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The Economic Times (India)

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Iran war hobbles power to shape oil market

OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to weigh higher production quotas in a bid to cap oil prices that have surged since the Iran war effectively choked off Gulf crude shipments.But even if the cartel members vow to ramp up output by thousands of barrels per day, analysts say geopolitical realities mean they probably won't move the needle on prices.Also read: OPEC+ leaders expected to up July oil output target despite Hormuz disruption, sources sayWith the crucial Strait of Hormuz shut since US and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, oil prices have nearly doubled, igniting inflation pressures worldwide.Ministers from the 21 member states of OPEC+, the main oil producing nations and their allies, are holding their quarterly meeting online.The group is likely to beef up its production quotas by "188,000 barrels a day", said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, similar to recent increases. But in reality, only seven members -- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- have the capacity to do so.Dwindling supply Tehran's threats of retaliatory attacks to US and Israeli strikes have virtually blocked the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass.That is equivalent to about 20 million barrels a day. But with key Gulf producers shut out of the global market, pledges to raise output in a bid to ease spiralling prices are unlikely to sway traders. "Any announced production increases or changes to output targets will have limited practical value," said Ole Hansen, a commodities analyst at Saxo Bank."There is very little OPEC can do," he told AFP.OPEC+ itself says daily production has plummeted to just 33 million barrels a day as tankers remain stuck, compared to nearly 43 million before the conflict.A US blockade on Iranian ports means "it will be even less than that" in reality, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at data firm Kpler.Also read: Oil prices fall on mounting hopes for de-escalation in US-Iran WarUAE slams the door The United Arab Emirates' recent decision to quit OPEC further saps away at the cartel's influence, given its huge excess production capacity.And Abu Dhabi has made clear it wants to boost output."They don't want to be dictated to, they want to maximise their revenues," said Lawrence Haar, a lecturer in finance at the University of Brighton in England. And the cartel risks seeing other countries follow the UAE's example."If Iraq were to leave, it could mark the end of OPEC+," Falakshahi said.Saudi Arabia, by far the cartel's most influential member, "is going to do what it takes to stop anyone else from leaving," Falakshahi predicted.That could translate into more flexible output quotas or decreased penalties for any excess production.But "for now, the compensation framework has effectively become irrelevant due to widespread production shut-ins," Hansen said.As a result, the Iran war has largely neutralised the cartel's stated mission "to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, and a steady income to producers". For Falakshahi, the only factor limiting further oil price spikes at the moment is China, "which is buying less oil than normal" by tapping into its vast strategic reserves.

The Economic Times (India)

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West Asia war fuels airline bankruptcy risks

Soaring jet fuel prices driven by conflict in the Middle East are likely to push more airlines into bankruptcy and spur more sector consolidation this year and next, the head of the global airline body said on Saturday. Global airlines are grappling with higher fuel costs driven by the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran, which has choked jet fuel supplies and disrupted key air corridors, forcing costly detours.Also read: Airbus delays XLR deliveries to IndiGo as war hits suppliers Budget carriers have been among ‌the hardest hit, ⁠lacking higher margin ⁠revenue streams such as premium cabins, high-paying travelers and credit card loyalty programs. The strain is already showing: U.S. budget airline Spirit Airlines collapsed last month, and it will not be the last, said Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, the industry's main trade body. "Unfortunately I think there will be some carriers that will find this high fuel price very difficult to cope with," Walsh told Reuters at IATA's annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, adding he expects some airlines to go out of business and others to be acquired by larger carriers. Even so, the pressure does not spell the end of the low-cost airline model, which continues to thrive outside the United States, where the big three carriers, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines and American ⁠Airlines, are squeezing ‌out budget competitors, Walsh said. "I don't see that the low-cost model is broken, in fact, quite the opposite," he said, highlighting Ryanair's strong performance in Europe as an example. There is one blockbuster deal Walsh does not see happening: United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby's audacious ⁠proposal to buy arch rival American Airlines and create a U.S. aviation behemoth. The idea, which surfaced earlier this year, failed to get done despite Kirby raising it with President Donald Trump. "I don't think that's going to happen. I think the regulatory hurdles would be very significant. I don't know whether that was a genuine effort to pursue consolidation or Scott just trying to stir up some media," Walsh said. MIDDLE EAST AIRLINE WOES The Iran conflict has upended traffic flows through Middle Eastern hubs such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, creating acute challenges for Gulf carriers including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad. Walsh said he didn't think the conflict would do permanent damage to the Gulf as an aviation hub given its strategic geographic importance and the value of the popular Gulf carriers, which account for 14% of ‌global capacity. "That capacity cannot be replaced by airlines from other regions around the world," Walsh said. "Once things settle down, I would expect the Gulf carriers to regain their important position in the market." Adding to the strain is the slow pace of aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus, along with engine delays from ⁠GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney, a unit of RTX, limiting airlines' ability to expand fleets and improve efficiency.Also read: Airline chiefs grapple with fuel shock, fare test at Rio summit Walsh said the industry is increasingly frustrated by the delays, particularly as engine makers post strong profits while airlines struggle. He estimates supply chain disruption cost airlines about $11 billion last year. "We're disappointed that they're not moving faster. We're disappointed that they're not sharing the pain that the airline industry is sharing," he said. Aircraft and engine makers have said that much of the delays are out of their control, stemming from post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and political trade disputes. As airlines come under financial strain and climate policies lose momentum in the U.S. under Donald Trump, industry leaders have grown more cautious about meeting a 2050 net zero emissions target. Walsh said IATA is not ready to abandon the goal. "I certainly believe it's more challenging to achieve net zero in 2050 because we've not made the progress that we had expected to see on the development of sustainable fuels," he said.

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