ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks

Statistics > Machine Learning [Submitted on 12 May 2026 (v1), last revised 30 May 2026 (this version, v2)] Title:ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand is served from inventory or recorded as backlog and triggers replenishment throughout the network. The state tracks inventory, outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, yielding Markovian dynamics on a tractable state space. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, while three conservation laws provide verification tools for simulator extensions. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$), six scenario sweeps, and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations. These datasets exhibit dynamics largely absent from fixed TSF benchmarks, including variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, and Lag-Llama) yields MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmark suites. The same models provide forecast confidence bands through Latin-hypercube perturbations of demand-side parameters, enabling forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) unavailable on standard TSF datasets and demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for digital-twin-based UQ. Code (MIT): this https URL. Interactive demo: this https URL. Submission history From: Hyemin Gu [view email][v1] Tue, 12 May 2026 21:31:32 UTC (2,379 KB) [v2] Sat, 30 May 2026 21:21:14 UTC (2,485 KB) Current browse context: stat.ML References & Citations Loading... Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Recommenders and Search Tools Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.