Ukraine: Calibration Assessment Round 4 (2026) - Key Findings from Prioritised Frontline Oblasts, May 2026

Country: Ukraine

Source: REACH Initiative

Please refer to the attached file.

Context and Rationale

More than four years after the escalation of the full-scale war in Ukraine¹, the humanitarian situation across the country remains severe, with needs persisting among large segments of the population². Over time, the crisis has increasingly shifted from an acute emergency towards a more protracted and entrenched humanitarian context, as prolonged displacement³, repeated disruptions to essential services, and continued insecurity have increasingly shaped the living conditions of affected populations.⁴ While humanitarian needs have remained consistently high, their nature and underlying drivers have continued to evolve over time, reflecting the long-term consequences of a prolonged conflict and the growing strain on households and communities across Ukraine⁵.

In the lead-up to the 2025-2026 winter season, Ukraine witnessed an intensification of repeated attacks targeting civilian and critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, schools, healthcare facilities, and other essential public infrastructure⁶. During the winter period, these sustained attacks resulted in a significant loss of electricity generation capacity across the country, leading to widespread planned and unplanned power outages, alongside disruptions to other essential utility services such as heating and water supply⁷. Combined with low temperatures, these disruptions further exacerbated humanitarian needs among affected populations, especially energy-related vulnerabilities across Ukraine.

To monitor the evolution of humanitarian needs during the winter period, REACH Ukraine conducted the fourth round of the Calibration Assessment between January and February 2026. The assessment aimed to provide a mid-year update to the findings of the 2025 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA)⁸ conducted in June and July, collecting updated information on humanitarian needs, reported challenges, and barriers faced by conflict-affected population, informing the humanitarian response. The assessment sought to support an understanding of how humanitarian and sectoral needs evolved over the course of the year, particularly in the context of seasonal shift and winter-related vulnerabilities. The ongoing consequences of the crisis continued to disproportionately affect frontline areas⁹, where active hostilities, insecurity, displacement, and damage to civilian infrastructure remained most severe.¹⁰ In line with this, one of the key priorities outlined in the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) focused on populations residing close to the frontline. The HNRP identified approximately 3.1 million people in need of humanitarian assistance for the frontline response.¹¹ In addition, f indings from the 2025 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment (MSNA) further confirmed that both the prevalence and severity of unmet humanitarian needs correlated with proximity to the frontline, with about more than a quarter of households residing in frontline oblasts classified as being in extreme need ¹². Additionally, anticipated seasonal challenges in living conditions and exacerbation of winter-related vulnerabilities contributed to an estimated 1.7 million people being targeted for winterisation assistance during the 2025-2026 winter season.

This factsheet provides an overview of humanitarian conditions in the prioritized frontline areas identified in the 2026 HNRP. It presents selected humanitarian indicators across eight frontline oblasts: Chernihivska, Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Sumska, and Zaporizka oblasts. Although Odeska Oblast is classified as a frontline oblast under the methodological framework, it was not included in this output because the oblast falls almost entirely within the “beyond 50 kilometres from the frontline” zone. The prioritization for this analysis focused on oblasts that also included areas located within 0 to 50 kilometres from the frontline, in order to better reflect needs among populations living in areas prioritised under the HNRP strategic focus on the most vulnerable close to the frontline. ...