An Exact Distribution-Free Test for Means of Nonnegative Random Variables

Let $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ be independent nonnegative random variables, not necessarily identically distributed.

Let $D=(D_0,D_1,\ldots,D_n)\sim\operatorname{Dir}(1,\ldots,1)$ be independent of $X$, and define $K(x)=\mathbb{P}\{\sum_{i=1}^n x_iD_i\le1\}$.

We prove that, for every $n\ge1$, whenever $\mathbb{E} X_i\le1$ for every $i$, $\mathbb{P}\{K(X)\le\alpha\}\le\alpha$ for all $0\le\alpha\le1$.

Thus $K(X)$ is a finite-sample, distribution-free $p$-value for testing the null hypothesis $\mathbb{E}X_i \le 1$ for all $i$.

This proves a conjecture of Gaffke (2005).