Meeting Uncertain Threats with Feedback

Air and missile defense, naval force protection, and critical-infrastructure security require rapid allocation of scarce effectors against multiple incoming threats when neutralization is uncertain and observed only after a firing round.

We formulate this defensive-allocation problem as a Markov decision process in which a commander assigns a fixed amount of effector capacity each round to heterogeneous threats under three operational objectives: minimizing expected threat-clearance time, maximizing the probability of clearance by a deadline, and maximizing effective assignments before a deadline.

Rather than expensive full dynamic optimization, we study simple time-oblivious policies suited to fast implementation.

Fair allocation, which ignores threat difficulty and spreads fire evenly, is highly effective: it is optimal for all three objectives under homogeneous threats or low-capacity engagements.

Moreover, when effector capacity scales at least linearly with the number of threats, its threat-clearance time trails that of the optimal policy by at most a constant number of rounds.

We further develop threat-difficulty-aware greedy policies for each objective, including a constant-factor guarantee for effective assignment maximization.

Numerically, greedy policies are near-optimal across heterogeneous instances, while fair allocation remains a principled choice when threat difficulties are unknown.