뉴스

Are banks open or closed in your state today?

India takes big moves to attract foreign investments in bonds: How will this impact stock market?

As India sees incessant FII selloff so far this year, the government and RBI announced a slew of measures to ease foreign investments in government securities, with analysts suggesting that these may provide some short-term support for Dalal Street.India scrapped the long-term capital gains tax on investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in government securities through an ordinance issued on Friday. The government has now exempted FIIs from tax on any interest income from government securities, as well as capital gains arising from their sale, exchange or transfer, according to an official gazette. Separately, while announcing the outcome of the MPC meeting, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra also unveiled a series of measures to boost FPI investments, including expanding the Fully Accessible Route (FAR) to cover new issuances of 15-, 30- and 40-year government bonds.Limits on investments by NRIs and OCIs in equity instruments without Sebi registration are being raised, allowing them to invest larger amounts without regulatory registration. The facility is also proposed to be extended to all Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), bringing them on par with NRIs and OCIs. This came as the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%What does this mean for Indian stock market?The proposal to increase investment limits for NRIs and OCIs in listed equity instruments without Sebi registration, and to extend the same facility to all individual Persons Resident Outside India (PROIs), is a significant step toward broadening participation in Indian capital markets, which is expected to improve market depth, liquidity and long-term capital inflows, said Arun Poddar, CEO of Choice International.He highlighted that equally important is the removal of capital gains tax on government securities investments for foreign investors. “This move strengthens the attractiveness of India's bond market and could encourage greater foreign participation in government debt. At a time of heightened global volatility, these measures reinforce investor confidence, support capital inflows, and reaffirm India's commitment to building deeper, more globally integrated financial markets, with the policy rate expected to remain low for an extended period,” he said.The government's move to exempt Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) from capital gains tax on any interest earned from government securities is “highly positive” for the capital markets, said Sumit Singhania, Head of Research at Bajaj Broking. “This fiscal cushion arrives at a crucial time, offering a strong shield to domestic markets as the RBI chief warned of volatile forex markets driven by shifting global sentiments,” he added.The policy is distinctly positive for bond markets and well-capitalized Banks and NBFCs, which benefit from targeted hedging subsidies and systemic stability, according to Archit Doshi, Senior Vice President at PL (Prabhudas Lilladher) AMC. “Conversely, one should be underweight rate-sensitive sectors, which remain highly vulnerable to margin compression, higher inflation expectations, and the threat of the RBI reaching its tightening tipping point,” he said.Rajeev Radhakrishnan, CFA, CIO of Fixed Income at SBI Mutual Fund, also said that the announcements aimed at enabling more dollar inflows are more significant in the near term, even though the overall policy stance has been broadly in line with expectations. “The concessional swap facility should help stabilise short end market rates and the foreign exchange market in the near term,” he said.For equities and debt markets, the measures to attract FII inflows are supportive of liquidity and inflows, while for the rupee, they signal a clear intent to anchor expectations and reduce volatility amid global oil shocks and sustained foreign selling pressure, said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP of Research at Religare Broking.Sachin Bajaj, Chief Investment Officer at Axis Max Life Insurance, also said that the initiatives are expected to support capital inflows, deepen domestic bond markets, and provide support to the Indian rupee over the short to medium term.RBI’s hawkish tone and the Indian stock marketWhile the measures taken to attract FII inflows in the debt market will likely provide short-term support for Dalal Street, analysts advised caution over the RBI’s hawkish policy stance. While the RBI maintained its policy repo rate as per expectations, the tone was much more cautious than in previous meetings.Sachin Bajaj highlighted that the policy emphasised preserving macroeconomic stability amid the prevailing global macroeconomic environment. “We believe there are significant risks to inflation in the coming months due to the pass-through of higher commodity prices to consumers and elevated food prices resulting from a below-normal monsoon. Going forward, there is a risk of an upward revision in inflation projections, and given the evolving global backdrop, we believe the RBI is likely to maintain a prudent, data-dependent approach. Future policy actions will be contingent on evolving growth-inflation dynamics and global developments,” he added.Also read: Explained: Sebi's Rs 15.15 lakh crore revenue inflation allegations against Rajesh ExportsWhile hawkish rhetoric without an accompanying rate hike provides a temporary respite for equity markets, it does not constitute an unequivocal endorsement of investment, particularly in highly rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, automotive, and consumer discretionary goods, said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors.“Should inflation necessitate a rate increase later this year, these sectors are likely to experience pressure on both margins and demand. For investors, the current strategy emphasises capital preservation by focusing on high-quality equities with strong pricing power. This cautious approach is designed to navigate the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties until conditions stabilise,” the analyst added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The curious case of Rajesh Exports: Massive revenues, meagre profits

Mumbai: It is India's fourth biggest company by revenue, but the managing director of precious metals trader Rajesh Exports (REL) apparently doesn't know how and from where it gets the biggest chunk of the revenue, show the findings of a regulatory investigation.In its investigation report, the Securities and Exchange Board of India observed allegedly unscrupulous activities by REL's promoters, such as accounting irregularities and siphoning off of company funds into personal accounts, and also pointed out lapses by its auditors. The regulator said the company and its auditors were non-cooperative."The acts of REL constitute a deliberate device, scheme and artifice to mislead and defraud investors dealing in the shares of REL by portraying an inflated and misleading picture of its operational scale, revenue and financial health," Sebi observed in its report.The company, eponymously named after its chairman Rajesh Mehta, is accused of committing an elaborate financial fraud that includes dressing-up of revenues of ₹15.15 lakh crore over the years, personal gold trades covered up as corporate sales and phoney gold mine investments of ₹1,035 crore, according to the interim report.REL denied the charges of misdeeds. In a press release Thursday, the company said the revenues stated in its financials were correct and that the confusion arose because of a mix-up between Ebitda and revenue numbers at Swiss refiner Valcambi SA, an indirect subsidiary.Sebi has not made any adverse observation with regard to earnings, the company said, claiming that the regulator has only observed suspicion with regard to revenues which was primarily because of confusion over the Valcambi numbers.Numbers don't add upIn fiscal 2025, REL reported consolidated revenue of ₹4.23 lakh crore against a profit after tax of just ₹95 crore, translating into a net margin of barely 0.02%. The year before, on ₹2.8 lakh crore revenue, profit was ₹336 crore.Experts who have studied the Sebi report and the company's annual reports say the numbers did not add up. The business appeared to be operating at margins that were not merely thin but structurally negligible, they said."It looks like a case of pass-through accounting. There is no value creation. It was 'flow of gold' being booked as revenue," said a leading auditor on the condition of anonymity.Sebi, which began the investigations in March 2024 following a shareholder complaint about suspected accounting malpractices, said it found that about 97-99% of REL's consolidated revenues were attributed to its overseas subsidiaries, principally Valcambi. But Valcambi's own accounts, audited by KPMG SA, recorded only processing fees that were about ₹3,027 crore across five years.Valcambi refined gold on behalf of clients and never took ownership of the precious metal or recognised the value of gold as revenue in its books. Yet, Global Gold Refineries AG (GGR), the parent of Valcambi that had no independent operating business, recorded gross revenues running into hundreds of crores by including the gross value of gold that actually belonged to others, according to the Sebi report.Rajesh Exports, which owns GGR through a Singapore subsidiary, used those unaudited figures in its financial statements, significantly bumping up the company's revenue, it said.In its press release, REL said: "The core observation in the order is with regard to the misreporting of the revenues. This has emerged primarily due to confusion because Sebi has considered the Ebitda of Valcambi instead of revenue hence it has stated that there is a difference of about 97% in the revenue.""There is no reason for any listed entity to inflate revenue and maintain the earnings, this will only reduce the margins of the company, which would be adverse to the company," it said.Senior management in the darkThe senior management of REL told regulators that most of them were in the dark about the company's overseas operations and only the promoter, Rajesh Mehta, dealt with those activities."Valcambi SA does not have any gold mine on its own," managing director Suresh Gowda was quoted in the Sebi order as saying. "It refines the raw gold purchased by it from various entities, whose names I do not recollect, as these things are exclusively handled by Rajesh Mehta, chairman of REL. I have never interacted nor involved with any subsidiary/step-down subsidiary of REL, as these were exclusively taken care of by Rajesh Mehta," he told the investigators, as per the order.According to the report, REL booked ₹11,487 crore in sales between 2021-22 and 2023-24 to Affluence Shares and Stocks, a broker that made up to 66% of the company's standalone revenue for that period. But Affluence, in formal depositions to the regulator, said it had not done any business with REL.Following the transaction trail, the investigators found out that the transactions were personal gold derivative trades executed by promoter Mehta using his own brokerage account and then recorded in the company's books as corporate sales, the order said.The investigators also found that Mehta used corporate funds. As per the Sebi observations, bank records show REL transferred ₹338.90 crore directly into Mehta's personal accounts between April 2020 and September 2025.Unlike in the case of Nirav Modi or Gitanjali Gems, who are accused of bank fraud, Rajesh Exports doesn't appear to have borrowed big from banks or through sale of bonds, according to regulatory filings.The company's market cap was just over ₹3,000 crore, as per Thursday's closing share price. LIC (10.8%) and Bridge India Fund (8.46%) are its major institutional shareholders."It is striking that, even at a peak market capitalisation of ₹25,000 crore, the company did not hold any analyst calls, a basic expectation for a listed company of that scale," said Shriram Subramanian, founder and managing director of InGovern Research Services, a corporate governance advisory firm.The regulator in 2024 hired BDO India Services to investigate. But the forensic audit faced problems at almost every stage of the investigation. It was denied access to ERP systems and was not provided a complete journal dump, preventing independent verification of transactions recorded in the books, according to the regulatory report.And the company declined to share subsidiary-level records with the investigator, citing Swiss data protection laws, limiting auditors largely to reviewing financial statements prepared by the management itself rather than underlying evidence, it said.What's also come under the scanner was the conduct of statutory auditors for the last few years: CA PV Ramana Reddy, the proprietor at PV Ramana Reddy & Co, and CA PL Venkatadri, partner at BSD & Co.The company's FY24 and FY25 annual reports, filed with the stock exchanges, carry an unqualified opinion from BSD & Co, which concluded that the financial statements presented a "true and fair view" in line with Indian Accounting Standards.The company's FY24 Directors' Report noted that the statutory and secretarial auditors had made no qualifications, reservations or adverse remarks.The Sebi report said for over five months, the auditors sat on the regulator's request for missing documents and statements.Emails sent to both audit firms did not elicit any response.REL closed 5% lower at ₹103.92 Thursday on the NSE. The shares are down from their peak of ₹1,028.40 on February 6, 2023.

FPI exodus from financials cools, but foreign investors remain net sellers

Mumbai: Global investors continued to pare equity stake in the financial services sector in the second half of May, however the pace of selling came off.Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold shares worth ₹5,181 crore from the sector in the period, significantly lower than the outflow of ₹17,000 crore in first half of the month, according to the data from NSDL. Between January and March, global investors pulled out shares worth over ₹60,000 crore from the sector."Banking stocks offered foreign investors an easy exit from India by virtue of being highly liquid," said U R Bhat, co-founder & director, Alphaniti. "Despite the sell-off, the sector has fared well, barring a few specific exceptions. Now investors are reducing exposure in other sectors."Bank Nifty fell 1% over the past one month compared with a 2.9% drop in the benchmark Nifty 50."Global investors toned down the selling in the banking and financial services sector and bought selectively- mostly smaller banks instead of the large caps which is why the pace of outflows moderated," said Sonam Srivastava, founder and CEO, Wright Research. Overseas investors sold shares worth ₹14,621 crore across 13 sectors in the second half of May, after withdrawing ₹38,443 crore across 19 sectors in the first half of the month.131518952FPIs have continued the selling spree in the current calendar year, offloading equities worth ₹2.6 lakh crore up till June 03. This exceeds their outflow of ₹1.7 lakh crore in the whole of 2025. A sustained selling pressure has intensified this year due to AI disruption and inflationary pressure on account of elevated oil prices given the US-Iran war. In addition, the net outflow of ₹1.3 lakh crore in FY27 so far exceeds the net investment of ₹84,132 crore by FPIs since FY17. The cumulative net foreign investment in Indian equities dropped to the lowest level in 12 years to ₹7.1 lakh crore in FY27.In the second half of May, automobiles and oil and gas sectors reported worth over ₹2,000 crore. On May 29, The MSCI rebalancing led to outflows worth ₹8,000-8,500 crore which also factored in the outflows for this fortnight. "Changes in the MSCI Index shifts the composition of not just index funds that mimic the index but also weighs on decisions of other funds,who largely use MSCI indices as benchmarks" said Bhat.Among sectors that reported net inflows in the second half of May, metals attracted nearly 60% of the inflows -the highest foreign inflows worth ₹4,999 crore for the period. The sector witnessed inflows worth over ₹6,500 crore in May.

Ten arrested for attempt to murder case in Nellore

The incident took place on Tuesday midnight on the banks of Penna river in Mudivarthipalem village of Indukurpet mandal

CBSE clarifies re-evaluation payments

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) on Wednesday clarified that students applying for verification and re-evaluation of Class XII answer sheets do not need to have accounts with State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda or Indian Bank to make payments on its online portal, addressing confusion that emerged after the system was launched earlier this week, Times of India reported.The clarification came after several students claimed on social media that the portal appeared to restrict payments to customers of the four public sector banks. In a statement posted on X, CBSE said the portal only uses payment gateways operated by these banks and does not require applicants to hold accounts with them.Also Read: Claude, other AI tools used to breach CBSE portals: IIT Panel“Candidates may use the available online payment options — UPI, net banking, credit card and debit card — through the designated gateways,” the board said.CBSE also said the portal continued to function smoothly despite a major cyberattack attempt on Tuesday, shortly after it went live. According to the board, the platform came under a barrage of denial-of-service attacks within minutes of its launch, receiving nearly 1.5 million hits in two minutes along with more than one lakh attempts at unauthorised file access.The board said its technical teams worked continuously to maintain the stability and security of the platform.“The portal has accepted 4,924 applications for verification and 39,056 applications for re-evaluation (total of 43,980) as of 12 noon today,” CBSE said.The board urged students to rely only on official CBSE communication for updates related to the process.Also Read: CBSE re-evaluation portal keeps lakhs of students guessingThe verification and re-evaluation window opened on June 2 for Class XII students who had earlier obtained scanned copies of their answer books evaluated under the board’s new digital On-Screen Marking (OMS) system.

Nilesh Shah recommends 4 investment bets that should be part of your portfolio

As geopolitical headwinds make it tougher for equity investors to make money, Dalal Street’s top voice Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told a gathering of HNI investors at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit on Thursday that there are four specific investment structures which deserve a place in most portfolios right now.Shah’s first recommendation was the Special Investment Fund, or SIF, a structure that marks a meaningful shift in what is available to Indian investors. Shah noted that the mutual fund industry has, until now, been a long-only business but the SIF changes that. These are long-short, absolute return-oriented funds, designed to generate returns regardless of market direction rather than simply riding the equity tide.The second vehicle Shah flagged is performing credit AIFs. His reasoning was grounded in a simple supply-demand observation that for corporate settlements today, capital is not available from banks, mutual funds, or insurance companies.As institutional lenders have stepped back, borrowers are plenty and lenders very few. Amid this imbalance, Shah said the need is real and returns are attractive. Performing credit AIFs, which lend into this gap, are positioned to benefit directly from the scarcity of competing capital.https://youtube.com/shorts/Xa4AcXFg8hA?feature=shareThe third idea was REITs, and here Shah introduced a timing element. Over the last three years, REITs have delivered index-level returns of around 13.5%. But with interest rates rising, he suggested that the next six to nine months may present an opportunity to enter at better prices. Rising rates typically compress REIT valuations in the near term, and Shah framed any such correction as a potential entry point rather than a risk to avoid. Beyond the return potential, he positioned REITs as a portfolio diversification tool as the asset class behaves differently from equities and fixed income, and that is still underrepresented in most Indian investor portfolios.The fourth recommendation addressed global diversification but came with an important caveat. Mutual fund industry limits for overseas investment are currently full, which means the conventional route for Indian investors to access global markets through domestic mutual funds is closed. Shah pointed to Gift City as the workaround. Structures domiciled there allow investment under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, and in his view, these Gift City-based LRS products are the practical path for investors who want global exposure while the mutual fund window remains shut.Across all four — the SIF, performing credit AIFs, REITs, and Gift City products — Shah's underlying argument was the same: in a volatile period, the portfolio needs instruments that can generate positive returns through means other than a rising equity market.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

The ₹ warning: Six actions for biz leaders

The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affected—and accelerated—by the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equities—the largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the company’s future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currency—procurement, treasury, sales, capex planning— must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of China’s 90% model. It is restricting India’s industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).

CBSE blocks 3.8 million cyberattack packets amid revaluation rush

CBSE said it successfully blocked a 3.8 million-packet denial-of-service (DoS) cyberattack targeting its verification and re-evaluation portal while maintaining uninterrupted services for students. Despite the attempted disruption, the portal processed over 56,000 applications for answer-book verification and re-evaluation. The Board said technical teams are enhancing performance and security. Partner banks, including SBI, Bank of Baroda, Indian Bank and Canara Bank, processed thousands of payment transactions as CBSE’s digital systems continue to face public scrutiny.

Manufacturing sector emerges as key structural play amid global supply chain shift

Mumbai: Aggressive equity mutual fund investors looking to diversify beyond banks and information technology can consider an exposure to the manufacturing theme given the rising potential for the sector amid growing domestic demand and a focus of global companies to form alternative supply chains. Wealth managers, however, believe investors should consider this as a satellite allocation for their portfolio and stagger their investments over the next six months.The Nifty Manufacturing Index has a low overlap of only 19% with the Nifty 50. Investors looking to buy into segments absent in the Nifty 50, will find manufacturing a good fit. "The sector appears to be transitioning into the early-to-mid phase of a broader structural capital expenditure and earnings cycle-an environment that has historically supported sustained wealth creation," says R Sivakumar, chief investment officer, Axis Mutual Fund. Sivakumar believes after a relatively subdued 2025, the outlook for 2026 indicates recovery underpinned by continued policy support, strengthening domestic demand and Global supply chain diversification.131494387The BSE India Manufacturing TRI has gained 7.3% year-on-year and 15.8% annually over a three-year period, outperforming the 4% and 9.3% return of the Nifty 50 in that order. Despite the outperformance, analysts believe this theme merits investment as there are new opportunities coming up in the manufacturing space in addition to traditional opportunities.A rapid expansion in the global data center capacity has given rise to demand for power equipment, cooling systems, prefabricated industrial modules and speciality materials. In addition, geopolitical developments are forcing countries to move to green energy with focus on electric vehicles and renewables. Supply chain disruptions on account of tariffs in Europe are also bringing in opportunities for India.

Planning to get your first loan or credit card? How lenders evaluate new-to-credit customers

Not having any credit accounts is a big disadvantage when looking to access new credit. But what can help is your existing relationship with banks, particularly those that hold your salary or savings account.

Why US banks still rely on 65-year-old COBOL code

India's CPI inflation expected to rise to 4.8%

New Delhi: India's CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8 per cent with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27, according to a report by 360 ONE Capital. This projection comes as the ongoing conflict in West Asia and a downgraded domestic monsoon forecast introduce fresh challenges to India's macroeconomic trajectory.The report noted that the conflict in West Asia and the resulting energy supply disruptions warrant a reassessment of key macroeconomic assumptions. "Our revised base case assumes de-escalation by mid-June, with crude oil averaging USD 90/bbl in FY27. Under this scenario, CPI inflation is expected to rise by around 70 bps to 4.8% (from 4.1%), while GDP growth moderates to 6.3% (from 6.7%). The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 4.6% of GDP (from 4.4%), and the current account deficit to 2.1% of GDP (from 1.3%)," the report stated.Also read: India meets FY26 fiscal deficit goal at 4.4% of GDP despite revenue and global pressuresThe report noted that India's economic momentum remains stable due to domestic consumption and public spending, but geopolitical frictions pose tangible downside risks. Supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz are particularly vital, as India sources nearly 50 per cent of its LPG and around 30 per cent of its natural gas requirements through this route.Even though the "net petroleum import bill has declined from 5.5% of GDP in FY14 to around 3.0% in FY25, the economy remains exposed to a prolonged disruption in energy supplies."On the monetary front, global financial conditions continue to tighten as central banks react to persistent inflationary impulses. While the Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, domestic bond yields face upward pressure from a widening fiscal deficit and higher energy costs.Also read: Manufacturing activity at 3-month high in May despite cost woesThe report mentioned that the impact on macroeconomic variables is likely to be non-linear, implying significantly larger downside risks if the conflict persists. "A further USD 10/bbl increase in crude prices above our base assumption could push inflation to 5.6% (assuming a partial pass-through of around 5% to retail fuel prices), lower GDP growth by an additional 40 bps to 5.9%, widen the current account deficit to 2.5% GDP, and increase the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP," the report added.Compounding these external geopolitical risks, the domestic agricultural outlook faces unexpected pressure. In its Second Long Range Forecast, the IMD downgraded the Southwest Monsoon 2026 forecast to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 92 per cent estimated in April.This development represents the weakest monsoon outlook since 2015, which raises immediate concerns over overall agricultural output and rural demand.In the global perspective, the IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps, citing risks from the Middle East conflict through higher commodity prices, inflation, and tighter financial conditions.The report stated that under the IMF's reference scenario, "global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, below both the recent 3.4% pace and the historical average of 3.7%. In adverse scenarios, growth could slow to 2.5% or even 2.0%, accompanied by significantly higher inflation, with emerging markets expected to be disproportionately affected."

"Fire Reaches Eiffel Tower," Claims Viral Video. A Fact-Check

A fire broke near the banks of the Seine, sending thick clouds of smoke into the air.

Asian Paints up 4% on Q4 beat. What are brokerages saying?

Shares of Asian Paints rallied as much as 4% to their day’s high of Rs 2,778 on the BSE on Monday after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,172 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, marking a 69% year-on-year increase from Rs 692 crore posted in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue from operations during the January-March quarter rose 11% to Rs 9,228.46 crore, compared with Rs 8,349.59 crore reported a year earlier.During the quarter under review, total income increased by more than 11% year-on-year to Rs 9,418 crore. Total expenses rose at a slower pace, increasing nearly 8% to Rs 7,829.17 crore.EBITDA for the quarter rose 24.4% year-on-year to Rs 1,787 crore from Rs 1,436.2 crore in the corresponding period last year. EBITDA margin expanded by more than 200 basis points to 19.3%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier. For the full financial year ended March 31, 2026, Asian Paints reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 4,325.35 crore, up 18% from Rs 3,667.23 crore recorded in the previous financial year. Annual revenue from operations rose around 5% year-on-year to Rs 35,583.54 crore in FY26.Asian Paints shares: Buy, sell or hold?Nomura raised its target price to Rs 3,600 (35% upside) while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting that the company not only retained but improved its guidance despite cumulative price hikes of around 13.5% year-to-date, including 10.5% implemented in April-May and a further 3% increase announced to dealers. The brokerage noted that management's decision to maintain volume growth guidance of 8-10% signals confidence in a strong demand environment. It also pointed to improved product mix guidance of -3% to -4%, compared with the earlier expectation of -5% to -6%, driven by a greater push towards premium and luxury paints, implying high-teens sales growth in FY27. The brokerage also maintained its operating margin guidance of 18-20% despite raw material inflation and competitive pressures. Nomura believes there is a high probability of crude oil prices moderating from current levels over the next six months, which could further support margins.Motilal Oswal maintained its Neutral rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,750, implying a modest upside of up to 3%. The brokerage raised its FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 3%-4%, citing better-than-expected revenue performance. However, it cautioned that the uncertain geopolitical environment and persistent inflationary pressures could continue to weigh on overall demand. Management has guided for high single-digit volume growth in FY27 despite significant price hikes, supported by a favourable base, more painting days due to El Niño conditions and an extended festive season. The brokerage expects standalone EBITDA margins of 19.1% and 19.5% for FY27 and FY28, respectively, while consolidated margins are projected at 18.2% and 18.6%. It also noted that paint demand has remained subdued over the past two years, and recent price increases could delay a broader demand recovery. To counter competitive pressures, Asian Paints continues to focus on product innovation, strengthening brand salience, regionalisation and execution.JM Financial upgraded Asian Paints to Add with a target price of Rs 2,815, implying an upside of 5.4%. The brokerage believes the company's FY27 revenue outlook remains encouraging, supported by management's volume growth guidance of 8-10%. Combined with double-digit price increases, including hikes of around 10.4% already implemented and an additional 2-4% announced from June, along with a lower adverse mix impact of 3-4%, this is expected to drive mid-teen sales growth in FY27. JM Financial noted that demand trends remained stable during April and May, while management remains optimistic about business momentum in the second and third quarters of FY27, aided by a longer festive season. Also read: PSU bank stocks vs private banks in FY27: The valuation trap you need to avoidThe brokerage also highlighted that management has reiterated its EBITDA margin guidance of 18-20% despite significant raw material inflation, supported by price hikes, sourcing efficiencies, an improved product mix and calibrated spending. However, the company expects competitive intensity in the paints sector to remain elevated. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Bearish move or buying opportunity? Geojit's Anand James on Nifty levels and top stocks to watch

Market volatility took center stage following a sharp late-Friday sell-off triggered by MSCI rebalancing and global cues. While cautious sentiment prevails, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, highlights critical Nifty support levels that could prevent further damage. In this exclusive interview, he breaks down the June series rollover data, IT sector resilience, and top stock picks.Edited excerpts from a chat:The sell-off seen in the last 30 minutes on Friday has scared traders as to what could be in the offing on Monday morning. What do you think?IMD’s below-normal monsoon forecast and uncertainty over US-Iran talks in the backdrop gave an ominous feel to the drop that unfolded towards Friday’s close. However, the steepness of the fall is apparently due to MSCI rebalancing, with futures and options segment appearing reluctant to match such move. Nevertheless the large red candle registered on Nifty’s chart needs to be acknowledged, and we will start the new week on a cautious note. That 23500 was defended, gives us reason to be optimistic, but slippage past the same, or inability to reclaim the 10 day SMA near 23750 will confirm bearishness calling for 22800.Nifty has been seeing profit booking at higher levels in last few weeks. What does the rollover data indicate for the June series?The rollover data for June series suggests a cautious to mildly negative undertone despite selective strength. Nifty’s rollover dropped to 69.98% in May, below the 3-month average of 73.05%, indicating reduced willingness to carry forward positions, likely reflecting profit booking at higher levels. Similarly, Bank Nifty rollover moderation points to some cooling in conviction within the heavyweight banking segment.Market breadth has weakened as well, with only 52% of stocks closing positive vs 91% in April, highlighting broader profit-taking pressure. While strong rollovers in select sectors like Oil & Gas, Metals, Power and Infra signal pockets of resilience, weakness in Pharma, Healthcare, and Transportation suggests lack of uniform participation.Although long buildup was visible in Telecom, Capital Goods, and Pharma, the early trend in June appears cautious. Importantly, banks-despite prior long build-up-have started the June series on a weak footing, with heavyweights like SBI and HDFC Bank under pressure, which could weigh on Nifty due to their high index weight.Nifty IT is showing signs of resilience even during sell-off. What are the charts indicating at?The Nifty IT index is showing early signs of a trend reversal after a prolonged corrective phase. On the daily chart, the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern suggests a base-building process, with prices currently hovering near the neckline zone around the 29,500-29,600 region. A sustained move above this level could confirm a breakout and trigger momentum towards higher resistances.On the higher timeframe, the weekly MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, indicating a potential shift from bearish to positive momentum. This aligns with improving price structure and supports the medium-term recovery thesis.From a longer-term perspective, the monthly candlestick is forming a pin bar Doji, typically seen near inflection points, highlighting rejection of lower levels around the 27,000-28,000 zone and signaling demand absorption.However, confirmation is key. Immediate support lies near 28,000, while a decisive breakout above the neckline could open upside towards 31,000-32,000. Failure to sustain above key resistance may keep the index range bound.HFCL was among the top gainers of the week. Do you see signs of the momentum continuing in the week ahead?Long wicked candle on Friday, with a close above upper bollinger band point to a mix of strong trending nature and emerging cautiousness. Oscillators appear reluctant, but are yet to confirm an impending collapse. With these in the backdrop, longs may be held on to, but ideally with a stop loss placed near 168.Natco Pharma fell 14% on Friday after weak Q4 results. Do you see signs of bottom-fishing emerging in the coming week?Yes. The single day red candle which has resulted in a break of structure, is likely to be followed by bottom fishing and a pull back rally that could extend 3-4%. However, we do not see enough signs to indicate that such pull back attempt could sustain.Give us your top ideas of the week. INDIANB (LTP: 833)View: BuyTarget: 930SL: 790 Indian Bank continues to maintain a structurally strong uptrend on the weekly chart, characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows since early 2024. The recent profit booking since April seems to have found a support near 800 healthy consolidation after a sharp rally, with the stock holding firmly above the 780-750 support zone, which now acts as a strong demand base.Despite the recent pullback from near 1000 levels, the correction appears time-wise rather than price-destructive, suggesting profit booking rather than trend reversal. The presence of a rising support trendline reinforces the bullish structure.Momentum indicators are cooling off from overbought levels, which is constructive in a trending market. The RSI is stabilising near the mid-zone, providing room for a fresh upside leg, while MACD is approaching levels where a potential bullish crossover on lower drawdown could emerge.SHYAMMETL (LTP: 973)View: BuyTarget: 1080SL: 930 Shyam Metalics is exhibiting a strong bullish breakout from a descending trendline on the weekly chart, indicating a potential resumption of the broader uptrend after a period of consolidation. Price has decisively moved above the 950-960 resistance zone, which also coincided with prior swing highs, adding conviction to the breakout.The structure reflects higher lows formation, suggesting steady accumulation. Momentum indicators are turning supportive with RSI trending upward above the mid-zone, while MACD has delivered a bullish crossover with rising histogram, reinforcing improving momentum. Weekly Supertrend breakout adds to positivity. Volume expansion near the breakout area further validates buyer participation and strengthens the breakout reliability. Additionally, price holding above short-term supports near 930 indicates a favorable risk-reward setup.As long as the stock sustains above the breakout zone, it is well-positioned to extend its upward move towards the 1080 target.

What's P2P Lending? Why Banks, RBI Are Watching This Credit Trend Closely

Most P2P investments remain locked in for a fixed tenure, making quick exits difficult.

Share of term deposits below 7% jumps as banks reprice liabilities

Mumbai: The share of bank term deposits earning less than 7% rose to 61.8% in fiscal 2025-26 from 27.3% a year earlier, signalling a repricing of liabilities following cumulative policy rate cuts of 125 basis points since February 2025, Reserve Bank of India data showed. Deposits with a tenure of up to one year fell to 8.8% from 16.7% over the same period, as depositors shifted towards longer maturities in search of better returns, the data showed.Deposits with a maturity of one to three years rose to 69.8% at end-March 2026 from 50.4% in March 2022, suggesting depositors increasingly locked in funds for medium tenures amid evolving rate expectations.The data also pointed to broader structural shifts in deposit composition, with the share of term deposits in overall deposits rising to 61.6% in March 2026 from 55.2% in March 2022, while the proportion of savings deposits declined to 28.7% from 34.6% in the same period.131431518Deposit growth accelerated to 11.5% year-on-year at end-March 2026 from 10.6% a year earlier, with public sector banks accounting for 50.8% of incremental deposits and private banks contributing 38.6%.Households remained the largest contributors, accounting for 59.3% of total deposits, even as the share of non-financial entities and financial corporations edged up, indicating gradual diversification in deposit sources.Large-value deposits continued to dominate, with term deposits of ₹1 crore and above accounting for 46.3% of the total. Deposits of ₹5 crore and above alone made up 34.8%, while deposits of up to ₹5 lakh accounted for 17.8%.The share of senior citizens in deposits stood at 20% and has remained broadly stable over the past four years, the central bank data showed.

A 3,000-km-away fire may scorch Indian banks' books

June 2026 bank holidays: When and where will banks remain closed? Check state-wise list

Planning a bank visit in June requires checking the holiday list as branches in several states will be closed on specific dates for festivals like YMA Day, Raja Sankranti, Moharrum, and Muharram. Additionally, banks observe closures on the second and fourth Saturdays of each month, impacting physical branch operations.