Nonparametric Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models

Combining field data and computer models is a crucial step for making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems.

We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for calibrating the distribution of parameters in a computer model using field observations.

Our results include establishing; a unique nonparametric Bayesian posterior corresponding to a chosen prior with an explicit formula for the posterior density; a maximum entropy property of the posterior corresponding to the uniform prior; the almost everywhere continuity of the posterior density; and a comprehensive statistical analysis of an estimator based on importance sampling.

They also include establishing the well-posedness of the nonparametric Bayesian solution of the calibration problem.

We illustrate the results using several examples.