๐ฎ๐ณ ์ธ๋ ยท "LEVEL" ยท ์ด 144๊ฑด
ํํฐ ๋ณด๊ธฐํ์ฌ ์ง์
50.0
0 = ๋ถ์ ์ฐ์ธ
50 = ์ค๋ฆฝ
100 = ๊ธ์ ์ฐ์ธ
์ต๊ทผ 7์ผ ๊ธฐ์ค 5,542๊ฑด์ ๋ถ์ํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ๋ด์ค ์ฌ๋ฆฌ์ง์๋ 50.0(๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค. ๊ธ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)ยท์ค๋ฆฝ 5,542๊ฑด(100.0%)ยท๋ถ์ 0๊ฑด(0.0%)์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ค๋ฆฝ ๋น์ค์ด ๋๋ ทํ๊ฒ ๋์ต๋๋ค. ์ฑํฅ ์ง์๋ ์ข ํฉ 0.0(์ค๋ ๊ท ํ)์ ๋๋ค.
The Union finance ministry predicts a slow return to pre-conflict trade levels by late 2026, despite normalizing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Mumbai: It is India's fourth biggest company by revenue, but the managing director of precious metals trader Rajesh Exports (REL) apparently doesn't know how and from where it gets the biggest chunk of the revenue, show the findings of a regulatory investigation.In its investigation report, the Securities and Exchange Board of India observed allegedly unscrupulous activities by REL's promoters, such as accounting irregularities and siphoning off of company funds into personal accounts, and also pointed out lapses by its auditors. The regulator said the company and its auditors were non-cooperative."The acts of REL constitute a deliberate device, scheme and artifice to mislead and defraud investors dealing in the shares of REL by portraying an inflated and misleading picture of its operational scale, revenue and financial health," Sebi observed in its report.The company, eponymously named after its chairman Rajesh Mehta, is accused of committing an elaborate financial fraud that includes dressing-up of revenues of โน15.15 lakh crore over the years, personal gold trades covered up as corporate sales and phoney gold mine investments of โน1,035 crore, according to the interim report.REL denied the charges of misdeeds. In a press release Thursday, the company said the revenues stated in its financials were correct and that the confusion arose because of a mix-up between Ebitda and revenue numbers at Swiss refiner Valcambi SA, an indirect subsidiary.Sebi has not made any adverse observation with regard to earnings, the company said, claiming that the regulator has only observed suspicion with regard to revenues which was primarily because of confusion over the Valcambi numbers.Numbers don't add upIn fiscal 2025, REL reported consolidated revenue of โน4.23 lakh crore against a profit after tax of just โน95 crore, translating into a net margin of barely 0.02%. The year before, on โน2.8 lakh crore revenue, profit was โน336 crore.Experts who have studied the Sebi report and the company's annual reports say the numbers did not add up. The business appeared to be operating at margins that were not merely thin but structurally negligible, they said."It looks like a case of pass-through accounting. There is no value creation. It was 'flow of gold' being booked as revenue," said a leading auditor on the condition of anonymity.Sebi, which began the investigations in March 2024 following a shareholder complaint about suspected accounting malpractices, said it found that about 97-99% of REL's consolidated revenues were attributed to its overseas subsidiaries, principally Valcambi. But Valcambi's own accounts, audited by KPMG SA, recorded only processing fees that were about โน3,027 crore across five years.Valcambi refined gold on behalf of clients and never took ownership of the precious metal or recognised the value of gold as revenue in its books. Yet, Global Gold Refineries AG (GGR), the parent of Valcambi that had no independent operating business, recorded gross revenues running into hundreds of crores by including the gross value of gold that actually belonged to others, according to the Sebi report.Rajesh Exports, which owns GGR through a Singapore subsidiary, used those unaudited figures in its financial statements, significantly bumping up the company's revenue, it said.In its press release, REL said: "The core observation in the order is with regard to the misreporting of the revenues. This has emerged primarily due to confusion because Sebi has considered the Ebitda of Valcambi instead of revenue hence it has stated that there is a difference of about 97% in the revenue.""There is no reason for any listed entity to inflate revenue and maintain the earnings, this will only reduce the margins of the company, which would be adverse to the company," it said.Senior management in the darkThe senior management of REL told regulators that most of them were in the dark about the company's overseas operations and only the promoter, Rajesh Mehta, dealt with those activities."Valcambi SA does not have any gold mine on its own," managing director Suresh Gowda was quoted in the Sebi order as saying. "It refines the raw gold purchased by it from various entities, whose names I do not recollect, as these things are exclusively handled by Rajesh Mehta, chairman of REL. I have never interacted nor involved with any subsidiary/step-down subsidiary of REL, as these were exclusively taken care of by Rajesh Mehta," he told the investigators, as per the order.According to the report, REL booked โน11,487 crore in sales between 2021-22 and 2023-24 to Affluence Shares and Stocks, a broker that made up to 66% of the company's standalone revenue for that period. But Affluence, in formal depositions to the regulator, said it had not done any business with REL.Following the transaction trail, the investigators found out that the transactions were personal gold derivative trades executed by promoter Mehta using his own brokerage account and then recorded in the company's books as corporate sales, the order said.The investigators also found that Mehta used corporate funds. As per the Sebi observations, bank records show REL transferred โน338.90 crore directly into Mehta's personal accounts between April 2020 and September 2025.Unlike in the case of Nirav Modi or Gitanjali Gems, who are accused of bank fraud, Rajesh Exports doesn't appear to have borrowed big from banks or through sale of bonds, according to regulatory filings.The company's market cap was just over โน3,000 crore, as per Thursday's closing share price. LIC (10.8%) and Bridge India Fund (8.46%) are its major institutional shareholders."It is striking that, even at a peak market capitalisation of โน25,000 crore, the company did not hold any analyst calls, a basic expectation for a listed company of that scale," said Shriram Subramanian, founder and managing director of InGovern Research Services, a corporate governance advisory firm.The regulator in 2024 hired BDO India Services to investigate. But the forensic audit faced problems at almost every stage of the investigation. It was denied access to ERP systems and was not provided a complete journal dump, preventing independent verification of transactions recorded in the books, according to the regulatory report.And the company declined to share subsidiary-level records with the investigator, citing Swiss data protection laws, limiting auditors largely to reviewing financial statements prepared by the management itself rather than underlying evidence, it said.What's also come under the scanner was the conduct of statutory auditors for the last few years: CA PV Ramana Reddy, the proprietor at PV Ramana Reddy & Co, and CA PL Venkatadri, partner at BSD & Co.The company's FY24 and FY25 annual reports, filed with the stock exchanges, carry an unqualified opinion from BSD & Co, which concluded that the financial statements presented a "true and fair view" in line with Indian Accounting Standards.The company's FY24 Directors' Report noted that the statutory and secretarial auditors had made no qualifications, reservations or adverse remarks.The Sebi report said for over five months, the auditors sat on the regulator's request for missing documents and statements.Emails sent to both audit firms did not elicit any response.REL closed 5% lower at โน103.92 Thursday on the NSE. The shares are down from their peak of โน1,028.40 on February 6, 2023.
Mumbai: Global investors continued to pare equity stake in the financial services sector in the second half of May, however the pace of selling came off.Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) sold shares worth โน5,181 crore from the sector in the period, significantly lower than the outflow of โน17,000 crore in first half of the month, according to the data from NSDL. Between January and March, global investors pulled out shares worth over โน60,000 crore from the sector."Banking stocks offered foreign investors an easy exit from India by virtue of being highly liquid," said U R Bhat, co-founder & director, Alphaniti. "Despite the sell-off, the sector has fared well, barring a few specific exceptions. Now investors are reducing exposure in other sectors."Bank Nifty fell 1% over the past one month compared with a 2.9% drop in the benchmark Nifty 50."Global investors toned down the selling in the banking and financial services sector and bought selectively- mostly smaller banks instead of the large caps which is why the pace of outflows moderated," said Sonam Srivastava, founder and CEO, Wright Research. Overseas investors sold shares worth โน14,621 crore across 13 sectors in the second half of May, after withdrawing โน38,443 crore across 19 sectors in the first half of the month.131518952FPIs have continued the selling spree in the current calendar year, offloading equities worth โน2.6 lakh crore up till June 03. This exceeds their outflow of โน1.7 lakh crore in the whole of 2025. A sustained selling pressure has intensified this year due to AI disruption and inflationary pressure on account of elevated oil prices given the US-Iran war. In addition, the net outflow of โน1.3 lakh crore in FY27 so far exceeds the net investment of โน84,132 crore by FPIs since FY17. The cumulative net foreign investment in Indian equities dropped to the lowest level in 12 years to โน7.1 lakh crore in FY27.In the second half of May, automobiles and oil and gas sectors reported worth over โน2,000 crore. On May 29, The MSCI rebalancing led to outflows worth โน8,000-8,500 crore which also factored in the outflows for this fortnight. "Changes in the MSCI Index shifts the composition of not just index funds that mimic the index but also weighs on decisions of other funds,who largely use MSCI indices as benchmarks" said Bhat.Among sectors that reported net inflows in the second half of May, metals attracted nearly 60% of the inflows -the highest foreign inflows worth โน4,999 crore for the period. The sector witnessed inflows worth over โน6,500 crore in May.
Northern India reported the highest storage level at 38.79 per cent of total capacity
Party to conduct State tour for three months to study problems at grass root level
This follows the recommendations proposed by a three-member panel appointed by the Directorate of Medical Education to inquire into the allegations levelled by the 12 PG students
The 34 Ministers would coordinate with District Collectors and other district-level officials to expedite ongoing projects, ensure the delivery of welfare schemes, and carry out relief work during disasters.
India is bolstering energy ties with Venezuela, now its third-largest crude supplier, to diversify imports amidst West Asia disruptions. Discussions also explored broader economic cooperation in sectors like mining, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, with Venezuela viewing India as a stable, long-term partner. High-level delegations are examining investment opportunities.
HDFC Mutual Fund has restricted lumpsum investments in its gold ETF and fund of fund - HDFC Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF Fund of Fund with effect from June 8 and June 5 respectively.The fund house informed its unitholders that it has decided to temporarily restrict lumpsum subscriptions in HDFC Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF Fund of Fund until further notice.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: India could unlock a $5 trillion export opportunity through FTAs, says Saurabh Mukherjea In HDFC Gold ETF, subscription transactions by large investors directly with HDFC Mutual Fund (i.e. investing minimum Rs 25 crore) shall not be accepted from the effective date. In HDFC Gold ETF FoF, lumpsum purchases /switch-ins into the FOF shall be processed only upto a limit of Rs 10 lakh per PAN per calendar month (at first holder level). This limit shall apply in respect of transactions received after cut-off time (3:00 PM) on June 5.It further said that all other terms and conditions of the schemes will remain unchanged. This addendum shall form an integral part of the SID / KIM of the schemes as amended from time to time.Launched on December 28, 2022, HDFC Gold ETF had an AUM of Rs 69.72 crore as of April 30, 2026. In the last one year, the fund lost 4.01% and since its inception it has given a CAGR of 8.27%.Also Read | ET Alpha Wealth Summit: Future alpha may emerge from neglected markets and asset classes, says Kalpen Parekh HDFC Gold ETF FoF was launched on November 1, 2011 and had an AUM of Rs 11,464 crore as of April 30. In the last one year, it gave a return of 57.05% and since its inception it has given a return of 11%.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)If you have any mutual fund queries, message on ET Mutual Funds on Facebook/Twitter. We will get it answered by our panel of experts. Do share your questions on ETMFqueries@timesinternet.in alongwith your age, risk profile, and Twitter handle.
As geopolitical headwinds make it tougher for equity investors to make money, Dalal Streetโs top voice Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, told a gathering of HNI investors at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit on Thursday that there are four specific investment structures which deserve a place in most portfolios right now.Shahโs first recommendation was the Special Investment Fund, or SIF, a structure that marks a meaningful shift in what is available to Indian investors. Shah noted that the mutual fund industry has, until now, been a long-only business but the SIF changes that. These are long-short, absolute return-oriented funds, designed to generate returns regardless of market direction rather than simply riding the equity tide.The second vehicle Shah flagged is performing credit AIFs. His reasoning was grounded in a simple supply-demand observation that for corporate settlements today, capital is not available from banks, mutual funds, or insurance companies.As institutional lenders have stepped back, borrowers are plenty and lenders very few. Amid this imbalance, Shah said the need is real and returns are attractive. Performing credit AIFs, which lend into this gap, are positioned to benefit directly from the scarcity of competing capital.https://youtube.com/shorts/Xa4AcXFg8hA?feature=shareThe third idea was REITs, and here Shah introduced a timing element. Over the last three years, REITs have delivered index-level returns of around 13.5%. But with interest rates rising, he suggested that the next six to nine months may present an opportunity to enter at better prices. Rising rates typically compress REIT valuations in the near term, and Shah framed any such correction as a potential entry point rather than a risk to avoid. Beyond the return potential, he positioned REITs as a portfolio diversification tool as the asset class behaves differently from equities and fixed income, and that is still underrepresented in most Indian investor portfolios.The fourth recommendation addressed global diversification but came with an important caveat. Mutual fund industry limits for overseas investment are currently full, which means the conventional route for Indian investors to access global markets through domestic mutual funds is closed. Shah pointed to Gift City as the workaround. Structures domiciled there allow investment under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, and in his view, these Gift City-based LRS products are the practical path for investors who want global exposure while the mutual fund window remains shut.Across all four โ the SIF, performing credit AIFs, REITs, and Gift City products โ Shah's underlying argument was the same: in a volatile period, the portfolio needs instruments that can generate positive returns through means other than a rising equity market.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
The Indian stock market closed nearly flat, with Sensex and Nifty ending the session in the green with marginal gains after seeing sharp upswings and downswings during the day.Sensex rose nearly 14 points to close at 74,360, while Nifty 50 rose around 11 points to end the session at 23,417, nearly unchanged from the previous session. This came as India VIX, which measures volatility in markets, fell over 3% to 15.77.Titan shares jumped 4% to lead gains on Sensex, while Zomato-parent Eternal jumped 3% to follow. ITC, Tech Mahindra, SBI, Bharat Electronics and ICICI Bank shares meanwhile gained around 1% each. On the other hand, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports and Tata Steel shares dropped around 15 each.Broader markets closed with higher gains, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices gaining around 0.5% each. Sectorally, Nifty Consumer Durables rallied more than 2%, while Nifty Metal declined 0.7%. Around 1,817 stocks advanced on NSE, while 1,474 declined and 105 remained unchanged.Rupee watchNotably, investors now await the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Indiaโs Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) meeting tomorrow. Meanwhile, rupee closed at 95.7850 per U.S. dollar, from 95.7050 on Wednesday.FIIs net sold Indian shares worth Rs 5,617 crore on Wednesday, according to data on NSE. They have net sold Indian equities worth more than Rs 39,625 crore in just four consecutive sessions.India may scrap capital gains tax on FPI investments in govt securitiesThe Indian government is planning to scrap capital gains tax on investments in government securities by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), a move which will likely shore up overseas capital inflows into the country, The Economic Times reported citing people familiar with the matter.The Cabinet, in a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday, approved the promulgation of an ordinance to amend the Income Tax Act to pave the way for this exemption, sources further told The Economic Times, adding that a notification is expected soon after the President gives her assent to the ordinance.What lies ahead?On Thursday, the benchmark index Nifty opened with a gap-down. However, the index staged a recovery from lower levels and eventually closed on a flat note. Notably, this marked the third consecutive session where Nifty found support near its prior swing low and rebounded thereafter, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. He however added that a sustained follow-up move on the upside is still required to confirm a potential reversal.โAt present, the index continues to trade below its key moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest a sideways trend. The daily RSI has been oscillating within a narrow range for the last 40 trading sessions, in line with the RSI range shift rules, indicating lack of directional strength,โ he said.Going ahead, Shah expects the 23,550โ23,580 zone to act as an important hurdle for Nifty 50.. A sustained move above the 23,580 level could trigger an extension of the ongoing pullback rally, potentially paving the way towards the 23,700 mark, he said. On the downside, he sees 23,330โ23,320 zone as likely to serve as a crucial support area.(With inputs from agencies)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Russia has publicly acknowledged a dip in oil production due to unscheduled refinery repairs, marking the first such admission. This comes amid intensified Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure, which have disrupted operations and pushed Moscow to increase crude exports. Despite these challenges, Russia aims to maximize exports and restore previous production levels.
Traders in Reliance Industries Ltd.โs treasury department are strategizing over where to park the companyโs cash in case the Reserve Bank of India starts raising interest rates in the coming months.One proposal involves moving Relianceโs cash holdings from liquid mutual funds into short-dated money market instruments, people aware of the conglomerateโs thinking said. The switch may pay off because the yield spread between money-market papers and the benchmark rate has widened beyond its five-year average and is likely to narrow in the coming months, resulting in capital gains, the people said, asking not to be named as the information is private. Markets are currently expecting about 50 basis points of rate hikes this year, they said.Traders also mulled reducing allocation to longer-dated bonds, which tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate changes, the people said.The strategy discussion cited market expectations and the conglomerate didnโt take an explicit view on interest rates. Treasury departments typically consider a range of market scenarios when evaluating trading strategies.โWe categorically deny the information you have provided in your email regarding our opinion on interest rates and the behaviour of the rupee,โ a Reliance spokesperson said by email.131502003India's Overnight Swaps Reflect RBI Rate HikesThe view carries weight because Reliance runs one of the largest corporate treasuries in India. The discussion also come ahead of the Reserve Bank of Indiaโs rate decision on Friday, where the central bank is expected to announce measures to support the rupee.While most economists โ 29 out of 35 โ surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the authority to keep the benchmark rate unchanged, they see the RBI adopting a hawkish stance to prepare markets for potential rate hikes later this year amid inflation pressures triggered by an oil price shock.Indiaโs sovereign bond yields have remained broadly stable this quarter even as the rupee has slid to record lows. The currency has recovered in recent days, helped by RBI intervention and optimism that a US and Iran agreement may lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for the countryโs energy imports.The rupee is down 6% this year and recently approached a record low of 97 per dollar. It has been hovering around 95-96 levels in recent days.Relianceโs traders expect the rupee to strengthen if a Middle East peace deal is reached and if the RBI takes measures to attract capital inflows, one of the people said. They have proposed that the owner of worldโs largest oil-refining complex partly hedge its long-term forward contract positions as well as coupon payments dues in fiscal year starting March 2028, the person said.
Kolkata: West Bengal government has signed an MoU on Thursday with Adani Ports in the presence of Adani Ports & SEZ MD Karan Adani, people in the know told ET.West Bengal Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari on Wednesday held meeting with Managing Director of Adani Ports & SEZ Karan Adani on Power, Logistics and infrastructure at Nabanna state secretariat, sources said.Also Read: West Bengal government holds pre-budget talks with industry bodies'The Chief Minister has reportedly assured that all support will be provided to the Adanis if they invest in West Bengal and they can choose the project site, people in the know told ET.Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani, at the BGBS summit 2022, had promised an investment of Rs 10,000 crore in the state in sectors of port infrastructure, data centres and undersea cables, warehouses and logistics parks. Adani Ports and SEZ was in the fray for Tajpur port for more than a year.Group ran into rough weather following the January 24 report of the US short-seller Hindenberg Research flagged high debt levels at the port-to-energy conglomerate. The state government was silent on the Tajpur port project all through.
International brokerage firm Jefferies started coverage on Poonawalla Fincorp with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 490, implying an upside of 23% from current market levels, citing positive levers of growth. Jefferies says the company is well positioned to accelerate growth under its revamped leadership team, expanding product portfolio, wider distribution network and sharper underwriting practices. The brokerage expects the company to deliver a 33% AUM CAGR, the fastest among major NBFCs, supported by an improving loan mix, better net interest margins and lower credit costs driven by reduced slippages and a healthier portfolio mix. Analysts also forecast a sharp improvement in profitability, with RoA/RoE expected to expand to 16% by FY29 from 6% in FY26, which it believes should support the stock's premium valuation multiples. The brokerage cited the company's ongoing strategic transformation under CEO Arvind Kapil, former head of retail and mortgage banking at HDFC Bank as a positive. The brokerage highlighted the leadership overhaul, with seven of nine CXOs coming from HDFC Bank, alongside the launch of six new products including prime personal loans, commercial vehicle loans, gold loans and education loans. These new segments have already scaled to 14% of AUM within a year and are expected to contribute 34% of AUM over time. Jefferies expects the company to deliver a 33% AUM CAGR during FY26-29, supported by investments in distribution, collections, technology and AI, as well as its AAA credit rating and backing from the Adar Poonawalla Group.The brokerage expects margins to improve as the company shifts toward higher-yielding products. After contracting by 250 basis points over the past two years due to the run-down of its legacy personal loan portfolio, NIMs are projected to expand by around 70 basis points over FY26-29, aided by growth in products such as prime personal loans and gold loans. At the same time, Jefferies expects cost-to-AUM to improve to 3.9% by FY29 from 4.4% in FY26 on the back of operating leverage.Asset quality trends have also strengthened, with gross NPAs declining to 1.4% from 1.8% in FY25, supported by tighter underwriting and the reduction of the stressed legacy personal loan book. Jefferies noted that delinquency levels in loans originated after September 2024 are running about 50% lower than the previous 12-month cohort. It expects credit costs to moderate to 2.2% over FY26-29 from 2.7% in FY26, driven by better portfolio quality and a growing share of lower-risk products such as gold and education loans.Following a Rs 2,500 crore capital raise in April 2026, the company's Tier-1 capital ratio has risen above 19.5%, providing ample room to fund growth. Jefferies forecasts profit after tax to surge to Rs 2,900 crore by FY29 from Rs 540 crore in FY26, while return on assets and return on equity are expected to improve to 2.3% and 16%, respectively, from 1.1% and 6% in FY26. Despite trading at 2.4x FY27 estimated book value and 25x FY27 estimated earnings, the brokerage believes Poonawalla Fincorp's strong growth trajectory and improving profitability justify premium valuations and could support further re-rating if execution remains robust. Key risks include weaker-than-expected execution, margin pressure and higher credit stress.In Thursdayโs session, shares of the company are down 1.5% to Rs 394 on the BSE. Poonawala Fincorp shares are down 18% in 2026. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Indian rupee is trading around Rs. 95-96 to the dollar in late May 2026, setting fresh record lows. Markets are openly discussing the Rs. 100 threshold. The rupee has weakened in almost every year since 2014 and has lost approximately half its value against the dollar over that period. The end of this currency depreciation is not in sight. The factors that would stop it are not yet visible.The government is acting. State run oil companies have implemented four fuel price hikes in ten days as of May 25, taking petrol in Delhi past Rs. 102 per litre. This is the right and necessary response to the energy cost reality created by the Iran war. Crucially, the Modi government has also done its part on the macroeconomic front, consistently and aggressively reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to maintain structural stability.Yet, the currency pressure persists. The energy price impact has not yet fully reached Indian consumers and supply chains. It is coming.Uday Kotak said it plainly at the CII Annual Business Summit on May 12: "Be ready for tough times rather than waiting for the shock to hit us." He was right.Also read | Manufactured monopoly: How industrial policy is structuring monopolies in IndiaThis is not a time to panic. But it is a time to act. The leaders who move now will have options. Those who wait will not.The Overriding Factor: The Psychology of the PlayersWhy is the currency declining despite strong domestic fiscal discipline? Because exchange rates are not driven by mathematical models alone. The currency decline is highly affectedโand acceleratedโby the psychology of all players engaged in this endeavor.Currency movements are deeply behavioral. When a currency visualizes a downward trend, psychology shifts from calculation to self-protection and speculation. Every player in the ecosystem operates under this psychological weight:Corporate CFOs and Treasurers: Instead of hedging normally, they rush to cover future dollar liabilities early, hoarding hard currency and inadvertently worsening the scarcity.Foreign Investors: They begin to judge their returns not by the quality of Indian business operations, but by the eroding value of the conversion rate.Importers and Exporters: Importers advance their payments to avoid paying more tomorrow; exporters delay converting their dollar earnings back into rupees, waiting for a "better" rate. This collective psychology creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.Investors, CFOs, and FDI decision makers extrapolate what is happening now into the future. When they see a currency that has lost approximately half its value since 2014 with no clear floor in sight, their psychological pivot alters market realities.Also read | India tightens checks on overseas flows as currency pressure mounts, sources sayThe cascading timeline of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) equity behavior perfectly mirrors this psychological shift from rational evaluation to systemic risk aversion:2024 (The Calculation Phase): Rupee averages Rs. 83-84. FPI flows remain positive (+$12 billion) as investors trade on strong domestic corporate earnings.2025 (The Self-Protection Phase): Rupee slides past Rs. 89. Collective psychology shifts to risk mitigation. FPIs withdraw a record $18.4 billion from Indian equitiesโthe largest annual equity outflow on record.Early 2026 (The Capitulation Phase): Rupee breaks past Rs. 95. Sentiment turns into an outright exit strategy. In the first four months of 2026 alone, outflows have already reached $19.1 billion, completely bypassing the entire previous year's record loss in a fraction of the time.FDI agreements are being signed, but capital is delayed because players are psychologically hesitant to deploy funds into a depreciating asset.The Trap of Hard Currency Debt: A Broken Business Model There is a highly significant and dangerous phenomenon unfolding in India today that requires immediate exposure. For years, a specific class of Indian corporates adopted a regular strategy of borrowing heavily in hard currency (External Commercial Borrowings, or ECBs). Lured by low nominal global interest rates, several of these companies over borrowed, treating cheap dollar debt as a permanent structural advantage.Today, that strategy has become a trap. The compounding effect of a depreciating rupee, skyrocketing hedging costs, and brutal refinancing realities is fundamentally breaking their business models.Consider the mechanics of this crisis:The Hedging Penalty: Leaving dollar debt unhedged is now corporate roulette. However, buying hedges at current rupee levels has become structurally prohibitive. The cost of protection completely wipes out any interest rate advantage.The Refinancing Wall: Billions in foreign debt are coming due. These over-borrowed companies must now refinance their liabilities at a time when the rupee value has materially deteriorated. They are effectively forced to borrow far more rupees just to pay back the same amount of original dollars.The Crushing Cost of Rupee Capital: As these companies try to pivot back to domestic lenders, they face a severe escalation in their rupee cost of capital.The Growth Verdict: When your cost of capital spikes and your cash flows are consumed by servicing legacy dollar debt, future growth stops. Capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are being frozen. These companies can no longer invest in innovation, capacity, or market expansion. Their business model shifts overnight from aggressive value creation to basic survival. Boards must realize that this is not a temporary treasury headache; it is a structural threat to the companyโs future viability.India's forex reserves stand at approximately 10 to 11 months of import cover. Substantial, but being actively deployed to defend the currency. Some imports are non-negotiable: oil, critical inputs, components. These will now cost more. That cost passes through every supply chain.Six Actions for Business Leaders1. Protect your cash and liquidity first. This is the most immediate priority. Map your cash position today. Identify every source of liquidity across the next twelve months. Stress-test it at Rs. 100 and beyond. Which receivables are at risk? Which credit lines are rupee-denominated and which are not? Companies that run into a cash crisis during a currency depreciation cycle lose their options entirely. The CFO must own this analysis and present it to the board within days, not weeks.2. Act now on your foreign currency borrowings, hedging, and refinancing. Do not assume the rupee will recover to Rs. 80. Analyse your full foreign currency exposure across the next three years: every loan, every refinancing date, every hedging contract, every procurement price denominated in foreign currency. Hard currency loans now face refinancing at rupee values that have materially deteriorated. Model every scenario at Rs. 100 and beyond. Your CFO, treasury, and procurement team must be aligned on one instruction: do not run into a liquidity crisis. This analysis must happen now, not at the next quarterly review.3. Build a war room. Most companies have begun thinking about war rooms for supply chain disruptions. Expand the mandate. Currency exposure belongs in the same room. Which of your costs are dollar or euro denominated? Which of your revenues are rupee denominated? Where is the mismatch? What is your break-even exchange rate? If you do not have clear answers today, you are exposed. The war room is not a committee. It is a real-time decision environment with live data, a clear owner, and the authority to act.4. Use the currency depreciation advantage: double your export salesforce. A weaker rupee makes Indian exports more competitive. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Double the salesforce in your export markets now. Use this period to upgrade quality, improve service delivery, and build customer relationships that will last beyond the currency advantage. Indian exporters who invest in capability during this period will emerge stronger regardless of what the rupee does next. Those who simply ride the price advantage without building the underlying business will lose when conditions change.5. Watch your stock and your sector. Banks and financial institutions should already be on high alert. Companies with large foreign currency exposure will see pressure on their financials. Some stock prices are already reflecting this. Go through your sector company by company. Identify who is most exposed. If you are an investor or a lender, this analysis is not optional. The combination of currency depreciation, rising oil prices, and FPI outflows creates a compounding pressure that will surface in earnings before it surfaces in headlines.6. Cut costs aggressively. AI will help. There has never been more urgency to reduce costs than now. And there has never been a better tool to do it. AI can cut most operational costs by as much as 30% across functions: procurement, finance, customer service, logistics, and compliance. McKinsey data confirms companies adopting AI and automation reduce operational costs by 20 to 30 percent. This is not a future opportunity. It is a present imperative. Every rupee of cost removed through AI is a rupee that does not need to be recovered through revenue in a deteriorating currency environment. Start now with your highest-cost functions.The CFO as CaptainCurrency risk is a cash flow risk. Every function that touches foreign currencyโprocurement, treasury, sales, capex planningโ must now report into a single coordinating authority. That authority is the CFO. This is not about hierarchy. It is about clarity. In a currency crisis, fragmented decision-making is as dangerous as wrong decision making. One captain. One consolidated view. Weekly reviews minimum.The Bigger PictureThis currency depreciation is a structural signal, not a cyclical one. India's economy must move from a cheap labour advantage to genuine global value creation.The companies that will survive and thrive are those building products and services that command premium prices in global markets. The rupee's weakness is a reminder that competing on cost alone has limits.The recently concluded trade agreements are a genuine opportunity. Execute them with full force. Build the export pipelines. Add the sales capacity.The businesses that move now, with discipline and clarity, will manage market psychology, navigate the debt trap, and define the next chapter of Indian industry.The shock is coming. Prepare before it arrives.Ram Charan is the author of Chinaโs 90% model. It is restricting Indiaโs industrial progress. Former Director of Hindalco and Muyuan (China).
The transfer of the CBSEโs top leadership has failed to address the issue of accountability at the highest levels of the Education Ministry, Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh says
Karnataka's new Chief Minister DK Shivakumar has launched significant welfare and youth-focused initiatives. These include free bus passes for students from school to postgraduate levels and the establishment of 10,000 youth clubs with Rs 10 lakh each for sports, culture, and leadership. A private employment exchange will also be set up to aid job seekers.
The scheme will be funded through the National Capital Region Planning Board (NCRPB) under the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA).
The Deputy Commissioner was chairing a review meeting of district-level officers in Yadgir