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์ค๋ ์ฑํฅ
๊ธฐํ
Analysis: Operation Blue Star, An Emotional Memory, Not A Poll Issue
Punjab's voters have increasingly focused on bread-and-butter issues.
๐ฎ๐ณ ์ธ๋ ยท "BREAD" ยท ์ด 6๊ฑด
ํํฐ ๋ณด๊ธฐํ์ฌ ์ง์
50.0
0 = ๋ถ์ ์ฐ์ธ
50 = ์ค๋ฆฝ
100 = ๊ธ์ ์ฐ์ธ
์ต๊ทผ 7์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค 5,595๊ฑด์ ๋ถ์ํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ด์ค ์ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง์๋ 50.0(๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)ยท์ค๋ฆฝ 5,595๊ฑด(100.0%)ยท๋ถ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋ฆฝ ๋น์ค์ด ๋๋ ทํ๊ฒ ๋์ต๋๋ค. ์ฑํฅ ์ง์๋ ์ข ํฉ 0.0(์ค๋ ๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค.
Punjab's voters have increasingly focused on bread-and-butter issues.
Manzoor Ahmed, who had been working as a tailor in Kuwait for nearly 30 years, was killed in an Iranian strike that targeted Kuwait International Airport on Wednesday
Market volatility took center stage following a sharp late-Friday sell-off triggered by MSCI rebalancing and global cues. While cautious sentiment prevails, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, highlights critical Nifty support levels that could prevent further damage. In this exclusive interview, he breaks down the June series rollover data, IT sector resilience, and top stock picks.Edited excerpts from a chat:The sell-off seen in the last 30 minutes on Friday has scared traders as to what could be in the offing on Monday morning. What do you think?IMDโs below-normal monsoon forecast and uncertainty over US-Iran talks in the backdrop gave an ominous feel to the drop that unfolded towards Fridayโs close. However, the steepness of the fall is apparently due to MSCI rebalancing, with futures and options segment appearing reluctant to match such move. Nevertheless the large red candle registered on Niftyโs chart needs to be acknowledged, and we will start the new week on a cautious note. That 23500 was defended, gives us reason to be optimistic, but slippage past the same, or inability to reclaim the 10 day SMA near 23750 will confirm bearishness calling for 22800.Nifty has been seeing profit booking at higher levels in last few weeks. What does the rollover data indicate for the June series?The rollover data for June series suggests a cautious to mildly negative undertone despite selective strength. Niftyโs rollover dropped to 69.98% in May, below the 3-month average of 73.05%, indicating reduced willingness to carry forward positions, likely reflecting profit booking at higher levels. Similarly, Bank Nifty rollover moderation points to some cooling in conviction within the heavyweight banking segment.Market breadth has weakened as well, with only 52% of stocks closing positive vs 91% in April, highlighting broader profit-taking pressure. While strong rollovers in select sectors like Oil & Gas, Metals, Power and Infra signal pockets of resilience, weakness in Pharma, Healthcare, and Transportation suggests lack of uniform participation.Although long buildup was visible in Telecom, Capital Goods, and Pharma, the early trend in June appears cautious. Importantly, banks-despite prior long build-up-have started the June series on a weak footing, with heavyweights like SBI and HDFC Bank under pressure, which could weigh on Nifty due to their high index weight.Nifty IT is showing signs of resilience even during sell-off. What are the charts indicating at?The Nifty IT index is showing early signs of a trend reversal after a prolonged corrective phase. On the daily chart, the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern suggests a base-building process, with prices currently hovering near the neckline zone around the 29,500-29,600 region. A sustained move above this level could confirm a breakout and trigger momentum towards higher resistances.On the higher timeframe, the weekly MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, indicating a potential shift from bearish to positive momentum. This aligns with improving price structure and supports the medium-term recovery thesis.From a longer-term perspective, the monthly candlestick is forming a pin bar Doji, typically seen near inflection points, highlighting rejection of lower levels around the 27,000-28,000 zone and signaling demand absorption.However, confirmation is key. Immediate support lies near 28,000, while a decisive breakout above the neckline could open upside towards 31,000-32,000. Failure to sustain above key resistance may keep the index range bound.HFCL was among the top gainers of the week. Do you see signs of the momentum continuing in the week ahead?Long wicked candle on Friday, with a close above upper bollinger band point to a mix of strong trending nature and emerging cautiousness. Oscillators appear reluctant, but are yet to confirm an impending collapse. With these in the backdrop, longs may be held on to, but ideally with a stop loss placed near 168.Natco Pharma fell 14% on Friday after weak Q4 results. Do you see signs of bottom-fishing emerging in the coming week?Yes. The single day red candle which has resulted in a break of structure, is likely to be followed by bottom fishing and a pull back rally that could extend 3-4%. However, we do not see enough signs to indicate that such pull back attempt could sustain.Give us your top ideas of the week. INDIANB (LTP: 833)View: BuyTarget: 930SL: 790 Indian Bank continues to maintain a structurally strong uptrend on the weekly chart, characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows since early 2024. The recent profit booking since April seems to have found a support near 800 healthy consolidation after a sharp rally, with the stock holding firmly above the 780-750 support zone, which now acts as a strong demand base.Despite the recent pullback from near 1000 levels, the correction appears time-wise rather than price-destructive, suggesting profit booking rather than trend reversal. The presence of a rising support trendline reinforces the bullish structure.Momentum indicators are cooling off from overbought levels, which is constructive in a trending market. The RSI is stabilising near the mid-zone, providing room for a fresh upside leg, while MACD is approaching levels where a potential bullish crossover on lower drawdown could emerge.SHYAMMETL (LTP: 973)View: BuyTarget: 1080SL: 930 Shyam Metalics is exhibiting a strong bullish breakout from a descending trendline on the weekly chart, indicating a potential resumption of the broader uptrend after a period of consolidation. Price has decisively moved above the 950-960 resistance zone, which also coincided with prior swing highs, adding conviction to the breakout.The structure reflects higher lows formation, suggesting steady accumulation. Momentum indicators are turning supportive with RSI trending upward above the mid-zone, while MACD has delivered a bullish crossover with rising histogram, reinforcing improving momentum. Weekly Supertrend breakout adds to positivity. Volume expansion near the breakout area further validates buyer participation and strengthens the breakout reliability. Additionally, price holding above short-term supports near 930 indicates a favorable risk-reward setup.As long as the stock sustains above the breakout zone, it is well-positioned to extend its upward move towards the 1080 target.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are directly impacting household budgets, driving up prices for everyday essentials like cooking oil, milk, and bread. Soaring global crude oil prices and a weakening rupee are increasing import, fuel, and transportation costs, leading to a domino effect on consumer goods and even healthcare services.
With Indian markets trading near elevated long-term averages, relying on a single, static asset class carries higher risk. According to Ihab Dalwai, Senior Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential AMC, high return dispersion means the real opportunity over the next three years lies in a flexible asset allocation framework that actively shifts capital between equities, debt, and commodities to deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes.Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager:How different is Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy from your existing Balanced Advantage Fund or Multi-Asset Fund, which you already co-manage?Unlike the traditional mutual fund offerings such as Balanced Advantage Funds (BAF) or Multi-Asset Funds, the Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy is structurally different as it operates within the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) framework, which provides decent higher portfolio flexibility.While BAFs and Multi-Asset Funds primarily manage net exposure through hedging and dynamic allocation, the SIF structure allows us to deploy a wider range of derivative-based strategies. This enables the portfolio to potentially generate returns not only from directional market participation but also from relative opportunities across asset classes and market conditions.Another key difference is the breadth of the opportunity set. The strategy dynamically allocates across equities, debt, commodities, InvITs and derivatives, with the flexibility to actively recalibrate exposures depending on valuations, macros and risk-adjusted opportunities. The objective is to create a more adaptive portfolio that seeks smoother outcomes across cycles while maintaining a disciplined buy low, sell high philosophy.At a time when Indian markets are trading near elevated long-term averages, how are you reading the current risk-reward equation across equities, debt and commodities? Which asset class currently looks most attractive from a three-year perspective?From a three-year perspective, we believe investors should avoid thinking in terms of a single winning asset class. The current environment is more suited for dynamic asset allocation because return dispersion across asset classes could remain high.Equity valuations have corrected in pockets where expectations are low and such opportunities have increased over the last 1-2 years. At the same time, fixed income has become relatively more attractive after the sharp repricing in global rates. Commodities, especially precious metals, performed well over the last year due to dollar devaluation, however that trend has currently paused because of rising rates in the US.In our view, the opportunity today lies in actively shifting between these asset classes rather than remaining concentrated in one asset class. Over the next three years, a flexible allocation approach may potentially deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes than static exposure.Your framework talks about โbeing invested the right way at the right time.โ What are the biggest macro variables driving your current asset allocation stance?Our framework for equities combines a valuation plus earnings overlays. In case of debt and commodities, our allocation is based on various macro indicators. The key macro variables we monitor include growth trends, inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, real interest rates, currency movements and earnings cycles. At a broader level, we try to identify the prevailing growth-inflation regime because different asset classes tend to perform differently across economic phases. For example, equities and cyclical commodities generally perform better during growth-led expansions, while gold and duration assets tend to outperform during slowdown or uncertainty-driven phases.Commodities are emerging as a bigger allocation theme globally. Do you believe Indian investors remain structurally underallocated to commodities if we exclude household gold?Commodities has to be seen from a tactical allocation perspective rather than a structural allocation as they donโt pay either dividend or interest as other asset classes do. Hence, give the sharp run up in commodity prices, we donโt see an issue with relatively lesser allocation to commodities today.How do you see gold behaving if global growth weakens but inflation remains sticky?It is a tricky situation because the outlook on real rates is not clear. Historically gold as an asset class tends to do well when US real rates come off.What role do InvITs play in the portfolio construction process, especially in a rising interest rate environment?InvITs can play an important diversification role within the portfolio because they provide exposure to infrastructure-linked cash flow assets that are relatively distinct from traditional equity and debt instruments.In a rising rate environment, there can be near-term valuation pressure on yield-oriented assets, including InvITs. However, the impact also depends on the strength and growth visibility of the underlying assets and cash flows. Therefore, selective allocation becomes important rather than taking a broad-based view.Do you think that midcaps are now in a sweet spot and, barring a few pockets, unimpacted by the geopolitical conflict? In your Large and Midcap Fund, how overweight are you on midcaps?Midcaps continue to offer selective opportunities, particularly in businesses benefiting from domestic economic formalisation, manufacturing expansion, financialisation and government-led capex. However, after the strong rally seen over the last few years, valuations in certain parts of the midcap universe continue to remain elevated. Therefore, midcaps are not a homogeneous segment. Stock selection and valuation discipline become increasingly important in the current environment.Within the midcap universe, which sectors do you like from a 3-5 year perspective and why?The approach to midcaps has to be bottom up. Having said that, there are opportunities in certain platform companies and consumer facing businesses which have meaningfully underperformed over the last three years and have muted expectations from the market which makes them a good investment case today.
With Indian markets trading near elevated long-term averages, relying on a single, static asset class carries higher risk. According to Ihab Dalwai, Senior Fund Manager at ICICI Prudential AMC, high return dispersion means the real opportunity over the next three years lies in a flexible asset allocation framework that actively shifts capital between equities, debt, and commodities to deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes.Edited excerpts from a chat with the fund manager:How different is Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy from your existing Balanced Advantage Fund or Multi-Asset Fund, which you already co-manage?Unlike the traditional mutual fund offerings such as Balanced Advantage Funds (BAF) or Multi-Asset Funds, the Active Asset Allocator Long-Short strategy is structurally different as it operates within the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) framework, which provides decent higher portfolio flexibility.While BAFs and Multi-Asset Funds primarily manage net exposure through hedging and dynamic allocation, the SIF structure allows us to deploy a wider range of derivative-based strategies. This enables the portfolio to potentially generate returns not only from directional market participation but also from relative opportunities across asset classes and market conditions.Another key difference is the breadth of the opportunity set. The strategy dynamically allocates across equities, debt, commodities, InvITs and derivatives, with the flexibility to actively recalibrate exposures depending on valuations, macros and risk-adjusted opportunities. The objective is to create a more adaptive portfolio that seeks smoother outcomes across cycles while maintaining a disciplined buy low, sell high philosophy.At a time when Indian markets are trading near elevated long-term averages, how are you reading the current risk-reward equation across equities, debt and commodities? Which asset class currently looks most attractive from a three-year perspective?From a three-year perspective, we believe investors should avoid thinking in terms of a single winning asset class. The current environment is more suited for dynamic asset allocation because return dispersion across asset classes could remain high.Equity valuations have corrected in pockets where expectations are low and such opportunities have increased over the last 1-2 years. At the same time, fixed income has become relatively more attractive after the sharp repricing in global rates. Commodities, especially precious metals, performed well over the last year due to dollar devaluation, however that trend has currently paused because of rising rates in the US.In our view, the opportunity today lies in actively shifting between these asset classes rather than remaining concentrated in one asset class. Over the next three years, a flexible allocation approach may potentially deliver better risk-adjusted outcomes than static exposure.Your framework talks about โbeing invested the right way at the right time.โ What are the biggest macro variables driving your current asset allocation stance?Our framework for equities combines a valuation plus earnings overlays. In case of debt and commodities, our allocation is based on various macro indicators. The key macro variables we monitor include growth trends, inflation trajectory, liquidity conditions, real interest rates, currency movements and earnings cycles. At a broader level, we try to identify the prevailing growth-inflation regime because different asset classes tend to perform differently across economic phases. For example, equities and cyclical commodities generally perform better during growth-led expansions, while gold and duration assets tend to outperform during slowdown or uncertainty-driven phases.Commodities are emerging as a bigger allocation theme globally. Do you believe Indian investors remain structurally underallocated to commodities if we exclude household gold?Commodities has to be seen from a tactical allocation perspective rather than a structural allocation as they donโt pay either dividend or interest as other asset classes do. Hence, give the sharp run up in commodity prices, we donโt see an issue with relatively lesser allocation to commodities today.How do you see gold behaving if global growth weakens but inflation remains sticky?It is a tricky situation because the outlook on real rates is not clear. Historically gold as an asset class tends to do well when US real rates come off.What role do InvITs play in the portfolio construction process, especially in a rising interest rate environment?InvITs can play an important diversification role within the portfolio because they provide exposure to infrastructure-linked cash flow assets that are relatively distinct from traditional equity and debt instruments.In a rising rate environment, there can be near-term valuation pressure on yield-oriented assets, including InvITs. However, the impact also depends on the strength and growth visibility of the underlying assets and cash flows. Therefore, selective allocation becomes important rather than taking a broad-based view.Do you think that midcaps are now in a sweet spot and, barring a few pockets, unimpacted by the geopolitical conflict? In your Large and Midcap Fund, how overweight are you on midcaps?Midcaps continue to offer selective opportunities, particularly in businesses benefiting from domestic economic formalisation, manufacturing expansion, financialisation and government-led capex. However, after the strong rally seen over the last few years, valuations in certain parts of the midcap universe continue to remain elevated. Therefore, midcaps are not a homogeneous segment. Stock selection and valuation discipline become increasingly important in the current environment.Within the midcap universe, which sectors do you like from a 3-5 year perspective and why?The approach to midcaps has to be bottom up. Having said that, there are opportunities in certain platform companies and consumer facing businesses which have meaningfully underperformed over the last three years and have muted expectations from the market which makes them a good investment case today.