Tamagawa ratios and unbounded Selmer moments

We develop a framework to predict whether a family of Selmer groups has average size that is bounded or unbounded. Applying this framework to certain geometric families of abelian varieties over $\mathbb{Q}$, we give a conjectural characterization of which such families have $\ell$-Selmer groups of unbounded average size for a given prime $\ell$. In the case that the $\ell$-torsion Galois module is constant across the family, we show that our characterization is correct.
The key tool of our technique is the Greenberg--Wiles' formula, which expresses the ratio of the sizes of a Selmer group and the corresponding dual Selmer group as a product of local factors. This formula gives a purely local lower bound for the size of a Selmer group that we conjecture is close to sharp most of the time.