QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron

Autonomous systems under partial observability act on beliefs, not raw sensor events.

QANTIS treats the quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service in that loop: it receives a prior and an observation model, estimates the rare-event evidence term, and returns an ordinary posterior to a classical planner.

This paper asks whether that service can be reused across a sequential Tiger POMDP horizon on present IBM Heron hardware without corrupting the planner-facing posterior.

We answer with a controlled hardware case study rather than an end-to-end autonomy or wall-clock speedup claim.

The study compares no amplification, guarded Grover amplification, and all-step fixed-point amplification on the same trajectory, then checks whether the returned posterior would change the downstream action.

All-step FPAA preserves the Tiger posterior across the reported 8-step and 12-step primary runs, and the 20-step and 32-step controls remain inside the same operating band.

In every reported decision check, the hardware posterior and the exact Bayes posterior select the same immediate action.

Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation near zero and near one, while a rare-event sweep maps the logical sample-complexity envelope for one-in-a-million evidence.

The result is an operating envelope for a hardware-calibrated belief-update primitive, not a standalone hardware-advantage claim.