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Trump vows U.S. will soon bomb Iran's Pickaxe Mountain

Axios
Trump vows U.S. will soon bomb Iran's Pickaxe Mountain

ONP Summary

President Trump publicly threatened 'many times over' retaliation for each U.S. soldier killed by Iran, directing military leadership to execute this policy. The threat followed a deadly weekend that killed three servicemembers, bringing total U.S. deaths to 17 since the March conflict began, as the U.S. continued airstrikes for its 10th consecutive night.

Progressive:Political pressure response — Trump's escalatory threat appears designed partly to manage public opinion about military casualties and response strategy.

Moderate:Escalation amid diplomacy — rising deaths drive military action, but both sides maintain rhetorical openness to talks.

Conservative:Resolute deterrence — Trump's commitment to forceful retaliation signals unwavering protection of U.S. military personnel.

President Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. military will bomb Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, a deep underground site that the U.S. and Israel suspect could be used for nuclear activity.

Why it matters: Trump's remarks, at the top of his meeting with the president of Lebanon at the White House, signaled that he is not interested in a ceasefire at the moment and is moving towards escalating the strikes on Iran.

What he's saying: "We'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon. There's not a thing they can do about it. You know, normally I wouldn't say that. If I thought they could do something about it, I would never say that. But we'll be hitting that area pretty soon, and very heavily," Trump said.

Trump said the U.S. thinks Iran "may have" stored centrifuges at the site but added, "We don't have it on record." Even if Iran did, "it doesn't mean anything unless they have the [nuclear] material." He said Iran does not.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Israel provided the U.S. with intelligence suggesting that Iran has moved thousands of centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain.

Yes, but: It is not clear whether the U.S. military has bombs that can penetrate the rock above the deep underground facility. Nevertheless, a U.S. strike could do damage to the site and block its entrance tunnels.

Driving the news: U.S. officials say Trump is nearing a fork in the Iran war, with two options he is considering.

Option 1: Pursue a new 10-day ceasefire aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators are urging him to do so.

Option 2: Launch a massive joint military campaign with Israel to try to force Tehran to capitulate.

State of play: Trump signaled on Tuesday he is leaning toward the second choice. He expressed no interest in restarting negotiations with Iran.

"They want to desperately meet, and until they're ready to meet in a meaningful way, we have no interest," he said.

Trump stressed the U.S. is "not finished at all" with the war. Iran, he said, hasn't "seen anything yet. We have been nice." ...

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