WFPโs Integrated Cross-Cutting Context Analysis and Risk Assessment in Ukraine (April 2026)
Country: Ukraine Sources: Voluntas, World Food Programme Please refer to the attached file. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background As Ukraine enters the fifth year of the full-scale invasion, the country remains heavily affected y ongoing hostilities. As of early 2025, 3.7 million people remain internally displaced, 6.9 million are refugees abroad, and over 40,838 civilian casualties have been recorded.1 The impact is most severe in frontline oblasts such as Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia.2 Continued displacement has deepened poverty, strained social protection systems, and disrupted livelihoods; particularly in rural and conflict-affected areas, where unemployment remains high.3 Social transfers, including pensions and targeted assistance to displaced people, have played a crucial role in preventing further hardship, but coverage may not be reaching hard-to-reach groups such as people without documentation, and hidden groups like Roma communities, LGBTQIA+ individuals, and people living with HIV/AIDS, or men avoiding military conscription.4 The psychological toll of the prolonged conflict is also g owing, with 63 percent of households reporting mental health challenges related to ongoing uncertainty and displacement.5 According to Ukraineโs 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, 12.7 million people in Ukraine are in need of assistance. Among them, 45 percent are women, 30 percent are older people (60+ years old), 15 percent are children, and 14 percent have disabilities. Within this context, the humanitarian aid landscape is shifting due to funding constraints and a gradual transition from emergency relief to resilience-building efforts 7 Emergency assistance is increasingly concentrated in frontline and war-affected oblasts, while support in cent al and western Ukraine is being scaled back as international organizations shift their strategies away from short-term emergency aid toward resilience- and development-oriented programming in areas perceived as more stable.8 However, humanitarian actors have raised concerns that this shift may create gaps in assistance for vulnerable populations who continue to depend on support in these more stable areas where aid is being scaled back. As operations become more localized, humanitarian actors have also expressed concerns about the capacity of Ukraineโs social security system to take over responsibilities currently handled by international organizations . This is largely due to budget pressures, a shortage of qualified personnel, particularly in social services, and the destruction of essential facilities caused by missile strikes.9 Concerns have also been raised about the long-term sustainability of aid delivery, particularly as the war drags on and humanitarian needs continue to grow. Local organizations also worry that cross-cutting aspects of humanitarian work โ such as gender equality, accountability to affected people, the prevention of sexual exploitation and abuse, and disability inclusion โ may be deprioritized amid international funding cuts, due to limited capacity and competing government priorities. As Ukraine navigates these ongoing challenges, a balanced approach between emergency response and long-term resilience-building is essential to ensure that basic needs are met, social tensions between recipients and non-recipients of aid are minimized, and economic recovery is supported.