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In 2024, when Jiangsu Delong, the world’s second-largest stainless-steel producer, filed for bankruptcy, several Chinese firms and state-owned enterprises quietly absorbed its Indonesian assets. Among them was China First Heavy Industries, a state-owned enterprise founded in 1954 as one of China’s early Soviet-backed industrial projects. Today, China First Heavy Industries supplies military-grade metals to China’s military, including reactor vessels for nuclear submarines. For a manufacturer embedded deeply in China’s naval industrial base, securing nickel feedstock for specialty steels is crucial.The episode reveals China’s strategy for critical minerals: Incentivizing access to upstream assets for Chinese firms reduces the risk of supply The post Control Without Ownership: How China’s Party-Business Networks Dominate Indonesia’s Mineral Supply Chains appeared first on War on the Rocks.

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Machine Overmatch: What Salt Typhoon Reveals About China’s Data-Centric Intelligence Strategy

What if the next decisive intelligence advantage isn’t a recruited insider but a nation’s ability to model entire societies from its digital exhaust? Salt Typhoon’s multi-year cyber campaigns against U.S. telecommunications networks and critical infrastructure demonstrate China’s unparalleled focus on data-centric espionage: collect widely, analyze fast, and operationalize at scale — alongside continued investments in traditional intelligence disciplines. This approach reshapes how the United States has conventionally thought about intelligence advantage. From Exquisite to ExhaustFor decades, the U.S. intelligence community has prized what analysts call “exquisite” intelligence: narrowly sourced, high-confidence insight into adversary intent. That model depends on scarcity — secrets The post Machine Overmatch: What Salt Typhoon Reveals About China’s Data-Centric Intelligence Strategy appeared first on War on the Rocks.

Maximalist Demands, Victory Day, and a Summit

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranA month after negotiators met for historic high-level talks in Pakistan, Washington and Tehran seem closer to a breakdown of the ceasefire that U.S. President Donald Trump announced on April 7 than a breakthrough. In addition to its blockade of Iranian shipping, the United States has been stepping up sanctions against Iran as part of “Economic Fury,” announcing several tranches of designations in recent days targeting its oil trade and banking networks. The toll on The post Maximalist Demands, Victory Day, and a Summit appeared first on War on the Rocks.

What Does SOUTHCOM’s New Autonomous Warfare Command Herald?

Gen. Frank Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, sat down with Ryan to discuss the vision behind the command’s new Autonomous Warfare Command and what it signals for the future of military operations in the Western Hemisphere. Donovan explains how SOUTHCOM aims to move drones and autonomous systems beyond tactical experimentation and connect them to strategic effect: disrupting cartel networks designated as terrorist organizations, strengthening cooperation with allies and partners, and giving the command new ways to see, decide, and act across a complex region. This episode was brought to you by NODA. Find out more about our friends at The post What Does SOUTHCOM’s New Autonomous Warfare Command Herald? appeared first on War on the Rocks.

Abandoned and Ungoverned: Lebanon’s Palestinian and Syrian Populations and the Emerging Radicalization Landscape

Inside Lebanon, the conditions for the next extremist uprising are quietly taking root.In the summer of 2007, the Lebanese Armed Forces fought Fatah al-Islam for three months inside Nahr al-Bared, a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon. Fatah al-Islam was a Salafi-jihadist group that exploited the camp’s power vacuum to establish a strong recruitment base, drawing recruits from Palestinian, Syrian, and broader Arab networks. Once the dust settled, more than 400 people were dead, and the 30,000 residents of Nahr-Bared were displaced for a second time. The very same conditions that led to the Nahr al-Bared clash are reassembling now, The post Abandoned and Ungoverned: Lebanon’s Palestinian and Syrian Populations and the Emerging Radicalization Landscape appeared first on War on the Rocks.

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Economic Fury and Claims of Victory

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThree weeks since a ceasefire took effect, the United States and Iran have shifted from open hostilities to unsuccessful negotiations to economic brinksmanship. The Trump administration has been squeezing Tehran on two parallel fronts: A naval blockade physically subduing its maritime trade, complemented by increasing sanctions pressure against its oil and banking networks. The Iranian government was already in a weak financial position before the war, so additional sanctions as part of what the U.S. The post Economic Fury and Claims of Victory appeared first on War on the Rocks.

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