Can One Nation break through the glass ceiling to the majors?

ALBURY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 09: One Nation supporters celebrate as their party wins the Farrer by-election on May 9, 2026 in Albury, Australia.

The May 9 contest, triggered by Sussan Ley's resignation after being ousted as Liberal leader by Angus Taylor in February, has since evolved into a rare four-cornered race between the Liberals, the Nationals, an independent and One Nation — with polling suggesting the minor party could secure as much as 29 percent of the primary vote in the sprawling rural electorate.

(Photo by Jesse Thompson/Getty Images) ...