COMMENT: Indus Waters Treaty at a strategic crossroads — Part I

FOR more than sixty-five years, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has stood as one of the world’s renowned, most enduring and successful transboundary water-course division arrangements between two nation states.

Beyond its legal and international significance, it has also been the cornerstone of Pakistan’s water resources development.

The certainty and predictability of flows provided by the treaty enabled Pakistan to develop the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS); the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system, comprising three major reservoirs, six barrages, twelve inter-river link canals and an extensive distribution network that irrigates nearly 35 million acres and supports more than 90 per cent of the country’s food production.

Pakistan’s hydropower system, irrigated agriculture and much of its economic development have evolved on the foundation of uninterrupted and predictable flows from the western rivers. The treaty has also contributed significantly in the overall strategic stability of South Asia.

While the world looks to strengthen governance and transparency on shared river basins in pursuit of the ‘One Water-One Vision’ principle, India is moving entirely in the opposite direction

That strategic stability was fundamentally challenged in May 2025, when India illegally and unilaterally announced that it was holding the IWT in abeyance. The Indian move is being increasingly categorised as blatant violation of its binding treaty obligations, and international law.

In the recently concluded Water Convention under UN arrangements at Geneva, nation states have been asked to strengthen governance and transparency on shared river basins in pursuit of the “One Water-One Vision” principle.

India, on the contrary, is moving entirely in the opposite direction.

Regardless of the legal debate concerning the Indian decision, its strategic consequences for Pakistan are very serious. It marks a departure from more than six decades of treaty-based water cooperation and introduces uncertainty into a river system that guarantees Pakistan’s water, food and energy security.

Since May 2025, India has continued to accelerate the development of upstream infrastructure on the western rivers, while inviting bids for fast-track implementation of additional projects, including the planned expansion of Ranbir Canal and the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel.

Considered collectively, these developments can severely threaten Pakistan’s long-term water security.

India has also suspended sharing of hydrological data for the Western Rivers with Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, contrary to the data-sharing obligations envisaged under the IWT. During the 2025 flood season, the absence of timely river flow information adversely affected Pakistan’s flood forecasting and emergency preparedness, increasing risks to human life, critical infrastructure, and livelihoods.

Such actions are inconsistent with humanitarian principles, undermine international water-course cooperation and violate the fundamental objective of safeguarding populations from transboundary flood hazards. Moreover, Indian actions limit Pakistan’s ability of realising Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6.5, 6.5.1 and 6.5.2, which are globally shared objectives.

As a lower riparian state, Pakistan’s irrigation system, reservoirs, agriculture, growing population, and industrial development depend heavily on reliable and predictable river flows originating upstream. Any uncertainty in the quantity or timing of these flows presents a strategic challenge that extends far beyond conventional water management, directly affecting national water, food, energy, environmental, and economic security.

The geographical configuration of Indus Basin makes the reliability and predictability of flows in Chenab River indispensable for safe and efficient operation of IBIS. The non-availability of river flow data from upstream significantly weakens Pakistan’s ability to regulate canal diversions, manage floods, and issue timely warnings. In the event of extreme hydrological conditions, the absence of such information can endanger human lives, damage critical infrastructure, and increase economic losses.

Pakistan’s concern is frequently misunderstood: neither is it based upon any single dam, hydropower project or engineering structure, nor is it confined to the annual volume of water received under the Treaty.

The emerging challenge is the cumulative capability created by multiple upstream projects to increasingly regulate the quantity, timing and predictability of flows entering Pakistan. For a lower riparian country whose irrigation system, depends upon reliable river flows, this represents an existential challenge that extends well beyond conventional water management. Among the western rivers, Chenab occupies a uniquely critical position.

Carrying an average annual flow of 25 million acre-feet (MAF) at Marala, it irrigates nearly 10 million acres through the Marala, Khanki, Qadirabad, Trimmu and Punjnad Barrages. These command areas constitute one of Pakistan’s most productive agricultural regions, contributing significantly to national production of wheat, rice, sugarcane and other strategic crops while supporting millions of rural livelihoods.

More importantly, the River Chenab forms an integral and vital component of the interconnected Indus Basin Irrigation System. Reservoirs, barrages, link canals and irrigation canals across the basin operate as one coordinated hydraulic network. Consequently, any sustained alteration in the quantity or timing of Chenab flows extends well beyond its immediate command area, influencing canal regulation and irrigation supplies across the wider basin.

The strategic significance of Chenab is further amplified by geography. Almost the entire catchment of this river lies upstream in India before it enters Pakistan at Marala. Unlike rivers receiving substantial downstream tributary inflows, Pakistan has limited capacity to offset prolonged upstream regulation through additional local runoff. This geographical reality makes the reliability and predictability of Chenab flows indispensable for maintaining the operational stability of the Indus Basin Irrigation System.

The writer is currently serving as chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority. The second and concluding part of this article will be published tomorrow (Tuesday).

Published in Dawn, July 6th, 2026 ...