Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks with Structured Shrinkage Priors for Modelling Multimorbidity Trajectories in Large-Scale Electronic Health Records

Multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) arise through complex, time-dependent interactions among diseases, yet existing methods often struggle to jointly model disease progression, multimorbidity networks, and high-dimensional risk factors.

We propose a structured Bayesian continuous-time Bayesian network (CTBN) framework for learning directed disease-dependency networks from longitudinal electronic health records.

The model allows disease transition intensities to depend on existing conditions, pairwise disease interactions, and exogenous covariates.

To control the combinatorial growth of interaction parameters, we introduce order-dependent shrinkage priors that increasingly penalise higher-order effects while preserving clinically interpretable main effects.

We compare four sparsity-inducing priors, spike-and-slab, structured normal, Bayesian LASSO, and regularised horseshoe through extensive simulation studies.

Across multiple data-generating scenarios, the spike-and-slab prior achieved the best network recovery, variable-selection accuracy, and false-discovery control, while continuous shrinkage priors were less effective for hard variable selection.

The proposed framework was applied to UK Biobank primary care records, focusing on data from 33,558 participants who were free of the ten selected most prevalent conditions at age 40 and who subsequently developed at least one of these conditions during the follow-up period.

The selected spike-and-slab model identified two dominant disease modules: a cardiometabolic cluster centred on diabetes and an inflammatory cluster linking respiratory and atopic conditions.