Mike Johnson's government funding gambit

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to hold a conspicuously early vote on a short-term funding bill next week — more than two months before the government runs out of money.

Why it matters: Johnson may be setting himself up to win in September by losing in July.

A failed vote on a short-term spending stopgap could potentially strengthen the GOP leader's hand in another difficult challenge: securing $67 billion for the Pentagon to replenish its munitions through the reconciliation process, according to conservative lawmakers.

An early defeat on a continuing resolution would give Johnson a pretext to shoehorn a spending stopgap bill into a September reconciliation package.

Call it Reconciliation 3.0 Plus.

"The Dems know, 'OK, if we don't do the CR, we'll do it in a [reconciliation] bill," Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told Axios.

What we're watching: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) are on starkly different wavelengths when it comes to a third reconciliation package.

"You've got to think long and hard about this. It's a much easier proposition in the House," Thune said Thursday.

But pairing a continuing resolution with reconciliation could have two advantages. First, it makes it harder for House Republicans to oppose the package.

It would also present the Senate with a take-it-or-leave-it choice: accept the House reconciliation bill or share the blame for a government shutdown.

Zoom out: Republicans are increasingly worried about spending the final month of the midterm campaign defending a government shutdown.

House Republicans have little confidence Democrats will provide the votes needed to pass a funding extension.

The planned July vote is designed to put both Democrats and the Senate on notice that Republicans don't believe they can count on bipartisan support for a continuing resolution.

The other side: GOP senators are deeply skeptical about pivoting to a CR in July.

They want to give the regular appropriations process time to work. And they are aware that public talk of a stopgap measure risks undercutting bipartisan negotiations over full-year spending bills.

Driving the news: Johnson said Thursday he plans to bring a clean continuing resolution to the House floor next week before lawmakers leave for the August recess. (The Senate is scheduled to remain in session for two additional weeks.)

But there's little reason to believe it will pass.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) didn't rule out Democratic support for a clean CR but warned Republicans against taking a "my-way-or-the-highway approach."

Meanwhile, some conservatives are threatening to oppose any must-pass spending bill that doesn't include the SAVE America Act. Johnson told reporters he "hasn't decided" whether to attach the measure.

Between the lines: Conservatives have been pushing leaders to use reconciliation to fund parts of the government, and a failed CR vote could give Johnson political cover with frustrated appropriators.

But the strategy has its detractors.

"I've heard it talked about, and I think it's a bad idea," Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), an Appropriations Committee member, told Axios last month about using reconciliation for appropriations.

Yes, but: That entire strategy rests on Republicans actually passing a third reconciliation bill — a prospect about which many lawmakers remain skeptical.

The bottom line: Even if the continuing resolution fails, forcing the vote allows Johnson to argue that Republicans exhausted the normal appropriations process before turning to reconciliation. ...