large investors directly with HDFC Mutual Fund (i.e. investing minimum Rs 25 crore) shall not be accepted from the effective date. In HDFC Gold ETF FoF, lumpsum purchases /switch-ins into the FOF shall be processed only upto a limit of Rs 10 lakh per PAN per calendar month (at first holder level). This limit shall apply in respect of transactions received after cut-off time (3:00 PM) on June 5.It further said that all other terms and conditions of the schemes will remain unchanged. This addendum shall form an integral part of the SID / KIM of the schemes as amended from time to time.Launched on December 28, 2022, HDFC Gold ETF had an AUM of Rs 69.72 crore as of April 30, 2026. In the last one year, the fund lost 4.01% and since its inception it has given a CAGR of 8.27%.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: Future alpha may emerge from neglected markets and asset classes, says Kalpen Parekh HDFC Gold ETF FoF was launched on November 1, 2011 and had an AUM of Rs 11,464 crore as of April 30. In the last one year, it gave a return of 57.05% and since its inception it has given a return of 11%.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
Severe weather conditions, including rainfall and thunderstorms, disrupted flight operations at Delhi airport on Thursday. Thirteen incoming flights were forced to go around, with 11 diverted to other airports. A yellow alert remains in effect for Friday, forecasting continued light rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds.
Forest department officials said that he was stable until Wednesday (June 3) evening. However, his condition deteriorated and he died from his injuries at around 1.30 a.m on Thursday morning
The condition of Rijith, 45, from Vanimel in Kozhikode, worsened after a keyhole surgery was performed in August 2025 to remove kidney stones
Tourism Minister Kapil Mishra said the government would formally withdraw the scheme and take action against operators violating licence conditions.
Heatwave conditions to intensify in parts of Andhra Pradesh
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affectedโand acceleratedโby the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equitiesโthe largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the companyโs future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currencyโprocurement, treasury, sales, capex planningโ must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of Chinaโs 90% model. It is restricting Indiaโs industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
One reason for the below-normal rainfall could be the emergence of El-Nino conditions, which lead to less rain during monsoon in the country