TCS' next growth phase hinges on AI investments, not just deal momentum

ET Intelligence Group: The performance of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) in the June 2026 quarter was on expected lines with sequentially flat dollar revenue, margin contraction and sustained order flow.Amid top line deceleration, the country's largest software exporter has been reporting traction in new contracts involving solutions based on artificial intelligence (AI) platforms.

However, AI revenue currently forms only a small portion of the total revenue.

To improve client engagement in a fast-evolving technology landscape, it needs to scale up rapidly thereby requiring higher capital investments.

If this has to happen without burdening the balance sheet, it requires a relook at the current policy of returning cash to investors.132300650TCS reported a double-digit sequential growth of 13.6% in annualised AI revenue, even though annualised total revenue in the June quarter failed to increase.

To be sure, at $2.6 billion, AI revenue accounts for just about 8.5% of total annualised revenue of $30.5 billion, implying that it has a long way to go before AI initiatives start contributing meaningfully without affecting overall operating margins.

This may require greater investments in AI capabilities and partnerships.In this backdrop, the company needs to revisit its liberal dividend policy.

It paid ₹39,571 crore in dividends in FY26 while generating an estimated ₹47,288 crore in free cash flow (FCF), which is operating cash flow net of capital expenditure.

In the previous three years, dividends ranged between ₹44,962 crore and ₹46,223 crore, while FCF was between ₹41,440 crore and ₹46,449 crore.

This shows that it has been returning the majority of free cash to shareholders.

While it may be a suitable option for a mature business such as consumer goods, a company such as TCS that caters to client requirements shaped by tectonic shifts in technology will need to divert internal accruals to invest for future growth.

The dividend yield at present is over five considering the FY26 dividend, buoyed by a sharp 36% fall in the TCS stock price in 2026 so far.

Historically, it has remained under three.

For the June quarter, the company has declared an interim dividend of ₹12.Amid slower revenue growth, continued momentum in fresh orders may offer some solace.

TCS clocked $9.5 billion in total contract value orders bagged during the June quarter, in line with the $9-10 billion range seen during the past few quarters.

Its employee attrition rate remained stable sequentially at 13.6%.

Its headcount expanded sequentially for the second straight quarter, this time by 9,279 to 5.9 lakh.

These factors offer hope for long term growth amid short-term uncertainty. ...