Will SpaceX factor last after IPO? Mega listing plan sparks valuation debate amid AI boom

Few IPOs in recent years have been as avidly anticipated and sparked as much debate as rocket and artificial intelligence (AI) company SpaceX’s blockbuster issue.

As the Elon Musk-founded company gears up for listing on Friday after attracting record investor bids for its roughly $75 billion IPO, the largest ever, the discussion extends beyond the stock’s debut.Investors are asking whether it will validate the torrent of money that has flowed into AI-linked companies and prolong Wall Street’s dream bull run or serve as a signal that market optimism has reached its peak.

Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion issue in 2019 was the largest IPO before this.131671438Stress TestThe 555.6-million-share IPO of SpaceX was subscribed more than four times on Wednesday night.

The bids underscore investor appetite for the hottest investment theme currently, AI, allowing SpaceX to target an eye-popping $1.75 trillion valuation on debut, turning it instantly into one of the world’s most valuable companies.The valuation target, along with the company’s losses and questions over corporate governance, has led to heightened scepticism about the stock’s prospects, with veteran short seller Jim Chanos warning the offering does not justify the astronomical valuation.SpaceX posted revenue of $18.67 billion in 2025, up 33% from the previous year, along with a net loss of $4.94 billion.To be sure, it’s also some kind of a referendum on Musk.To his dedicated fanbase, Musk can do no wrong.

Naysayers warn investors against getting swept up in the general euphoria of a listing pop lest they be left holding the pieces down the line.Beyond the scale, SpaceX’s listing has greater significance for global markets riding the AI wave.

It’s a stress test of market appetite for the high-growth, capital-intensive AI theme as equity supply risks are set to rise.

It will also signal how much tolerance investors have for losses posted by some stars of the AI firmament.“There is also a psychological element to the supply-demand picture with SpaceX,” BNP Paribas Securities analysts wrote in a recent client note.

“Many investors will likely anticipate that the deal size is only the tip of a supply iceberg.”OpenAI and rival Anthropic recently made confidential filings for mega IPOs, seeking to capitalise on the voracious investor demand for AI-linked shares.

Both these companies may be targeting trillion-dollar valuations.“Follow-on issuance and stock lock-ups expiring plus possible IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic collectively amount to much more equity supply,” said the BNP note.For seasoned investors, a likely glut of AI-linked IPOs and share sales evokes memories of the dotcom boom.

At that time, investors snapped up shares at astounding prices, ignoring losses and the absence of viable business models.As comparisons with previous market bubbles resurface, so too has the familiar refrain that “this time is different” with proponents arguing that the scale of investment flowing into AI and its growing commercial adoption set the current boom apart from past ones. ...